Category: Statistical Analysis

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 10

Making sense of recent fantasy football performances.

Week 9 was the crazy, unpredictable, off-the-rails week we see every NFL season.

Ten of 14 pointspread underdogs covered and four touchdown-plus favorites lost outright.

The fantasy realm certainly wasn’t spared from the wackiness:

  • Journeyman New York Jets backup Josh Johnson was pressed into action Thursday night and wound up scoring more fantasy points (29.6) than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow combined (26.3).
  • Arizona Cardinals No. 2 running back James Conner paced all players, regardless of position, with a career-high 40.3 fantasy points.
  • Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheus and Malik Turner were three of the eight wide receivers who finished the week with 20 or more fantasy points.
  • The top 10 highest-scoring fantasy tight ends of the week included a trio of Los Angeles Chargers in Stephen Anderson, Donald Parham Jr. and Jared Cook.

Like we said, unforeseeable unruliness.

But which of the eye-catching (or eyesore) Week 9 fantasy performances are we buying as indicators for the rest of the season, and which are we brushing off as one-week abnormalities?

Let us delve deeper into five of the more notable fantasy performances from the wild and wacky Week 9 …

Patrick Mahomes finished 24th among quarterbacks on the week with 12.1 fantasy points (Huddle Performance scoring).

Mahomes somehow got outscored by his quarterback counterpart in the same game, and that was Green Bay Packers second-year QB Jordan Love, who completed only 19-of-34 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown for 15.8 fantasy points himself.

Over the last four seasons, Mahomes’ 12.1 fantasy points Sunday marked his regular-season, full-game low point and only the fifth time in 62 career complete games, including the postseason, in which he’s failed to total at least 15 points.

BUYING or brushing off: Stunningly, two of those five aforementioned sub-15-point outings have come in the last three weeks and were sandwiched around an 18.75-point game in Week 8.

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Mahomes has thrown for two TDs and two interceptions in those three games and has averaged fewer than 5.89 yards per attempt. His career average is 8.1 yards per attempt.

Mahomes, obviously hasn’t been connecting for nearly as many big plays, but even the rest of the Chiefs’ aerial game is off as he’s completed 60.4 percent or fewer of his passes in each of the last three weeks — again well below his 65.9 career completion percentage.

Even more alarming, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the toughest remaining fantasy QB schedule in the league, according to The Huddle’s nifty Strength of Schedule tool.

Add it all up, and we’ve come to the shocking conclusion that Mahomes is no longer a set-it-and-forget-it, locked-in QB1 every week, depending on the week and your other options.

Joe Burrow scored 14.2 fantasy points in Sunday’s 41-16 loss to the Cleveland Browns, coming in 23rd at the position for the week.

It was a season-worst showing for the second-year Cincy QB, who posted only his second sub-20-point outing of the campaign.

Burrow entered the game on a serious fantasy roll, having thrown for three touchdowns and posted at least 24.85 fantasy points in three straight games. But even though the Bengals defense surrendered a season-high 41 points and the opposing Browns came into the contest allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Burrow couldn’t keep up. He failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in his last 12 games, dating back to last season, while tossing a pair of interceptions.

In eight previous games this season, Burrow had at thrown for at least two TDs.

Buying or BRUSHING OFF: The Browns, fresh off a division home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and dealing with the Odell Beckham Jr. distraction last week, clearly entered Sunday’s game as a team on a mission and played like it.

Burrow was sacked a season-high-matching five times and was hit 12 times while completing 28-of-40 pass attempts for 282 yards.

Go-to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was targeted a game-high 13 times, but they only netted six completions for 49 yards and his third touchdown-less outing of the season.

In reality, though, Burrow is going to endure some ups and downs. He’s a second-year QB, who’s made 19 total starts with last season’s knee injury, and even with Sunday’s poor showing, he remains fantasy’s 10th-best quarterback with an average of 23.2 points per game.

And pairing Burrow’s talent with that of his young supporting cast, there’s simply too much upside to be had with the second-year passer.

James Conner scored a trio of TDs en route to 40.3 fantasy points — three more than any other player in Week 9, quarterbacks included.

Conner has now played in 59 career games, but Sunday’s showing produced a career pinnacle in fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) as he topped 30 points for only the fifth time in five seasons.

To get there, it took 21 rushes for 96 yards and two TDs and five catches on five targets for 77 yards and another score to power the Cards’ 31-17 road upset win of the division-rival San Francisco 49ers. Starting QB Kyler Murray and leading wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green were all absent Sunday due to injury/illness while — more significantly for Conner — starting running back Chase Edmonds left after only one 3-yard carry with what was later diagnosed as a high-ankle sprain.

That left Conner to shoulder the backfield load and he wound up accounting for 26 of Arizona’s 36 running back touches. Conner entered the contest averaging 12.4 touches, 49 total yards and 11.5 fantasy points per game.

BUYING or brushing off: With his three TDs Sunday, Conner leapfrogged the injured and idle Derrick Henry and standout wideout Cooper Kupp for the league touchdown lead with 11.

On Monday, word then came down that Edmonds would miss multiple games — likely to include an injured reserve stint — with his high-ankle sprain. Prior to Sunday’s one-carry game, Edmonds averaged 13.1 touches and 79.8 yards from scrimmage over the Cards’ first eight contests.

