Bills opponent outlook: Cowboys history, statistics and more

Sep 15, 2019; Landover, MD, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) runs after a catch against the Washington Redskins during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports For the first time since 1996, …

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins — Sep 15, 2019; Landover, MD, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) runs after a catch against the Washington Redskins during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

For the first time since 1996, the Buffalo Bills are 8-3, and for the first time since 1994, they are playing football on Thanksgiving. Dallas has been a regular host of the Thanksgiving Day series since 1966, and the Cowboys have a rich history against the Buffalo Bills. It is one of the most anticipated games of Thanksgiving this year.

Here is everything that you need to know about the history of the Cowboys and Buffalo Bills, including their respective Thanksgiving Day stats:

The Bills and Cowboys first met on September 17, 1971, in Buffalo. The Cowboys won that game 49-37.
They met in two Superbowls, 27 and 28, with Dallas winning both encounters.
Their most recent encounter took place on December 27, 2015, and the Bills won that encounter 16 – 6.
The Cowboys lead the all-time series, including the two Super Bowl games, 8 games to 4 and have outscored Buffalo 280-181 over those 12 encounters.
The Cowboys played their first Thanksgiving Day game on November 24, 1966, defeating the Cleveland Browns 26-14.
Dallas would hold that tradition annually, with the exception of 1975 and 1977, in an effort to help out the St. Louis (Arizona) Cardinals boost stadium ticket sales.
Dallas is 31-18-1 on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo started playing Thanksgiving Day games while in the AFL. They played their first against the New York Titans (Jets) in a 21-14 loss.
The modern iteration of the Buffalo Bills have never hosted a Thanksgiving Day game, but played in five during their AFL years when no team had that home game guaranteed.
The Bills are 3-4-1 on Thanksgiving.

2019 So Far

Coming off of a 10-6 season and winning the NFC East for the second time in three years, the Cowboys are having a interesting year to say the least. Dallas lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to the Los Angeles Rams, and there were very high expectations coming into this season.

The Cowboys are currently 6-5, narrowly sitting atop the NFC East with Philadelphia only one game back at 5-6. As close as the race for the NFC East has been, both Philadelphia and Dallas are not being viewed as very competitive amongst the entire NFL, and are currently the worst team by record in the NFC Playoffs. A rather disappointing year that has many of the Dallas fan base calling for Jason Garrett’s removal as head coach, again.

2019 has been rocky from the start, as star running back Ezekiel Elliott held out for a bigger contract, a few years short of the expiration of his rookie deal. Considering the workload that has been put on “Zeke” over his very young NFL career, it was relatively fair, considering the toll that running back’s endure. However, the hold out led to some awkward moments and uncomfortable statements between Owner Jerry Jones and Elliott.

Also, a looming question heading into 2019 was quarterback Dak Prescott’s contract situation. Prescott has played relatively well in his tenure, sporting a 38-21 record as a starter with 14,309 yards passing, 88 touchdowns and 35 interceptions. He will most likely be extended with Dallas, as he’s given stability at his position that the Cowboys didn’t have during the latter years of Tony Romo’s career. Whether or not Dak has performed well in clutch moments, has been the question of his biggest detractors, and that is an area that he has lacked in.

Dallas began the season with three straight wins, defeating the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins. A great start, and Dallas looked like a top tier team and a definite Super Bowl contender, granted the strength of schedule. Prescott was having some of his best numbers, and the team, as a unit, was a well oiled machine.

However, it was the three games after that win streak that gave the Cowboys a stigma for 2019 that they “couldn’t beat good teams”. Losing to the New Orleans Saints 10-12, Green Bay Packers 24-34, and even a massive upset by the New York Jets, left Dallas feeling like an average team that couldn’t compete against the class of the division.

Since then, they’ve defeated the Eagles 37-10, completed the sweep of the Giants by winning 37-18, lost to the Minnesota Vikings 24-28, beat Detroit 35-27 and fell to the New England Patriots 9-13.

Dallas currently ranks first in “Team Offense” earning 4,767 yards over their first 11 games. They are the number one passing offense as well, with 3,339 passing yards. They are the eighth ranked rushing offense with 1,428 rushing yards, nearly 1,000 yards behind the Baltimore Ravens who sit at first.

