Tag: Big Ten Basketball

Big Ten race goes down to the wire with Wisconsin having a shot

The Big Ten race

The last week of the Big Ten basketball regular season is upon us. This is March.

The Wisconsin Badgers were 6-6 and in the middle of the Big Ten one month ago. Now they are 12-6, and with the Maryland Terrapins losing to the Michigan State Spartans this past Saturday, Wisconsin is within ONE game of the Terps for the regular-season league championship!

The Maryland Terrapins do not have a piece-of-cake schedule this week. They must go to Rutgers — not an easy place to win this season — and then host Michigan, which has become a better road team of late, having won at Rutgers and Purdue not too long ago.

If Wisconsin beats Northwestern and Indiana and Maryland can’t sweep these final two games, Wisconsin will get a share of the regular-season Big Ten title. What an extraordinary achievement that would be. Given that Northwestern at home should be a very manageable game (to put it politely), Saturday afternoon’s visit to Bloomington and Assembly Hall could have title implications for the Badgers. If UW beats Northwestern, it will clinch one of the four coveted double byes in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin fans can rest assured that they won’t have to attend a Thursday game at the Big Ten tourney unless they want to spend time scouting the opposition. (We all have to make our own choices in life.)

What about the other teams one game back of Maryland?

Michigan State is at Penn State and home against Ohio State.

Illinois is at Ohio State and is home against Iowa.

One can very easily imagine Michigan State and Illinois losing at least one of those two games. If that scenario unfolds, Wisconsin’s head-to-head win over Maryland means that if UW and the Terps are tied at 14-6 atop the Big Ten, with MSU and Illinois one game back at 13-7, the Badgers would be the No. 1 seed for the Big Ten Tournament.

All that’s left is to play the games. Let’s see which Big Ten team comes out on top. That the Badgers have a real chance tells you all you need to know about the dramatic nature of this team’s turnaround since Feb. 1 against Michigan State.

Wisconsin really could become Big Ten’s 2nd-highest-seeded team

Amazing bracketology possibilities for UW

You read that story title correctly: “Wisconsin really could become (the) Big Ten’s second-highest-seeded team.”

I am not referring to being the No. 2 seed at the 2020 Big Ten Tournament in a week and a half.

I am referring to the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

Before I dive into the details, can we stop for a moment and note how utterly CRAZY this is?

Wisconsin, the team which started 5-5; Wisconsin, the team which was 6-6 through 12 Big Ten Conference games this season; Wisconsin, the team which lost one starter and then played Michigan State without two of its regular starters; Wisconsin, the team which couldn’t even tie its shoelaces against a not-very-good Minnesota squad on Feb. 5 — that Wisconsin could become the Big Ten team with the second-highest seeding in the conference at the NCAA Tournament.

Yes, it is not LIKELY that this will happen. Wisconsin has very little margin for error — one could argue, ZERO margin for error — if it wants to attain this distinction. However, it is ENTIRELY possible, and something happened earlier on Saturday which increased the chances that this turn of events could unfold.

Penn State has been a No. 4 seed in bracketology for weeks. The Nittany Lions, however, have cooled down in recent weeks, and Iowa stopped PSU on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

Chris Dobbertean, who does an excellent job at Blogging The Bracket, provided his 1-68 seed list earlier this past week, on Feb. 25, BEFORE Tuesday night’s Big Ten action. Maryland is, of course, going to get the highest NCAA Tournament seed of any Big Ten team. The Terrapins are likely to get a No. 2 seed. The rest of the conference is hard to seed at this point.

Dobbertean’s Tuesday afternoon seed list had Penn State at No. 4, Michigan State and Iowa at No. 5, Ohio State at No. 6, and Wisconsin at No. 7.

Given what we have seen from the Big Ten over the past few days — Tuesday night through Saturday afternoon, before the Michigan State-Maryland game Saturday evening — Wisconsin has a real chance to move up, while other Big Ten teams move down.

First of all, Penn State’s loss to Iowa likely drops the Nittany Lions to a No. 5 seed. Second, Iowa lost to Michigan State but beat PSU, probably remaining at a 5 seed. Ohio State beating Nebraska on Thursday is a placeholder win; it won’t change the Buckeyes’ seed. Wisconsin’s win at Michigan — a quality road win — should move the Badgers up to a No. 6 seed. It is hardly out of the question to consider Wisconsin a 5 seed given the Badgers’ wins over top-25 teams.

