The Houston Astros took the first 2 games of their AL Division Series against the Seattle Mariners and will look for the sweep Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Best-of-5 series: Astros lead 2-0
Regular-season series: Astros won 12-7
Houston was 51-30 on the road this year, which ranked second best in the league. They took the first 2 of this series 8-7 and 4-2.
Seattle had a real chance to steal this series as the M’s were up 7-3 in the 8th inning in Game 1, but Houston roared back for 5 runs to win. Seattle was 46-35 at home this season, and after losing the first 2 games of the series have lost 6 of their last 7 against Houston.
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Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP George Kirby
McCullers (4-2, 2.27 ERA) had a 1.24 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP during the regular season.
- He made just 3 road starts this season, where he allowed 7 ER in 17 2/3 IP (3.57 ERA) with a 21/9 K/9.
- He has made 9 career starts at this park and in those outings has registered a 2.66 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP.
- He’s 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 over 57 1/3 career playoff IP.
Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA) had a 1.21 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 130 IP spanning 26 starts.
- In 13 home starts this season, he recorded a 3.28 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 71 1/3 IP.
- He struggled a bit down the stretch, allowing 10 ER in 12 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts with a weak 10/7 K/BB.
- He faced Houston once this year and allowed 2 ER in 4 IP while whiffing 7 batters.
Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+150) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Mariners 3
Moneyline
This is a pretty even matchup between 2 very good pitchers. But it’s worth noting that McCullers excelled down the stretch with 5 ER allowed and a 24/7 K/BB in 19 IP while Kirby struggled over his final few starts. Look for the ASTROS -115 to complete the sweep.
Run line/Against the spread
Of Houston’s last 12 road wins, 10 of them have been by more than a single run. Though Kirby has been strong throughout most of the year, he hasn’t pitched well his last few times out and will be put to the test against one of the league’s top offenses. We’ll side with the ASTROS -1.5 (+150).
Over/Under
We have discussed the recent issues for Kirby, and McCullers hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA would suggest. Both his FIP and xFIP are more than a run higher than his 2.27 ERA.
Both of these offenses are top 10 in wRC+ vs RHP, and while neither is a good bet to explode for a huge day, neither is likely to be completely shut down, either. Back the OVER 6.5 (-125).
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