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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Season Win Totals

Which college football win totals appear to be the best bets and strongest plays going into the 2022 season?

What win totals appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the 2022 college football season?

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– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Ahhhhh, the win totals. They’re the most fun of all the possible investments, giving you a season-long team or five to follow and care about.

There are a whole slew of factors going into figuring out the win totals. Obviously, the schedule is almost everything, but where are the 50/50 games that could and should go one way or another? How’s the backup quarterback situation in case disaster strikes? What are the smartest calls historically?

Check out our team-by team predictions for every game to go along with our 10 Best Win Total Predictions of 2022 – remembering that this is for the regular season only. Bowl games and conference championships aren’t a part of these.

Click on each team for the season preview

10. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State

Win Total 10.5 or 11 or 11.5
ATS PICK It depends

The “it depends” call isn’t a cop-out. It really does depend on where you’re finding the win total for the four powerhouses coming into 2022, because if you’re getting Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and/or Ohio State at 10.5 on Draft Kings, over is a solid call. If you’re getting those four – or any of them – at 11 elsewhere, you go under.

And if you get any of the four at 11.5, for the love of all things holy and true … UNDER, UNDER, UNDER. If a team goes 12-0 and you lose the under on 11.5, you tip your cap and move on.

It’s asking for way too much for any team to go unbeaten, so if you’re getting 11, going under will most likely come through, or at worst you should get a push. 10.5, though …

Clemson won nine regular season games last year without an offense. The D should be national title-good, the O will absolutely be better, and outside of the trip to Notre Dame, don’t expect to get this team as an underdog anywhere else.

Ohio State’s schedule isn’t a layup, but the talent level is so much stronger than everyone else in the Big Ten. Alabama losing two regular season games is always on outlier under Nick Saban, and don’t get into a twist over all of the lost talent at Georgia. The Dawgs aren’t going unbeaten, but it’ll take something big for them to lose twice.

And finally … the quarterbacks.

Forgive factoring in injuries – and how gross it is to potentially profit off the speculation of a guy getting hurt – but the backup quarterback situations aren’t as strong as they used to be at at Alabama and Ohio State in a transfer portal era. If Bryce Young or CJ Stroud go down for any stretch of time, it’s going to be a problem for the Tide or Buckeyes, respectively, to get to 11.

And then there’s the other side …

9. UConn, ULM, UMass

Win Total 2.5
ATS PICK Under on UMass and UConn, over on ULM

UConn might be better coached with Jim Mora Jr. taking over, and UMass will find a D under new head man Don Brown, but it’s going to be a major struggle for either to get to three wins.

UConn can beat Central Connecticut State, but the winnable FIU game is on the road. It’s going to be a double-digit underdog against everyone else, except at home against …

UMass should be able to beat Stony Brook, but that’s not a given. It can beat New Mexico State at home, but overall the Minuteman talent level needs to be night-and-day better to be anything less than a massive dog against everyone else.

Be a little more leery of ULM at 2.5. It should beat Nicholls State, and it can beat Texas State, but it’s going to take a big upset to get to three wins. There’s going to be one somewhere, but you’ll have to sweat it out.

So … the call is still under on both UMass and UConn, and like the over on ULM.

On to the 2.5 Power Five teams …

8. Arizona, Kansas, Vanderbilt

Win Total 2.5
ATS PICK Over

Just like it’s really, really hard for a superpower to go over on 11, it’s really, really hard for one of the also-ran Power Five programs to go under on 3.

I BEGGED my friends last year to go crazy on Kansas over on 1.5. It barely got by South Dakota, couldn’t get another win into mid-November, and then came the Texas Miracle – a 57-56 overtime victory.

Is Kansas going to be favored this year against any Big 12 team? No. Is it going to pull off an upset somewhere? Almost certainly. It’ll probably beat Tennessee Tech, and the home game against Duke is more 50/50 than you might think.

Is Vanderbilt going to win an SEC game? It didn’t last year, and it didn’t in 2020. However, it’ll beat Elon, it should at least split the road games against Hawaii and Northern Illinois – but it could win both and you’re cashing out in mid-September. You’re an SEC team, Vanderbilt – act like it.

Arizona is the one to really like at 2.5. It was in a total rebuild last year, but it played better than the 1-11 record would suggest – it couldn’t close. Yes, the lone win came over a Cal team decimated by COVID, but there’s talent help from the transfer portal, the overall play should be better, and …

Okay, there’s not a sure-thing win considering the opener is at San Diego State, Mississippi State is coming to Tucson, and you’re crazy to assume a win over North Dakota State. Go over anyway.