Now Conner moves into the lead role on the league’s second-highest scoring offense (32.8 points per game) with Eno Benjamin in relief. And if Sunday’s explosion is any kind of indication, Conner will be a weekly RB1 start as long as Edmonds remains sidelined.

Conner hasn’t been in that role since 2018 in his second season with the Steelers when he finished sixth among running backs with 280 total PPR points (21.5 per game).

L.A. Chargers WR Mike Williams totaled 7.8 fantasy points Sunday and wound up 46th in Week 9 scoring at the position.

In the Bolts’ 27-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly, Williams caught two of his five targets for 58 yards and no TDs. One of his catches went for 49 yards, and he did finish second on the team in receiving yards and targets, but four other L.A. pass-catchers finished with more fantasy points, including the three aforementioned tight ends.

And if Williams’ five-target, two-reception stat line sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Those have been his exact totals from each of his last three games, totaling six catches, 104 yards, no scores and 16.4 fantasy points during that span.

In four of his first five games (Weeks 1-3 and 5), Williams had at least nine targets, seven receptions, 82 receiving yards and 22.1 PPR points while totaling six TD grabs in those four contests.

But in his other four outings (Weeks 4 and 7-9), Williams hasn’t more than five targets, two receptions, 58 receiving yards or 7.8 fantasy points while failing to score.

Buying or BRUSHING OFF: Just barely as we’re holding off for another game or so to see if things turn around.

Williams’ numbers certainly are trending in the wrong direction, and there have been reports that a nagging knee issue has helped slow him down in recent weeks.

But we remain big believers in the Chargers’ passing game. QB Justin Herbert ranks fourth with 211 total completions and fifth at the position with an average of 26.4 fantasy points per outing — and the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Williams looked way too good over the first five games of the season to believe he’s now only a WR 3/4.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth totaled 21.4 fantasy points Monday night to wind up pacing all Week 9 tight ends.

The rookie tight end reeled in five of his team high-matching six targets for 43 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Steelers’ 29-27 win over the Bears.

It was the third straight game with at least 12.8 fantasy points for Freiermuth, who has totaled 16 receptions for 145 yards and three TDs during that span, which includes Pittsburgh’s Week 7 bye. It’s also an average of 16.2 fantasy points during that stretch, which is tops among tight ends who have played multiple games since Week 6.

BUYING or brushing off: Most definitely.

It’s the tight end position, first and foremost. Nothing more needs to be added there.

And it’s also the perfect offense for a tight end to thrive in.

Aging QB Ben Roethlisberger entered the week ranked 25th among passers with a 6.6-yard average per attempt, and one of his prime short-area targets of recent seasons, WR JuJu Smith Schuster, was lost for the season in Week 5 with a shoulder injury.

Enter the Penn State rookie who has stepped up and showed out in the Steelers’ three straight wins.

Put it all together, and that makes Freiermuth a TE1 going forward.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 8

Examining several players’ target and touch trends entering Week 8.

A week ago, this space was all about touchdowns — who’s scoring how many and who’s not.

So it’s only fair that we devote this week’s column to the first two T’s — the targets and the touches.

Specifically, we’re spotlighting eight of the more eye-opening player usage rates so far through seven weeks, how they’ve shaped the fantasy football season to date, and what they mean going forward.

So, without further ado, we dive right in, kicking things off with the …

San Francisco 49ers backfield

It’s of little surprise that there is a Niners’ back ranked among the top 25 — No. 25 in fact — in terms of fantasy points per game.

It is a surprise, though, as to whom is that San Francisco rookie RB.

Elijah Mitchell, a sixth-round draft pick (194th overall) out of Louisiana, is that 25th-ranked back, averaging 12.2 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) per game with a total of 48.6 points in four games played.

That means it is not Trey Sermon of Ohio State, the team’s first third-round pick (88th overall), and a running back selected in the middle rounds of myriad fantasy drafts this summer. Mitchell, meanwhile, went undrafted in all but the deepest of non-keeper drafts.

Like Mitchell, Sermon also has been active for four games this season, but he’s totaled only 21.8 PPR points — an average of 5.5 per contest.

Mitchell has started only one more game than Sermon — who actually filled in for the former when he was sidelined with a shoulder injury in Weeks 3 and 4 — but has played 76 more snaps (159-83) and has more than doubled Sermon’s touches (67-33), including a 63-31 advantage in rushing attempts.

Any questions about the pecking order were effectively answered Sunday night as the Niners returned to action with both backs healthy following their Week 6 bye.

Mitchell started and played 37 of 56 offensive snaps (66.1), rushing for a season-high 107 yards and a TD on 18 attempts.

Sermon, meanwhile, played 11 snaps Sunday — all on special teams — as it was second-year RB JaMycal Hasty, who spelled Mitchell and served as the passing-game back with three carries for a yard and three catches on six targets for 15 yards on the cool, rain-soaked night.

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Mitchell hasn’t just out-touched Sermon, he’s been more efficient as well, totaling 326 yards and two TDs on his 67 touches (an average of 4.87 yards per touch), while Sermon has turned his 33 touches into 138 yards (4.18 yards per touch) and one TD.

And paired with the glaring disparity in playing time Sunday night after the 49ers’ coaches had the bye week to sort things out, Mitchell is the San Francisco rookie running back you want to use and roster for the foreseeable future.

