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Drafting these players could get you in deep trouble this season.
Overrated players achieve that dubious distinction because one fantasy football owner is willing to take a risk on a talented player with question marks or baggage of some kind. When a player is questionably tabbed to be a weekly fantasy starter, someone will make a case that they aren’t overrated and only figure it out after it’s too late.
These are five players who will be drafted to play significant roles on fantasy rosters but may struggle to live up to their draft slotting.
Richardson’s immeasurable upside doesn’t come without sizable risk.
When the Indianapolis Colts made quarterback Anthony Richardson the fourth pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, expectations were off the charts that, with Richardson’s skill set, he could almost immediately be Version 2.0 of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson or former NFL star Cam Newton. Blessed with a rare combination of elite foot speed and arm strength, it was clear that Richardson was going to be the starter on Day 1 and the atmosphere was going to change for the Colts.
Indianapolis had witnessed a quarterback turnstile since the abrupt retirement of franchise cornerstone Andrew Luck after the 2018 season. After five years of change, the belief was the ugly ride was coming to a stop with the arrival of Richardson.
Unfortunately, his rookie season lasted just two full games and parts of two others. Richardson was knocked out of his first two divisional tilts – Week 2 against the Houston and Week 4 vs. Tennessee, when he sustained a season-ending shoulder injury that required surgery, putting his dynamic rookie campaign on hold.
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What Richardson showed in 162 minutes was stunningly good. In less than 10 quarters of game time, he threw for 577 yards and three touchdowns and rushed 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns. When he was on the field, the rookie was electric as both a runner and passer. But the obvious concern is his durability.
After a few years of being one of the weaker offensive divisions in football and run-oriented in a passing league, the AFC South has suddenly transformed into a division that has seen significant offensive octane added across the board. The days of the 17-13 bloodbaths are over, and the Colts have joined the party with an offense that can compete with anyone, largely thanks to a dynamic Richardson at the wheel.
The gigantic question with Richardson as a fantasy investment is will he be able to stay healthy in the NFL and not be a flash in the pan with immense talent?
There may be no bigger risk/reward pick in fantasy drafts this summer than Richardson. He currently as an ADP of QB5, behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jackson and Patrick Mahomes — in the mix with guys like C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott.
Those other guys all have a track record of success to warrant being drafted that high. Richardson has finished only two career games, meaning he’s effectively still a rookie. Anyone who saw his performances in 2023’s cameo season can attest that Richardson is an explosive — perhaps generational — talent, but to take a quarterback this high with a blazing red flag from his rookie season is a bold move as high as his current ADP would indicate.
Whoever ends up with Richardson will likely be forced to jump on another quarterback higher than others who took a quarterback early to provided insurance. In a 12-team league, that will likely require grabbing a second QB as soon as everyone has one, which may be too steep a price for a lot of fantasy managers to pay, despite his incredibly high ceiling.
Few aspects of Indy’s offense will breed fantasy familiarity in 2023.
While he didn’t exactly dazzle in his professional debut — completing just seven of 12 passes for 67 yards with an interception — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who was named the starter last week, still took a seat on the bench during the second preseason contest against the Chicago Bears.
The fourth overall pick has athleticism that makes Richardson an intriguing QB2, but what does starting the rookie from Week 1 on mean for the rest of the Colts offense? Perhaps more importantly, a recent development in the running backs room may have more pronounced impact on this offense.
Here’s a three-pack of fantasy quarterbacks who could overdeliver in 2023.
There is no universal ranking system for fantasy football players, so ADP (Average Draft Position) from early drafts serve as setting the bar for the pecking order of position players. In some leagues, rosters have only one quarterback, which leaves almost two-thirds of the league’s QBs available for pickup. In most formats, only one quarterback is started, but backups are rostered as insurance and to cover injuries or bye weeks.
When looking at quarterbacks consistently outside the QB1 designation (top 12), these are the three who should draw serious consideration to be drafted as a high QB2 with the potential to post numbers better than some of the QB1 players taken in front of them.
A fantasy football breakdown of Colts QBs Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew.
The Indianapolis Colts are looking to usher in a new era under center after spending the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft on Anthony Richardson out of Florida.
While the future of the position currently belongs to Richardson, the organization hedged their bets by signing veteran Gardner Minshew in free agency as a bridge option in Shane Steichen’s scheme.
For fantasy football purposes, we’re here to examine the outlook of the new quarterback room in Indianapolis and which signal-caller managers should target in their upcoming drafts for the 2023 season.
Which rookies have the most long-term fantasy football value?
Looking for fantasy football rookie rankings for your dynasty or partial-keeper league? We have you covered.
Of course, injuries and radical personnel changes cannot be forecasted with much certainty. Variations in league settings and scoring formats notwithstanding, here are snapshot rankings depicting how the top rookies stack up for the long haul.
Live blogging the impact of each fantasy-relevant pick from Round 1.
The 2023 NFL Draft is finally upon us, and prospects are now rookies with NFL cities to call home. Follow along for real-time analysis of the opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2023.
Fantasy draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of the collegiate bowl season. It’s time to let the real fun begin!
Raw passing traits, plus-intangibles, and sheer athleticism will position Richardson for success.
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson declared for the 2023 NFL Draft after a lone season as the starter for the Florida Gators, likely securing a high placement in the opening round along the way.
There’s serious polarization within the draftnik community, marking Richardson as a true boom-or-bust selection. He has all of the physical tools one could ask for from a franchise quarterback, and Richardson’s intangibles are coveted, too. The detractors tend to point to poor accuracy numbers, mechanical flaws, and a lack of experience.
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 244 pounds
40 time: 4.43 seconds
Few players at any position possess the impressive combination of size and speed. Richardson’s natural comparison by most evaluators is Cam Newton, and while that’s absolutely fair, Josh Allen also comes to mind. Both came out of college with serious accuracy question marks, their mobility is a strength, size comparisons are close, and a sky-high ceiling. … Not bad company to keep if Richardson lives up to either comparison.
Like Allen and Newton, Richardson figures to be a first-round selection. There are too many positives in a rare physical package to be overlooked by all 32 teams, even if it means a franchise will have to trade back into the round to nab him.
Table: Anthony Richardson stats (2020-22)
*includes postseason/bowl games (stats from Sports Reference)
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For Year 1, the outlook is about as gloomy as it gets if you’re looking for an immediate starter. Thankfully, it’s pretty rare a quarterback is coveted as a fantasy QB1 in his first year. Richardson is an awesome gamble in dynasty formats but not without risk. Indianapolis, Washington and Houston present an opportunity to compete for a Week 1 starting gig.
Seattle makes a great deal of sense for his landing spot. Pete Carroll can roll with Geno Smith for another year or two and then transition to Richardson. The Atlanta Falcons also present an interesting situation even after drafting Desmond Ridder in the third round last season. He enters the year as the presumed starter but is far from a lock to close the year in that role. Baltimore is worth watching if Lamar Jackson is indeed sent packing.
Other possible destinations with a stop-gap option in place include the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, and Los Angeles Rams all could be in play.
In the right spot, surrounded by a strong coaching staff, Richardson has MVP-caliber upside but also comes with bench-warming downside of near equal proportion.
