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how in the world can you justify Penn State being eight spots higher?
The answer is that you can’t.
The College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night with a couple of shocks but nothing major in terms of the top-four or where Notre Dame will likely end up because of where they wind up in these latest rankings.
If you haven’t seen the rankings yet, here they are:
Here’s the full #CFBPlayoff Top 2️⃣5️⃣ rankings for games played through November 30.
Is your team in? 👀
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2019
Three fast thoughts on them:
Great news for the Big XII:
Love them or hate them, where both those teams go ratings follow.
With no conference championship to get ready for and the weekend’s coming conference championships having no baring on Notre Dame’s postseason destination, it’s easy to see why Fighting Irish fans are so quick to look ahead to whatever bowl game the Irish end up in the Camping World Bowl and Notre Dame’s date with the Big XII.
But who they play remains to be seen.
Yesterday I went over all the latest projections from various outlets I could find and although the majority had Oklahoma State being the opposition, Kansas State and Texas each both showed up as well.
While Baylor and Oklahoma battle this week for conference supremacy and a potential shot at the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas all finished with identical 5-4 marks in conference play.
What that means is that there is no obligation to have to pick a set team who finished third, instead the Camping World Bowl and potentially the Alamo Bowl (more on that later) have their pick of those squads potentially to invite to their bowl.
It all depends on what happens Saturday in the Big XII Championship and other conference title games.
If Oklahoma wins but doesn’t make the College Football Playoff, they’ll be headed to the Sugar Bowl. It’ll then be up in the air whether or not a two-loss Baylor team gets into a New Year’s Six Bowl as an at-large, but I’d bet against it considering they’ve been shown no love from the playoff committee do date despite having only one loss.
That would mean that Baylor would automatically go to the Alamo Bowl because they’re the highest non-NY6 team in the Big XII and that’s the rules the conference has agreed to.
The Camping World Bowl would then have it’s pick of any of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas since they all tied for third place in the Big XII.
It doesn’t take a brain-surgeon to figure out that there is one team on that list that bowl games love because of their insane following and one team on that list that would bring a massive following even if they were a big-time underachiever in 2019:
Texas.
Here’s the thing. The same can be said for the Alamo Bowl who the same rules would apply to if Baylor and Oklahoma were both to make NY6 Bowl games. This is entirely reliant on Baylor losing Saturday and then not being invited to the New Year’s Six, but again, I have a strong belief that will be the case.
If they both manage to get into those contests, Alamo Bowl gets the first pick of the 5-4 Big XII’s in a game that would be against Oregon or USC.
They’d be all over Texas too, at least given the chance to be.
As much as I’m a fan of Matt Rhule and what he’s been able to do first at Temple before turning around Baylor, my bet is that Oklahoma wins the conference title again on Saturday and that Baylor is left out of the New Year’s Six.
That would automatically send them to the Alamo Bowl while the Camping World Bowl gets their pick of the 5-4’s like we discussed and can anyone see them not taking a Notre Dame vs. Texas match-up?
Love them or hate them, where both those teams go ratings follow.
And think about it – are there two bigger possible fan-bases ESPN could wish for to start their December 28 game coverage with than Notre Dame and Texas?
Notre Dame’s only appearance in the game (2011, then the Champs Sports Bowl) resulted in the game’s only ever sellout. Sure, in-state Florida State wouldn’t be the opposition but you’re a fool if you don’t think Texas travels as well as anyone.
It’s dependent on Baylor losing and not being invited to the New Year’s Six, but I find that likely and can’t wrap my head around the idea of a bowl game passing on a Notre Dame/Texas match-up.
Ok, cool. Hook ’em.
With two weeks left in the college football season, let’s look at where each team currently stands in the bowl picture.
Welcome to the second set of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.
I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.
