Tag: Astros Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (86-72) and Seattle Mariners (85-72) meet for the Wednesday finale of a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 9-3

Houston took the series opener 5-1 and then dropped a 6-2 decision Tuesday. The Astros are just 1-4 over their last 5 games and 2-6 across their last 8.

Seattle had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback. In winning 9-of-12 from the Astros so far, the Mariners have won a season series against Houston for the 1st time since 2018.

The Astros head into Wednesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Valdez (12-11, 3.39 ERA) is tabbed for his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 194 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 10 K in 7-5 home loss vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
  • 2023 road stats: 8-3, 3.42 ERA in 92 IP across 14 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 1-1, 3.98 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2021-23)

Miller (8-6, 4.17 ERA) makes his 25th start. He owns a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 8-5 loss at Texas Rangers Friday
  • 2023 Home stats: 5-2, 3.34 ERA in 70 IP across 13 starts
  • Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 0.00 ERA in 12 1/3 IP in 2 starts (2023)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 4

Moneyline

The Astros lineup went just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position Tuesday, and clutch failures like that one are frequent in the club’s recent losses.

The 2 starters in this meeting have just some slight fade in their analytics. but Miller carries a bit more due to perhaps a bit more luck despite some unattractive barrel rates. Add in a bit of a recent slide for the Seattle bullpen, a unit likely more fatigued at the back end than its counterparts in this game.

Houston is 5-1 in its last 6 season finales. BACK THE ASTROS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Peg the Astros as a lean here. In a game with an Over lean, consider a line watch: back the Astros -1.5 at +140 or better. AVOID otherwise.

Over/Under

The Over was a losing lean Monday. Tuesday’s game was a no-lean push. The lean is back on the Over for the finale. But PASS unless you find a better price on the Over 8.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (86-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-72) meet Tuesday as they continue a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 10:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-3

Houston was swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, but the Astros bounced back to take this series opener 5-1.  Astros pitching had clocked a 4.94 ERA over its previous 8 games, but SP Justin Verlander and RP Bryan Abreu combined to allow just 3 hits Monday.

Seattle is just 5-11 since Sept. 8. The Mariners had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback.

The Astros head into Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and 1 1/2 games ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP George Kirby

Javier (9-4, 4.74 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start this season. He owns a 1.28 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 146.1 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 11 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-2, 5.40 ERA in 84 1/3 IP across 16 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 3-1, 2.48 ERA in 29 IP (2020-23)

Kirby (10-10, 3.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 171.2 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-3 win at Oakland Athletics Wednesday
  • 2023 Home stats: 6-4, 3.10 ERA in 81 1/3 IP across 13 starts
  • Career starts vs. Astros: 1-0, 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 IP in 2 starts (2022-23)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Astros 4

Moneyline

The Mariner Moneyline has been a winner in 46 of the club’s last 76 games (+7.20 units, 6% ROI).

Peg the Mariners as slightly underplaying their scoring profile of 4.72  average runs for and 4.11 against. And Seattle has dominated this season series. Kirby on the mound is a plus: he has registered a 3.18 ERA at home the last 2 seasons but is making just his 2nd start at T-Mobile since Aug. 12.

Javier has had some struggles away from Minute Maid. Overall, he’s been the beneficiary of a .275 batting average on balls in play. Of late, he’s yielded loud contact more often.

Seattle has scored 0-2 runs 7 times since Aug. 15. In the games that followed, the Mariners averaged 5.86 runs per game.

TAKE SEATTLE (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

More juice here. AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over was a losing lean Monday. The pitching Tuesday makes for mostly a crisscross past the number and back. PASS.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (85-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-71) meet Monday as they open a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-2

Houston is coming off being swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The Astros head into this week 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth. Astros pitching owns a 4.94 ERA over its last 8 games.

The Mariners were swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Seattle is a paltry 5-10 since Sept. 8, bus has won 4 straight games against Houston and 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Verlander (11-8, 3.39 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 149 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles last Monday
  • 2023 Road stats: 5-3, 3.71 ERA in 63 IP across 11 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 4-1, 2.88 ERA in 34 1/3 IP IP (2022)

Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) is making his 31st start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 181 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 8 K in 7-2 win at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
  • 2023 Home stats: 8-3, 2.52 ERA in 96 1/3 IP across 16 starts
  • Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 2.70 ERA in 20 IP in 3 starts (2019-23)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Mariners -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Astros 4

Moneyline

Figure the prices here as being fair. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Again, the public has this one surrounded. Here on the Run Line, the public is near the true odds and there is a moat full of juice around that. AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series games played in Seattle.

