Tag: college football picks week 4

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5?

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Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews 
– CFN Week 5 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 4 Experts Picks: NFL 
– 10 Best Picks For A Parlay: Week 5

Results So Far ATS: 30-20-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

After a crazy Week 4 – and a nightmarish 4-6 run of picks – it’s time to recalibrate and get back to getting this right. It all starts with this …

Do you really believe? You’ll get the idea.

Click on each game for the preview

10. Arkansas at Georgia

LINE Georgia -18
ATS PICK Georgia

A host on one of the radio hits I did the other day asked a two-part question. Is Arkansas for real, and is Georgia actually good enough to cover this spread?

I answered a question with a question – making for riveting radio. Can both things be true?

I do believe in Arkansas. It’s not perfect, but it’s doing all the little things right, the defense is the real deal, and we have to start giving more respect to the good win over Texas as the season goes on.

But I’m starting to think Georgia might be the No. 1 team in college football, and I’ve said this over and over and over again over the last few days.

So do I really believe this? Yeah. Arkansas is just that good, but the Georgia defense is otherworldly. The Hogs could battle hard and still lose 27-6.

Yeah, I really believe that the 2021 season is on a collision course of Alabama vs. Georgia in an epic SEC Championship. So …

– Week 4 NFL Expert Picks

9. Ole Miss at Alabama

LINE Alabama -14
ATS PICK Alabama

Best of all, the money is coming thundering in on Ole Miss. The line started out at -17.5 and it’s down to -14 as there’s more and more buzz about this fantastic Rebel team and Heisman contender QB Matt Corral.

There’s one problem.

Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane. We’re supposed to crown Ole Miss for rolling in those three games?

This team’s a blast, Lane Kiffin is a blast, and Nick Saban’s head will explode if his team doesn’t pull off a win in this after screaming for weeks that it’s not doing all the little things right.

However, I’ll really believe in the Ole Miss defense when it really does come up with a meaningful stop against someone other than Indiana in last year’s bowl finale.

Sort of like the call on Georgia, the Rebel offense can absolutely work and the final score could still be 47-30. More on that in a moment.

Actually, more on that now …

– Week 5 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Ole Miss at Alabama

LINE Point Total 79.5
ATS PICK Under

Forgive this column full of self-indulgent tripe to become even more tripey.

I really believe that you always go with the team getting over 50 no matter what. If I’m Mercer walking into Bryant-Denny Stadium up 54-0, I say thank you and go on about my day – Bama won 48-14, by the way.

I also really believe that you never go over on a point total of 80.

It would be fantastic if this pick is wrong. I’ll happily take the L on this to see a wild show between these two high-powered teams, but it’s SO hard to get to 80 points.

For all the fun Bama has been this year, no game got past 79 – although the 63-14 win over Southern Miss flirted with that. Ole Miss got there last week with a 61-21 win over Tulane, but again, that’s so rare.

The SEC Championship against Florida – 98 points – and the 63-48 win over Ole Miss were the only two times the 2020 Bama team played in a game with 80 or more, and that was one of the greatest offensive juggernauts in college football history.

Ole Miss, however got well past 80 in five of its ten games last year.

Keep going under on 79.5, and you’ll be fine.

Also, you’re almost always right to take the over on a preseason win total of 1. Case in point …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Kansas at Iowa State

What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 4?

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Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews 
– CFN Week 4 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 3 Experts Picks: NFL
– College Football 10 Team Parlay Picks

Results So Far ATS: 26-14-1

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

It’s a rough week for marquee games, but it’s a week of bulk. There’s a whole lot to choose from even if there isn’t an Alabama vs. Florida on the board.

The other-team-has-guys-too call worked twice, going with the dog on Oregon against Ohio State a few weeks ago and Florida over Alabama last week. There isn’t anything like that in Week 4, but to throw the big game on here, just because …

Click on each game for the preview

10. Notre Dame vs Wisconsin

LINE Wisconsin -6
ATS PICK Wisconsin

Boo.

I wanted this at Wisconsin -5.5, but it jumped to 6 when I started this, so fine … don’t change your first answer.

We all know how this game is going to go.

