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The Houston Astros (85-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-71) meet Monday as they open a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 8-2
Houston is coming off being swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The Astros head into this week 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth. Astros pitching owns a 4.94 ERA over its last 8 games.
The Mariners were swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Seattle is a paltry 5-10 since Sept. 8, bus has won 4 straight games against Houston and 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Verlander (11-8, 3.39 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 149 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles last Monday
- 2023 Road stats: 5-3, 3.71 ERA in 63 IP across 11 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 4-1, 2.88 ERA in 34 1/3 IP IP (2022)
Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) is making his 31st start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 181 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 8 K in 7-2 win at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
- 2023 Home stats: 8-3, 2.52 ERA in 96 1/3 IP across 16 starts
- Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 2.70 ERA in 20 IP in 3 starts (2019-23)
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Mariners -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
Figure the prices here as being fair. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Again, the public has this one surrounded. Here on the Run Line, the public is near the true odds and there is a moat full of juice around that. AVOID.
Over/Under
The Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series games played in Seattle.
The Seattle offense is swung around to its best platoon splits — especially for power — against right-handers. The Houston offense owns a 4-for-30 mark (.133) with runners in scoring position during its current 3-game losing streak.
The back ends of both bullpens likely have a few bodies either unavailable or not available for much due to activity over the weekend. And both starters have surface numbers a bit too far over their skis. Both are quality pitchers, but Verlander’s line is tamped down by a .272 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a .266 BABIP in inning lead-off situations and a .264 BABIP with runners in scoring position. Castillo also has favorable BABIPs: .258 total, .225 at home and .215 with runners in scoring position.
BACK THE OVER 7.5 (+100).
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