Tag: 2024 fantasy football

Fantasy football: Carolina Panthers WR breakdown

A revamped receiving corps brings plenty of promise … or does it?

By any metric, the Carolina Panthers were a disaster in 2023. They traded up to select quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick, and then watched as No. 2 selection C.J. Stroud lit up the NFL with the Houston Texans. They hired Frank Reich as head coach with the idea that he’d help mentor their would-be franchise quarterback … and fired him after 11 games.

They hit the reset button once again during the offseason. The highlights: hiring Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales as head coach, committing north of $150 million in free agency to overhaul the interior of the offensive line, and adding talent on the outside by drafting wide receiver Xavier Legette, and trading for Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Those new wideouts will team with top returning receiver Adam Thielen to give Young a much more talented group than what he dealt with as a rookie. While these moves portend marked improvement, nothing is certain, so let’s look at what we can expect from Carolina’s receivers in 2024.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency.  The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.

Also see: Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end

Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 20%

Running backs have been on the decline for many years while backfields become more fragmented and workloads spread over more “specialists.” That’s accelerated greatly for the last two seasons, and it is not just injuries shaking up depth charts.

Consider that in the last two years, 18 running backs made the Top-10. Only Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry logged back-to-back Top-10 seasons. And both have changed teams for 2024. The volatility of the top players is dramatic and unlike any other position. Six of the 2023 Top-10 were no better than No. 33 in 2022. Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs were in the Top-2 for 2022 and yet fell to No. 24 and No. 27 respectively. That’s a high draft pick last year that did no better than a fantasy RB3 for your team.

The disturbing part of this is not so much the tremendous turnover at the top, but that the new batch of elite fantasy scorers are almost all coming from deep in the rankings for the one year. The position has become the host for the annual Cinderella’s to show up and then stumble the next year.

The 2023 Top-10 running backs are very well represented in fantasy drafts with seven of them again drafted in this year’s Top-10 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry). The only Top-10 backs who fell out of the Top-10 in drafts so far have been Rachaad White (No. 14), Joe Mixon (No. 17), and Raheem Mostert (No. 32).

Hard to argue against waiting on running backs. Very hard.

Let’s make this even worse. Consider how well the Top-10 of 2021 fared just two years later.

Joe Mixon was the only running back to be Top-10 in 2021, and then again two years later. Half of the 2021 backs failed to place better than No. 33 just two seasons later.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

see: Quarterback | Running back | Tight end

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 50%

Wide receivers have long been one of the most consistent players to repeat an elite year. Consider that Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are currently on four-year streaks and would have been joined by Justin Jefferson had he not been injured last season.

Whereas running backs are in constant flux, there is a lot of reliability with wideouts. Always bet on the talent with wide receivers, much more than their situation.

A look at two years back is just as revealing. Consider the Top-10 from 2021 compared to last year:

Hunter Renfrow (No. 10) was the only Cinderella in the bunch.The other three that fell were all injured. You could draft wideouts with a two-year old cheatsheet and still likely end up with a solid group for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Tight Ends

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 tight ends change from year to year.

Elite tight ends are notoriously thin in the fantasy world, so it is no big surprise to see a high amount of volatile players from year to year. It is a position that really only offers about three or four players with any real difference-making statistics.

Also see: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver 

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 60%

The reality with tight ends is that the Top-5 tend to dominate the fantasy scoring for the position, and the rest make minimal difference, if any. But the position is improving each year in terms of increasing their roles on their respective teams.

Had Mark Andrews remained healthy, he would have pushed the tight ends up even higher. The exciting development is that four of the Top-10 came from a sub-No. 40 finish in 2022. Sam LaPorta was an exception for the ages as a break out rookie, but Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson both showed up in the Top-10 in just their second season, after a little-used rookie year.

The general rule with tight ends is that if they’ve had back-to-back Top-10 seasons, that they offer reliable value. The position is expanding in use by NFL teams and are starting to remake how receivers contribute.

Fantasy football preview: Chicago Bears running backs

Will there be a three-way attack from the Chicago backfield?

With the selection of quarterback Caleb Williams, combined with the additions of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, excitement surrounding the Chicago Bears offense might be at its high point in franchise history. While that level of optimism is understandable, let’s not get too carried away with the idea that the Bears, which featured the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL last year, are simply going to put everything on Williams’ shoulders from Week 1 on.

Granted, former QB Justin Fields, who was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, was a big part of the team’s success on the ground, but it’s a commonly held belief around the league that defense and a strong running game are a young quarterback’s best friends. Plus, while Williams won’t match Fields in terms of raw athleticism, he did run for 11 touchdowns at USC last year, so he’s not devoid of running ability.

Chicago returns two of its top three backs from 2023 with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson while bidding adieu to D’Onta Foreman, who signed with the Cleveland Browns. The Bears hope they have found a new lead back in the form of D’Andre Swift, handing him a three-year, $24 million deal at the start of free agency. How does this trio look for fantasy owners? Let’s find out.

Will 2024 mark the start of a Deshaun Watson redemption arc?

What are the odds of a Watson rebound in 2024?