Notre Dame shouldn’t be able to run a lick on the Badger defensive front, and the leaky Irish line might get QB Jack Coan killed. Even so, Coan will hit a few downfield plays, and Badger QB Graham Mertz will keep this interesting by missing a few key reads in the face of pressure from the Irish defensive front.

Wisconsin will hold the ball for 41 minutes – because that’s what it does – and it’ll seem like it’s dominating this game even though the score is close. In Chicago at Soldier Field, the rested Badgers should win this – have the Irish shown you anything so far? – but …

It’s this easy. Do you think Wisconsin will turn the ball over two or more times. If you do, then ignore this and take the Irish. If you don’t, then this should be a strong Badger win.

– College Football 10 Team Parlay Picks

9. Missouri at Boston College

LINE Missouri -1.5
ATS PICK Missouri

I know I’m supposed to sell you on these being the 10 best college football picks and all of that, and that should mean that we don’t take any chances here. It’s the advice I give that drives people nuts – sometimes you stay away if you don’t quite know what you’re getting with a team.

That was Auburn last week with Penn State.

This week, we don’t quite know what we’re getting with Boston College, but I’m ignoring that because I’ll be mad if I don’t go with this and my instincts turn out to be right.

BC has been fine, but so far it played Colgate, UMass, and Temple, and now it’s without starting QB Phil Jurkovec. Missouri hasn’t been amazing, but if a miserable UMass offense can put up 28 on the Eagles, and if they can only beat Temple 28-3, I’m taking my chances that the SEC team with the terrific backfield can just get a win.

– Week 4 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game

8. Nebraska at Michigan State

LINE Michigan State -5
ATS PICK Michigan State

Let’s keep this going.

I’m not a believer in superstition, but the 8 spot here has been a rock over the years. This season, it’s keeping the No. 8 chain going – it’s like the Turnover Chain, but cool.

I had Appalachian State covering against Miami, then last week it was Michigan State over the Canes, and this week I’ll go with MSU just in case this team is for real.

To be warned, though, my belief system that all performances over the Hurricanes this year have been overblown – see what I did there? – including Alabama’s victory in the opener, and certainly Michigan State beating Northwestern doesn’t appear to be any big whoop.

However, Nebraska might be playing just well enough to lose this respectfully. Even so, it’s only five, the Spartans have been air tight on defense so far, and it’s Nebraska, so 1) there will be penalties, 2) there will be turnovers, and 3) the defense will ball out only to give up third down conversions by the bucket.

– Week 3 NFL Expert Picks

7. Louisville at Florida State

LINE Louisville -2
ATS PICK Louisville

There’s something very trappy about this.

Louisville just beat a strong UCF team in a thriller, and Florida State beat itself in losses to Notre Dame, Jacksonville State, and Wake Forest.

Louisville has a dynamic offense that seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time, and Florida State is playing like it just wants all the sad to be over already.

The Noles can’t seem to ever convert a third down try, they’re getting hit with a gajillion penalties, they can’t do anything right in the red zone, there hasn’t been a turnover the offense hasn’t enjoyed giving away, and for what seems like the 14th year in a row, there’s nothing happening on the O line.

This seems like a trap. If it is, so be it. Ha ha you win, betting gods.

Louisville is only giving away 2. Until Florida State shows you something, go with it.

Speaking with sticking with the momentum …

– Week 4 College Football Expert Picks

6. Kansas at Duke

LINE Duke -16
ATS PICK Duke

No real analysis here … it’s Kansas.

Until proven otherwise, the cash machine that is the Jayhawk fade has put America so far ahead that one misfire – when it inevitably happens – will finally bring sweet relief to this wild ride that doesn’t slow down.

I am still steadfast in my belief that the over on the Kansas win total of 1 is the second-best call of the year behind the over on the Stanford win total of 4.

I still believe that Duke could absolutely screw this up with one of its fabulous mega-turnover performance art performances. The team invented new ways to lose in whatever that was against Charlotte.

Kansas is still a Power Five program with a great new head coach and enough playmakers to get hot for one wild day – the guys coming out of that tunnel are on scholarship, too – and I wouldn’t take Duke giving away 16 points to a potted plant, but …

It’s Kansas. The show goes on.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 5: Kentucky at South Carolina