2022 fantasy football tips – Page 14

Will Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks offer fantasy football value?

Could fantasy owners be overlooking value among Seattle quarterbacks?

For the past decade, the Seattle Seahawks have been led by the combination of head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson. That changed this offseason when the Seahawks flipped Wilson to the Denver Broncos in exchange for QB Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris, and five draft picks, including two first-rounders.

That move announced Seattle’s decision to start rebuilding their roster after winning just one playoff game over the last five years. There were rumors that more moves could be in the offing, most notably trading away one (or both) of wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, though as of now the tandem remains on roster and appears likely to remain there, at least to start the 2022 season.

Regardless of who lines up on the outside, it’d be surprising to see the Seahawks not lean into their long-preferred formula of featuring a ground game that includes running backs Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Walker III, and possibly Chris Carson (neck), though a neck injury clouds his future.

With Wilson gone, Lock and veteran Geno Smith are set to compete for the starting job in the Emerald City. The team has had a lot of positive things to say about Lock, and their decision not to target a quarterback in the draft, even as several of the better prospects tumbled into the middle rounds, suggests there’s more than just bluster there. Smith went 1-2 as a starter when Wilson was hurt last season, but his two losses were by a combined six points, so the team knows it can be competitive with him.

Drew Lock

A second-round pick of Denver in 2019, Lock went 8-13 in 21 starts, most of which came in 2020. He had his moments, passing for four TDs against the Carolina Panthers, and throwing a touchdown pass on the final play to upend the Los Angeles Chargers, but those were overshadowed by the type of poor decision-making that saw him tie for the NFL lead in interceptions (15) in 2020 despite finishing 20th in attempts. It was painfully obvious that the Broncos coaching staff had lost faith in Lock by last season, electing to play a visibly injured Teddy Bridgewater ahead of him.

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While the results have been lacking, Lock isn’t without some talent. He has good size, a strong arm, and underrated athleticism that could allow him to supplement the ground game if Seattle decides it wants to incorporate read options or designed runs.

There’s considerable talent at the skill positions as well, though it’s not like he’s coming over from a talent-strapped squad in Denver that included WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Entering Year 4, Lock needs to prove he can be a starter in the NFL, and perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs.

Geno Smith

Per Carroll, Smith has a leg up for the No. 1 job by virtue of having spent the last year in the team’s system, and the veteran has reportedly been splitting first-team reps with Lock in Smith’s second season with Seattle. That’s all well and good for June, but you must believe the team wants Lock to win the job considering how limited we know Smith to be after bouncing around the NFL since 2013.

While Smith has 34 career starts, 30 of them came in his first two seasons, meaning he’s made just four in seven years since. He’s a game manager, but he won’t lose many games for you, and that carries some value in the NFL.

Fantasy football outlook

There’s only intrigue here if Lock wins the job. If Smith is the starter, you can bank on a steady diet of handoffs and short throws where ball security is the top priority.

If it’s Lock, he at least carries a mix of athleticism and arm strength that could potentially generate some fantasy value — his ceiling might be as a Wish.com version of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.

Unless you’re bullish on Lock, however, it’s safe to leave him as a watch-list candidate. In best-ball formats, Lock is worth a QB3 selection behind two safe options or No. 4 spot otherwise.

Fantasy football: Philadelphia Eagles running back breakdown

Will any of Philly’s running backs fly high in 2022?

One would be hard-pressed to come up with a team that went through more of a philosophical about-face in 2021 than the Philadelphia Eagles. Through the first seven games, Philly’s game plan seemed to be to put as much on Jalen Hurts’ right arm as possible. To that end, Hurts averaged 35 passing attempts per game over the first seven as the Eagles opened the year 2-5.

After that, the focus shifted 180 degrees to the ground game as Hurts averaged just 24 passes per outing across his final eight with Philadelphia posting a 6-2 mark — Gardner Minshew made two starts down the stretch as well, including a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. When the dust settled, the Eagles had rushed for an NFL-leading 2,715 yards despite not having anyone reach 800 yards on the ground (Hurts led the club with 784 yards and 10 TDs).

Three of the top four backs from last year return; Jordan Howard (86-406-1 in seven games) remains a free agent and appears unlikely to be re-signed, though obviously preseason injuries could change that math in a hurry.