In March of 2022, the Cleveland Browns sent first-round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as a third-rounder in 2023, plus fourth-rounders in ’22 and 2024, to the Houston Texans in exchange for quarterback Deshaun Watson and a ’24 sixth-round pick. After two seasons, this checks in as one of the worst trades in NFL history from Cleveland’s perspective. Will things finally get better in 2024? Let’s take an early peek.

During his two years in a Browns uniform, Watson has appeared in 12 games. He served an 11-game suspension in 2022, and he missed 11 games last year due to a shoulder injury that required surgery to correct. He has been a limited participant in offseason workouts, but the expectation is he will be ready to go in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Cleveland has made some notable changes since the last time Watson took the field. Perhaps the biggest one is the hiring of new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who worked with Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen during his tenure as the OC. Dorsey was named the quarterbacks coach when Allen was in his second season, and he helped shepherd his ascent to stardom before eventually taking over as the play caller in 2022.

On the field, the Browns acquired wide receiver Jerry Jeudy from the Denver Broncos, ironically parting ways with the sixth-round selection they picked up from Houston in the Watson deal (along with a fifth-round choice). That gives Cleveland a top three of Jeudy (54-758-2 last year), Amari Cooper (72-1,250-5), and Elijah Moore (59-640-2) at receiver to go along with tight end David Njoku (81-882-6), who finally took a major step statistically last year.

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Health and contract issues could play a part in how effective Cleveland is offensively in 2024. In addition to Watson, who still isn’t throwing every day as he works his way back from shoulder surgery, running back Nick Chubb (knee) faces an uncertain future after suffering a gruesome knee injury last year. On the money side, Cooper didn’t take part in the offseason program as he enters the final year of his contract.

All those changes should lead to a more aggressive, pass-oriented offense under Dorsey, which could breathe some life into Watson, who last posted a meaningful statistical season back in 2020 — he threw for 4,823 yards, 33 TDs, and seven INTs while rushing for 444 yards and three TDs.

Fantasy football outlook

The numbers that Watson put up in 2020 bordered on elite, and it shows what he is capable of … or at least what he was capable of. Three full seasons have passed since then, during which he’s played in a dozen games with 2,217 yards passing, 14 TDs, and nine INTs.

At this stage, the veteran needs to be viewed as a borderline top-20 quarterback on draft day, though his dual-threat potential makes him one of the more intriguing backup options.

Breaking down the New England Patriots backfield

Does this backfield offer any value behind Rhamondre Stevenson?

Put bluntly, the New England Patriots were a disaster offensively in 2023. With arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, the team struggled to sustain drives, finished 30th in total yards, and tied for last in points. The result was a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and quarterback room, with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien replaced by Alex Van Pelt (most recently of the Cleveland Browns), and Mac Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) swapped out for Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye.

A return to competence would go a long way in breathing life back into the rushing attack after the Pats finished 26th on the ground (95.7 yards per game). Rhamondre Stevenson is back to once again lead the backfield, but Ezekiel Elliott returned to the Dallas Cowboys after one season in Foxborough. His spot on the depth chart now belongs to RB Antonio Gibson, who was signed to a three-year contract after spending his first four seasons with the Washington Commanders.

With the Pats set to open starting Brissett, a known game manager, as QB1, and then eventually move Maye, the third overall pick, into the role, the ground game figures to be featured. So, what does that mean for fantasy owners?

Fantasy football outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers

A reworked receiving corps has the Jaguars with questions abound.

The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ receiver room is undergoing significant change. Calvin Ridley had a strong fantasy season as the big dog in the yard (76-1,016-8) but left in free agency. In response, the Jags signed Gabe Davis in free agency and used a first-round draft pick on Brian Thomas Jr., who both bring deep speed to the roster.

Incumbent Christian Kirk is returning from injury and return specialist Devin Duvernay likely holds down a roster spot due to his availability on two of three units.

The Jaguars paid Trevor Lawrence franchise player money without franchise production to date. It’s time for Lawrence to make the jump to stardom, and it will take these guys to get him there.

Fantasy football: 3 rookie breakout candidates for 2024

Taking a look at three rookies with the best chance of breaking out for fantasy football in 2024.

Though summer break is upon us, fantasy football managers know the quest for a championship never rests. 

Getting value and hitting on some draft picks that break out relative to average draft position (ADP) is what it’s all about. Those selections truly make a difference, and focusing on rookies can be an easy way to get there.

We won’t be looking at the bigger names in this rookie class like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Jonathon Brooks. But there are still plenty of rookies who have the chance to become staples in fantasy lineups.

Here’s a look at three rookie breakout candidates to keep an eye on going into the 2024 season:

Fantasy football outlook: Arizona Cardinals WR preview

A prized rookie headlines an unheralded receiving corps in the desert.

The Arizona Cardinals‘ wide receivers room has been a turnstile in recent years. Last year’s top two wide receivers both left – Marquise Brown (free agency) and Rondale Moore (trade). Entering 2024, the Cardinals have a new No. 1 wide receiver in fourth overall draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who is already being anointed as the ”next big thing” in Arizona.

Harrison joins a pair of in-house returnees – Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. Arizona added a pair of veterans in free agency with low-investment signings of Zay Jones and Zach Pascal. There are some questions how the depth charter will play out for WR2 through WR5, but there’s no question that Harrison is the go-to guy.