Right now, Michigan State — having beaten Iowa earlier in the week — is the non-Maryland team most likely to finish ahead of Wisconsin on the seed list. Yet, if the Spartans lose two or three games in the remainder of the season, that can change. Assuming Michigan State does lose twice, Wisconsin — with a very manageable end to its Big Ten regular-season schedule — could enter the Big Ten Tournament on an eight-game winning streak. Two more wins — creating a 10-game winning streak and putting UW in the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament — would make a No. 5 seed relatively safe. A Big Ten Tournament title would put the Badgers at No. 4, which is realistically this team’s ceiling.

I wouldn’t expect Wisconsin to be a 4 seed, but we could certainly see a scenario in which Penn State and Michigan State stall out, and Wisconsin joins one or both of those teams as a 5 seed while Ohio State and Iowa finish as No. 6 seeds.

Wisconsin would have only one Big Ten team seeded higher than the Badgers on Selection Sunday.

Again: It’s not likely, but it’s possible, and the fact that we are merely talking about this is enough of a commentary on how much the Badgers have reshaped their season over the past three weeks.

For the first time this season, Michigan State Basketball is an underdog at Maryland

Michigan State Basketball has been favored in every game this season… until today, when they face Maryland on the road.

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Michigan State Basketball is in Maryland today to faceoff against the top team in the Big Ten, and this will be the first time this season that MSU is heading into a game as the underdog. BetMGM currently has the Spartans at +2.5 against the 23-5 Maryland Terrapins.

Odds via BetMGM. Access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 2/29/20 at 12:30 p.m. ET. 

The Spartans are coming off of a big win at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes while the Terrapins barely escaped Minnesota on Wednesday night, winning that contest 74-73.

 Given that this game is on the road, it makes sense that MSU is the underdog in this one against a Maryland team that has played suffocating defense all season.

“Want to get in on the action? Place your bet now at BetMGM.”

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Iowa becomes the focal point of 5-way Big Ten race for double byes

Iowa is a team to watch

Fran McCaffery is the coach fans of other Big Ten schools love to hate. He has the hot temper, the pugnacious attitude, the nasty streak. Yet, while the Iowa coach is a lightning rod and an object of gleeful derision when the Hawkeyes lose, it remains that Fran might help another Big Ten team (in addition to his own) secure a double bye at the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

You don’t WANT to send a gift basket to Fran McCaffery, but if you get a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament courtesy of an Iowa win, you might have to… and this is the position Wisconsin inhabits heading into the final two weeks of the 2020 Big Ten regular season.

When you look at the remaining schedules for the five Big Ten teams which are tied at 10-6 in the conference standings, two details stand out: One is that Northwestern plays three of the five teams — Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State — while Michigan State and Iowa don’t get another shot at the Wildcats.

The other detail is that Iowa is the only team of the five which plays three of the other four Big Ten teams in this five-way logjam.

Wisconsin plays none of the other four teams, which is why the Badgers have such a good shot at a double bye (though by no means a guarantee).

Illinois plays only one of the other four teams in the five-way tie.

Penn State plays two.

Michigan State plays two.

Iowa plays three: Michigan State, Penn State, and Illinois, missing only Wisconsin.

Penn State and Michigan State play each other in the coming weeks. Since Iowa plays PSU and MSU, what we have, essentially, is a three-team round-robin involving Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State. Wisconsin (like Illinois) is hoping that Iowa goes 1-1 in its two games against Penn State and Michigan State, and that all three teams — UI, PSU, and MSU — split their games in that three-team group.

Iowa, though, is the true epicenter of the Big Ten’s race for double byes at the conference tournament. No one wants Fran McCaffery to do TOO well, but no one in the upper tier of the Big Ten wants him to be a complete failure down the stretch, either.

Northwestern is a bad team, but it will affect the Big Ten race

Northwestern and the Big Ten race

Remember when Northwestern basketball was decent — not NCAA Tournament-level good, but NIT-level good? Merely being an NIT team would seem like paradise for Northwestern right now, given how far (and how quickly) the Wildcats have fallen since making their first-ever NCAA Tournament in 2017. Northwestern is 1-15 in the Big Ten, 6-20 overall, and is immersed in an 11-game losing streak. The Wildcats and the Nebraska Cornhuskers have both been buried at the bottom of the Big Ten throughout the season. They have become the two teams everyone in the Big Ten wants to play… which leads us to the point of this article:

Northwestern, as bad as it is and as off-the-radar as it has been this season, will play a role in shaping the Big Ten race for three double byes at the conference tournament in a few weeks. The Wildcats might not win any of the games they play, but their remaining schedule is one of several plot points in the five-way race for the second, third, and fourth seeds at the Big Ten Tournament.