Now, I do have to admit that a small bit of prognosticating is necessary. There are currently only 74 bowl-eligible teams, but there are 39 bowl games. So, only for the purposes of determining who will reach bowl eligibility, I am forced to predict some games. To avoid bias as much as possible in the process, I will assume that the favored team wins each remaining game, and I will use FPI, SP+, Sagarin, and a few others to determine who is “favored.” As of today, these projections say there will be 79 bowl-eligible teams. That number includes Missouri. The Tigers’ appeal has finally been denied by the NCAA, so they will not be appearing in a bowl game.
Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences often have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.
Finally, keep in mind that these are based on what would happen if the season ends today. The season does not end today, though, so things will change between now and Selection Sunday. However, this is where each team stands right now. (As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections the morning of Selection Sunday will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.)
So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:
| Peach Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM | LSU | vs | Clemson |
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM | Ohio State | vs | Georgia |
This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so Ohio State will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.
The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Georgia will likely be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given primetime billing.
ESPN is projecting Texas to face Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl. It would be the first time they would play since the rivalry ended in 2011.
In ESPN’s latest bowl projection, Mark Schlabach projects one of the country’s best rivalry not only to come back but to be played in Houston, TX. Schlabach thinks the Longhorns will face off against former in-state rival Texas A&M in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl on Dec. 27.
A historic matchup that has been played 118 times, Texas has double the number of wins the Aggies do, leading the series 76-37-5. It was played for the final time in 2011 when Texas A&M decided to join the SEC. In the final game, Justin Tucker hit a game-winning field goal to give Texas a classic 27-25 win.
Since that moment, there have been continuous questions of when these two teams will play again. Either in a bowl game or scheduling a home and home series, the fans agree the Longhorns and Aggies need to play each other.
“Us not playing Texas A&M is not good for college football,” Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte said. “We’d love to play A&M.”
There were reports that Texas reached out to Texas A&M to renew the series with a home and home series in 2022 and 2023, but the Aggies “were already booked,” said Texas A&M athletic director Scott Woodward said.
Since being in the SEC in 2012, the Aggies have only had less than four losses once. Before leaving the Big 12, it had been since 1998 since they only had three losses. They agreed to play against Kansas State in the 2016 Texas Bowl but lost to the Wildcats 33-28.
[opinary poll=”do-you-want-to-see-texas-play-texas-am-i” customer=”collegewires”]
While the basketball teams will play each other on Dec. 8, this rivalry will remain all talk until the two meet again on the football field. With both teams expected to end their season 7-5, the opportunity for the two schools will be there to play in the Texas Bowl. While there have been rumors that the Aggies would turn down that opportunity, the two schools need to find a way to face off against each other.
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Perhaps both Ohio State and Minnesota win Saturday, handing Michigan and Wisconsin their third losses of the year, but after that it gets tricky.
Although no games were played Tuesday night Notre Dame saw their hopes of ending their season in the Cotton Bowl for a second year in a row come to an unofficial end.
As the College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night, Notre Dame remained at number 16 in the country, still the lowest of any two-loss power-five teams and also still behind three-loss Auburn.
So as it sits with No. 16 Notre Dame having just one game remaining against an under-500 Stanford team that won’t count for much, even if it does end with a 50 point win for the Irish.
The problem is that Notre Dame has already routed better teams than Stanford in recent weeks and gained no ground.
Unless you can figure out a way that Notre Dame jumps six teams and gets into the top-ten, then they’re headed to Orlando for the Camping World Bowl against a Big XII team.
With the games remaining it’s hard to find six losses that are going to benefit Notre Dame.
Here's a full look at the November 2️⃣6️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings.
Is your team in this week?
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 27, 2019
Auburn losing to Alabama would probably finally get the Irish ahead of the currently three-loss Tigers.
Perhaps both Ohio State and Minnesota win Saturday, handing Michigan and Wisconsin their third losses of the year, but after that it gets tricky.
Kansas over Baylor or Rutgers over Penn State? No help coming in either of those.
Same pretty much going for Colorado’s chances against Utah, Florida State’s to upset Florida.