Dak is currently the number one passer in the NFL, with 3,433 yards passing, tied at fourth in passing touchdowns with Kirk Cousins at 21 and tied for fifth in interceptions at 10 with Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

“Zeke” is ranked seventh in rushing with 919 yards on the ground and tied at seven rushing touchdowns with Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley and Bills QB Josh Allen. Dak Prescott has 197 rushing yards to his credit, good enough for 60th in the NFL, as well as three rushing touchdowns of his own.

Amari Cooper comes in at sixth in receiving, amassing 886 yards and he’s tied for fifth with touchdown receptions, at seven. Michael Gallup is the next best receiver, sitting at 21st in the NFL with 733 receiving yards. Randall Cobb at 39th with 581 yards.

As a defense, Dallas sits sixth in the NFL, allowing 3,503 yards against them and the seventh most points scored against them at 210. They are sixth in passing defense, giving up 2,350 yards by air and 12 touchdowns. The weakest aspect of their defense is against the rush, with 1,153 yards ran against them, good enough for 15th in the NFL.

How they match up with Buffalo?

There is certainly some intrigue with this game. Both Dallas and Buffalo are teams with stigmas. They can beat who they are supposed to beat, but can’t get the job done against winning teams. It rings true, as Dallas has not yet defeated a team with a winning record as of Week 13. The only team that Buffalo has defeated with a winning record currently, is the Tennessee Titans.

The Bills rush defense is at great risk this week, although it has improved the last few weeks. Ezekiel Elliott is one of the best running backs in the game, and an excellent pass-catching back. We all watched the defense that New England brought forth on Dallas last week, limiting the best passing offense to no touchdowns. The Bills have a tough defense as well, and it will be interesting to see if the Bills can duplicate or come close to New England’s performance.

Offensively, the Bills moved the ball effectively against Denver, who is ranked in the Top 10. Smart, calculated football to keep moving the chains with more usage for Singletary and Gore. The Cowboys weak rush defense should be a target for Buffalo in this game. Also, Cole Beasley is making his big return to the team where he had spent many years at. Beasley was excellent in the short to mid-range passing game last week, and it would be a good idea to continue to build off of that.

The Cowboys obviously have home field advantage on their side, and that typically bodes well with teams on short weeks. Traveling teams are 5-7 on the year, which aren’t terrible odds for the Bills.

Enjoy this game, and the other two throughout the day, with family and friends, the best way to enjoy football. Happy Thanksgiving from myself and the rest of the Billswire staff to you and yours!

4 NFC East games should be blowouts in Week 13, Cowboys-Bills included

The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown over the 8-3 Bills, and the advanced stats say that may not even be enough

The bye weeks are over and half of the league’s divisional races are all but decided. One such race that is far from over, however, is the NFC East.

The Dallas Cowboys currently sit as the favorites, with a 64% chance to win their second consecutive division title, per FiveThirtyEight. The Philadelphia Eagles are just a game behind, and could match the Cowboys win total with a victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. That is, unless the Cowboys take down the 8-3 Buffalo Bills.

Dallas comes in to Thursday afternoon as 6.5 point favorites despite two fewer wins than Buffalo has on the year. On the surface that may seem strange, but the underlying numbers all heavily favor the Cowboys, especially statistics rooted in Expected Points.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

Earlier this week, we released an opponent adjusted version of our EPA power ranks. And nobody was hit harder by the opponent adjustment than the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo goes from a top-10 team to a bottom-10 team after adjusting for strength of schedule. No other team comes close to that kind of a change. So when you see the 6-5 Cowboys favored by a touchdown against an 8-3 team, there’s your reason.

We can take these adjustments one step further and apply them to upcoming games to see how Dallas’ offense matches up against Buffalo’s defense, and vice versa. This, along with a variable added to account for home field advantage, gives Dallas an even greater advantage by my model. Here’s how the model sees each NFC East game shaking out this week:

My model sees Dallas as double-digit favorites this week at home. I’m not suggesting you go put all your money on the Cowboys to cover, but you should feel confident that they won’t ruin your Thanksgiving dinner this year. The Bills’ strength on defense is in the passing game, while their run defense is the second worst in the NFL by my measure.