Miles Sanders

In terms of talent, Sanders is the standard-bearer. He has good speed and is a quality receiver out of the backfield, making him one of the focal points of the offense … when healthy. Durability has been a real issue in his young career, however, missing nine games combined over the past two years. In 2020 he suffered a pair of knee sprains, and last season he dealt with a sprained ankle for months and then broke his hand.

Sanders’ struggles to remain on the field are doubtless a big part of the reason that Philly’s most talented back has rarely been used like a featured player. In 24 games over the last two seasons, Sanders has reached the 20-touch plateau just four times. He’s a little like Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones in that way, though Jones consistently reaches the high teens while Sanders had six games with fewer than a dozen opportunities last year. It’s hard to consistently produce when you’re not getting the ball.

Kenneth Gainwell

As a rookie last season, Gainwell logged 101 combined touches for 544 yards and six touchdowns, though his role really dried up over the season’s final two-plus months — only twice during that stretch did he log more than five touches in a game, and one of those was that glorified exhibition in Week 18.

The thinking here is that a full year in the system, combined with his strong receiving skills, should allow him to function as the top passing-down back. Whether he has the size (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) to see an expanded role in case of injury is Sanders is debatable.

Boston Scott

Scott is a stocky back (5-foot-6, 203 pounds) who has shown the ability to find the end zone in his career (13 career TDs on 228 carries) due to his athleticism and deceptive power. He’s a solid receiver as well, though perhaps not on the same level as Sanders or Gainwell.

Scott saw double-digit carries in six of his final seven games last year and projects as the more likely backup in case Sanders gets hurt. He should battle it out with Gainwell for the No. 2 job during training camp.

Fantasy football takeaway

When factoring in an intended increase in passing volume following the addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown, along with potential to lose ground scores to Hurts, this backfield may be more detrimental than beneficial to fantasy lineups many weeks.

Having three backs with similar skill sets makes them interchangeable, which in turn makes it tough to determine the roles they’ll fill — there is currently no one of Howard’s bruising disposition on the depth chart, but someone is like to pick up his nearly 90 touches.

Sanders has RB2 upside, but his low usage and injury history make him better suited as an RB3. Gainwell seems to have a higher weekly ceiling than Scott, but neither player is worth more than late-round consideration as roster depth.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Joe Burrow: Which QB should you be drafting?

Is the reigning, back-to-back MVP ready to take a back seat to the third-year pro?

Comparing Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow prior to the 2021 season would have seemed like a lopsided exercise in futility. But, Burrow led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl to make the conversation much more realistic, despite Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers posting a league-best 39 wins over the past three seasons.

So, who has the better 2022 fantasy prospects? Let’s look at their pros and cons.

Aaron Rodgers

Pros

Not just a four-time MVP winner, but he has won the last two (2020, 2021)
He has thrown 85 touchdown passes the last two seasons – the most in any two-year stretch of his career.
Rodgers is incredible at protecting the ball and not throwing ill-advised passes. Over the last four seasons, he has thrown 2,223 passes and just 15 interceptions – an average of one pick per every 148 passes.
While not much of a rusher in fantasy terms, he has scored six rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons – the most in any two-year span in the last decade.

Cons

The trade of Davante Adams takes away his unquestioned top target. Over the last four seasons (57 contests), Adams was targeted 614 times – almost 11 times a game.
Not only did Rodgers lose Adams as his primary weapon, the Packers also allowed Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to walk in free agency – two players who had a long history learning with Rodgers.
Entering his age-39 season in a young man’s game
He hasn’t been the developer of young wide receivers at nearly the same rate as his predecessor Brett Favre. Rodgers is notorious for not trusting rookies.

Credit: Sam Greene/Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK

Joe Burrow

Pros

Has made incredible progress in just two NFL seasons, making his first Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. His success demonstrates the potential for another significant jump in his maturation process. Still learning the game, as he increases his quarterback IQ, the game will slow down for him.
He has three of the most dynamic young receivers in the league with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
The Bengals have a balanced offensive attack and can run Joe Mixon 20 times per game to take the pressure off Burrow to be the focus of the offense at all times.
Cincinnati upgraded its offensive line with the additions of center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins.
Displayed good consistency last season, completing more than 70 percent of his passes has averaged 39 pass attempts a game in his career. With that many attempts consistently, good things will happen.