[lawrence-related id=548641]

7. North Carolina State

Win Total 8.5
ATS PICK Over

There’s a solid chance NC State is the second-best team in the ACC this season behind Clemson.

If everyone is healthy, the linebacking corps might be the best in the country, Devin Leary is a terrific veteran quarterback, and the schedule isn’t all that bad.

Factor in a loss at Clemson, and there will be at least one other defeat in the ACC, but the non-conference slate isn’t all that bad – even if you’re right to be scared of the opener at East Carolina and home date against Texas Tech.

Last year’s team got to nine wins, and this version is more talented and should be even better.

6. Louisiana Tech

Win Total 4.5
ATS PICK Over

The 2021 rebuilding year was blip for a program that hadn’t suffered a losing season since 2013. It went 3-9 last year – that’s about to change.

In comes new head coach Sonny Cumbie – who could’ve easily have been the head man at Texas Tech – and here comes the upgrade in offensive firepower.

The other key aspect is the loss of Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss from Conference USA to the Sun Belt. All of a sudden, the conference slate looks a whole lot easier, and the team is a whole lot better.

Think of it like this, there are three likely losses – at Missouri, at Clemson, at UTSA – and nine 50/50 games. The Bulldogs will win at least five of them.

Stephen F. Austin should be a win, but that’s not a total given. UTEP, Rice, at FIU, Middle Tennessee, at Charlotte, at North Texas, at Charlotte, UAB – any or all of those could be wins.

NEXT: No. 5 2022 Win Total Prediction

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 7. Big Time Big Ten Week

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 7?

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 7?

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Week 7 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 7 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 6 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 7 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

This column giveth, and when this thing taketh away it does so in spectacular burnout fashion.

I know better than to get cocky after a 9-1 run like I had two weeks ago, but last week was a brutal disaster. Now, in my defense, it took a whole lot of historical anomalies for it all to go the way it did.

Give me anyone who saw the Texas A&M offense doing that against Alabama. Not only did I miss that outright, but Florida State beat North Carolina as a 17-point dog.

That was nothing. USC had never lost to Utah in Southern California until last week.

I’m now 0-for-2 in the You’re An SEC Team, Act Like It calls with Missouri continuing the be an epic fail on defense – it didn’t cover against North Texas – and I whiffed by going under on Arkansas-Ole Miss and Maryland-Ohio State. And …

That’s it. The slide stops now with three themes. 1) Spite, 2) it’s Big Ten week, and 3) more spite.

Parts 1 & 3 begin with …

Results So Far ATS: 42-28-1

Click on each game for the preview

10. Ole Miss at Tennessee

LINE Point Total 83
ATS PICK Under

I’ll admit it – I got cute.

I have a hard and fast rule to never, ever, ever, ever, ever take the over on a point total of 80 or more. Too many things can go wrong, and the worst that can happen is that it actually does go over, and at least you got a blast of a game to watch.

That’s exactly what happened last week. I modified my rule to 66.5 when it came to Ole Miss and Arkansas. 66.5 isn’t 80, and those two crazy kids combined to annihilate the over in a 52-51 Rebel victory.

83 is over 80, and the point total came down from 85.5. Oh sure, it’s more fun to assume the two killer offenses will go off, but be warned, last week was the first time an Ole Miss game got past 82, and Tennessee only got there in a 62-24 win over Missouri.

That’s Spite, Part 1. Part 2 …

– CFN Week 6 Experts Picks: NFL

9. Miami at North Carolina

LINE North Carolina -7.5
ATS PICK Miami

I vowed last week after the disaster against Florida State that I would never, ever, ever, ever pick North Carolina to do anything right ever again.

I’m picking North Carolina.

I know, I shouldn’t be emotional about this, and I shouldn’t pick out of revenge, but it just seems like the Miami thing is about to implode.

D’Eriq King is out for the year, the D that gets its groove on the Turnover Chain has a pathetic four takeaways on the year, and if it’s possible to see an entire team collectively look like the drive-through forgot the fries, that last second upright-doink loss to Virginia was it.

That, and North Carolina appears to be one of those adjustment teams.

