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A fantasy football snapshot of each team in the NFC East.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
The good and the bad of Washington acquiring Carson Wentz.
The Washington Commanders attempted to pry Russell Wilson away from the Seattle Seahawks last week but had to settle on acquiring Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz in a deal that is believed to include a pair of third-round picks. One of the selections can become a second-round choice in 2023 through incentives.
Wentz will play for his third team in as many seasons and has lost virtually all of the luster he acquired from an impressive sophomore season way back in 2017. The 29-year-old quarterback returns to the NFC East to battle his former team, Philadelphia, twice in the upcoming campaign. He leaves what was close to an ideal situation in Indianapolis after flopping down the stretch when the team needed him most, ultimately costing the team a playoff berth.
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While Wentz certainly is capable of turning things around, it’s imprudent to expect this to happen. He fizzled out in Philly before heading to Indy in what was billed as a perfect reunion with head coach Frank Reich. It wasn’t all bad — Wentz threw 27 touchdowns to just seven interceptions — but many mistakes won’t appear in a stats sheet as a turnover and came at the worst time.
As for the Colts being a team in search of a new quarterback, we’ll dive into that one as more is known. They’ve already been linked to Jimmy Garoppolo. The free-agent crop is uninspiring, and this is a weak class of incoming rookies. Reich and Co. may quickly find the grass wasn’t any greener on the other side.
One has to question, if the couldn’t get the job done under Reich, who is to say Washington will be any better?
Personnel will be key here as he takes a drastic step in the wrong direction when it comes to the weapons at his disposal. Everything in a one-to-one comparison with the Colts is a step backward for Wentz. In fairness, Washington has cap space to burn and can address the offensive side of the ball in free agency as well as the upcoming NFL Draft.
Rock-solid defense can lead to short fields — great in real-life football but not necessarily a plus in fantasy. It also isn’t an automatic negative, either, as we’ve seen with his extreme efficiency when Wentz is at his best. In 2017, for example, the 33 touchdown strikes and 25.1 fantasy points per game (both career bests) came on only 440 passing attempts. Typically speaking, low-volume passers are backed into a corner and must be highly effective each and every throw to truly make a splash in fantasy lineups on a weekly basis.
Between personnel concerns, an extensive injury history, and a lack of being consistently relevant in fantasy football four years running, there’s no clear path to Wentz regaining his 2017 form without something short of a miracle transpiring.
He can safely be avoided in all conventional league formats. At best, Wentz is a deep-league backup with the occasional matchup utility, but it’s tough to imagine there not being better QB2 choices available with proper drafting.
Trending in the right and wrong directions to close out the 2021 season.
The 2021 season has been one of the most frustrating in the history of fantasy football. COVID-19 had an impact last season in terms of forcing games to be shifted from one week to another and messing with lineups, but the NFL made it clear prior to the start of this season that, while there could be flexibility within a week to switch games (Tuesday Night Football was a thing again this year), if you had an outbreak, it would be on the individual organizations to play. This time around, the show must go on.
The balance of power shifted completely as outbreaks hit teams. Quarterbacks who had never started before made starts. Entire position rooms went down – it’s hard to win you start your third left tackle or fifth defensive end or cornerback.
Hopefully, by the beginning of the 2022 season, this global nightmare will finally be behind us, but a lot of fantasy owners have seen their seasons come to an abrupt end due to COVID. For those who weren’t able to dodge the loss of key players at key time, just know you weren’t alone.
Here is the Week 18 Fantasy Market Report:
Mitchell isn’t a surprise riser – he’s posted five 100-yard rushing games – but in his last four games has become a workhorse like no other back in the league. In those four games, he has 97 carries for 399 yards and has scored three touchdowns. If the 49ers get into the playoffs, which is a distinct possibility, if they’re able to control the ground game like they have with Mitchell, the 49ers will be a hard out in the postseason.