49ers wideouts

There’s also been a clear and unexpected disparity of wide receiver targets by the Bay.

A year ago, first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk was San Fran’s unquestioned main man, finishing with 96 targets — 22 more than any other Niners’ pass-catcher — 60 receptions and 66 total touches, good for 825 total yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games. Those numbers equated 184.5 PPR points — an average of 15.4 per game, which tied for 17th among wideouts who played at least 10 contests.

Meanwhile in 2020, wide receiver Deebo Samuel — a second-round pick in 2019 — battled through an injury-filled season, garnering 44 targets, 30 receptions and 41 touches, good for 417 yards, one TD and 80.7 total fantasy points — an average of 11.5 per game.

Now six Niners games into 2021, Samuel has not only taken over as the team’s favored target, he’s dominated the pass-catching looks to a truly shocking degree. Samuel has 63 targets — 35 more than any other 49er — and has turned them into 38 receptions for 648 yards.

Add in six rushes for 22 yards and another TD, and Samuel has accounted for five of the team’s 13 offensive TDs and an amazing 44.4 percent of the team’s total receiving yards.

In terms of fantasy points, Samuel has totaled 135.0 — an average of 22.5, which trails only the Rams’ Cooper Kupp (27.2) among league wideouts.

Aiyuk, meanwhile, also has played in every game but has totaled only 16 targets and 18 touches, good for 96 receiving yards, 107 total yards, one TD and 25.7 fantasy points.

And, yes, that’s 25.7 fantasy points total — only 3.2 more than Samuel’s per-game average.

Again, truly shocking — and beyond disappointing for those fantasy general managers who took Aiyuk three or four rounds and 25 or so picks higher, on average, than where Samuel was drafted this summer.

Blame it on Aiyuk’s placement in coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, reportedly with the wide receiver’s work and practice ethic — or relative lack of it — drawing Shanny’s ire. For that reason, Aiyuk didn’t draw a target while playing 26 offensive snaps in Week 1 and has only exceeded four targets once (six in Week 3) in the ensuing five games.

The team’s post-bye week usage rates were especially telling in Sunday night’s 30-18 loss to the Indianapolis Colts — and they were telling us not much has changed in the Niners’ wide receiver pecking order.

Samuel was targeted a team-most 11 (out of 27) times from QB Jimmy Garoppolo and accounted for 100 of the Niners’ 181 receiving yards and only receiving TD. Aiyuk, meanwhile, caught his only target for six yards.

Going forward, Samuel has to be treated as a WR1, while the doghoused Aiyuk — stunningly — is completely droppable as this point.

Atlanta Falcons backfield

The Falcons were another team Sunday coming off a Week 6 bye, and those who were hoping to see more clarity in the team’s backfield got their wish.

It’s a clarity, though, that keeps trending further away from preseason expectations.

In Sunday’s 30-28 win in Miami, Cordarrelle Patterson carried the ball a team-high 14 times for 60 yards and a TD while catching 2-of-5 targets for a yard. He played on 73 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.

Mike Davis, meanwhile, played 60 percent of the snaps but only received four carries for 10 yards and wasn’t targeted in the passing game for the first time all season.

It was a continuation of a diminishing playing time trend for Davis who has seen his share of the Falcons’ backfield touches decrease each week since debuting with a 66.6 percent share in Week 1. Sunday, it was 19 percent — falling below 40 percent for the first time this season — although it should be noted that Davis did hobble off the field late in the fourth quarter with an unknown issue and didn’t return.

Patterson, meanwhile, has taken the increased workload and run with it.

With 82 touches in six games on the season, Patterson is three away from his career season high of 85 set last season in 16 games with the Bears. He’s totaled 529 scrimmage yards and six TDs on those 85 touches, good for 115.9 total PPR points — an average of 19.3 per game, which currently ranks seventh among all running backs.

In short, it’s in the lead for the unlikeliest fantasy success story of the season.

On the other hand, it’s been a tale of woe for the fantasy GMs who spent a midround pick on Davis.

He has 60.2 total fantasy points on the season, averaging 10 per outing. Davis’ high-water mark, though, was only 14.1 points in Week 5 and was followed up by his season-worst one-point showing Sunday against the Dolphins.

At 30, Patterson is two years older than Davis, but six weeks in, we have to accept reality that not only is Patterson the best fantasy back on the Falcons, but he’s a legit fantasy RB1 as well.

Among running backs, only D’Andre Swift (42), Najee Harris (34) and Myles Gaskin (28) have logged more receptions than Patterson’s 27, and only Swift (391) has had more receiving yards than Patterson’s 296. And that’s with Patterson already having had his bye week.

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Patterson is tied for sixth in the league with six total TDs, and in terms of yards per touch, only Washington’s J.D. McKissic (6.87) is averaging more yards per touch than Patterson’s 6.45.

Davis, as most time-share RBs are, is still worth a bench spot in 12-team and larger leagues, but Patterson — believe it or not — has become a locked-in starter, regardless of league size or format.

Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers

Keenan Allen has led the Chargers in receiving yards in four straight seasons and in five of nine campaigns overall since his rookie year of 2013.

Allen also has dominated the team target share in each of the last four seasons, pacing the Bolts by an average of 60.3 targets per year more than the next-closest man.