It didn’t get the O going against Virginia Tech, and then it ran the ball more effectively and blasted Georgia State and Virginia. The run D didn’t get off the bus against Georgia Tech, and then the team stopped Duke cold.

The run defense against Florida State was pathetic, and this week the offense will make up for it with well over 400 yards.

– Week 7 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews

8. TCU at Oklahoma

LINE Oklahoma -13.5
ATS PICK TCU

All the game predictions are done without looking at the lines – the goal is to not be influenced by them one way or another. Once in a while, though, it’s hard not to want to adjust the predicted score to fit what the narrative should probably be.

This week, that narrative is simple. Oklahoma found the right quarterback, the offense will play like it’s supposed to, and America is about to deal with the unleashed beast the devoured Texas in the second half of last week.

There’s that – now that Caleb Williams appears to be the main man for now – and there’s a TCU team that’s hammered by key injuries, including to QB Max Duggan.

So we did the preview and got to the final predicted score, and I kept wanting to change it to Oklahoma by a few touchdowns. There’s one problem with that.

Oklahoma has yet to beat any FBS team by more than seven points – it has yet to play a solid full 60 minutes against anyone but Western Carolina, and even then the game was over instantly.

Not Tulane, not West Virginia, not anyone. Granted, that was all with Spencer Rattler at the helm before Williams pulled the team out of the fire.

Combine that with a TCU team that doesn’t play a lick of D but keeps everything close, and the possible letdown factor after the emotion in Dallas, and 13.5 might be a bit too generous.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Tulsa at USF

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 6

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 6?

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 6?

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Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 6 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 5 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 6 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

I apologize for really and truly thinking Vanderbilt was going to act like the SEC program it is against UConn. Instead of it being a layup of a Commodore blowout, it took a late rally to survive 30-28 and not covering the 14.5

I failed you, America.

I promised you something special after going 4-6 in Week 4, and going 9-1 ATS isn’t good enough.

(Or, to move the dial off the snooty-brag setting, if you’ve followed me over the years you know this means the time for the HARD fade is soon to come.)

Pushing that boulder up the mountain again …

Results So Far ATS: 39-21-1

Click on each game for the preview

10. Arkansas at Ole Miss

LINE Point Total 66.5
ATS PICK Under

And it’ll probably get up to closer to 68 by gametime.

First, 66.5 is hard to get to, even for these two teams. Last year these two got the respective Os going and it still landed on 54.

Second, if you believe Arkansas is going to pull this off, it’ll probably do it controlling the game and tempo throughout.

No Hog game this year – even with 40 put up against Texas and 45 against Georgia Southern – got to 67. Three of the four Ole Miss games got past the mark, but the one that didn’t was against Alabama when the Rebels couldn’t stop the run.

Think of it this way. Georgia couldn’t have been better last week and it only got 37 on the Hogs.

– Week 5 NFL Expert Picks

9. Maryland at Ohio State

LINE Point Total 71
ATS PICK Under

The hard and fast rule is to never, ever take the over when the world is asking for 80, and that worked out just fine with the under on Ole Miss and Alabama last week – they got to 63.

But what about 72? Ehhhhhh, not close enough, but worth a shot here on the biggest point total of the day.

Maryland-Ohio State opened at 72.5 and dipped down a bit. No one likes to take the under on a major game that everyone will watch, but getting past 71 is a large ask.

If the game gets there, then blow off the loss, sit back, and enjoy the show.

Maryland might be improved, but it only hung up a big number on Howard. It’s not getting 62 on Ohio State, and the second-best scoring output was 67.

Yeah, some might have visions of the wild 52-51 Buckeye win in 2018, and the 31 allowed to Minnesota and 35 to Oregon is enough to worry. This will get into the 60s, but 72 is a push even for these two.

– Week 6 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Florida State at North Carolina

LINE North Carolina -17.5
ATS PICK North Carolina

Florida State was able to close out last year with a win over Duke, and it beat Jacksonville State along the way. The stunner for that awful, awful team was a 31-28 win over a North Carolina squad that did just about everything offensively but score more points than the other team.

That won’t be an issue this week.

The Tar Heels have been way flaky – hello, Georgia Tech 45, UNC 22 – but that wasn’t in Chapel Hill, and neither was the Virginia Tech game. They annihilated Georgia State, Virginia, and Duke, and now it’s a revenge game with FSU coning in.

Sam Howell will throw for over 300 yards getting off the bus.