The Seattle offense is swung around to its best platoon splits — especially for power — against right-handers. The Houston offense owns a 4-for-30 mark (.133) with runners in scoring position during its current 3-game losing streak.

The back ends of both bullpens likely have a few bodies either unavailable or not available for much due to activity over the weekend. And both starters have surface numbers a bit too far over their skis. Both are quality pitchers, but Verlander’s line is tamped down by a .272 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a .266 BABIP in inning lead-off situations and a .264 BABIP with runners in scoring position. Castillo also has favorable BABIPs: .258 total, .225 at home and .215 with runners in scoring position.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (+100).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (17-16) and Seattle Mariners (16-17) wrap up a 3-game set Sunday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Astros lost 7-5 as -122 favorites at the Mariners Saturday. Houston held a 3-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th inning before losing for the 3rd time in its last 4 games.

The Mariners closed as +113 underdogs in Saturday’s win. OF Julio Rodríguez drove in what would become the game-winning run with a base hit in the 8th inning as Seattle posted a 7-run inning.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Brandon Bielak vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Bielak (0-0, 4.50 ERA) makes his 1st start and 2nd appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 4 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 7-3 win vs. San Francisco Giants Monday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (15 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 13 K in 7 relief appearances

Miller (0-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.33 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 15.0 K/9 through 6 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 2-1 win at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
  • First career start vs. the Astros

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mariners -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-175) | Mariners -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Mariners 3

Moneyline

BET ASTROS (+115).

Houston is 5-1 in its last 6 road games vs. teams with a losing record and should bounce back after choking away a 3-run lead in the 8th inning Saturday. Seattle has not played up to the level of its competition lately and is 1-5 in its last 6 home games vs. teams with a winning record. The Astros have been good at closing out series and are 41-11 in their last 52 during game 3 of a series.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Houston +1.5 (-175) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Astros moneyline should hit. Bet Houston moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

The Under is 4-0-1 in Houston’s last 5 during game 3 of a series and 4-1-1 in its last 6 after a loss.

These teams tend to play low-scoring games vs. each other in Seattle, with the Under hitting in 6 of the last 8 meetings, and Sunday’s matchup should stay under the total once again as Seattle’s offense comes back down to Earth after plating 7 runs in the 8th inning Saturday.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (17-15) continue a 3-game series with the Seattle Mariners (15-17) Saturday evening at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead series 1-0. Astros won the ALDS vs. the Mariners 3-0 last October, and Houston won the regular-season series 12-7.

The Astros won the first meeting of the regular season 6-4 in Friday’s series opener. The Mariners tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the 8th inning, but Houston’s OF Kyle Tucker swatted a game-winning 2-run homer in the top of the 9th off of RP Matt Brash.

Despite Friday’s win, the Astros have won just 3 times in the previous 7 outings. The Over cashed Friday, too, but the Under is 7-2 across the previous 9 outings.

The loss Friday snapped a 4-game winning streak for the Mariners. The Over and Under has alternated in the previous 6 outings dating back to April 29.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP J.P. France vs. LHP Marcos Gonzales

France (2-1, 2.33 ERA – Triple-A Sugar Land) makes his major league debut. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 19 1/3 innings at Triple-A.

  • Posted a 20-17 record and 3.73 ERA across 5 seasons in the minors
  • Had a career-best .136 opponent batting average (OBA), lowest in the Pacific Coast League among pitchers with at least 13 IP

Gonzales (2-0, 4.74 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9 in 24 2/3 IP innings.

  • Last start: ND, 3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-8 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays last time out April 30
  • Home splits this season: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
  • Went 1-3 with a 3.81 ERA with 6 HR allowed across 26 IP in 4 starts vs. HOU in 2022

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Mariners -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 4

Moneyline

The ASTROS (+100) are worth backing behind their prospect France in this middle contest of a 3-game set.

Houston has won 23 of the past 30 road games against a left-handed starting pitcher, while going 37-15 in the past 52 games inside the AL West.

While the Mariners have won 4 of the past 5 games overall, Seattle has lost 6 of the past 7 games against winning teams, and 5 straight at home against teams with a winning overall record.

Run line/Against the spread

The Astros +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive if you’d like a little bit of insurance.

AVOID, and just play Houston straight up for a much better value.

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Over/Under

The OVER 8 (-115) is the lean, but play it lightly.

The Under has hit in 7 of the past 9 games for the Astros, but the Over is 10-2 in the previous 12 against teams with a losing overall record.