But coming out of the team’s Week 7 bye, it’s fellow WR Mike Williams who leads the Chargers with 498 receiving yards — 79 ahead of Allen’s total of 419 — and has done so on six fewer receptions (39-33) and two fewer targets (58-56).

And thanks to his 6-to-1 TD advantage, Williams also is averaging 5.3 more fantasy points per game (19.8-14.5) than his more experienced teammate, ranking as a midlevel WR1, while Allen is currently a high-end WR3.

Allen is still averaging a very healthy 9.7 targets per game — a slight increase, actually, from his 9.5 average over the previous four seasons.

Williams, though, has seen his target share increase dramatically.

Since his rookie season of 2017 through 2020, Williams averaged 4.7 targets and 2.7 receptions per game.  So far this season, those averages are 9.3 targets and 5.5 receptions as second-year QB Justin Herbert spreads the ball around more (RB Austin Ekeler and TE Jared Cook have combined for 65 targets and 48 catches as well).

The increased usage consistency — Williams has only one game out of six this season with fewer than five targets — makes him a weekly WR starter.

Allen, meanwhile, certainly remains a viable weekly WR2 fantasy starter with ample upside, but he’s no longer the Bolts’ unquestioned target dominator of recent seasons and now has a lower weekly fantasy floor.

Briefly, four more intriguing player usage situations of note …

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ backfield: In the Bucs’ four games since a Week 3 loss to the Rams, Leonard Fournette has accounted for 68.9 percent of the team’s running back touches (an average of 21 per game) and has averaged 21.4 PPR points per outing. Over that same span, fellow backs Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard are averaging 9.5 touches and 9.2 fantasy points — combined — per contest.
  • Cincinnati Bengals pass catchers: With 51 targets in seven games, rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase has only six more than fellow WR Tyler Boyd and eight more than WR Tee Higgins. Similarly, Chase only has a slight lead in receptions with 35 to Boyd’s 32 and Higgins’ 25, but he has more receiving yards (754-585), TD catches (6-3) and total PPR points (146.2-133.5) than Boyd and Higgins combined.
  • Chicago Bears wide receivers: From 2019-20, WR Allen Robinson totaled 305 targets, 200 receptions and 517.8 PPR points — per-game averages of 9.5 targets, 6.3 catches and 16.2 fantasy points — which was 144 targets, 99 receptions and 281.6 fantasy points more than any other Chicago wide receiver or tight end during that span. Seven games into the 2021 season, though, Robinson trails fellow wideout Darnell Mooney in targets (44-40), receptions (27-23) and fantasy points (68.5-54) while seeing his per-game averages slip to 5.7 targets, 3.3 receptions and 7.7 fantasy points (71st among WRs who have played at least three games) in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack under rookie QB Justin Fields. Yikes. Hopefully you traded Robinson while he still had some value.
  • Baltimore Ravens backfield: In seven games this season, the Ravens are averaging 30.6 rushing attempts and 149.4 rushing yards per game — well off their league-leading 2019-20 averages of 36 attempts and 199 ground yards per outing. And with QB Lamar Jackson’s 2021 per-game attempts (11.2-10.9) and rushing yards (73.7-68.6) averages only down slightly from that previous span, it means the rest of the team is averaging 5.1 fewer attempts and 44.7 fewer rushing yards per outing. Of the six backs who have logged a carry for the Ravens this season, only Latavius Murray (9.8, 10.5) is averaging more than 6.6 rushing attempts and 8.4 touches per game, and he currently ranks 43rd at the position with 51.7 total fantasy points and 47th with an average of 8.6 points per game (minimum three games).

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 7

Examining touchdowns scored thus far in 2021 to find useful fantasy nuggets.

Touchdowns. Tuddies. Scores. Paydirt. Sixers. TDs.

Whatever you want to call them, they’re under the TTT fantasy microscope this week.

More specifically, we’re looking at who’s scoring them and who’s not, and what it has meant for fantasy so far — and going forward — as we approach midseason.

We’re doing a touchdown stat analysis of all of the major fantasy positions, including defense, and we start (as usual) with the …

Quarterbacks

Total TDs (passing + rushing)

Patrick Mahomes 19 (18 passing-1 rushing), Tom Brady 18 (17-1), Josh Allen 17 (15-2), Kyler Murray 17 (14-3), Dak Prescott 16 (16-0), Matthew Stafford 16 (16-0), Justin Herbert 15 (14-1), Joe Burrow 14 (14-0), Aaron Rodgers 14 (12-2), Kirk Cousins 13 (13-0), Jaylen Hurts 13 (8-5), Jameis Winston (13 (12-1)

Fantasy takeaways

  • Mahomes, the current positional leader in average fantasy points per game with 31.8 (Huddle Performance scoring), is on pace for 54 total TDs and 51 passing scores, which would eclipse his career highs from 2018 when he paced QBs with 494.1 fantasy points (30.9 per contest). KC’s less-than-formidable defense, which is surrendering 29.3 points per game, is prodding Mahomes to keep the pedal to metal late into games.
  • The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (fifth with an average of 28.6 fantasy points) and the Panthers’ Sam Darnold (10th with 24.6) are the only current top-10 fantasy QBs who don’t rank among the top 12 in total TDs. Jackson (11 total TDs), though, leads all QBs with 392 rushing yards and is averaging a career-best 281 aerial yards per game, while Darnold (12 total TDs) is tied with Hurts for the positional lead with five rushing scores.
  • Prescott (seventh with 26.9 fantasy points per outing) and Stafford (eighth with 26.4) are the only top-10 fantasy QBs without a rushing score. Prescott has run for 70 yards on 22 carries, while Stafford has 26 yards on 18 rushes. Both QBs, not coincidentally, are coming back from injury-marred 2020 seasons.