Revenge Game Part 2 …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Michigan State at Rutgers

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 5

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5?

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5?

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Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 5 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 4 Experts Picks: NFL
– 10 Best Picks For A Parlay: Week 5

Results So Far ATS: 30-20-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

After a crazy Week 4 – and a nightmarish 4-6 run of picks – it’s time to recalibrate and get back to getting this right. It all starts with this …

Do you really believe? You’ll get the idea.

Click on each game for the preview

10. Arkansas at Georgia

LINE Georgia -18
ATS PICK Georgia

A host on one of the radio hits I did the other day asked a two-part question. Is Arkansas for real, and is Georgia actually good enough to cover this spread?

I answered a question with a question – making for riveting radio. Can both things be true?

I do believe in Arkansas. It’s not perfect, but it’s doing all the little things right, the defense is the real deal, and we have to start giving more respect to the good win over Texas as the season goes on.

But I’m starting to think Georgia might be the No. 1 team in college football, and I’ve said this over and over and over again over the last few days.

So do I really believe this? Yeah. Arkansas is just that good, but the Georgia defense is otherworldly. The Hogs could battle hard and still lose 27-6.

Yeah, I really believe that the 2021 season is on a collision course of Alabama vs. Georgia in an epic SEC Championship. So …

– Week 4 NFL Expert Picks

9. Ole Miss at Alabama

LINE Alabama -14
ATS PICK Alabama

Best of all, the money is coming thundering in on Ole Miss. The line started out at -17.5 and it’s down to -14 as there’s more and more buzz about this fantastic Rebel team and Heisman contender QB Matt Corral.

There’s one problem.

Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane. We’re supposed to crown Ole Miss for rolling in those three games?

This team’s a blast, Lane Kiffin is a blast, and Nick Saban’s head will explode if his team doesn’t pull off a win in this after screaming for weeks that it’s not doing all the little things right.

However, I’ll really believe in the Ole Miss defense when it really does come up with a meaningful stop against someone other than Indiana in last year’s bowl finale.

Sort of like the call on Georgia, the Rebel offense can absolutely work and the final score could still be 47-30. More on that in a moment.

Actually, more on that now …

– Week 5 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Ole Miss at Alabama

LINE Point Total 79.5
ATS PICK Under

Forgive this column full of self-indulgent tripe to become even more tripey.

I really believe that you always go with the team getting over 50 no matter what. If I’m Mercer walking into Bryant-Denny Stadium up 54-0, I say thank you and go on about my day – Bama won 48-14, by the way.

I also really believe that you never go over on a point total of 80.

It would be fantastic if this pick is wrong. I’ll happily take the L on this to see a wild show between these two high-powered teams, but it’s SO hard to get to 80 points.

For all the fun Bama has been this year, no game got past 79 – although the 63-14 win over Southern Miss flirted with that. Ole Miss got there last week with a 61-21 win over Tulane, but again, that’s so rare.

The SEC Championship against Florida – 98 points – and the 63-48 win over Ole Miss were the only two times the 2020 Bama team played in a game with 80 or more, and that was one of the greatest offensive juggernauts in college football history.

Ole Miss, however got well past 80 in five of its ten games last year.

Keep going under on 79.5, and you’ll be fine.

Also, you’re almost always right to take the over on a preseason win total of 1. Case in point …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Kansas at Iowa State

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 4

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 4?

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 4?

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Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 4 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 3 Experts Picks: NFL
– College Football 10 Team Parlay Picks

Results So Far ATS: 26-14-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

It’s a rough week for marquee games, but it’s a week of bulk. There’s a whole lot to choose from even if there isn’t an Alabama vs. Florida on the board.

The other-team-has-guys-too call worked twice, going with the dog on Oregon against Ohio State a few weeks ago and Florida over Alabama last week. There isn’t anything like that in Week 4, but to throw the big game on here, just because …

Click on each game for the preview

10. Notre Dame vs Wisconsin

LINE Wisconsin -6
ATS PICK Wisconsin

Boo.

I wanted this at Wisconsin -5.5, but it jumped to 6 when I started this, so fine … don’t change your first answer.

We all know how this game is going to go.

Notre Dame shouldn’t be able to run a lick on the Badger defensive front, and the leaky Irish line might get QB Jack Coan killed. Even so, Coan will hit a few downfield plays, and Badger QB Graham Mertz will keep this interesting by missing a few key reads in the face of pressure from the Irish defensive front.

