ESPN’s Bill Barnwell likes Jameis Winston as a long-shot MVP candidate

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell likes Jameis Winston as a long-shot MVP candidate

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Jameis Winston, Most Valuable Player? Hey, maybe so. Anything could happen. One sort-of vote of confidence in the New Orleans Saints passer comes from ESPN staff writer Bill Barnwell, who sorted various MVP candidates around the league into tiers before choosing Winston as his favorite option in “Tier IV.” Here’s what he wrote:

“I’m tempted to pick Fitzpatrick, given that the Harvard product is joining a Washington team with a great defense and has actually been a very good quarterback for most of the past two seasons. But Winston is the easy pick here. Playing for Sean Payton with Michael Thomas at wide receiver behind an excellent Saints offensive line, Winston has the chance to blow away expectations and his previously established label as a gaffe-prone quarterback. He certainly could lose the quarterback competition in camp to Hill and spend the entire year on the bench, but we’re looking for the highest upside, not the highest floor.”

Now here’s the caveat, which you could probably guess: the other long-shots Barnwell lumped Winston with include Fitzpatrick, Taysom Hill, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, and Winston’s predecessor Teddy Bridgewater. That isn’t exactly a group of world beaters.

For comparison, the oddsmakers at BetMGM gave Winston a slightly better shot at winning MVP (+5,000) than his own teammate, Alvin Kamara (+6,600; only four running backs have won the award since 2000). Of the other quarterbacks in Barnwell’s tier, Winston ranks well ahead of Fitzpatrick, Dalton, and Bridgewater (+15,000 each). Neither Hill nor Taylor are even listed.

But the real takeaway here is that Winston has a long way to go before he’ll win any respect around this league. He still has a reputation as a mistake-prone gunslinger. There are real doubts about whether he can command the Saints locker room and lead this team back to the playoffs. Let’s see if he can prove the doubters wrong.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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ESPN makes case that Bills’ Josh Allen could be even better in 2021

ESPN makes case that #Bills’ Josh Allen could be even better in 2021:

The 2018 NFL draft class, which featured five quarterbacks being taken in the first round including four in the top-10, continues to be a topic of great interest.

With three seasons now under their belts, some of those quarterbacks have had great success with the teams that selected them, while others have since found new homes.

It is a draft that may remain fresh for many Bills fans as it was when Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane made the move up the board to a select franchise quarterback in Josh Allen.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell aimed this week to project how these quarterbacks would play in 2021 and beyond. And he began with the QB who had the most success last season, which was Allen.

In the analysis, it was pointed out that quarterbacks like Allen who play at such a high, breakout level, could take a step back. However, with Allen. some signs point to the opposite, per ESPN:

Quarterbacks who grow as dramatically as Allen did last season often take a step backward the following year. This was likely the first time in his entire life that he was this accurate of a passer. The most recent year is the most valuable year we have in terms of evidence when evaluating a player, but it’s not the only year that matters. At the same time, he could take a meaningful step backward and still be an above-average quarterback in 2021, given how effective he was last season.

Having said that, I think you could also make a feasible case that Allen might even get better in 2021. He’s getting back virtually everyone of consequence from last year’s team outside of swapping out John Brown for Emmanuel Sanders. The Bills did get healthy seasons out of most of their stars on offense, including Stefon Diggs and Dion Dawkins, but Brown missed nearly half the season, and starting guards Cody Ford and Jon Feliciano combined to miss 16 games. This offense would look a lot worse if Diggs went down injured, but you could say that about a lot of teams without their top wideout. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, whose growth alongside Allen has been similarly shocking and impressive, also returns. The pieces are there for him to do this again.

At the 2018 draft, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Allen, and Josh Rosen were selected at picks one, three, seven, and 10, respectively, while Lamar Jackson was taken in the final pick of the first round at 32 overall. Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs last season while Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP award in 2019. Allen had a historical year for the Bills in 2020, leading the team to the AFC Championship game.

Meanwhile, Rosen is on his fourth team in the San Francisco 49ers on the depth chart while Sam Darnold is looking to secure his position as an NFL starter with the Carolina Panthers.

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Jags had one of the NFL’s better offseasons, per ESPN

Though he liked many of the additions, Bill Barnwell found the decisions to sign Tim Tebow and draft Travis Etienne questionable.

With a new head coach and general manager coming to town, the 2021 offseason was a crucial one as Jacksonville attempts to rebuild yet again. They got the most important piece in place by drafting a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence with pick No. 1, and every other move is secondary to that, given the position’s value.