The five Big Ten teams tied for second place at 10-6 in the conference are Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. Of those five teams, none play Nebraska, so that’s an easy win opportunity none of those teams have in the next two weeks. This leaves Northwestern as the team everyone wants to have on the schedule.

As it turns out, three of the five Big Ten teams tied for second have the Wildcats on their remaining slate: Wisconsin is one, which is why the Badgers have to like their path to a double bye. Illinois and Penn State are the other teams which have Northwestern on their schedule. Iowa and Michigan State have the objectively harder paths to a double bye.

Northwestern will try to play spoiler in the coming weeks. Whether the Wildcats can do so in a meaningful way is another matter. Nevertheless, the fact that three of the Big Ten teams tied for second play Northwestern in the coming weeks — while two don’t — certainly stands out as a good reason to favor some teams over others in the race for a Big Ten Tournament double bye.

Basketball ranked choice voting: Who gets the Big Ten double byes?

Big Ten Madness

Not every state in the United States has ranked choice voting, but the Big Ten will essentially have that in the next few weeks. While getting a No. 2 seed might be moderately more favorable than a 3 seed at the Big Ten Tournament, we really don’t know how much that means. It will all depend on the matchups. What we can much more definitively say is that getting a top-four seed matters a lot. Teams don’t want to have to play four games at the Big Ten Tournament, the week before the NCAA Tournament. They want to start their Big Ten Tournament on a Friday and let the other teams in the league slug it out on Second-Round Thursday.

Therefore, what we have in the league right now is a ranked-choice-style complication, essentially. When voters in localities participate in a ranked-choice election, they get to choose not only their first preference, but their order of preference for the other candidates on the ballot. Ranked choice voting is sometimes referred to as an “instant runoff,” in the sense that as the lowest-finishing candidates get eliminated by round (each new round of voting tabulations occurs if no candidate gets a majority of votes in the previous round), the field is gradually whittled down until a winner is determined.

In this case, the five Big Ten teams at 10-6 — occupying spots two through six in the conference — aren’t necessarily trying to win second place in the conference, though they certainly wouldn’t complain about that outcome. The real goal for those five teams is to finish in the top three of that five-team cluster.

Finishing third within that cluster means a No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a double bye. Teams want to avoid finishing fourth or fifth in that five-team group. Finishing fourth in the five-team group means a No. 5 seed and a game on Second-Round Thursday against the 12 or 13 seed. Finishing fifth in the five-team group means a Second-Round Thursday game against the Big Ten’s No. 11 or 14 seed.

Let’s map out the paths for the five teams tied for second at 10-6 in the Big Ten:

Wisconsin visits Michigan, hosts Minnesota and Northwestern, and visits Indiana.

Illinois visits Northwestern, hosts Indiana, visits Ohio State, and hosts Iowa.

Michigan State hosts Iowa, visits Maryland and Penn State, and then hosts Ohio State.

Penn State hosts Rutgers, visits Iowa, hosts Michigan State, and visits Northwestern.

Iowa visits Michigan State, hosts Penn State and Purdue, and visits Illinois.

Let the fun — and the instant runoff vote — begin!

5-way tie for second in Big Ten? This is ONLY February

Big Ten Madness

Which is the second-best team in the Big Ten? Which is the sixth-best team in the Big Ten? Do legitimate answers even exist in a season this crazy? The Big Ten is a land of parity and balance in 2020, with Maryland leading the pack and a large group of teams bunched together a few games behind the Terrapins.

The second-place team in the Big Ten right now is also the sixth-best team in the league, because spots two through six are all shared. Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, and the Wisconsin Badgers are all part of a five-car pileup at 10-6 in the conference, two games behind 12-4 Maryland. Michigan — 4-7 in the Big Ten at one point — is the only other Big Ten team with fewer than eight conference losses. Rutgers, at 9-8, is in eighth place. The rest of the conference is no better than .500 in league play.