The Over is 5-0 in the past 5 home games against a right-handed starting pitcher, while cashing in 5 of the past 7 games at home, too.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (16-15) and Seattle Mariners (15-16) open a 3-game series at T-Mobile Park on Friday with 1st pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Houston won 12-7 last year and has won 4 straight season series from Seattle

Houston has endured some offensive woes of late and is just 2-4 in its last 6 games. Over that stretch, the Astros have scored just 15 runs on a .528 OPS.

The Mariners, meanwhile, have scored 6 runs per game in winning each of their last 4. Seattle is back home after a 9-game road trip, but the club has struggled offensively in its home yard (.656 OPS).

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Javier (2-1, 3.48 ERA) is making his 7th start. He’s logged a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over his last 3 starts
  • Has held current Seattle batters to an aggregate .649 OPS

Castillo (2-0, 1.82 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 34 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 1.30 ERA across 9 career starts at T-Mobile Park
  • Has held current Houston batters to an aggregate .677 OPS

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Mariners -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-176) | Mariners -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

With runs vs. records, both clubs are a little undercooked right now. Both may be decent plays in the near future, but this series likely won’t offer up attractive value sides. Both, however, profile, as getting lesser-than-expected pitching results and slightly better batting results so far. So, the Under figures to be a baseline setting for these 3 games.

STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

No interest, focus on the Over/Under for the best value in this one. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 series meetings in Seattle. And 6 straight Castillo outings in series openers have hit the Under.

Both bullpens may be a tad overrated by current surface numbers (both have top-5 ERAs), but both are likely 1st-division units at worst. The stronger of the 2 offenses — Houston — has struggled its way to a .659 OPS against right-handed pitching and is struggling in general over recent games.

With the quality of pitching, the game in a pitchers’ park, and Seattle struggling offensively at home, BACK THE UNDER 7 (-120).

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ALDS Game 3: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros took the first 2 games of their AL Division Series against the Seattle Mariners and will look for the sweep Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-5 series: Astros lead 2-0
Regular-season series: Astros won 12-7

Houston was 51-30 on the road this year, which ranked second best in the league. They took the first 2 of this series 8-7 and 4-2.

Seattle had a real chance to steal this series as the M’s were up 7-3 in the 8th inning in Game 1, but Houston roared back for 5 runs to win. Seattle was 46-35 at home this season, and after losing the first 2 games of the series have lost 6 of their last 7 against Houston.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP George Kirby

McCullers (4-2, 2.27 ERA) had a 1.24 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP during the regular season.

  • He made just 3 road starts this season, where he allowed 7 ER in 17 2/3 IP (3.57 ERA) with a 21/9 K/9.
  • He has made 9 career starts at this park and in those outings has registered a 2.66 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP.
  • He’s 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 over 57 1/3 career playoff IP.

Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA) had a 1.21 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 130 IP spanning 26 starts.

  • In 13 home starts this season, he recorded a 3.28 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 71 1/3 IP.
  • He struggled a bit down the stretch, allowing 10 ER in 12 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts with a weak 10/7 K/BB.
  • He faced Houston once this year and allowed 2 ER in 4 IP while whiffing 7 batters.

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+150) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

This is a pretty even matchup between 2 very good pitchers. But it’s worth noting that McCullers excelled down the stretch with 5 ER allowed and a 24/7 K/BB in 19 IP while Kirby struggled over his final few starts. Look for the ASTROS -115 to complete the sweep.

Run line/Against the spread

Of Houston’s last 12 road wins, 10 of them have been by more than a single run. Though Kirby has been strong throughout most of the year, he hasn’t pitched well his last few times out and will be put to the test against one of the league’s top offenses. We’ll side with the ASTROS -1.5 (+150).

Over/Under

We have discussed the recent issues for Kirby, and McCullers hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA would suggest. Both his FIP and xFIP are more than a run higher than his 2.27 ERA.

Both of these offenses are top 10 in wRC+ vs RHP, and while neither is a good bet to explode for a huge day, neither is likely to be completely shut down, either. Back the OVER 6.5 (-125).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (51-44) host the Houston Astros (63-32) at T-Mobile Park Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 8-6.

The Astros have won the first 2 games of the series, each by more than 1 run. However, in their 4 prior series against the Mariners this season, they’ve only swept Seattle once. Houston has won 4 straight games.

The Mariners sit 2nd in the AL West, which was helped by their 14-game win streak prior to this series.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Robbie Ray

Valdez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 115 IP.

  • First start vs. the Mariners this season. The Astros are 11-7 in games he’s started.
  • Has given up just 6 ER in his last 3 starts covering 20 IP. His 2 complete games leads the majors.

Ray (8-6, 3.54 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 117 IP.