There is always discussion about who will fill out the Tight End Mount Rushmore along with Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller – the accepted Big 3. Andrews has always been in consideration to be the fourth guy, but he has really stepped it up, especially in the last month. He has 99 catches for 1,276 yards and nine touchdowns, including five 100-yard games, but in the last month he may have cemented his spot. In his last four games, he has caught 35 passes for 465 yards and three touchdowns – planting his Mount Rushmore flag for next season.
A guy who didn’t play college football, he only has 10 receptions, but has gained 212 yards, including a 62-yard catch and touchdown receptions of 33 and 50 yards. With Chris Godwin out due to injury and Antonio Brown gone altogether, somebody has to step up, and Grayson may well be that speed option by default. Tom Brady has a history of turning receivers into fantasy darlings, and Grayson could be the next in a long line of them.
Ekeler is a guy who is in fantasy lineups almost every week because he’s a poor man’s Alvin Kamara – or at least he was. He has just one 100-yard rushing game and hasn’t hit 70 receiving yards in a game, but it’s the body of work that matters here. He has scored 18 touchdowns (11 rushing, seven receiving), has a touchdown in each of his last six games and, over that six-game span, he has scored nine TDs. If you had Ekeler and didn’t win a fantasy championship, it wasn’t his fault. He gave you what you needed to be successful.
Cooks has become a very poor man’s Davante Adams. Everyone knows the ball is coming his way, but he didn’t have Aaron Rodgers throwing it to him. He has 130 targets (next highest on the Texans is 53). He has 87 receptions (next highest is 30). He has 1,011 yards (next highest is 379). He has six TD receptions (next highest is three). When most would give up on him, over his last three games, he has 22 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns – stepping up for those who showed faith.
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His fantasy contribution as a rusher is negligible. What you get from him is passing yards and garbage-time touchdowns. That hasn’t happened this year, and it has gotten worse as time has gone by. The Falcons didn’t get in the QB run at the start of the draft and were willing to ride it out with Ryan – known for 300-yard games is losses. In his last eight games, he not only doesn’t have a single 300-yard passing game, Ryan has been under 200 in five of them, hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in any game, and has no touchdown passes in four contests. Those are the kind of stat lines you get from COVID replacements, not a guy who is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate.
He has been on this list before, but it has been because the expectations of a player of Elliott’s stature are pronounced. Unlike other running back disappointments, he has played in every game and never got benched in fantasy lineups. Scoring 12 touchdowns is great, but it has come with a price for a top-five pick. He has caught 46 passes, but they have gone for just 284 yards. He has 25 or fewer receiving yards in 13 games. What makes it an issue is that, in his last 10 games, his high for rushing yards is 52. Still in the heavy-lifting portion of his contract, this hasn’t been acceptable for some time. His stock for next year has a floor for the first time.
Fantasy football doesn’t care if you win or lose. Guys like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have become fantasy gods by having a brutal defense that provides fluffed numbers late in games (the Roethlisberger Effect). Wentz has a reputation for being capable of posting solid numbers. In his first nine games, he threw two or more touchdowns in seven of them and found his way into a lot of fantasy lineups. In his last seven games, he has one or no TDs and has thrown for 180 or fewer yards in five of them. Those who bought in during the first half of the season have been forced to rethink their position. While his team has been successful, he has stunk out loud from the fantasy perspective.
When the season started, it seemed like a lot of the same with Moore. Through his first four games, Moore caught 30 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns. That was when things were good. In 12 games, he has caught 56 passes for 672 yards and one touchdown. As bad as things have been, even those averages are above his last three games – 14 catches for 132 yards and no touchdowns. Moore was brought onto fantasy rosters with the knowledge that he was going to have issues at quarterback. But, he has had that before and thrived. This time around? Not so much.
Lawrence came in with the can’t-miss franchise tag of a “can’t miss” prospect – the best since Andrew Luck, many postulated. In his first game, he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns and the expectations suddenly went off the hook. In the 15 games since, he has thrown just seven touchdowns (with 14 interceptions) and has thrown for fewer than 230 yards in 11 of them. In his last 11 games, he has accounted for just four touchdowns. It’s not his fault that the Jaguars are extremely limited talent-wise, but four touchdowns in 11 games is something you expect from a marginal tight end, not the No. 1 overall pick.
Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 7.
Every year when a team invests in a quarterback in the first round, there is one of two scenarios that tend to play out.
One is that they throw the guy in the first on Day 1 and take their chances. 2) Under ideal circumstances, the organization claims that it’s going to take time with the young quarterback and get him up to speed slowly.
That rarely happens. There were five quarterbacks taken in the first round this year and only two of them were slated to be starters right out of the gate – first overall pick Trevor Lawrence and second overall pick Zach Wilson. The other three were projected to be groomed.
That ended in New England with the surprise release of Cam Newton, ascending Mac Jones to the starting job for Week 1.
Then there were two.
The Andy Dalton Era in Chicago ended in Week 2 when he was injured and the job was given to rookie Justin Fields.
Then there was one.
The 49ers claimed that they intended to sit Trey Lance. He made is starting debut in Week 5 but is still nursing a calf injury coming out of the bye week, hindering his chance to stake a legitimate claim on the starting job from Jimmy Garoppolo.
If a quarterback (other than Jordan Love) is drafted in the first round, regardless of what a coach says, he becomes the starter sooner than projected and gets his chance to make his stand as a franchise guy – for better or worse.
If anything, that timeline is getting shorter all the time, but will it translate into seeing any of them enter upcoming editions of the Fantasy Football Market Report?
Being the primary running back in the Bears offense has been a pretty good gig this season. In the four games David Montgomery played before getting injured, he had a pair of 100-yard rushing games and scored three touchdowns. In the two games since he went down, Herbert has rushed 37 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. With injuries sidelining his in-house competition, Herbert could join the elite fantasy back by sheer production – 18 carries for 75 yards in Week 5 and 19 carries for 97 yards and a score last Sunday.
Everyone keeps referring to Brown as the third wide receiver with the Bucs behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that is in name only. Despite playing one fewer game that those two, Brown has 29 receptions (two behind Evans and five behind Godwin) and his 418 yards is second on the team (just two yards behind Evans). What makes Brown the more attractive option is that over the last three games is he leads the teams in targets (32), receptions (23), receiving yards (280) and touchdowns (3). He will still have stiff competition for receptions but has quickly become Tom Brady’s most used target.
Hurts wasn’t a player anyone outside of Philly would have considered to be a regular fantasy starter, but he’s been about as consistent as any QB in the league in terms of not having the kind of game that loses a week for a fantasy owner. Through six games, he has accounted for two or more touchdowns in five of them. He has a pair of 300-yard passing games and is the Eagles’ leading rusher with 300 yards. At his current pace, he will rush for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 23 touchdown passes. Most fantasy owners could live with those numbers, especially with the easiest part of his schedule coming up.
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The injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a boom for Williams. While he didn’t post huge rushing numbers in his debut as the starter post-CEH, he rushed 21 times for 62 yards and scored two touchdowns. He accounted for 21 of the 24 rushing attempts for running backs for the Chiefs, and Andy Reid seems content to let him continue to be the primary (if not exclusive) running back in the system as long as Edwards-Helaire is out.
Lamb has always been considered to be the No. 2 guy in the Cowboys’ pass offense behind Amari Cooper, but he has been putting together some very impressive weekly numbers. He leads the team in targets (49), receptions (33), receiving yards (497), average per reception (15.1), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (4). He has four games with more than 80 receiving yards and, in his last two games, has blown up for 13 catches for 233 yards and three scores. Cooper may still be viewed as the top dog among Dallas receivers, but Lamb is making a case for himself that is pretty persuasive.