TD pass percentage leaders

Winston 10.3 percent, Stafford 8.0, Burrow 8.0, Russell Wilson 8.0, Mahomes 7.4, Prescott 7.4, Murray 7.2, Allen 6.5, Rodgers 6.5, Brady 6.4

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Playing on the run-heaviest team in the league (54.74 percent of total plays), the Saints’ Winston ranks 31st in the league with 116 passing attempts but is tied for ninth with 12 TD tosses. Winston, who has had games of five and four TD passes so far, is averaging only 178.4 passing yards per contest and ranks 17th among QBs who have played three or more games with 21.4 fantasy points per outing.
  • Stafford on Sunday enjoyed his third game this season with three or more passing scores and has had a banner start to his first season in Sean McVay’s Rams offense. In his 12 seasons with the Lions, Stafford had a TD pass percentage of 4.6, with his full-season high-water mark coming in 2011 when he had a 6.2 rate, throwing for a career-high 41 TDs. That’s the only season in which he’s had more than 32 scoring passes.
  • Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes in all six of his games this season after doing so in only four of his 10 games as a rookie a year ago when he ranked 28th in the league with 3.2 TD toss percentage.

Running backs

Total TDs (rushing + receiving)

Derrick Henry 10 (10-0), Austin Ekeler 7 (4 rushing-3 receiving), Ezekiel Elliott 6 (5-1), Aaron Jones 6 (4-2), James Conner 5 (5-0), Darrell Henderson 5 (4-1), Kareem Hunt 5 (5-0), Cordarrelle Patterson 5 (1-4), James Robinson 5 (5-0), Jonathan Taylor 5 (4-1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Ekeler, fantasy’s second-ranked back with 21.5 points (point-per-reception scoring) per game, has already set a career season high with his four rushing TDs. Ekeler is on pace to score 20 TDs, which would smash his 2019 career high of 11 — a total that included a running back-best eight receiving TDs.
  • Henry, who has finished either first or second among RBs with 17 and 18 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, is on pace for a whopping 28 scores in 2021. He is averaging a league-most 29.6 total touches per game — a full seven touches more than any other player.
  • Patterson already has as many TDs (5) in five games this season as he totaled in his previous three seasons combined and is tied with the Packers’ Jones for the RB lead with four receiving scores. Patterson’s season career high for TDs was set back in his rookie season of 2013 with the Vikings when he had nine total (four receiving, three rushing and two on kickoff returns).

Most total touches with 1 or fewer TDs

Mark Ingram 90 touches (1 TD), Chuba Hubbard 85 (1), Alexander Mattison 83 (1), Chase Edmonds 79 (0), Javonte Williams 79 (1), Tony Pollard 76 (1), Miles Sanders 75 (0), Devin Singletary 73 (1), Christian McCaffrey 68 (1), A.J. Dillon 58 (1), Sony Michel 58 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • It’s not surprising to see Edmonds high on this list as Conner is now the team’s goal-line back with all five of his rushing scores coming from inside the opposition’s 5-yard line on seven total carries. Edmonds has had one carry inside the enemy 5-yard line but still is the only running back ranked among the top 34 in total PPR points (17th with 73.9) who has yet to score a TD.
  • It’s interesting to see both of the Panthers’ top backs listed here with McCaffrey and the rookie Hubbard combining for two TDs on 153 touches to date. Nineteen of those 153 combined touches and both of those TDs for the Carolina backs have come in the red zone. The aforementioned Darnold, meanwhile, has logged six red-zone rushes and has scored on five of them.
  • Sanders has yet to find his way into the end zone after scoring six TDs in each of first two NFL seasons. Sanders has a minus-one yard on nine red-zone rushes this season, including minus-five on four inside-the-5-yard-line carries. The second-year QB Hurts, meanwhile, has stolen the Philly close-in thunder with 47 yards and five TDs on 14 red-zone rushes. Sanders is 46th among RBs with an average of 6.5 fantasy points.

Wide receivers

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Cooper Kupp 7 (7 receiving, 0 rushing), Mike Williams 6 (6-0), DeAndre Hopkins 6 (6-0), Marquise Brown 5 (5-0), Ja’Marr Chase 5 (5-0), Tyreek Hill 5 (5-0), D.K. Metcalf 5 (5-0), Adam Thielen 5 (5-0), Antonio Brown 4 (4-0), Amari Cooper 4 (4-0), Mike Evans 4 (4-0), CeeDee Lamb 4 (4-0), Deebo Samuel 4 (3-1), Emmanuel Sanders 4 (4-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Kupp, whose two-TD game Sunday against the Giants was his third of the season, also leads the league in targets (68), red-zone targets (12), and is tied with Davante Adams and Hill with a league-most 46 receptions. His seven TD grabs this season already is the second-highest total of his five-season career, trailing only the 10 he had on 134 targets in 2019 when he finished fourth among wideouts with 270.5 PPR points.
  • Thielen finished third a season ago with 14 touchdown catches thanks to his mega-efficient red-zone production, reeling in 16-of-19 targets for 115 yards and 13 scores inside the opposition’s 20-yard line. He’s at it again this season, catching all six of his red-zone targets for 37 yards and four TDs.
  • In his last 11 games, including three last postseason, the Bucs’ Brown has caught 57 of 82 targets for 765 yards and 10 TDs — an average of 17.6 PPR points per outing. He’s averaging 19.1 through five games played in ’21.

