Fantasy Football: Targets, Touches & TDs: Week 6

Tackling five backfields that create confusion in fantasy football and trying to make sense of them.

Despite the ongoing extreme makeovers with the NFL itinerary, we remain right on schedule here with your weekly serving of TT&T.

Running backs remain the most valuable point-for-point fantasy football commodities, and with that in mind this week, we’re tackling five of the league’s most baffling backfields – ones where a clear, startable fantasy back has yet to emerge.

From each of these five backfields, we’ll take a look at the key stats and metrics produced so far and use those as guideposts to try and forecast whatever fantasy value may emerge from each going forward.

Here goes, starting alphabetically with the …

Baltimore Ravens

Primary backs and stats

  • Mark Ingram: (5 games played) 45 rushes-205 yards-2 TDs; 5 targets-3 receptions-25 yards-0 TDs. 35.0 standard-scoring fantasy points/38.0 point-per-reception points
  • J.K. Dobbins: (5) 16-126-2; 10-9-73-0. 31.9/40.9
  • Gus Edwards: (5) 34-192-0; 3-0-0-0. 19.2/19.2

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Ingram: 48-230-2 (0.73 standard scoring/0.79 PPR)
  • Dobbins: 25-199-2 (1.28/1.64)
  • Edwards: 34-192-0 (0.56/0.56)

Offensive snap shares

  • Dobbins: 106/300 (35.3 percent)
  • Ingram: 99/300 (33.0)
  • Edwards: 95/300 (31.7)

Red-zone stats

  • Ingram: 7-16-1 rushing; 2-1-4-0 receiving
  • Dobbins: 2-5-2; 0-0-0-0
  • Edwards: 1-2-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

Major asterisk here, of course, with quarterback Lamar Jackson ranking second on the team in rushing attempts (41) and pacing the squad with 238 rushing yards – and that’s even with Jackson’s average number of attempts down 3.5 carries per contest (11.7-8.2) from last season.

The drafting of Dobbins has played a major role in knocking Ingram’s per-game touch average down to 9.6 from 15.2 a year ago, and that – and an expected touchdown regression – has caused Ingram to fall from the RB1 ranks down to sub-flex territory as he currently ranks 34th at the position in total fantasy points (standard scoring) and 42nd in average fantasy points per contest.

Ingram has been the Ravens’ back to own simply due to the fact that he’s getting the most the carries on the league’s second-best rushing team (160.8 yards per game). But Dobbins is superior in yards-per-touch (8.0-4.8) and fantasy-points-per-touch averages. Additionally, his higher usage in the passing game portends bigger and better fantasy things as the season presses on. He’s a must-add if he was somehow dropped in your league.

Edwards still will be involved as well – primarily as a late-game closer – but Ingram and Dobbins are the Ravens’ backs to own in standard-size leagues.

Detroit Lions

Primary backs and stats

  • Adrian Peterson: (4 games played) 54 rushes-245 yards-1 TD; 6 targets-4 receptions-31 yards-0 TDs; 33.6 standard-scoring fantasy points/37.6 PPR points
  • D’Andre Swift: (4) 12-42-1; 16-13-124-1; 28.6/41.6
  • Kerryon Johnson: (4) 21-71-1; 3-2-17-0; 14.8/16.8

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Peterson: 58-276-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.65 PPR)
  • Swift: 25-166-2 (1.14/1.66)
  • Johnson: 23-88-1 (0.64/0.73)

Offensive snap shares

  • Peterson: 105/264 (39.8 percent)
  • Swift: 83/264 (31.4)
  • Johnson: 70/264 (26.5)

Red-zone stats

  • Peterson: 12-35-1 rushing; 0-0-0-0 receiving
  • Swift: 2-2-1; 3-2-16-1
  • Johnson: 5-19-1; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Sept. 7 signing of the 35-year-old Peterson changed the whole dynamic of the situation here as he has 10 more touches than the rookie Swift and the incumbent Johnson combined.