But quarterback wasn’t the only area of need for the team, and it made several moves this offseason to address other roster weaknesses, especially in the secondary with the additions of Shaquill Griffin and Rayshan Jenkins. The team also added an experienced receiver in Detroit’s Marvin Jones, who is coming off a 978-yard season.

Given these moves, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranks Jacksonville’s offseason No. 13 in the league, a respectable position, but one that could have been better. Barnwell has several issues with the moves the Jags made, and most of them stem from the perception that Meyer is in over his head.

He mentions the controversy surrounding the hiring of Chris Doyle as the strength coach. Doyle was accused of racism by multiple players when he held the same role at Iowa, and though Meyer quickly dismissed him when the story made headlines, he should have had the foresight to not hire Doyle given the allegations against him.

Barnwell criticized some roster moves as well, most notably the signing of Tim Tebow as a tight end. Many have been critical of the decision, as it has given off the perception that Meyer was giving an unearned opportunity to his longtime friend.

Barnwell also didn’t look favorably upon the decision to draft Travis Etienne with the 25th pick, especially considering the decreasing value of the running back position. James Robinson was very productive in 2020 as an undrafted rookie, and after signing Carlos Hyde as a free agent, it’s understandable to argue that the value for Etienne just wasn’t there, especially because Meyer has indicated that he will be used more as a role player than an every-down back.

Though the Jaguars undoubtedly improved this offseason (after all, there was nowhere to go but up), Meyer certainly took several gambles as he attempted to learn the ropes of the NFL. And ultimately, the quality of this offseason in retrospect, aside from drafting Lawrence, will depend on if those gambles are successful.

ESPN predicts the Drew Brees-less Saints will miss the 2021 playoffs

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell predicts the New Orleans Saints will miss the 2021 NFL playoffs without Drew Brees and their salary cap casualties.

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ESPN’s Bill Barnwell picked the New Orleans Saints as one team he doesn’t expect to see in the playoffs next season, with their projected losses mounting too high for the team to overcome after Drew Brees moves on to his expected retirement.

It’s bad enough to see the Saints out of the 2021 playoff picture altogether. But the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Barnwell’s projected No. 1 seed, and the always-rebuilding Atlanta Falcons are one of his choices to sneak in as a wild-card team. Just how bad does he expect the Saints to be? Here’s some of his explanation:

“The New Orleans Saints are the team most conspicuous by their absence, but you can probably guess why I’m skeptical. Drew Brees‘ expected retirement and the $100-plus-million cap hole the Saints find themselves in heading into 2021 mean this roster will be significantly less talented than the one we saw over the past several seasons. Coach Sean Payton is still going to be an offensive genius, but New Orleans’ 2021 season feels like it could be similar to the Patriots’ 2020.”

Barnwell added that he doesn’t envy the Saints’ chances against a first-place schedule without Brees and any salary cap casualties, but that’s a challenge the team has overcome in recent seasons, having won 13, 13, and 12 games after earning first-place schedules (and going 8-1 without Brees starting at quarterback).

New Orleans is the only team in the NFC to reach the postseason in each of the last four years (the Eagles, Rams, and Seahawks have each done so three times), making them one of two teams in the entire league to reach the playoffs in that span (along with the Chiefs).

Maybe things look different in the fall after a Saints offseason full of painful losses. But this is quite a pessimistic view to start off with.


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Are the Philadelphia Eagles the worst 0-2 team in the NFL?

The Philadelphia Eagles landed behind the Houston Texans in a ranking of 11 0-2 NFL teams in 2020

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The Philadelphia Eagles entered the 2020 NFL regular season with legitimate playoff hopes and a team that was constructed to compete for another division title. Through two games, the Eagles are currently winless and enthralled in a frustrating two-game slump.

There are 11 0-2 teams in the NFL currently and Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com ranked them from worst to the best. Things are bleak in Philadelphia right now, but Barnwell ranked the Birds at No. 2 on the list behind the winless Houston Texans.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
Preseason playoff chances: 63.5%
Current playoff chances: 10.1%

Of all the teams on this list, the Eagles might be the one whose fans thought they were least likely to begin the year 0-2. When the schedule was released and every fan went through it, marking off wins and losses for the upcoming season, you know there isn’t an Eagles fan on the planet who suggested that they would lose to Washington in Week 1. The matchup with the Rams in Week 2 was tougher, but Philadelphia was at home against a team traveling to the East Coast for an early Sunday kickoff, and the Eagles beat L.A. in 2017 and 2018.

