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The Houston Astros (86-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-72) meet Tuesday as they continue a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 10:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 8-3
Houston was swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, but the Astros bounced back to take this series opener 5-1. Astros pitching had clocked a 4.94 ERA over its previous 8 games, but SP Justin Verlander and RP Bryan Abreu combined to allow just 3 hits Monday.
Seattle is just 5-11 since Sept. 8. The Mariners had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback.
The Astros head into Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and 1 1/2 games ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP George Kirby
Javier (9-4, 4.74 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start this season. He owns a 1.28 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 146.1 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 11 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 4-2, 5.40 ERA in 84 1/3 IP across 16 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 3-1, 2.48 ERA in 29 IP (2020-23)
Kirby (10-10, 3.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 171.2 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-3 win at Oakland Athletics Wednesday
- 2023 Home stats: 6-4, 3.10 ERA in 81 1/3 IP across 13 starts
- Career starts vs. Astros: 1-0, 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 IP in 2 starts (2022-23)
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
The Mariner Moneyline has been a winner in 46 of the club’s last 76 games (+7.20 units, 6% ROI).
Peg the Mariners as slightly underplaying their scoring profile of 4.72 average runs for and 4.11 against. And Seattle has dominated this season series. Kirby on the mound is a plus: he has registered a 3.18 ERA at home the last 2 seasons but is making just his 2nd start at T-Mobile since Aug. 12.
Javier has had some struggles away from Minute Maid. Overall, he’s been the beneficiary of a .275 batting average on balls in play. Of late, he’s yielded loud contact more often.
Seattle has scored 0-2 runs 7 times since Aug. 15. In the games that followed, the Mariners averaged 5.86 runs per game.
TAKE SEATTLE (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
More juice here. AVOID.
Over/Under
The Over was a losing lean Monday. The pitching Tuesday makes for mostly a crisscross past the number and back. PASS.
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