Cons

Whether it was the fault of his offensive line or holding the ball too long, Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 NFL career starts.
He has already suffered one significant injury, and until the on-paper upgrades along the line show it on the field, Burrow will continue to be a quarterback fantasy owners have to fear will miss time due to injury.
He threw 14 interceptions last season, just one fewer than Rodgers has thrown in the last four years combined.
Although he didn’t show too many ill-effects from the significant leg injury he suffered in 2020, his rushing attempts bottomed out. As a rookie, he averaged 3.7 rushing attempts a game. In 2021, he dropped to 2.5 attempts. His rushing yards also took a hit, dipping from 14.2 yards a game to 7.4 yards a game.

Fantasy football outlook

Rodgers (ADP 6:06) is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he has the weakest supporting cast of receivers at any point during his career. Without his security blanket in Adams, he has to count on lesser receivers to get the job done.

Burrow (ADP 5:10), on the other hand, has young dynamic weapons who are only getting better with time. Because of that, if he stays healthy, Joe Burrow is the better fantasy quarterback option in 2022.

Can fantasy footballers find value in the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield?

Breaking down the scenarios of Atlanta’s running back stable.

When the Atlanta Falcons decided to pull the trigger on trading longtime franchise quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason, they ushered in a full reboot that was probably at least two years overdue.

During his 14 years in Atlanta, Ryan averaged 572 passes per season and threw 560 times last year in this system. Don’t expect newcomers Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder to approach last year’s number in 2022 — during his three seasons as the starter with the Tennessee Titans, Mariota averaged 412.

With far less experience at quarterback, the expectation is that the Falcons will lean more heavily on the run, though a glance at their depth chart doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in that approach. While they could always add a free agent at some point, this is what the Falcons are working with for now.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Inked to a one-year, $3 million contract in free agency before the 2021 season, Patterson ended up on the short list for best bargain signing in all of football. The one-time first-round pick of the Minnesota Vikings never lived up his draft station as a receiver and had settled into more of a part-time gadget role while bouncing around the league. To the immense credit of offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, the Falcons decided to feature Patterson out of the backfield, where he responded with 1,166 total yards and 11 TDs, emerging as their top offensive playmaker.

There are still some questions regarding Patterson, however, who at age 31 is already past the “sell by” date of most backs. While he clearly hasn’t taken anywhere near the long-term wear and tear of full-time RBs, he still has 143 career games under his belt.

Adjustments will have to be made with Ryan gone as the veteran quarterback commanded a level of respect from secondaries that neither Mariota nor Ridder will. It’s also worth noting that even though Patterson sits atop the depth chart, he’s no workhorse, and his fantasy value will be tied to his ability to continue to maximize his touches.

Damien Williams

Williams will be playing for his fourth team in five years, which is a pretty accurate barometer of his talent level. The 30-year-old has topped 50 carries in a season just once (111-498-5 with KC in 2020) but carries a respectable 4.2 yards-per-attempt average across his career.

Williams also is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and he should at least contribute on passing downs. He’s likely to stick as veteran depth, though the team would be thrilled if he operated in the same kind of tertiary role he’s filled throughout most of his time in the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier

A fifth-round pick without a lot of fanfare, Allgeier is quietly stepping into a potentially productive situation with the Falcons. At 5-foot-11, 224 pounds, the BYU product has good size and was heavily utilized over the last two years with the Cougars, where he rushed for 2,731 yards and 36 TDs.

He lacks big-play speed to be sure and projects more as someone that grinds down the opposition with body punches than dazzling them with haymakers. The rookie has decent hands, but in all likelihood, his primary role profiles as a two-down back and being an occasional threat around the goal line.

Fantasy football outlook

While there are no sure things in Atlanta’s backfield, Patterson is the one to own. Sure, there are some legitimate questions given his “breakout” season came in Year 9, but on a team short on playmakers, Patterson figures to be a focal point offensively. That gives him solid RB3 appeal.

Unless injuries press him into a larger-than-expected role, Williams can remain on waivers. Although he may sit third on the depth chart now, Allgeier is the better flier option. There’s an outside chance for a scenario that puts Allgeier in the early-down role, with Patterson serving more as a the change-up and/or third-down back. Allgeier is a workhorse in a way that neither Williams nor Patterson are capable of being, and that alone gives him late-round potential.

Regardless of which guy ends up seeing the bulk of the touches in the red zone, both quarterback options are fond of rushing the rock, and that devalues the overall fantasy upside from this backfield.