Given his superior rushing attempt and snap shares and red-zone work, an iron man known as Peterson has been Detroit’s most trustworthy fantasy back to date, but Swift’s sizable edge in the passing game isn’t to be ignored. The second-round pick quietly ranks 20th among all league running backs with 13 receptions and figures to become more and more involved as his adjustment to the pro game eases and his early-season health issues further fade away.

Johnson, thought be to be a rising fantasy star only a season ago, has become the odd man out.

Los Angeles Rams

Primary backs and stats

  • Darrell Henderson: (5 games played) 58 rushes-260 yards-3 TDs; 11 targets-7 receptions-92 yards-1 TD. 59.2 standard-scoring fantasy points/66.2 point-per-reception points
  • Malcolm Brown: (5) 53-213-2; 14-9-44-0. 37.7/46.7
  • Cam Akers: (3) 26-113-0; 1-1-4-0. 11.7/12.7

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Henderson: 65-352-4 (0.91 standard scoring/1.02 PPR)
  • Brown: 62-257-2 (0.61/0.75)
  • Akers: 27-117-0 (0.43/0.47)

Offensive snap shares

  • Brown: 176/336 (52.4 percent)
  • Henderson: 119/336 (35.4)
  • Akers: 40/210 (19.0)

Red-zone stats

  • Henderson: 17-35-3 rushing; 3-2-18-1 receiving
  • Brown: 10-31-2; 3-1-(-2)-0
  • Akers: 2-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

There’s definitely some interest here as the Rams have logged the league’s second-most rushing attempts (169) this season and trail only the Browns as well in overall rushing-play percentage at 51.5.

Even though Brown owns a sizable snap edge, Henderson has out-touched Brown in three of the Rams’ last four games for a 62-41 edge during that span. Akers, meanwhile, got the start in Los Angeles’ opening two games before leaving early in Week 2 with a rib-cartilage injury that kept him out of action until Sunday.

As a rookie second-round pick, Akers is the team’s shiny new object, while Brown lends a steady, veteran presence, and Henderson has been the most productive and dynamic of the trio to date. Look for a Henderson/Akers split of the workload going forward with the former drawing the slight edge in touches.

New England Patriots

Primary backs and stats

  • Rex Burkhead: (4 games played) 30 rushes-128yards-2 TDs; 17 targets-12 receptions-101 yards-1 TD. 40.9 standard-scoring fantasy points/52.9 point-per-reception points
  • Sony Michel: (3) 26-173-1; 3-2-23-0. 25.6/27.6
  • James White: (2) 8-43-0; 11-10-68-0. 11.1/21.1
  • Damien Harris: (1) 17-100-0; 0-0-0-0. 10.0/10.0
  • J.J. Taylor: (3) 16-70-0; 2-1-4-0. 7.4/8.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Burkhead: 42-229-3 (0.97 standard scoring/1.26 PPR)
  • Michel: 28-196-1 (0.91/0.99)
  • White: 18-111-0 (0.62/1.17)
  • Harris: 17-100-0 (0.59/0.59)
  • Taylor: 17-74-0 (0.44/0.49)

Offensive snap shares

  • Burkhead: 128/280 (45.7 percent)
  • White: 59/139 (42.4)
  • Harris: 23/75 (30.7)
  • Michel: 60/205 (29.3)
  • Taylor: 25/205 (12.2)

Red-zone stats

  • Burkhead: 8-36-2 rushing; 4-2-23-1 receiving
  • Michel: 5-18-1; 0-0-0-0
  • Taylor: 3-10-0; 1-0-0-0
  • White: 1-7-0; 1-1-(-4)-0
  • Harris: 1-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Pats’ backfield situation is the toughest enigma to crack – for a number of reasons.

First, there’s the sheer number of backs in the mix (five), and then there’s the Cam Newton factor, as the quarterback remains one of the league’s top red-zone rushing threats with 12 carries for 37 yards and four TDs in only three games so far. And, then, most significant of all, this is the Patriots we’re talking about, as the chameleon-like Bill Belichick and his staff change things up on a weekly basis to keep opposing defenses – not to mention fantasy general managers – off-balance.