Not only would Notre Dame need one of those to happen, they’d need three of the last four listed in order to have a chance, couple with those Auburn, Michigan and Wisconsin losses listed above.
As you can tell the chances at the Cotton Bowl are about as good as gone. so if interested you might as well get those flights booked to Orlando.
That’s the unfortunate reality when what happens in Ann Arbor in late October happen to you in front of a national audience.
College Football News bowl projections: APR rankings. What losing teams still have a chance?
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College Football News bowl projections: APR rankings. What losing teams still have a chance?
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews
– Future College Football Playoff Sites & Dates
So you think your 4-7 team is out of the bowl picture?
So you think you’re not going to have any swag-bag fun if your 5-6 team loses this weekend?
Just wait … you still have hope.
Welcome to the very quirky, very strange world of the APR rankings as the way college football fills its bowl slots if there aren’t enough eligible teams.
To whiteboard this, a team becomes bowl eligible if it wins six games, as long as there’s only one win over an FCS team. A bowl game has to take a team with six or more wins first, at least according to its conference bowl tie-ins. After that, if there are any open slots and no more available teams, the next-teams up go by the Academic Progress Rates.
The APR is a measurement of the improvements and academic success for the 2017-2018 school year. It has nothing to do with how good a football team is this season, but this is the deal.
So, again, if there aren’t enough teams that finish with a bowl-eligible six wins, the teams that finish 5-7 are allowed to be taken based on the APR.
Just in case you’re totally lost right now, here’s where to go to dive deeper …
– 2019 APR Rankings | APR by conference
– 2019-2020 College Bowl Tie-Ins by Conference
– CFN Latest Bowl Projections
Now, here’s why this matters.
There are 78 available slots for the 39 bowl games. At the immediate moment there are 73 bowl eligible teams, so obviously there are currently five openings.
Going into this weekend there are 12 teams with 5-6 records. If more than five of them win, there won’t be enough bowl games for all of the eligible teams. But if there aren’t five winners, then there will be a few openings.
Here’s where those 12 teams stand and what their chances are to get that sixth win – and here’s who you need to root against if your 4-7 or 5-6 team has a high APR.
Boston College at Pitt -9
Cal at UCLA -2.5
Kent State at Eastern Michigan -5.5
Michigan State -21.5 at Maryland
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
Nebraska at Iowa -5
North Carolina -8 at NC State
Ohio -27.5 at Akron
Oregon State at Oregon -17.5
TCU -12.5 at West Virginia
Troy at Appalachian State -13
ULM at Louisiana -21
Let’s add one more special case to the mix. Missouri -11.5 at Arkansas. At the moment, Mizzou isn’t eligible to go to a bowl due to NCAA sanctions, but the NCAA is looking into – and taking its sweet time – possibly changing this.
There are only four favorites out of the 12 teams that need a win this weekend. There will be upsets, and there’s a strong chance that at least five teams win and the bowl problem is solved. However, if fewer than five teams win, it comes down to the APR.
Which teams are in line for a bowl game because their respective players went to class a few years ago? Here’s who’s still alive …
The teams below are the ones in the mix if the APR factor kicks in.
If a team is 4-7 and wins this weekend to get to 5-7, it’s in the APR eligibility world. A 4-7 team is out with a loss.
Again, if the 5-6 teams on this list win, they’re eligible. But if any of them lose, there’s still the lifeline of the APR ranking.
LONG-winded article way of saying … if there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams to fill out the 78 slots, this would be the pecking order. The number in parentheses is the APR ranking of the school overall, followed by the APR score, followed by record.
