This unexpected edge could be difference-maker for Cowboys vs. Bucs

For all the hand wringing, multiple advanced stats say the Cowboys run defense is really quite good, but that’s not even the key to this game. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys started their 2022 season with a 19-3 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losing quarterback Dak Prescott, safety Jayron Kearse and left guard Connor McGovern in the process. All three would return and help the Cowboys finish with a 12-5 record, their first 12-win seasons in consecutive years since the 93-94 seasons.

As for the Bucs. they were unable to rekindle their success in the ground game and would suffer multiple injuries to their offensive line on their way to an 8-9 record.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.