  • He led MLB in games started (pitchers), IP, and ERA last season. He has a career 29.1% strikeout rate.
  • In his lone start against Houston this season, the Mariners won  7-4, but Ray did allow 4 ER on 8 hits. Seattle is 12-7 in his starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:28 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -145 | U: +115)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line

PASS.

Houston has won both the last 2 games by more than 1 run, so I’ll slide with the juicier payout on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (+140).

The Astros have quenched the Mariners’ offense this series, allowing just 3 runs. When Valdez is on the mound, he’s been able to continue that trend. Houston has won 8 of his last 12 starts by more than a run.

Also, the Astros have the 3rd-fewest strikeouts and 3rd-most home runs, both of which won’t bode well for Ray, who has already struggled against Houston this season.

Houston is 33-18 SU on the road and Seattle is 20-23 on the run line following a loss. Combine it all, and I’ll take the Astros to win by 2 or more.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 6.5 (-145).

The odds aren’t necessarily there, but this total is too low to pass on. Ray gave up 4 ER the last time he pitched against Houston.

Also, the Mariners rank 17th in slugging percentage and 10th in on-base percentage. They should be able to figure out how to put up more than one run against Valdez, who has given up at least 2 ER in 3 straight starts.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (19-27) host the American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (27-19) Saturday for the middle game of their 3-game series at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Houston leads 4-3, but Seattle has a plus-4 run differential.

The Mariners won Friday’s opener 6-1. They jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead thanks to a pair of 1st-inning, 2-run homers from CF Julio Rodriguez and DH Kyle Lewis – both against Astros SP Justin Verlander.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Logan Gilbert 

Urquidy is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: 5-2 home win vs. the Texas Rangers Sunday with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start, a 7-2 loss at Seattle April 17 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.

Gilbert is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 52 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 8-4 loss at the Boston Red Sox Sunday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Astros: 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA (14 IP, 11 ER), 18 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 14 K across 3 starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 2

Money line

BET MARINERS (+105).

There’s reverse-line movement heading toward Seattle in the betting market and Urquidy’s pitching peripherals are ugly and his effectiveness declines significantly on the road.

Urquidy’s expected-batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage rates are in the 6th percentile or worse, per Statcast. Urquidy has a 6.55 road ERA (1.47 ERA at home) and 1.64 road WHIP (1.15 WHIP at home). The Astros are 1-3 in Urquidy’s 4 career starts vs. the Mariners.

Also, roughly 90% of the money is on the Astros, per Pregame.com, but Houston’s ML climbed from the -125 opener. This is suspicious because common sense tells us that the oddsmakers would move the lines according to the market movement.

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Seattle +1.5 (-165) is a little too pricey. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Seattle’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout. The Mariners are 5-2 RL as home underdogs and the Astros are 8-11 RL as road favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

T-Mobile Park is a traditionally pitcher-friendly venue and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings in Seattle. Also, Houston is 9-28 O/U as a favorite.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-108) because both lineups rank in the top 10 of several advanced-hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and the Astros are 4-0 O/U in Urquidy’s last 4 road starts.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (78-54) and Seattle Mariners (71-62) meet Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET to put a bow on a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. The veteran hurler is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 over 84 2/3 IP in 18 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Current Mariners own an aggregate .777 OPS and .268 isolated power against Odorizzi.
  • The right-hander owns a 7.77 ERA over his last five road turns and a 5.13 road mark for the season.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 over 86 IP across 18 starts.

  • Has been rocked for 19 ER in 12 2/3 IP over his last three starts, two of which were at home. The middle of those three games was a  disaster in Houston where he allowed 9 ER on 8 H through 4 2/3 IP.
  • Has been sunk by a 62.9% left-on-base rate.
  • Posted a 3.51 ERA in the first half of the season.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Astros 4, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston and Seattle have split the first two games of the series. For the year the Astros are 9-6 (plus-24 run differential) against the Mariners.

The Mariners are 39-29 at home but with a -10 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and are under-.500 the rest of the time. Those are indicators of a club too far over its skis.

However, the starting pitcher matchup makes for a change-up here. Gilbert has a 20.9% K-BB percentage, and his stuff and expected-ERA figures belie his surface ERA and his recent slump. Also, the Mariners have hit Odorizzi well.

PASS. Signals are still crossed, but there is some value to be had on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle’s bullpen is in slightly better shape for this third game of the series. Houston is 1-4 over its last five road get-away games.

TAKE THE MARINERS +1.5  (-150).

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at runs scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Add in some contrarian-to-surface-numbers lean on Gilbert, and BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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