– 2019 APR Rankings | APR by conference
1. (3) Duke 992 (4-7)
Duke vs. Miami -8.5
2. (8) Boston College 989 (5-6)
Boston College at Pitt -9
3. (15) Stanford 986 (4-7)
Stanford vs. Notre Dame -16.5
4. (22) Middle Tennessee 982 (4-7)
Middle Tennessee at WKU -9.5
5. (28) Ohio 981 (5-6)
Ohio -27.5 at Akron
6. (38) Ole Miss 978 (4-7)
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
7. (41) Nebraska 977 (5-6)
Nebraska at Iowa -5
8. (43) Mississippi State 976 (5-6)
Mississippi State -3 vs. Ole Miss
9. (54) Oregon State 971 (5-6)
Oregon State at Oregon -17.5
Any team lower than this in the APR Rankings is out, considering there would be at least five teams above finishing 5-7.
– 2019-2020 College Football Conference Bowl Tie-Ins
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So what does it mean for Notre Dame? Are the chances of getting to a New Years Six Bowl different after last week?
With potential College Football Playoff teams Oregon and Penn State losing over the weekend some folks at Alabama, Baylor and Oklahoma got excited about their potential chances for making the playoff.
So what does it mean for Notre Dame? Are the chances of getting to a New Years Six Bowl different after last week? Here’s what the experts have happening for Notre Dame after the conclusion of week 13.
The eight sources we get them from don’t all have them posted yet but here’s what we have as of early Sunday evening:
Camping World Bowl vs. Texas
Camping World Bowl vs. Texas
College Football News (Pete Fiutak):
Camping World Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
ESPN (Bonagura & Schlabach both):
Camping World Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Camping World Bowl vs. Kansas State
It wouldn’t appear what happened yesterday was good for Notre Dame’s chances at a New Year’s Six Bowl. The way things sit now it would appear they’re headed to Orlando for the former Blockbuster turned Carquest turned MicronPC turned Mazda turned Champ Sports turned Russell Athletic turned Camping World Bowl.
How does Notre Dame get to Dallas instead? Douglas Farmer from NBC Sports did a good job creating a path.
Let's talk #NotreDame's Cotton Bowl hopes …
If Utah beats Oregon, Alabama beats Auburn, Ohio State beats Michigan, Oklahoma beats Baylor, if two SECs make the Playoff, then the question is, do the Irish pass Penn State in the rankings?
If yes, Dallas should be beckoning.— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 24, 2019
It’s possible no-doubt but with the CFP Committee making clear last week how much they value results against common opponents (something I hate) I have trouble seeing how Notre Dame gets past Penn State who won against Michigan compared to the Irish who got rolled in Ann Arbor.
The CollegeFootballNews.com bowl projections, picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff after Week 13.
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The CollegeFootballNews.com bowl projections, picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff after Week 13.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews
– Future College Football Playoff Sites & Dates
If there appear to be a ton of awful matchups, there’s a reason …
Simply put, there are probably going to be a ton of awful matchups.
However, this can change a wee bit if Mississippi State beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and at the moment, we don’t project that to happen.
As we see it right now, there will be exactly enough bowl eligible teams for the slots – there won’t be any need to dive into the APR tie-breaker (if you don’t know what that is, don’t worry about it for now).
However, if the College Football Playoff rankings finish up as expected, LSU, Georgia, Alabama and Florida will all need to find homes in either the CFP or in one of the New Year’s Six games. If that happens, there won’t be enough SEC teams for all of the good bowl ties.
That means the potential will be there for a whole slew of bizarre MAC vs. Power Five matchups just to fill out the exhibitions.
The one other key part to note will be the American Athletic Conference pecking order.
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As is, the league’s bowl-ties are AWFUL – a few of the stars are going to end up punching well below their respective weights. For now, the call is that Memphis and Cincinnati will split their two showdowns – with Memphis winning in the regular-season finale, and UC pulling off the victory in a rematch in the Conference USA Championship.
If that doesn’t happen and if the AAC champion is 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl instead of projected Mountain West champ Boise State, then things get really nutty.