Most targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Keenan Allen 58 targets (1 TD), Brandin Cooks 57 (1), Jakobi Meyers 52 (0), Michael Pittman Jr. 46 (1), DeVonta Smith 44 (1), Calvin Ridley 42 (1), Chase Claypool 42 (1), Laviska Shenault 41 (0), Darnell Mooney 39 (1), Tyler Boyd 38 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Allen has notched six or more TD grabs in each of his previous four seasons, but the Chargers’ target leader ranks fifth on the team with his one scoring reception so far. Fellow wideout Mike Williams’ ascendance (six TD catches on 33 receptions and 56 targets) has hurt Allen as he currently ranks 26th with an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game.
  • Since the start of last season, Diggs leads the league in targets (224) and receptions (164) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,998) but is tied for 16th with 10 TD grabs in 22 regular-season games. Among wide receivers, Diggs still ranks third, though, in total PPR points (423.9).
  • Meyers has 174 targets since the start of the 2019 season — 83 more than any other Patriots wide receiver or tight end — but famously is still waiting on his first NFL TD. During that span, including the postseason, only the Panthers (40) and Jets (39) have thrown fewer TD passes than the Patriots’ 44 in 39 games.

Tight ends

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Dawson Knox 5 (5 receiving-0 rushing), Rob Gronkowski 4 (4-0), Travis Kelce 4 (4-0), Mo Alie-Cox 3 (3-0), Mark Andrews 3 (3-0), Noah Fant 3 (3-0), Hunter Henry 3 (3-0), Juwan Johnson 3 (3-0), Dalton Schultz 3 (3-0),  C.J. Uzomah 3 (3-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • Knox (finger) has been a surprise at fantasy’s shallowest position as he’s already doubled his career TD total six games into the season. Essentially he’s been the 2021 Robert Tonyan, ranking 17th at the position with 24 targets and 12th with 21 receptions but leading the way with five scoring receptions.
  • A high ratio of TDs to targets also is inflating the fantasy stocks of the Bengals’ Uzomah, the Colts’ Alie-Cox and the Saints’ Johnson … all have three TDs on 18 or fewer targets so far.
  • Gronk has missed the past three games with a rib injury but still is tied for second among 2021 tight ends with his four scoring grabs on 21 targets and 16 receptions. In his last 11 games, Gronkowski has eight TDs on 50 targets and 32 catches — meaning one of every four catches is counting for six points.

Most total targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Mike Gesicki 43 targets (1 TD), Kyle Pitts 36 (1), Tyler Conklin 30 (1), George Kittle 28 (0), Dan Arnold 26 (0), Jonnu Smith 25 (1), Cole Kmet 24 (0), Evan Engram 21 (1), Pat Freiermuth 20 (1), Robert Tonyan 20 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

  • On the other side of the touchdown ledger, the Dolphins’ Gesicki ranks fifth in 2021 tight end targets (43) and sixth in receptions (30) but has only one scoring grab to show for it. From 2019-20, he had 11 TDs on 174 total targets.
  • Niners star Kittle began his career with 12 TD catches in his first three seasons, but with a string of injuries limiting him to 12 games since the start of last season, he’s only added two more touchdowns since on 91 targets and 67 receptions.
  • As expected, regression has hit the Packers’ Tonyan and Patriots’ Smith hard this season with one TD apiece so far. In 2020, they finished ranked tied for first (11) and third (9), respectively, a year ago in tight end TDs, both with 52 touches or fewer.

Defensive/special teams

Non-offensive TDs (defensive TDs + special teams TDs )

Cowboys 3 (3-0), Buccaneers 2 (2-0), Jaguars 2 (0-2), 13 teams with 1 apiece

Fantasy takeaway …

  • The top annual fantasy team defenses/special team units typically feature multiple return-score TDs, and this season is no exception. The top eight 2021 D/STs, according to Huddle Performance scoring, all have at least one non-offensive touchdown, led by the league-leading Cowboys (57 total fantasy points) with their trio of interception-return TDs.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 5

Six fantasy football stats that should surprise even the most experienced gamers.

NFL Week 4 is now in the books, which means we are roughly a quarter way through the 2021 fantasy season.

So with a decent sample size also in the ledger, here’s a six-pack of the more surprising fantasy-oriented statistics we’ve come across so far.

Here goes, starting with …

83.4 — total fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) for Atlanta Falcons RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Not only does that total easily lead all Falcons skill-position players — a contingent that includes top-five-round fantasy draft picks Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and Mike Davis — but it trails only the Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry (101.5) and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Austin Ekeler (84.4) among all running backs and ranks behind just the Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp (102.6), the Kansas City Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill (102.3), the San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel (95.9), and the Carolina Panthers’ D.J. Moore (89.7) among wide receivers as he’s eligible at both positions on several fantasy league host sites.

More improbably, Patterson’s 83.4 fantasy points have come on just 49 total opportunities, 45 touches and 97 offensive snaps (a 34.4 percent share of Atlanta’s total offensive snaps).