Wisconsin will hold the ball for 41 minutes – because that’s what it does – and it’ll seem like it’s dominating this game even though the score is close. In Chicago at Soldier Field, the rested Badgers should win this – have the Irish shown you anything so far? – but …

It’s this easy. Do you think Wisconsin will turn the ball over two or more times. If you do, then ignore this and take the Irish. If you don’t, then this should be a strong Badger win.

– College Football 10 Team Parlay Picks

9. Missouri at Boston College

LINE Missouri -1.5
ATS PICK Missouri

I know I’m supposed to sell you on these being the 10 best college football picks and all of that, and that should mean that we don’t take any chances here. It’s the advice I give that drives people nuts – sometimes you stay away if you don’t quite know what you’re getting with a team.

That was Auburn last week with Penn State.

This week, we don’t quite know what we’re getting with Boston College, but I’m ignoring that because I’ll be mad if I don’t go with this and my instincts turn out to be right.

BC has been fine, but so far it played Colgate, UMass, and Temple, and now it’s without starting QB Phil Jurkovec. Missouri hasn’t been amazing, but if a miserable UMass offense can put up 28 on the Eagles, and if they can only beat Temple 28-3, I’m taking my chances that the SEC team with the terrific backfield can just get a win.

– Week 4 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Nebraska at Michigan State

LINE Michigan State -5
ATS PICK Michigan State

Let’s keep this going.

I’m not a believer in superstition, but the 8 spot here has been a rock over the years. This season, it’s keeping the No. 8 chain going – it’s like the Turnover Chain, but cool.

I had Appalachian State covering against Miami, then last week it was Michigan State over the Canes, and this week I’ll go with MSU just in case this team is for real.

To be warned, though, my belief system that all performances over the Hurricanes this year have been overblown – see what I did there? – including Alabama’s victory in the opener, and certainly Michigan State beating Northwestern doesn’t appear to be any big whoop.

However, Nebraska might be playing just well enough to lose this respectfully. Even so, it’s only five, the Spartans have been air tight on defense so far, and it’s Nebraska, so 1) there will be penalties, 2) there will be turnovers, and 3) the defense will ball out only to give up third down conversions by the bucket.

– Week 3 NFL Expert Picks

7. Louisville at Florida State

LINE Louisville -2
ATS PICK Louisville

There’s something very trappy about this.

Louisville just beat a strong UCF team in a thriller, and Florida State beat itself in losses to Notre Dame, Jacksonville State, and Wake Forest.

Louisville has a dynamic offense that seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time, and Florida State is playing like it just wants all the sad to be over already.

The Noles can’t seem to ever convert a third down try, they’re getting hit with a gajillion penalties, they can’t do anything right in the red zone, there hasn’t been a turnover the offense hasn’t enjoyed giving away, and for what seems like the 14th year in a row, there’s nothing happening on the O line.

This seems like a trap. If it is, so be it. Ha ha you win, betting gods.

Louisville is only giving away 2. Until Florida State shows you something, go with it.

Speaking with sticking with the momentum …

– Week 4 College Football Expert Picks

6. Kansas at Duke

LINE Duke -16
ATS PICK Duke

No real analysis here … it’s Kansas.

Until proven otherwise, the cash machine that is the Jayhawk fade has put America so far ahead that one misfire – when it inevitably happens – will finally bring sweet relief to this wild ride that doesn’t slow down.

I am still steadfast in my belief that the over on the Kansas win total of 1 is the second-best call of the year behind the over on the Stanford win total of 4.

I still believe that Duke could absolutely screw this up with one of its fabulous mega-turnover performance art performances. The team invented new ways to lose in whatever that was against Charlotte.

Kansas is still a Power Five program with a great new head coach and enough playmakers to get hot for one wild day – the guys coming out of that tunnel are on scholarship, too – and I wouldn’t take Duke giving away 16 points to a potted plant, but …

It’s Kansas. The show goes on.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 5: Kentucky at South Carolina

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 2

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 2 weekend of the college football season?

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 2 weekend of the college football season?

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Week 2 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 2 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL

Results So Far ATS: 14-6-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Last week was all about the favorites picking all ten to crank it up and win easily – the picks went a decent 6-4.

The real killer over all was the under – there was a massive wave of lower-than-expected scoring games that made Week 1 either very good or very rough for the investors.

