The Bills host the Broncos in Week 14 at New Era Field. To learn more about Sunday’s visitors, we spoke to Matthew Stevens, Ravens Wire’s Managing Editor, to learn more about Ravens:
We all see Lamar Jackson’s amazing playmaking skills, but what about his passing? Five touchdowns in a game, twice, is no easy task.
Don’t forget his two perfect 158.3 passer rating games this season — tying Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to have more than one in a single season. Jackson has grown leaps and bounds as a passer this season and I feel like that’s because of the work he put in this offseason. Jackson worked with two quarterback gurus on his mechanics and that shows in games when he’s far more consistent in his accuracy. Coming into the league, Jackson was underrated in being able to read a field, defense and in his football IQ, and with his accuracy improved, we’re seeing it all come together for him as a complete package.
I think it would be a mistake to ignore how his rushing ability and that of the Ravens’ offense as a whole impact Jackson’s elevation in throwing the football. The threat of Baltimore to run the football — either inside with power or outside with speed — cause defenders to keep their eyes in the backfield. That half second of indecision and less than 100% focus on their own responsibility has opened up passing lanes and helped receivers get wide open at times. More than I ever remember in the Ravens’ history, this offense is finally starting to see some pitch-and-catch completions that don’t require the ball to be thread into a football-sized hole between three defenders. While some of Jackson’s detractors have used this notion to downplay his success, I don’t think you see this same level of success without a player of Jackson’s athleticism throwing the football.
Like any quarterback, he isn’t perfect in every game. But his five interceptions this season have come in just two games and three of them were on effectively hail mary passes or what should have been called defensive pass interference. So he’s done a great job limiting any errors that he does have to simple incompletions instead of turnovers, which has been a large reason Baltimore has done so well offensively. Even if his other stats aren’t fantastic, not making game-breaking mistakes can often be enough to squeak by in any close games they have, much like they did last week against the 49ers.
Which do the Ravens struggle with more, if at all: Covering slot receivers or outside receivers? Aka: Should the Bills look to Cole Beasley or John Brown more?
Without a doubt, it’s the slot receivers that can kill this defense. Baltimore has more than enough talent at cornerback to completely shut down a passing attack with the combination of Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Carr and Marcus Peters, along with safeties Chuck Clark and Earl Thomas. But where they get bit so often this season is in zone coverages or if a slot receiver gets into a bubble where he’s covered by a linebacker. If you look back to the first four weeks of the season, it was those transition points that saw receivers so wide open a Ravens player wouldn’t even be on the same television screen in the broadcast. They’ve settled down quite a bit in this area by adding linebackers L.J. Fort, Josh Bynes and Peters at cornerback but that’s still absolutely the area to attack, especially if you can get the run game going a bit as well.
The Ravens only allow an average of 1.9 sacks per game. So how well does the Ravens’ O-line pass block? That’s a low number, but the question is, are they blocking well, or is it more Lamar escaping would-be sackers?
Baltimore has an odd mix of guys that I think are underrated. Most people know of Marshal Yanda or at least will when he eventually dons a golden jacket in the Hall of Fame, but Ronnie Stanley is arguably the best left tackle in football right now while right tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is solid and steadily improving as well. Center Matt Skura is on injured reserve now but he was playing really good football alongside guard Bradley Bozeman. Even Patrick Mekari, coming in to replace Skura, has done well in limited action. It would be unfair to say Jackson is the reason for their success when they’ve played so well by themselves.
But at the same time, it would be unfair to Jackson to say he doesn’t help bail them out at times. Where other quarterbacks get stuck holding onto the ball for too long and taking coverage sacks, Jackson is often able to find open field in front of him and won’t hesitate to take advantage of it if he’s not seeing anyone open. Where young quarterbacks often struggle to feel pressure at the correct times and move around the pocket in the correct direction, Jackson seemingly has radar in his brain and does an excellent job of moving just enough from within the pocket to buy extra time, even if he never takes off running.
But just like with Jackson’s success as a passer has to do with defenders being a little cautious with him, that’s the same when trying to bring him down. No one wants to be on a highlight reel tackling thin air thanks to a quick cut by Jackson that sees him bolt for 30 yards and a touchdown, even though we’ve still seen it happen A LOT this season alone. Pass rushers often are left playing more contain as the defense tries to shrink the pocket in an effort to not get burned by Jackson’s legs. So even super talented pass rushers are hobbled a bit because they can’t be as aggressive as they might want to be.
As a defense as a whole, how do the Ravens defend the run? Currently No. 6 in terms of yards allow, but also have allowed 11 rushing scores and allow 4.5 yards per carry. Is that No. 6 because teams can’t run against them, or because they can’t slow down the offense?
I think it’s a little of both things. Baltimore defenses pride themselves on shutting down the run and have since forever, so it’s something that gets ingrained into every defender from the second they put on a Ravens helmet to run downhill and hit the ball carrier as a swarm. Baltimore has one of the few defenses where you’ll actually see all 11 players try to make a tackle on every single play — something defensive backs around the league are well known to try and avoid when possible. That goes a long way towards at least being solid against the run, even if not spectacular in a given year. But you’re also right that the offense putting up points early and often has forced opponents to completely abandon the run in an effort to keep up.
The Ravens have seen the fewest rushing attempts against them this season but they allow the 11th-most (tied) rushing yards-per-attempt, which ultimately evens things out a bit overall. If a team has a fast running back that can hit the edges quickly and some good outside blocking, Baltimore is going to struggle. Just look at Week 13 for a prime example of the Ravens failing to stop that style of run as Raheem Mostert kept breaking off huge runs until the fourth quarter when Baltimore finally brought down some help to compensate. I don’t think it’s something that can or will last for a full game but the Ravens love keeping in extra defensive backs and that can bite them in the run game at times.
What’s your predict and a little analysis on how you think this one will turn out?
Since Week 7, Baltimore has been unstoppable and has looked the part too. While Jackson and this offense have been getting all the credit, the defense has stepped up massively since Week 5 and it’s allowing the Ravens to get out to large early leads. This might sound cocky but quite a few times this season when Baltimore gets out to a 14-point lead, I’ve told my editing counterparts the game is already over — whether that be in the first quarter or later has been irrelevant.
The Ravens might be the most well balanced team in football right now and that makes beating them tough. You need to have an defense that can at least limit Jackson and what he can do without overselling in any one area. The second a defense has to sell out to stop the pass or the run is the moment offensive coordinator Greg Roman attacks the hole where those defenders just came from. So that requires a stout defense all all three levels, which is asking a lot. But even if you have that, you still need to have an offense capable of running over Baltimore’s defense with a quarterback that can been efficient and careful. The Ravens’ defense has played aggressive football and they’ve been snatching takeaways (they have the fifth-best turnover percentage in the league). That gives Jackson and this prolific offense a short field and only increases their chances of putting up points. It ends up being a vicious cycle if an opponent messes up in any way, which applies so much pressure to a team to play clean football but still be aggressive.
While I like what the Bills have going on, I don’t think there’s a player on that defense that can stop Jackson one-on-one. Which means they’ll either have to use more defenders to play the run which will open up the pass or they’ll allow Jackson and the running backs to run all over them while they try not to get beat downfield. That’s not sustainable for 60 minutes without giving up points and long, time-consuming drives, which has been the killer of most of Baltimore’s opponents this season. So I’m picking the Ravens and by a wide margin this week.
Ravens 34 – Bills 10
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