With Michel on injured reserve, though, and the rookie Taylor seeing only a 12.2-percent snap share in the games he’s played, that whittles the usable fantasy contenders down to three.

White, who’s averaging five catches per game, remains a PPR-format flex factor while Harris – he of the preseason buzz before a finger injury knocked him out of the first three games – made the most recent favorable impression with a team season-high 17 rushes for an even 100 yards in his 2020 debut in Week 4. Burkhead is the jack-of-all trades who always figures to be active and involved to some degree, but we’ve more than likely already seen his best game this season as he accounted for a 65.8 percent (34.8) of his 52.9 PPR points in Week 3.

That leaves White (PPR) and Harris (still need to see more coming out of the Week 5 bye) as the Pats’ best RB fantasy bets.

New York Giants

Primary backs and stats

  • Devonta Freeman: (3 games played) 33 rushes-103 yards-1 TD; 7 targets-6 receptions-62 yards-0 TDs. 22.5 standard-scoring fantasy points/28.5 point-per-reception points
  • Dion Lewis: (5) 13-31-1; 16-9-55-0. 14.6/23.6
  • Wayne Gallman: (4) 15-76-0; 6-5-21-0. 9.4/14.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Freeman: 39-165-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.73 PPR)
  • Lewis: 22-86-1 (0.66/1.07)
  • Gallman: 20-97-0 (0.47; 0.72)

Offensive snap shares

  • Freeman: 89/188 (47.3 percent)
  • Lewis: 124/321 (38.6)
  • Gallman: 43/256 (17.0)

Red-zone stats

  • Freeman: 3-6-1 rushing; 1-1-(-2)-0 receiving
  • Lewis: 1-1-1; 2-1-4-0
  • Gallman: 1-1-0; 1-1-3-0

Outlook

We go from the toughest nut to crack (Patriots) among our five to the easiest, as Freeman is the main man here as long as he can avoid the health issues of recent seasons (18 combined games missed from 2017-19).

The last two weeks, Freeman has out-touched Lewis and Gallman combined by a 34-18 margin and has outgained them 155-88 with a 27.5-14.8 edge in PPR points.

The Giants, though, are saddled with one of the league’s worst offensive lines and overall offenses, keeping Freeman in flex-start territory most weeks instead of the RB2 ranks. 

Extra points

  • The Ravens’ aforementioned Jackson is off to a slow start, ranking 14th among quarterbacks with 113.2 fantasy points through action Sunday. Gardner Minshew (120.7), Ryan Fitzpatrick (120.3), Derek Carr (119.5) and Carson Wentz (113.6) are among the QBs with more points. Jackson still ranks second at the position with his 238 rushing yards on 41 attempts (tied for first), but he only has one rushing score so far. Jackson, though, is mainly falling short as a fantasy passer, ranking 24th (as of Sunday) with 949 passing yards and tying for ninth with nine TD tosses after leading the league with 36 a season ago.
  • Jets WR Jamison Crowder has played in only three of the team’s five games, but he’s had at least 10 targets, seven receptions and 104 receiving yards in each outing while snaring a pair of TD passes for a total of 67.5 PPR points. Crowder’s average of 22.5 PPR points per contest, though, trails only the Packers’ Davante Adams (24.1) among league wideouts.
  • Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill are the only players to score a TD in all five weeks so far this season.
  • Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Myles Gaskin, Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, Amari Cooper and Robby Anderson were the only players with at least 60 touches or 35 receptions and one or fewer TDs through Sunday.
  • The Rams not only have a backfield fantasy conundrum but one at tight end, as well. Tyler Higbee had a monster Week 2 with five receptions for 54 yards and three TDs (28.4 PPR points), but he’s only caught 10-of-12 targets for 122 yards and no scores (22.2 points) in his other four contests combined. Gerald Everett, meanwhile, missed Week 2 but has out-produced Higbee in the other four games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 141 yards and no TDs while scoring on a 2-yard rushing TD (28.3 PPR points).