This week a few underdogs are sprinkled in, but in general, 1) the lines still seem a tad too high on the totals – go under until the shift to normal comes – and 2) the favorites still look good in the over-reactionary second week.

So let’s start with an interesting dog that might be creeping up come Saturday …

Click on each game for preview

10. Oregon at Ohio State

LINE Ohio State -14.5
ATS PICK Oregon

And now we get the hook.

Sort of liked this when it opened at Buckeyes -11.5, loved at 14, yay at the 14.5 it bumped up to after news of the Kayvon Thibodeaux injury came out.

Oregon’s mediocre performance in the win over Fresno State solidified the double-digit line – it would’ve been around 9.5 had the Ducks won by 30 instead of 31-24 – but blow that off.

Oregon is one of the few teams in America that can run with Ohio State. It’s got the athletes, it’s got the talent, and it’s got the guys to potentially pull this off outright if Ohio State QB CJ Stroud struggles and if the O line doesn’t take over.

The Buckeyes should pull this off, but the 14.5 is a tad too high.

9. NC State at Mississippi State

LINE NC State -1
ATS PICK NC State

It went from a Pick to NC State -2.5 to Pack -1.

That all might be tremendous undervalue considering Mississippi State isn’t very good at college football under Mike Leach.

It needed to pull a 35-34 win over Louisiana Tech out of the fire, the offense still isn’t working like it’s supposed to, and that’s coming off a 2020 that started and ended well and was a disaster in between.

Somewhat quietly, NC State has the upside, experience, and talent to be the second-best team in the ACC if it can put together a a string of consistent performances.

Nah, you never like the ACC over the SEC on the road, but the real spread should be NC State -8ish instead of just the 1.

– Week 2 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Appalachian State at Miami

LINE Miami -9
ATS PICK Appalachian State

Warning … I’m trying to make a pick happen here.

I firmly believe that if I make a prediction with enough conviction, it’ll happen.

I take full responsibility for picking Michigan State into the 2014 Rose Bowl, and I’ve been working on making Texas A&M a College Football Playoff team by predicting it to be true.

Maybe I’m not fully committed here – although I probably should be – but I’m trying to make the world believe that Appalachian State is not only the best team in the Sun Belt, but it could win this outright with its experience, running game, and timing by catching Miami between Alabama and Michigan State.

The Mountaineers might just win this outright, and the world is giving us nine points.

– Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

7. South Alabama at Bowling Green

LINE South Alabama -14
ATS PICK South Alabama

Welcome to the first of five I Despise Picking Big Spreads When The Underdog Is Totally Awful, I’m Lying, I Love It predictions for this week.

I’m also picking out of spite, even though it was Tennessee’s fault for fumbling late and not covering against Bowling Green.

Until the Falcons can prove they can do something right, I’ll overreact and go the other way.

Akron. A winless 2019 Akron was the last FBS team Bowling Green has beaten in the last 12 games.

More than anything else, I’m in on Jake Bentley – the USA QB who formerly played for Utah and South Carolina. He was brilliant in the 31-7 win over Southern Miss, and he’ll be just fine again this week.

Bowling Green has lost each of its last nine games – and 15 of its last 17 – by well over two touchdowns. It’s about to do it again.

– Week 2 College Football Expert Picks

6. Temple at Akron

LINE Temple -6.5
ATS PICK Temple

Not only is this the second I Despise Picking Big Spreads When The Underdog Is Totally Awful, I’m Lying, I Love It pick of the week, but I’m also trying to make a pick happen as I combine my belief systems.

I think Temple is better than it’s been playing over the last two years, including in the rim-rocking, 5 turnover-fest of a loss to Rutgers last week. But this is more about Akron.

The Zips lost to Auburn 60-10 – being outgained on the ground 316 yards to -3 – making it seven total annihilations they’ve suffered in the last eight games and 22nd in the last 24.

Temple has hardly been a prize going 1-8 in its last nine games, but you’re asking for a touchdown win over one of the most reliably bad teams going.

NEXT: No. 5 Pick Against The Spread: Buffalo at Nebraska

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1 Saturday

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 1 weekend of the college football season?

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 1 weekend of the college football season?

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Week 1 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
– Best Picks Against the Spread: Friday
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL

Results So Far ATS: 8-2-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

To be totally honest, I hope a lot of these picks are wrong.

It would be a tremendous thing for college football and the 2021 season if most of the underdogs pull off upsets – several of these lines are low, if not close to even – but I can’t make them happen.