The Cowboys’ passing offense has torn apart every opponent this season, save for the monsoon game in New England, so while this game is ripe for a big Ezekiel Elliott outing, I wouldn’t fear this Bills secondary enough to take passes away from Dak Prescott.

These predictions also account for quarterback play, which is the main reason Carolina is favored by so much. Dwayne Haskins did get his first career win last week, but his numbers are still in the basement of the NFL.

Of the 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in 2019, Haskins ranks 40th in average EPA. Only recently benched Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley has been worse on a per-play basis. This prediction is less a praising of the Panthers and more an indictment of Washington’s play this season.

Philadelphia is coming off of a stinker of a game against Seattle, where they turned the ball over four times and didn’t get into the endzone until the final seconds of the game. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, having played five teams in the top 10 in adjusted EPA differential, which is why they still sit at 11th in our ranks. The fact that this one is in Miami is really the only reason this isn’t the largest spread of the week.

Last but not least is the New York Giants.

Green Bay is coming off of an absolute beating at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, but that doesn’t mean they’re a bad team. It more solidified the fact that San Francisco, New England, and Baltimore are in a class of their own this year. On the other side, Daniel Jones is sitting at 37th in EPA/dropback, largely due to some costly sacks. No team has lost more EPA on sacks this year than the Giants. On plays where the quarterback is sacked, the Giants offense leads the league in fumbles, lost fumbles, and touchdowns given up to the defense.

The Cowboys are the only NFC East team to play on Thursday, and if it follows along with what the advanced stats are telling us, this should be a somewhat stress-free Thanksgiving for Cowboys fans.

They’ll need it too, if they want to keep up their advantage in the playoff race in these final weeks of the season.

NFL Thanksgiving best bets extravaganza

There are seven bets for three games on Thanksgiving.

Most people who read the weekly best bets know my rules. One of the rules is don’t just bet to bet. Another rule is don’t bet every game because it’s impossible to make money. Well, there is one day — in the regular season since we have to bet every playoff game that is an exception to that rule and that’s Thanksgiving day. There’s nothing better than waking up with a wager on the early game followed by constantly checking your phone during the Thanksgiving meal — insert drunk Uncle joke here because everyone makes one. The obvious next move is to fade in and out of sleep in the afternoon watching football on the couch and moving to a nice adult beverage and the night game to wrap up a beautiful football filled Thursday.

As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.

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Josh Allen explains why Patriots loss helped improve his game

Bills quarterback Josh Allen tossed his first interception in five games in a 20-3 win over the Denver Broncos last week.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen tossed his first interception in five games in a 20-3 win over the Denver Broncos last week. That’s a significant drop off from the early-season pace he set for himself.

In the Bills’ first four games, Allen tossed six interceptions and seven in his first five games. So what gives? What’s different?

That fourth game is the key, Allen said on Tuesday.

In that outing, Buffalo fell 16-10 to the Patriots. A close game, despite Allen turning the ball over four times, including three interceptions. The second-year QB said that was the key in unlocking some safer football in his game.

“It’s crazy to say it, but probably after the Patriots game. It was one of those games that obviously wasn’t pretty, but I think it was necessary for growth and for development there, and understanding what I can and can’t do on a football field,” Allen said. “I think after that week I just kind of thought to myself, ‘I need to be better. I need to do things different.’”

Since then, it wasn’t all gravy for Allen and the Bills offense. He still doesn’t put up massive passing numbers and he still had some yips in regard to fumbling the ball. But is Allen turning a corner there, too? With a fumble-less game on Thursday against the Cowboys, it will be the first time in his young career he’s gone three-straight games without fumbling.

If he reaches that milestone, he’ll do so on the national stage, too. Simply playing a game on primetime is something he’s never done in his young career, either. No big deal, he says.

“I don’t really think it’s different from any other game that we’ve played,” Allen said. “We’re going out there and we’re playing football how we know how to play. I’m going to trust the game plan that we put in, and just try to play like we’ve been playing the last few weeks.”

In regard to his QB potentially taking a step, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott said it’s rare a quarterback steps right in and has “it.” They have to learn on that job, and he sees Allen doing just that.

“That’s natural, that progression. Very few times do you come in and everyone’s got it just from the start. Josh has done just a heck of a job at just staying resilent, adjusting, growing, devloping. That’s what you want to see from young players, and in this case, from our quarterback,” McDermott told WGR-550 Radio on Wednesday. “He’s played extremely well over the course of the last few weeks. We have a lot of confidence in Josh.”

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5 storylines to follow during Bills at Cowboys

The Bills visit the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday for a Thanksgiving Day meeting. It’s the first time in about 25 seasons that the Bills have had the national spotlight on them while turkey was being served.

Short week, big week.

The winner will add to their win total against a winning team for the first time after the one, too. Something neither has done to this point in 2019, despite their winning ways.

With that, here are five storylines to follow during Thursday’s Bills meeting with the Cowboys:

Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

How do Bills play under circumstances?

The Bills have a big test against the Cowboys. They’re a good team, yes. But it’s the festivities outside the game that are much, much different for Buffalo. The Bills haven’t played on Thanksgiving in a long, long time, as mentioned. That’s different for them. In this scenario, the Cowboys play each and every season on the holiday. They don’t answer questions in the locker room about playing during during it this week. Their locker room is used to it.

In addition, just… in general, the Bills don’t often play outside of 1 p.m. In fact, they haven’t done so since last season. The Cowboys on the other hand? This is America’s team, folks. They’ve played on Sunday Night Football three times, Monday Night Football once and had 4 p.m. kickoffs four times. In fact, playing at 1 p.m. is actually weird for them, they’ve only done that three times.

Thanksgiving Day is much bigger for the Bills. Sean McDermott has to get his team ready for it.

The ball goes through Amari Cooper’s hands and its Patriots ball pic.twitter.com/a3AuJxO4xL

— Eric Rosenthal (@ericsports) November 25, 2019

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NFC Playoff picture heading into Week 13

The races for all of the divisions outside of the NFC South are heating up. The Cowboys and Eagles both have shots at winning the East. The Packers and Vikings have the same record and a game against each other. The Seahawks won’t go away even as the Niners continue to dominate every opponent — outside of Seattle. Of course, the wild card race is kind of finished since the Seahawks and Vikings are probably locked in.

(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 6-5

Dallas is suffering from their coaching and not their talent. Now they enter a pretty tough stretch of their schedule starting with a Thanksgiving matchup against the Bills on short rest. The Week 16 game against the Eagles could end up deciding which team takes the east.

Remaining Games: Bills, @Bears, Rams, @Eagles, Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles 5-6

Philadelphia has been disappointing up until this point of the season. Now they get a stretch where they face some of the worst teams in the league. The Eagles may be thin at wide receiver and offensive line but they should still win games against the Dolphins, Giants and Redskins.

Remaining Games: @Dolphins, Giants, @Redskins, Cowboys, @Giants

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Bills at Cowboys: Tuesday injury reports

Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys injury reports from Tuesday ahead of their Week 13 meeting on Thanksgiving.

Here are the Tuesday injury reports for the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys ahead of their Thursday meeting in Week 13 at AT&T Stadium:

Buffalo Bills (8-3)

Did not practice

OL Ty Nsekhe (ankle)

Limited

WR Robert Foster (hamstring)
OL Mitch Morse (hand)

Notes:

Robert Foster exited Week 12 vs. the Broncos after he pulled up with a hamstring injury, he was limited on Tuesday after not practicing on Monday. … Mitch Morse Mitch Morse also exited the game but was on the sideline after leaving the game. … Ty Nsekhe will likely not play for the Bills once again after being labeled a “week-to-week” player by head coach Sean McDermott.

Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

Did not practice

LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck)
DT Antwaun Woods (knee)

Limited

OL La’el Collins (knee/ back)
S Jeff Heath (shoulder)
OL Zack Martin (back/ ankle/ elbow)
OL Connor Williams (knee)

Notes:

La’el Collins, Zack Martin and Connor Williams are part of the Cowboys first-team offensive line, but all played in Week 12 vs. the Patriots. … Both Leighton Vander Esch and Amtwaun Woods are not expected to play vs. the Bills.

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Cole Beasley admits he wants to beat Cowboys ‘a little more’

Buffalo Bills WR Cole Beasley discusses facing his former team, the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Cole Beasley revenge game?

The Bills wide receiver certainly downplayed the heck out of his return home on Thanksgiving Day.

The Texas native that also played seven season with the Cowboys after cracking their roster after starting his career as an undrafted rookie said playing his former team hasn’t been a big part of where his mind is at.

“I haven’t really thought about it. I’ve been happy here. Just kind of been focused more on what we’ve been doing here. So I haven’t really thought about it,” Beasley told reporters on Wednesday.

If taking anything, Beasley only took an inch.

Facing his former team makes his radar blip, even if it’s ever so faintly.

“There’s a part of you that wants to win it a little more… maybe, I guess… but I want to win them all,” Beasley said. “I won’t be talking any, like, serious [expletive] to ‘em but it will be some joking around, trash talking.”

Even so, Beasley is on track to play a nice part in Buffalo’s gameplan. In recent weeks, Beasley has heated up for the Bills and finally put it all together last week.

Beasley would score, but only notch a catch. Maybe two. Then he’d see several touches, but maybe no yards or scores. Last week Beasley had six catches for 76 yards with a score. That brought his season totals with the Bills to 49 catches, 525 yards and four touchdowns. His single-season career-high is five scores in a year, something he can match against his former team.

Because of successes like that, Beasley holds Dallas in high regard still. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be using the word “miss” any time soon.

“There’s no ill-will or anything. I still think I made the right decision, it was the best move for me and I don’t regret it one bit,” Beasley said.

Beasley’s recent surge has his quarterback sounding positive about the chemistry they’ve built, too. Might want to keep an eye on No. 10 on Thursday.

“There’s not a lot of people that can cover him, to be honest,” Allen said.

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8 things to know about the Bills’ Week 13 opponent, the Cowboys

Eight things to know about the Buffalo Bills’ 2019 Week 13 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys.

It’s America’s team against North America’s team, a tale as old as… that one time Terrell Owens made that comment.

But the 2019 Bills will visit the Dallas Cowboys for a quick Thanksgiving Day turnaround, as the two teams meet in Texas for the holiday meeting.

Before diving into your own Thanksgiving-Bills feast, here are eight things to know about the Cowboys:

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett. Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Haven’t beaten a team with a winning record

The title says it all, it’s a criticism that both the Cowboys and Bills share. Both sides have played a relatively soft schedule and haven’t beaten teams with a winning record. The Bills only played the Patriots with a winning record this year and lost that one. The Cowboys have had a few chances at it, but still haven’t gotten that done.

The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road in New England and at the Lions and split those two. At home this season, the Cowboys are 3-2 overall, contributing to their 6-5 overall record. Dallas has beaten the likes of the Giants twice, Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles and Lions. Despite all that, they do lead the NFC East currently.

Since playing the Titans, for a bit of an asterisk on the Bills’ part, Tennessee has amassed a winning record at 6-5.

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Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch out vs. Bills

The Bills won’t be facing Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch on Thanksgiving, according to Jerry Jones.

The Cowboys owner chatted with 105.3 The Fan radio in Dallas on Tuesday and said he “doesn’t expect” the second-year pro to play in Thursday’s Week 13 game.

Vander Esch was previously labeled as a “week-to-week” injury by Dallas head coach Jason Garrett. He was the third linebacker selected at the 2018 NFL draft, behind the Bills’ Tremaine Edmunds.

He’s recorded 72 tackles, three passes defended and a forced fumble in nine games this season and missed last week’s 13-9 Cowboys loss vs. the Patriots due to the neck inflammation injury.

Vander Esch has had neck injury concerns dating back to his college days with Boise State.

Veteran Sean Lee will fill in for Vander Esch once again against the Bills.

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