The Eagles have yet to play a complete game as a team and on paper, this group as constructed should be performing significantly better than they have through what seems like two badly played preseason games.

with three straight tough games against the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, the Eagles need to beat the Bengals and start those two straight road games off with some positive momentum.

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Cowboys 2020 story will be written in regression to, progression past the mean

Under former head coach Jason Garrett, the Dallas Cowboys rode a roller coaster of an existence. As an interim hire in 2010, the team rebounded from a 1-7 start under midseason-deposed Wade Phillips, to a 5-3 finish under the man who was hired as OC …

Under former head coach Jason Garrett, the Dallas Cowboys rode a roller coaster of an existence. As an interim hire in 2010, the team rebounded from a 1-7 start under midseason-deposed Wade Phillips, to a 5-3 finish under the man who was hired as OC before the head coach. Garrett’s water then found its level, with the club finishing 8-8 for three consecutive seasons.

Just as Tony Romo started to solve the quarterbacking Rubik’s Cube, his health started to go for good and a 12-4 campaign in 2014 was followed by 4-12 when he only finished two games and subsequently saw the team luck into his replacement in Dak Prescott. The club has won more than they lost since then, by a wide margin, but in the last three seasons failed to approach the greatness of Prescott’s first campaign in 2016 that finished 13-3. A return to 8-8 with Garrett and his staff existing without a safety net ended with their dismissal and the hiring of Mike McCarthy.

There are numerous micro explanations and statistical forays into what went wrong and what could correct things, but the tried and true edict that close games in the NFL are a coin flip rings true in Dallas more than any other city.

The team’s roller-coaster results travel along tracks hammered into the ground with regression-to-the-mean stakes. When looking ahead to 2020, progress in close games seems logical, almost promised.

ESPN’s statistical savant Bill Barnwell recently dove into which teams should improve from their 2019 selves and which should backslide, and he went into great detail as to why the Cowboys are one of the teams that should zoom past their previous-season win total. The reasoning, the close-game swings.

The Cowboys were plus-6 in one-score games in 2018 and minus-5 in those same games in 2019. That’s an 11-game swing over the course of two seasons. Since 1989, just five other teams have dealt with an 11-win swing or more in close games, one of which will be appearing later in this column. To get something resembling a significant sample, we have to expand a bit and consider the teams that had a negative swing of eight games or more. When teams typically undergo that sort of swing from year to year, what happens in the third season?

They almost always improve. Of the 27 teams that fell off by eight or more wins in close games, 23 improved the following season, while one stayed at their prior record and only three declined. Three of the four teams that didn’t improve either replaced their quarterback by choice or via injury, including last year’s Panthers, who got only two injury-hampered games from Cam Newton. The 27 teams improved by an average of 2.7 wins the following year and won just over 46% of their close games. Dallas should be better in those one-score games in 2020.

In a nutshell, Barnwell discusses how teams that are lopsided on one side of the curve tend to swing to the other the following year, and the 2019 Cowboys were already an example of this.

The 10-win 2018 team was not all they were cracked up to be, as witnessed by a late-season road shutout to Indianapolis, an in-retrospect gift from Seattle’s run-first, run-last script in the Wild-Card game and then a drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round.

Out of the Cowboys 10 wins, an astounding eight of them came in close games, with the club finishing 8-2 in games decided by one score. That record plummeted to 0-5 in 2019. Again, the NFL has proven year over year that close game records are not indicators of team strength; blowout wins are.

The Cowboys finished 8-3 in games decided by multiple scores.

Cowboys Wire’s weekly EPA power rankings (exquisitely compiled by Dan Morse) consistently showed Dallas’ ceiling as high in 2019.

The team was a top-5 passing club and a top-5 rushing club by expected points added (EPA). They entered Week 17 ranked sixth in opponent-adjusted EPA before throttling Washington by 31 points.

They were the first team since the 1989 Bengals to finish +100 in scoring differential and fail to win at least nine games.

As Barnwell points out, the team should improve on their record, even if their offensive dips slightly.

With better luck, Dallas would project as one of the best teams in football, given that it was one of those teams a year ago. If anything, it wouldn’t shock me if the Cowboys actually were a little worse on a play-by-play basis and still improved their record anyway. . .

This sounds like a simple concept, and I’m sure longtime readers aren’t hearing anything new when I say this, but the simple reality of the NFL is that the easiest way to find which teams are likely to improve or decline the following season is to look at their record in close games.