I know it’s boring, unimaginative, and un-American to pick all favorites in all ten of the games here, but I can only see the future, I can’t do anything to change it.

Ten picks, ten favorites. Begging for your forgiveness as we start with …

Click on each game for preview

10. Alabama vs. Miami

LINE Alabama -19.5
ATS PICK Alabama

Hi, I’m Pete, and I picked Ohio State to beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Everyone: “Hi, Pete.”

I spent over a decade yelling at everyone to always take Bama no matter what – that includes against the spread – and I choked before the biggest game of the 2020 season.

Maybe I’m just trying to make up for it, or maybe it’s because this program kicks everyone in the teeth in season openers, or maybe it’s because the Bama linebacking corps is one of the best that college football has seen in a long, long time, and it’s going to shut down D’Eriq King whenever he tries to do anything but become a pocket passer.

Liked it at 17.5, was fine at 18, and not drifting now that it’s 19.5.

9. Texas Tech vs. Houston

LINE Texas Tech -1
ATS PICK Texas Tech

As you’ll see through some of the other picks, my insufferable belief system that teams and programs with more talent and resources tend to win more often than not will come through with the subtlety of a steamroller. But this case is something slightly different.

While some of the upcoming picks are mostly on simply playing into the Power Five snob brand, I actually do believe that Texas Tech is on the verge of a good season.

I’ve been hyping up the Red Raiders all offseason and I can’t bail now – and I’m only giving up one point after the line started out at -6.5.

Houston is good, it’ll be fired up, and this is the year when things are likely to finally turn for head coach Dana Holgorsen. But Texas Tech is LOADED with experience and super-seniors, and it has a future NFL starting quarterback in Oregon transfer Tyler Shough to run the show.

It’ll be a great game, but all Texas Tech has to do is win.

– Week 1 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Notre Dame at Florida State

LINE Notre Dame -7
ATS PICK Notre Dame

I’m a horrible, horrible person.

I don’t like dogs, I find the Harry Potter movie series to be unwatchable crap, and I despise when the media creates a narrative around real world human interest things as a reason a team might be better in a sporting event.

Bobby Bowden was one of my favorite college football head coaches ever. The McKenzie Milton story – the former UCF QB coming back from a horribly broken leg to play for FSU – is as wonderful as it gets. There won’t be a dry eye in Doak Campbell Stadium on Sunday night as the program honors Bowden and everyone watches Milton run onto the field …

And then Notre Dame wins by double-digits because it’s going to be better at playing college football.

And if Florida State pulls it off, it’ll be because it did a stronger job of blocking and tackling over the four hours.

– Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

7. Indiana at Iowa

LINE Iowa -4
ATS PICK Iowa

If you care about these things, I initially put this game here when it was at Iowa -3.5 and it went up to 4. However, it started out at 5.5, and there’s a reason.

Indiana is good. 2020 wasn’t a fluke, the team is as well-coached as any in college football, and it has the guys in place to get this road win as long as the run defense can hold up. But it’s Iowa, it’s at home, and you know exactly what you’re getting.

The running game will be good, the defensive front will be great, and if QB Spencer Petras can hit a downfield throw or three, it should be able to pull this off by more than four. I know I’m getting weird over a half a point, but this is probably going to be played in the 20s – I wanted it at 3.5.

But as we were all told in third grade before a multiple choice test, when in doubt, stick with your first answer.

– Week 1 College Football Expert Picks

6. UTSA at Illinois

LINE Illinois -5
ATS PICK Illinois

I’m a noted Power Five snob and will always instantly assume the bigger, stronger, richer, schools with the advantages will take out the smaller programs that don’t have all of the same luxuries. But UTSA is a good team with real, live players who can hang with a 1-0 Big Ten team.

It would hardly be a total shock if the Roadrunners pull this off – Sincere McCormick might be the best running back the Illini face all year – but the line is only five and I’m all in on the super-senior loaded team with a win under its belt to keep the momentum going at home.

You’ll have to sweat a bit, but the Illinois lines will come through as the game goes on.

Speaking of Power Five arrogance …

NEXT: No. 5 Pick Against The Spread: Syracuse at Ohio

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1 Friday

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Friday of Week 1 of the college football season?

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Friday of Week 1 of the college football season?