This will all start to clear up over the next several days, but for now …
Friday, December 20
2:00 ET, ESPN
Thomas Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
MAC vs. Conference USA
Projection: Western Michigan vs. Florida Atlantic
Last Season: FIU 35, Toledo 32
Friday, December 20L
7:30 ET, ESPN2
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
American Athletic vs. at-large
Secondary: MAC, and if not, Conference USA
Projection: SMU vs. Eastern Michigan
Last Season: Ohio 27, San Diego State 0
Saturday, December 21
1:30 ET, CBS Sports Network
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
American Athletic vs. Sun Belt
Projection: Temple vs. Georgia State
Last Season: Tulane 41, Louisiana 24
Saturday, December 21
2:00 ET, ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Conference USA vs. Mountain West
Projection: Southern Miss vs. Nevada
Last Season: Utah State 52, North Texas 13
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Saturday, December 21
3:30 ET, ABC
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
American Athletic vs. MAC
Projection: Tulane vs. Toledo
Last Season: UAB 37, Northern Illinois 13
Saturday, December 21
5:30 ET, ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Projection: Buffalo vs. Arkansas State
Last Season: Georgia Southern 23, Eastern Michigan 21
Saturday, December 21
7:30 ET, ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Mountain West (champion) vs. Pac-12
Projection: Hawaii vs. Washington State
Last Season: Fresno State 31, Arizona State 20
Saturday, December 21
9:00 ET, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Conference USA vs. Sun Belt (champion)
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian State
Last Season: Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee 13
Monday, December 23
2:30 ET, ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
American Athletic vs. Conference USA
Secondary: ACC
Projection: UCF vs. WKU
Last Season: Marshall 38, USF 20
Tuesday, December 24
8:00 ET, ESPN
Hawaiian Tel Federal Credit Union Field at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
BYU vs. American Athletic or Mountain West
Projection: BYU vs. Wyoming
Last Season: Louisiana Tech 31, Hawaii 14
Thursday, December 26
4:00 ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
ACC vs. SEC
Secondary: American Athletic, Conference USA
Projection: Florida State vs. Memphis
Last Season: Duke 56, Temple 27
Thursday, December 26
8:00 ET, ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
ACC vs. Big Ten
Secondary: MAC
Projection: North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Last Season: Minnesota 34, Georgia Tech 10
Friday, December 27
12:00 ET, ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium, Annapolis, MD
ACC vs. American Athletic
Projection: Louisville vs. Navy
Last Season: Cincinnati 35, Virginia Tech 31
Friday, December 27
3:20 ET, ESPN
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
ACC vs. Big Ten
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Nebraska
Last Season: Wisconsin 35, Miami 3
Friday, December 27
6:45 ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Big 12 vs. SEC
Projection: Texas vs. FIU*
*No SEC team projected available
Last Season: Baylor 45, Vanderbilt 38
Friday, December 27
8:00 ET, FS1
SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Projection: Michigan vs. Washington
Last Season: Northwestern 31, Utah 20
Saturday, December 28
10:15 ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Secondary: Mountain West
Projection: Kansas State vs. Ohio*
Last Season: TCU 10, Cal 7 OT
*No Pac-12 or Mountain West projected available
Saturday, December 28
12:00 ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
ACC vs. Big 12
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Last Season: Syracuse 34, West Virginia 18
Monday, December 30
12:30 ET, ESPN
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
Big 12 vs. Conference USA
Projection: TCU vs. Marshall
Last Season: Boise State vs. Boston College cancelled
Monday, December 30
4:00 ET, FOX
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Projection: Illinois vs. Cal
Last Season: Oregon 7, Michigan State 6
Monday, December 30
4:00 ET, ESPN
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
SEC vs. (likely) ACC, or Big Ten
Projection: Miami vs. Liberty*
Last Season: Auburn 63, Purdue 14
*No SEC team projected available
Tuesday, December 31
12:00 ET, ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
ACC vs. SEC
Projection: Pitt vs. Charlotte*
Last Season: Virginia 28, South Carolina 0
*No SEC team projected available
Tuesday, December 31
2:00 ET, CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
ACC vs. Pac-12
Projection: Virginia vs. Arizona State
Last Season: Stanford 14, Pitt 13
Tuesday, December 31
3:45 ET, ESPN
Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Big 12 vs. SEC