Garrett finished his time in Dallas with a 85-67 overall record, but 42-36 in games decided by seven points or less. While McCarthy was in Green Bay, where he won a Super Bowl and finished with a career mark of 125-77-2, he was 48-40-2 in one-score contests. The win percentages in close games is similar (.538 for Garrett, .545 for McCarthy), but in two-score-or-more games, McCarthy’s had much better success (.675 to .581).

The obvious rub here, is that the Cowboys are faced with the daunting task of working in a new system under the cloud of Covid-19. McCarthy hasn’t had any of the regular teaching sessions afforded new head coaches, and instead went until late July before having any semblance of official interaction with his draft picks, free agents and returning veterans. Missing rookie camps, OTAs and minicamps may not be a death sentence to expectations, but it seems reasonable their loss will make the terrain much more difficult to travail.

If those hurdles can be overcome though, simply by playing the percentages the Cowboys should be in a great position to progress past average and into a contender’s role.

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Bill Barnwell likes the Bucs’ offensive weapons heading into 2020

A new cast of characters has helped the Buccaneers climb the standings in Bill Barnwell’s latest piece.

If there was a Lombardi Trophy for winning the offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be crowned champs of 2020. Not only did the team sign six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady to take over under center, they also swung a trade with the Patriots to bring along his favorite tight end Rob Gronkowski, who ended his one-year retirement to reunite Brady in Tampa.

The pair will be joining an offense that already features two Pro Bowl wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Plus, tight end O.J. Howard seems poised for a big year playing alongside Brady.

Bill Barnwell over at ESPN loves the look of this Bucs offense, and ranked them fourth on his list of best offensive weapons heading into 2020.

Here is Barnwell’s reasoning:

“While a drop in possessions is likely to drag down their cumulative numbers, the Bucs have a strong case for sporting the NFL’s best receiving corps. They have the best one-two punch at wide receiver in the game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — who solved his fumble problems and emerged as a great second option. The only downside is that Tampa Bay didn’t really replace third wideout Breshad Perriman, who was one of the league’s most productive wideouts in December after Evans and Godwin went down injured.

“No team is deeper at tight end with O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate and now Rob Gronkowski. Even if we only see the guy whose numbers declined in 2018, Gronk posted a 47-682-3 line and finished 11th among tight ends in fantasy football. With a year to rest his ailing back, he has more red zone upside than that line would suggest.”

Barnwell also turns his attention to the Bucs’ backfield, suggesting a veteran running back may be needed to give this team some further insurance on offense.

“As was the case a year ago, though, the Buccaneers have the worst group of running backs in football. Ronald Jones improved after a dismal rookie campaign, but his issues with fumbles and pass protection make it difficult to expect Bruce Arians to give the 2018 second-rounder significant volume. The only players of note behind Jones are rookie third-rounder Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Dare Ogunbowale. This is a team crying out for a veteran back such as Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller or LeSean McCoy.”

The Buccaneers found themselves at No. 14 on Barnwell’s list last season, so they’ve made a tremendous jump up the rankings. The pressure is on to deliver in 2020.

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Where do Vikings rank as far as offensive weapons are concerned?

The Vikings still have Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, but what happens after that?

In each of the last two years, the Vikings have ranked fifth in Bill Barnwell’s offensive weapons rankings over at ESPN.

The team fell quite a bit in this year’s ranking, dipping all the way back to No. 17.

While the team still has Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the team did trade Stefon Diggs to the Bills. That’s obviously a huge hit for the team.

There is hope that rookie Justin Jefferson can help fill Diggs’ shoes, but that’s a tall task. The team also signed free agent Tajae Sharpe to a one-year deal.

One thing to watch among offensive weapons this season is the progression of tight end Irv Smith Jr. As a rookie, Smith showed plenty of potential. Could he become one of the better pass-catching tight ends during his second season?

To round out the NFC North, the Packers rank 19th, the Lions rank 25th and the Bears rank 28th.

You can check out Barnwell’s full rankings here.

 

ESPN: Cowboys’ offensive weapons ranked tops in NFC

The combination of Ezekiel Elliott plus a lethal trio of WRs puts Dallas in the top 3 of all NFL clubs in terms of skill-position players.

The Dallas Cowboys are racing toward the deadline to get franchise quarterback Dak Prescott inked to a long-term contract. At stake is nothing less than the future of the sport’s flagship team for the next five years or more.