Wentz was drafted to either be a starter or in a platoon for someone who didn’t make a huge investment to land one of the top quarterbacks. However, he is starting to look much more like a game manager than a bona fide fantasy quarterback. He has thrown for more than 251 yards just once in six games and hasn’t accounted for more than two touchdowns in any game. At a time when QBs that can get you points with their legs and their arms, Wentz is a one-trick pony who doesn’t have a great trick. Over the last four games, he has rushed just nine times for 14 yards and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this season. If 240 passing yards, no rushing yards and two touchdowns are what you want from a quarterback, he’s your guy.
Big things were expected of Swift this season and, while he hasn’t been awful, he hasn’t shown any explosiveness. He leads the team with 34 receptions and has 295 receiving yards and one touchdown, so he brings value there. What is troubling is that he in a time share with Jamaal Williams at running back and appears to be losing that battle. Williams is averaging a full yard more per carry (4.3) than Swift (3.3). Over 65 carries, Swift has had a single carry of more than 16 yards. His four touchdowns in six games has been his saving grace, but when 51 yards is your high-water mark for any rushing in a game, that’s a problem that will be worse if the touchdowns start to dry up.
Rodgers isn’t having a bad season, but he was taken in drafts and auctions much higher this year than he was last year, because he was consistently dominant in 2020 on his way to the MVP. Last season, he threw for 280 or more yards 10 times and had three or more TD passes 12 times. Through six games, he has topped 280 yards just once and has three or more TD passes in just one game. Again, he is posting solid numbers (12 TD passes and two TD runs in six games). But, he just isn’t living up to the kind of expectations fantasy owners had coming off his brilliant 2020 season.
Gordon was brought onto rosters to start more weeks than not, and it just hasn’t worked out with him. He is averaging fewer than 12 carries a game, has more than 60 rushing yards just once (in Week 1), and a long run of just 14 yards in the last five games. Over the last three weeks, Javonte Williams has had a carry of 30 yards or more in each game – the kind of production that gets you more opportunities. Those will come at the expense of Gordon, who has done little as a receiver with just 13 catches for 119 yards and no TDs in six games.
Mayfield has been nothing short of a bust most of the season. He has thrown just six passing touchdowns in six games, has four games with 246 or fewer passing yards, and has 11 or fewer rushing yards in five of six games. Granted, his top two receivers (Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry) have both missed time with injuries, but Mayfield’s production has fallen off hard after a strong finish to the 2020 season. He doesn’t look like a guy you want in your lineup every week with the expectation of winning, especially now that he’s nursing a shoulder injury.
Analyzing Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz’s 2021 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.
On a new team for the first time in his five-year career, expectations are high for Indianapolis Colts starting QB Carson Wentz. Below, we look at Carson Wentz‘s 2021 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.
While expectations may be high for Wentz, reality may not be kind for the veteran. Despite his limited weapons, Wentz threw and NFL-high 15 interceptions last season (tied with Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock).
The potential is there for Wentz to be both a viable fantasy option and a playoff-making quarterback, but the question is if he can get back to that level.
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)
Wentz’s ADP equates to being the 121st offensive player typically off the board.
In terms of quarterbacks, he ranks 27th, one ahead of Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and one behind New England Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones. Wentz has gone as high as 31st overall and as low as 242nd overall.
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Games: 12
Passing yards: 2,620
Touchdowns: 16
Interceptions: 15
Wentz may be a sleeper in terms of finding a late-round backup that can produce when taking on an easy defense. In two-QB leagues in which quarterbacks are at a premium, Wentz is a viable fourth-round pick.
However, in keeper, dynasty or standard one-QB leagues, Wentz will drastically see his value deteriorate. From 2017-19, he threw 81 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
Last season with the Eagles, one in which WR Jalen Reagor started 11 games and WR Alshon Jeffery started just two, Wentz struggled. His line wasn’t great and his weapons were limited.
With WR T.Y. Hilton, RB Jonathan Taylor, and WR Michael Pittman Jr., the script is flipped in Indy.
This doesn’t mean take Wentz in the first eight rounds, but take him in round 11 when backup quarterbacks are flying off the board and expect to get a couple of quality starts out of him.
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