And with his 354 total yards from scrimmage and five total TDs, it already ranks as the sixth-best fantasy season in nine years for the 30-year-old journeyman who’s playing on his fifth team.

Sure, scoring a TD on every ninth touch, as Patterson has this season, isn’t exactly sustainable, but this impressive start very likely will just lead to more snaps, opportunities and touches going forward for the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Patterson — especially with the lead back Davis struggling with low-efficiency averages of 3.1 yards per rush and 3.6 yards per touch.

It’s also been a slow start for Ridley so far with the wideout averaging career lows in yards per reception (9.4) and yards per target (6.1) while scoring one TD. The promising Pitts, meanwhile, is still awaiting his first trip to the end zone while going through the typical rookie tight end struggles with a 57.7 catch percentage on 26 targets.

5 — Rushing TDs for Carolina Panthers QB Sam Darnold, which not only paces all quarterbacks but is tied for the overall league lead.

Perhaps you’ve caught some of the clever “Cam” Darnold mentions, referencing a certain run-heavy former Carolina Panthers quarterback.

Now, sure, Darnold has as many ground scores as he does passing TDs so far, but his overall rushing figures aren’t exactly Newtonian numbers with Darnold only ranking 20th among quarterbacks with 52 rushing yards to date and averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. The five rushing TDs also have matched his career total entering the season after three campaigns with the New York Jets.

Let’s not short Darnold’s aerial start, though, as he’s passed for the sixth most yards (1,189) in the league so far while averaging a career-high 8.1 yards per attempt. His current passer rating (95.4) and QBR (62.7) are easily on track to hit career high-water marks.

Still, no QB has compiled more rushing fantasy points so far than Darnold’s 35.2 as he ranks fifth overall at the position with 114.7 total fantasy points. And while he doesn’t figure to continue scoring on 25 percent of his rushing attempts going forward, his 3.4 TD pass percentage is due some positive regression with the weapons at his disposal in Carolina as it ranks below his 3.7 percentage during his Jets’ tenure.

At the least, Darnold has put himself in the low-end QB1 conversation and looks to be quite the find as a last-ditch late pick in two-quarterback leagues.

0 — Running backs, tight ends or wide receivers currently ranked among the top 12 at their respective fantasy positions for the league’s highest-scoring (and only undefeated) team, the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals.

Notice we didn’t mention quarterback as Kyler Murray trails only the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (132.1) with 128.6 fantasy points (Huddle PPR scoring). Murray has had a hand in 12 of the Cards’ 16 offensive TDs with nine passing and three rushing scores to rank second among QBs with 12 total touchdowns.

But that’s where the fantasy predictability ends with the Cards.

Newly signed running back James Conner has accounted for the other four non-Murray offensive TDs — all on rushes of four yards or fewer — but those TDs account for more than half of his fantasy-point production as he ranks 25th at the position with 46.8 PPR points on 56 touches.

Holdover Chase Edmonds, meanwhile, ranks 13th among league running backs with a team-leading 395 total yards, including 140 on a team-high 20 receptions, but he has yet to find his way across the goal line on 63 touches.

At tight end, seventh-year vet Maxx Williams has been a nice surprise, reeling in 15 of his 16 targets for 179 yards and a TD to rank 13th at the position with 38.9 fantasy points.

The most surprising and intriguing numbers, though, belong to the Cards’ wide receivers.

It’s no shocker that DeAndre Hopkins is pacing the contingent in targets and fantasy points, but 6.25 targets and 14.4 fantasy points per outing isn’t what anyone envisioned when they spent a second-round fantasy pick on the veteran wideout, who currently ranks 24th at the position with 57.5 total points.

WRs Christian Kirk (52.4 fantasy points) and A.J. Green (51.8) also are top-30 fantasy receivers, ranking 29th and 30th, respectively, while rookie Rondale Moore (44.3) ranks 46th, thanks largely to a 24.4-point Week 2 outburst.

It’s been a tightly packed wideout quartet, though, with all four falling between 18-25 targets, 15-17 receptions, and 223-248 scrimmage yards.

Good news for Green, Kirk and Moore fantasy owners, but not so swell for the D-Hop GMs.

25 — targets for Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods, which is 21 fewer than teammate Cooper Kupp’s league-leading total of 46

Woods has led the Rams in targets in each of his first three seasons in L.A., averaging a robust 8.4 per game.

Kupp, meanwhile, has been essentially a co-WR1 with Woods, attracting only 10 fewer targets than his teammate the last two seasons following his injury-marred, eight-game 2018 campaign. In that time, Kupp averaged 8.0 targets per contest.

But with ballyhooed arrival of new QB Matthew Stafford this season, Kupp’s usage has soared to 11.5 targets per game, fueling his ascension to the top of the fantasy wideout heap with 102.6 total points.

Woods, meanwhile, has seen his per-game looks dip to 6.25 targets per contest, and he came out of Week 4 tied for 40th among wideouts with 46.0 total fantasy points. It’s been a frustrating start for Woods and his fantasy owners alike, and after he caught a 14-yard scoring pass in garbage time of Sunday’s 37-20 home loss to the Cardinals, he purposely flung the ball aside for emphasis.