Secondary: American Athletic
Projection: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Last Season: Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 33
Tuesday, December 31
4:30 ET, CBS Sports Network
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Sun Belt vs. Mountain West
Projection: Georgia Southern vs. San Diego State
Last Season: Nevada 16, Arkansas State 13 OT
Tuesday, December 31
7:30 ET, ESPN
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Projection: Baylor vs. USC
Last Season: Washington State 28, Iowa State 26
Wednesday, January 1
1:00 ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
SEC vs. Big Ten or ACC
Projection: Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin
Last Season: Kentucky 27, Penn State 24
Wednesday, January 1
1:00 ET, ESPN
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Big Ten vs. SEC
Projection: Penn State vs. Auburn
Last Season: Iowa 27, Mississippi State 22
Thursday, January 2
3:00 ET, ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
American Athletic vs. SEC
Secondary: ACC
Projection: Cincinnati vs. UAB*
Last Season: Wake Forest 37, Memphis 34
*No SEC or ACC teams projected available
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Thursday, January 2
7:00 ET, ESPN
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
SEC vs. (likely) Big Ten, or ACC
Projection: Kentucky vs. Iowa
Last Season: Texas A&M 52, NC State 13
Friday, January 3
3:30 ET, ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
MAC vs. Mountain West
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Utah State
Last Season: BYU 49, Western Michigan 18
Saturday, January 4
11:30 am ET, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Big Ten vs. Mountain West
Projection: Indiana vs. Air Force
Last Season: Army 70, Houston 14
Monday, January 6
7:30 ET, ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Projection: Miami University vs. Louisiana
Last Season: Troy 42, Buffalo 32
– 2019-2020 College Football Conference Bowl Tie-Ins
Want to know where your team is likely to go bowling? Here are my current projections for all 39 FBS bowl games, including the CFP.
Welcome to the first of three sets of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.
I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.
Now, I do have to admit that a small bit of prognosticating is necessary. There are currently only 66 bowl-eligible teams, but there are 39 bowl games. So, only for the purposes of determining who will reach bowl eligibility, I am forced to predict some games. To avoid bias as much as possible in the process, I will assume that the favored team wins each remaining game, and I will use FPI, SP+, Sagarin, and a few others to determine who is “favored.” As of today, these projections say there will be 80 bowl-eligible teams. That number includes Missouri. The Tigers will be left out of these projections as they are currently appealing a bowl ban before the NCAA, and no final decision has been made.
Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where your team could be headed.
Finally, keep in mind that these are based on what would happen if the season ends today. The season does not end today, though, so things will change between now and Selection Sunday. However, this is where each team stands right now. (As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections the morning of Selection Sunday will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.)
So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM | LSU | vs | Georgia |
| Peach Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM | Ohio State | vs | Clemson |
This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.
The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will be the far bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given primetime billing.
So what does the blowout victory win and ultimately more importantly, what does this week’s No. 16 ranking matter for where Notre Dame will be headed this post-season?
No. 16 Notre Dame had one of their best wins of the season last Saturday as they put a beating on previously 23rd ranked Navy and moved to 8-2 in the process.
Notre Dame didn’t move up in the College Football Playoff rankings despite Auburn having their third loss of the season, this one coming on their home field. As much as it stings Fighting Irish fans, as we discussed earlier this week, the Irish have nobody to blame for that but themselves.
So what does the blowout victory win and ultimately more importantly, what does this week’s No. 16 ranking matter for where Notre Dame will be headed this post-season?
Knowing that last week only one of the eight experts we track had Notre Dame headed to a New Years Six Bowl Game, you may be pleasantly surprised what this weeks projections have for the Irish.
Notre Dame Bowl Projections:
