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The Indianapolis Colts chose QB Anthony Richardson with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, while the team signed a little insurance with veteran QB Gardner Minshew II.
Richardson had an impressive training camp and he wrapped up the preseason with a full half of action on Aug. 24 against the Philadelphia Eagles, completing 6-of-17 passes for 78 yards while also running for a game-high 38 yards. Initially, there was some suggestion by Indy brass that Minshew could potentially start early in the season, as Richardson was brought along slowly. However, that no longer appears to be the case.
Looking at the fantasy appeal of Richardson, I am not a huge fan of hitching my wagon to a rookie, especially at the quarterback spot. There are certainly exceptions to the rule, but first-year signal callers in the NFL come with a lot of growing pains.
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Anthony Richardson’s ADP: 75.39
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
In redraft fantasy leagues with 12 teams, Richardson has been going off the board in Round 7 as a low-end QB1. The rookie seems to be getting a lot of love despite having yet to play a meaningful down in the NFL, ahead of several other veteran players who are tried and true fantasy options. It’s a little surprising, actually.
Richardson doesn’t exactly have a bevy of top-notch downfield threats, although WR Michael Pittman Jr. is certainly a player he’ll look to continue developing a nice rapport. TE Jelani Woods is another big body and safety valve in the short to intermediate routes, as well as a big-time red zone threat.
It remains to be seen what kind of run game the rookie will have at his disposal. RB Jonathan Taylor still has a horseshoe on the side of his helmet but has been granted permission to pursue a trade, so the run game is a bit uncertain at the moment. Journeyman RB Kenyan Drake could emerge as a useful option catching balls out of the backfield, even if Taylor ends up sticking around.
Among quarterbacks, Richardson’s ADP in redraft leagues is 11th, just behind the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson (70.71) and Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (74.12). Richardson’s ADP puts him just ahead of Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins (78.85), Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (80.01) and Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith (85.21).
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Anthony Richardson’s 2022 stats (Florida)
Games: 12
Passing yards: 2,549
Completions | attempts: 176 | 327
Passing touchdowns: 17
Interceptions: 9
Carries | rushing yards: 103 | 654
Rushing touchdowns: 9
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Where should you draft Richardson?
I am extremely bearish on the stock of the Florida Gators product. He is a dual-threat option who could potentially grow into a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. However, if you watched him at Gainesville, I am getting more of a QB Trey Lance vibe than a QB Jalen Hurts vibe from Richardson. I could end up being dead wrong.
Where Richardson is taken on draft day by fantasy managers depends upon the format. If you’re in a redraft league, I wouldn’t be one of the people taking him as a low-end QB1. I’d much prefer New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, who has done it for many seasons, or even Cousins or Tua, all of whom are being drafted after the Colts rookie.
In redraft formats, I’d probably want to wait until Round 8 or 9 to snag the rookie. In rookie-only drafts, Richardson has an ADP of just 5.52, making him the 1st QB taken off the board, a selection based largely on his potential upside.
In keeper leagues, taking Richardson late in Round 6 isn’t out of line, but again, make sure to have plenty of depth on hand.
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