It doesn’t make sense that in a season when Big Ten basketball teams fluctuate so wildly between their very best versions of themselves, and their absolute worst iterations, so many of them have settled in at four games above .500 with just four games left in the conference season. Yeah, Nebraska and Northwestern are providing conference victories for everyone else, but the volatility throughout the league — from spots one through 12, excluding the two NU schools — would seem to suggest that there shouldn’t be five schools at 10-6 with one game left to play in February.

It is that rarest of seasons in which teams never rise too high or fall too far. Ohio State and Michigan both went into tailspins but just as surely regrouped to solidify their places in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota and Purdue are the only non-NU teams in the Big Ten this season which went on a downturn and couldn’t rescue themselves. (Minnesota gets one last chance to potentially save its season when it hosts Maryland. That is a must-win for the Gophers, no questions asked.)

It’s a happy occurrence for the Big Ten in this first season after the reign of Jim Delany as commissioner. All these NCAA Tournament bids — 10 — offer lots of chances to fill league coffers. That much is clear. As for who is the second — or sixth — best team in the conference? Your guess is as good as mine.

No. 24 Michigan State Basketball vs. No. 17 Iowa: Where to watch, listen, stream

Michigan State hosts the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Breslin Center Tuesday. Here is everything you need to know to follow along with the game.

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With only four games left in the regular season, Michigan State is still technically within reach of a regular-season Big Ten championship, although they will need to sweep their last games and get some additional losses from teams like Maryland. First, they host Iowa, and here is everything you need to know to watch, listen, or stream the game.

Match-up: No. 17 Iowa (19-8) @ No. 24 Michigan State (18-9)

Game time: Tuesday, Feb. 25 at 7 pm ET

Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan

TV channel:  ESPN

Online live stream:  WatchESPN

Online radio broadcast:  TuneIn

Radio: Complete list of Michigan State basketball radio affiliates.

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Five Most Important Players: MSU Basketball vs. Iowa

Michigan State basketball is facing another great Big Ten team in the Iowa Hawkeyes this week. Here are the 5 most important players.

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Another Big Ten matchup is here. This time, Michigan State basketball plays against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is ranked no. 20 in the nation and features one of the best Big Ten players in Luka Garza. Michigan State must play their best game this year to beat the Hawkeyes.

Here are the five most important players in this game:

1. Cassius Winston

Normally, I do not include Cassius Winston on my 5 most important player lists but this game is really important. Thus, Cassius must lead the Spartans to victory against Iowa. MSU needs at least 23 points from Winston. Furthermore, he must trim down the turnovers. He averages 3.2 so far this season and must turn the ball over less than three times against the Hawkeyes.

2. Marcus Bingham Jr.

As I’ve said before, Iowa boasts an elite talent in Luka Garza. Garza is 6’11”, the same height as Marcus Bingham Jr. So Izzo will likely put Bingham Jr. on Garza during this game. Bingham has faired well against Big Ten big men including Kofi Cockburn. Garza is a different kind of animal though. Bingham’s defensive performance will dictate the outcome of this game.

3. Xavier Tillman

Luka Garza is not just an offensive monster, he is a really good rebounder. So naturally, Xavier Tillman is also one of the most important MSU players in this game. Tillman is a defensive anchor who can help out against Garza in the post. Furthermore, Tillman swallows up rebounds at an impressive rate. He will have to play aggressively and intelligently against Iowa.

4. Aaron Henry

I will never ever take Aaron Henry off this list. He can swing just about any game with an efficient offensive performance. Likewise, his good defensive performances go a long way for the Spartans. 15-plus points from Henry can do a lot for Michigan State against the Hawkeyes. Especially if another key Spartan player shows up…

5. Gabe Brown

Gabe Brown went crazy against Nebraska with 17 points, shooting 63% from three-point land. Can Brown do this again on Tuesday against Iowa? Yes, he certainly can. Will Gabe Brown score 17 points or more? Only time will tell. One fact remains, he is immensely important to Michigan State’s success.

Watch the game live on ESPN2 this Tuesday, on Feb. 25 at 7 P.M.

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Locked On Spartans Podcast: A B1G week of basketball, Mel Tucker is crootin’

The Big Ten basketball season has the potential to get very wild this week.

Wil and Matt talk about the crazy weekend that was in college basketball. Then they riff on the Big Ten race and how this MSU team stacks up to previous MSU teams. Finally, Mel Tucker gets compared to a modern day baseball player and it makes sense.

You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

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