Get Prescott signed, and the Cowboys are an immediate contender for the next half-dozen Super Bowls. Let July 15 pass without a deal, and Prescott is still wearing the star for 2020 for sure… but anything beyond that is a dicey proposition. And according to ESPN, that could be wasting an impressive- and dramatically improved- array of offensive talent that the organization has put into place around Prescott over the past two seasons.

Bill Barnwell, staff writer for the Worldwide Leader, has put each team’s roster under the microscope and ranked all 32 clubs based on the skill-position talent surrounding their quarterback. While he emphatically points out that his list does not factor in the impact of the quarterback, offensive line, or scheme, it’s still an accurate barometer of how good a team may be.

Barnwell places the Cowboys third-best in the NFL, and tops in the NFC. That’s way, way, way up from a dismal ranking of 30th in 2018.

Only the Chiefs and Browns are slotted higher on the list, ranked 1 and 2, respectively.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott looks to be a force once again for the Cowboys. Now the league leader in rushing yards per game over three of the past four seasons has complementary threats in the receiving corps, preventing defenses from being able to stack the box against him.

Investing in the playmaking positions was the key, Barnwell says. Of course, trading for Amari Cooper turned out to be a shrewd move. But the rapid ascension of Michael Gallup has been just as important. “The only third-round pick to produce more yards in his second season as a pro is Mike Wallace,” Barnwell writes, “with Gallup coming in ahead of guys such as T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Golladay, and Terrell Owens.”

Add to the mix the highly-touted rookie CeeDee Lamb, “who would profile as the No. 1 wideout for a handful of teams right now,” and Dallas is loaded at wide receiver.

The only reason the Cowboys don’t rank higher than third, Barnwell nitpicks, is having a less-than-elite name playing tight end. New starter Blake Jarwin “was productive in a small sample last season, ranking eighth in the league in yards per route run and 11th in yards per target. There’s no way he is going to see significant volume with the other four guys in this offense ahead of him, but if Jarwin can maintain that sort of efficiency, Dallas won’t have any weaknesses.”

Unless, that is, they decide to rely on a backup rifleman to handle that stockpile of next-gen firepower as their long-range plan of attack.

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What could have Chargers done differently this offseason?

There is a certain positional group for the Los Angeles Chargers that remains a mystery.

The Chargers offseason has nearly come to an end.

After a slew of solid acquisitions via free agency and the draft, their 90-man roster is becoming clear. When taking a glimpse at their roster, they’re talented from top to bottom.

However, there are still positional groups that have question marks over them. One of them is the left tackle position. After trading away Russell Okung, Los Angeles failed to find his replacement.

The decision to bring in a rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert, and elect to not get him a viable blindside blocker is questionable.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell concurs.

Barnwell ranked all 32 team’s offseasons and analyzed their moves. Signing or drafting a left tackle is something that he believes L.A. should have taken care of.

Instead of trading up for and drafting linebacker Kenneth Murray, the analyst thinks the Chargers should’ve stayed put, selected a middle linebacker in the middle rounds and used their second-round pick to take a tackle like Ezra Cleveland.

I would have stayed put and trusted that I could find a middle linebacker in the middle rounds or in free agency to rotate with Denzel Perryman. The Chargers likely wouldn’t have been able to find a plug-and-play left tackle in the second round, but adding someone like Ezra Cleveland as an option would have left them in better shape than moving forward with Sam Tevi, Trent Scott and Trey Pipkins.

Addressing the linebacker position was a need this offseason, and Los Angeles had their eyes solely on Murray to fill the room out and get a Day 1 contributor, which is why they moved up 14 spots to get him, sacrificing their third-round pick.

“Off-ball linebackers just aren’t that hard to come by, and the Chargers essentially valued Murray as a top-15 pick by sending their second- and third-rounders to move up and acquire him. Murray has to turn into a Pro Bowl-caliber player for this move to work,” Barnwell said.

Los Angeles is banking on their in-house options, and they’re hopeful that the new offensive scheme and offensive line guru James Campen will help mask any deficiencies. It’s a high risk, high reward situation to rely on Sam Tevi, Trey Pipkins, Storm Norton or Trent Scott.

If they don’t feel comfortable with their guys after all, Jason Peters, the veteran tackle, remains a free agent.

“While Peters has been popularly linked to a return with the Eagles, L.A. is the best possible landing spot for the 38-year-old tackle. The moves this organization made this offseason suggest it’s trying to win now, even as it retools at quarterback. Peters wasn’t at his Hall of Fame best in 2019 and probably won’t be again in 2020, but he would be a massive upgrade on the likes of Tevi, Scott and Pipkins.”