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Spring football is just getting going, the transfer portal is still a factor, and we’re still several months away from the start of the college football season, but where should Vegas be setting the early win projections for every team?
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
The line doesn’t lie.
With a whole lot of factors still to be figured out – how the depth charts will shake out, which new players will rise up, where are the key injuries, etc. – where should the win total bar be set for every college football team?
The idea is to get it as close to the pin as possible, set the line for the market, and then let the investment public make the call.
Returning talent, schedules, when the big games come, here’s where the oddsmakers should be setting the win total lines. Once they’re released for real, then it’s about trying to find where the discrepancies are and where the value might be.
One note, the win total line projections are based on the regular season only – bowl games and conference championships don’t count.
As we do this, two things to note.
1) The 3 Key Games are NOT the biggest games on each team’s schedule – these are the 50/50 games on the slate that could go either way. Of course giant rivalry battles are the ones that truly matter, but for the most part, the Key Games are going to be the ones everyone has to figure out to get the right totals.
2) These are NOT our predictions for each team. Those will come this summer when we make a call. These are the projections of where we think the win total lines are going to be set.
Future Win Total Team Projections
ACC | AAC | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
IND | MAC | M-West | Pac-12 | SEC | Sun Belt
ACC Future Win Total Projections
ATLANTIC
Boston College
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 6
3 Key Games: 1) at Kansas, Sept. 19, 2) Syracuse, Sept. 4, 3) at Wake Forest, Nov. 28
– Schedule Analysis
Clemson
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 11
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 10.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 12
3 Key Games: 1) at Notre Dame, Nov. 7, 2) at Florida State, Oct. 10, 3) South Carolina, Nov. 28
– Schedule Analysis
Florida State
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 7.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 6
3 Key Games: 1) at Miami, Nov. 7, 2) at Boise State, Sept. 19, 3) at Louisville, Oct. 24
– Schedule Analysis
Louisville
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 7
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 6
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 7
3 Key Games: 1) NC State, Sept. 3, 2) Florida State, Oct. 24, 3) at Syracuse, Oct. 3
– Schedule Analysis
NC State
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 7.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 8.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 4
3 Key Games: 1) at Syracuse, Nov. 14, 2) at North Carolina, Nov. 27, 3) Mississippi State, Sept. 12
– Schedule Analysis
Syracuse
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 8.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 5
3 Key Games: 1) at Pitt, Nov. 28, 2) at Boston College, Sept. 4, 3) at Wake Forest, Nov. 7
– Schedule Analysis
Wake Forest
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 5.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 8
3 Key Games: 1) Appalachian State, Sept. 11, 2) at Duke, Oct. 3, 3) Boston College, Nov. 28
– Schedule Analysis
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COASTAL
Duke
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 6
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 5
3 Key Games: 1) at Georgia Tech, Nov. 7, 2) Wake Forest, Oct. 3, 3) North Carolina, Oct. 17
– Schedule Analysis
Georgia Tech
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 4
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 3
3 Key Games: 1) Duke, Nov. 7, 2) at Syracuse, Oct. 31, 3) Miami, Nov. 21
– Schedule Analysis
Miami
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 7.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 9
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 6
3 Key Games: 1) North Carolina, Oct. 24, 2) Florida State, Nov. 7, 3) at Virginia, Oct. 31
– Schedule Analysis
North Carolina
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 6.5
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 5.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 6
3 Key Games: 1) at Miami, Oct. 24, 2) NC State, Nov. 27, 3) Virginia Tech, Oct. 10
– Schedule Analysis
Pitt
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 7
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 6
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 7
3 Key Games: 1) Virginia Tech, Nov. 6, 2) at North Carolina, Nov. 14, 3) at Marshall, Sept. 12
– Schedule Analysis
Virginia
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 8
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 8
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 9
3 Key Games: 1) at Virginia Tech, Nov. 28, 2) Miami, Oct. 31, 3) Louisville, Nov. 7
– Schedule Analysis
Virginia Tech
2020 Future Win Total Projection: 8
2019 Spring Win Total Projection: 8.5
2019 Regular Season Win Total: 8
3 Key Games: 1) Penn State, Sept. 12, 2) at Louisville, Oct. 31, 3) Virginia, Nov. 28
– Schedule Analysis
Future Win Total Team Projections
ACC | AAC | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
IND | MAC | M-West | Pac-12 | SEC | Sun Belt
NEXT: American Athletic Conference Future Win Totals
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