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Week 1 Friday Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
– Week 1 Friday Schedule, Predictions
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL

Results So Far ATS: 8-2-1

Click on each game for preview

5. Duke vs. Charlotte point total

TOTAL: 60.5
ATS PICK: UNDER

For whatever it’s worth, Duke-Charlotte is one of the better plays of the weekend – Part 2 of this is coming later – if you really believe that the 49ers aren’t a whole lot better after getting whacked 53-19 last year by the Blue Devils.

There’s a little bit of danger here with the under only because the Duke offense might work again like it last year’s game when it rolled up over 400 yards with a huge day on the ground.

– Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

Charlotte has enough veteran parts to keep this from being a total wipeout again, and the Duke defense will be a wee bit iffy out of the gate, but even if it’s closer this shouldn’t be a high-powered shootout.

Assume Charlotte comes in with around 20 points and Duke hangs around 35ish. There might be a little squirming late, but watch out for both teams to stall a bit in the heat and humidity on Friday night.

NEXT: No. 4 Pick Against The Spread: South Dakota at Kansas

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1 Thursday

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread for the Thursday games of Week 1 of the college football season?

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Thursday games of Week 1 of the college football season?

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Week 1 Thursday Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
– Week 1 Thursday Schedule, Predictions
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL

Results So Far ATS: 5-0

Click on each game for preview

5. LIU at FIU & Wagner at Buffalo

LINE: FIU -7 & Buffalo -43.5
ATS PICKS: FIU & Wagner

There might be a whole slew of games to pick from on Thursday, but there aren’t a whole lot of FBS vs FBS games that appear to be a sure thing – those are coming (hopefully) with the Saturday version of this, out on Friday.

So here are two quirky picks that are off the radar – you might have to work to find these – but could be promising in the lines really do come close to holding firm.

FIU went 0-5 in 2020, but that was a wee bit of an aberration. It might have lost to Jacksonville State from the FCS world, and the offense was hardly consistent, but this version is far stronger.

If you go with these, though, go light.

– Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

LIU has a whole lot of nice parts, and it’ll keep the game from becoming an ugly blowout, but FIU will push on by at home by more than a touchdown. FIU won’t be anything special, but it’s not Bryant or Merrimack – the two wins on the LIU spring schedule.

The other one is just a straight gaudy line play. If you’re new to the show, I have a hard and fast belief system that if someone wants to give me a 40-point lead walking into the stadium, I’ll take it and take my chances.

Wagner might not score against a terrific UB D, but if it does, it should have this thanks to all those wonderful, wonderful points. The Bull dogs might be called off in a hurry.

NEXT: No. 4 Pick Against The Spread: Eastern Washington at UNLV

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 0

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 0 of the college football season?

What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 0 of the college football season?

[mm-video type=playlist id=01f1343a1wt7q817p7 player_id=none image=https://collegefootballnews.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]

Week 0 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 0 & 1 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 0 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 1 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL

Results So Far ATS: 0-0

Before getting started with the Week 0 best picks against the spread, there are a few point total picks thrown in there with just five game played this weekend.

Also, as a heads up, I don’t really like any of these all that much – I like what’s coming on the 10 Best Week 1 version that’s coming next week a whole lot more.

Whatever … these five picks are right.

Click on each game for preview

5. Nebraska at Illinois

LINE: Nebraska -7
ATS PICK: Illinois

Is Illinois playing at home? Yes.

Could Illinois win this game outright in Game One of the Bret Bielema era? Yes.

Has Nebraska done anything over the last four seasons to make you think something magical is coming. Not really.

Nebraska is the better team, though.

It might not have a slew of sure-thing superstar playmakers – and that still includes QB Adrian Martinez, for now – but it should be able to run the ball a bit, and the defensive front seven should take over against a mediocre group of Illinois skill parts.

However, this is strictly a believe-it-when-I-see-it play taking Illinois at home with the points.

– Schedule, Predictions, Game Previews, Lines, TV: Week 0

The Illini beat the Huskers 41-23 last year in Lincoln, lost by four in 2019, and got walloped in 2018 and 2017. Even with just one win in the series since 2015, this is still more up in the air than it might appear.

Illinois has veterans in the offensive backfield, a solid linebacking corps, and … yeah, if this goes one way big, it’ll be the Big Red going off and rolling. However, the Huskers have just two wins by more than seven points in their last 17 games.

NEXT: No. 4 Pick Against The Spread: UConn at Fresno State

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