Woods’ decline in targets also has led to an apparent conversation with head coach Sean McVay, who was quoted in a post-Week 4 interview saying “Robert is a leader, he’s a captain, and he’s been doing a great job up to this point. We just need to get him some more opportunities, and that starts with me.”

Don’t expect Kupp’s WR 1a status to change as he and Stafford simply have established too strong of a connection. But Woods is too talented to be taking this distant of a backseat, so look for his looks to jump up much closer to his 8.4-target average of recent seasons as opposing defenses invariably start shading more coverage Kupp’s way.

20 — receptions for Dallas Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz, which ranks fourth among league tight ends

Schultz also ranks fourth overall at the position of fantasy scarcity with 58.1 PPR points — an average of 14.5 per outing.

This isn’t a total shocker given that Schultz did finish 2020 ranked 10th among fantasy tight ends with 148.5 total points — an average of 9.3 per game. But with injured fellow tight end Blake Jarwin and QB Dak Prescott back from injuries that scuttled the majority of their 2020 seasons, and WR CeeDee Lamb’s anticipated second-year leap, Schultz’s fantasy production figured to go down — not up.

However, with opposing defenses far more concerned about the Cowboys’ other weapons, Schultz has taken advantage with a highly productive efficiency, reeling in 20 of 23 targets for 201 yards and a team-lead-matching three TD receptions.

Among league tight ends, only highly drafted studs Travis Kelce (24), Darren Waller (24) and T.J. Hockenson (22) have more receptions than Schultz so far.

Looking forward, WR Michael Gallup is due back soon from an early-season injury calf injury — just another reason why Schultz likely won’t wind up with enough target volume to maintain his elite TE1 ranking on a run-heavy team.

But, as 2020 and the first quarter of this season have shown, Schultz has earned a place as a starter in the majority of 10-team fantasy leagues.

86 and 55 — passing attempts and completions for New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston, the fewest in both categories among quarterbacks who have started four games

Only one team is attempting fewer than 25 passes per game or passing on fewer than 47 percent of their total plays. And it’s not the perennially run-heavy Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns, who lead the league with an average of 177 ground yards per game.

Somewhat stunningly, it’s head coach Sean Payton’s New Orleans Saints, who are attempting only 22.5 passes per contest and throwing on 42.2 percent of their total plays — a full 5.0 percentage points behind the next lowest team, the Browns.

It’s most certainly a 180-degree turn from five seasons ago when the Drew Brees-led Saints ranked second in the league with an average of 42.1 passes per game — throwing on 63.4 percent of their total plays.

The lack of air attempts has certainly had an effect on fantasy fortunes in the Big Easy.

Jameis Winston has thrown for only 613 yards — a full 260 fewer than any other QB who’s started all four weeks. And even though Winston opened the season with five passing TDs and 31.1 fantasy points — on just 20 attempts and 14 completions — he’s totaled three aerial scores and 43.5 fantasy points in his three games since to rank 23rd among fantasy QBs on the season.

Only two New Orleans pass-catchers have double-digit receptions so far, with WR Deonte Harris leading the way with 11 for a team-high 164 yards.

Preseason WR sleeper Marquez Callaway has only drawn 13 targets in four games, catching nine of them for 137 yards and a TD. That’s 28.7 PPR points — 72nd among wideouts.

Stud RB Alvin Kamara is averaging a career-high 15.6 rushing attempts per game — way up from pre-2021 average of 11.2 — but his PPR value has taken a noticeable ding with only 10 receptions on his team-leading 14 targets for 62 yards so far to rank 15th among RBs with 57.9 total fantasy points.

Even with the expanded 17-game schedule, Kamara is on pace for 43 receptions and 264 receiving yards. He’s never had fewer than 81 catches and 533 receiving yards in any of his first four seasons.

Perhaps the pending midseason return of injured No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas will inspire more passing attempts in the Big Easy. But then again, Thomas could simply take his place on the list of fantasy victims of the new aerial-averse Saints.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 2

Which surprise Week 1 standouts are the real deal in fantasy football?

NFL 2021 is upon us with the first 16 of a record 272 games in the books to kick off the league’s longest-ever regular season.

We witnessed the typical mix of expected (Patrick Mahomes rallying the Kansas City Chiefs from a double-digit deficit to a win), unexpected (the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles completely dominating the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, as road underdogs), and the downright strange (reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers laying a 3-point egg in a 35-point neutral-site beatdown at the hands of Jameis Winston and the temporarily displaced New Orleans Saints).

Fantasy football-wise, there were the usual Week 1 standouts who came out of nowhere to blow up on benches or who are now taunting and tempting fanasy general managers from the waiver wire.

But which of these opening-week standouts are flash-in the-pan fool’s gold (recall Mitchell Trubisky, Malcolm Brown and Darius Slayton from Week 1 a season ago), and which are the real deal (Robby Anderson and Logan Thomas, lightly regarded in 2020 drafts, also had big opening weeks a year ago)?

Here’s the best-guess fantasy forecast for 10 of the surprise standouts (going by relative preseason ADPs) of the opening weekend and whether we’re buying in or simply bypassing …

Saints QB Jameis Winston

Fantasy position rank (Huddle PPR scoring): 6th with 31.1 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying.

Sure, we all know that throwing a touchdown pass on every fourth attempt as Winston did Sunday (5 TDs, 20 attempts) is far from sustainable, but Sean Payton’s offensive system is.

It’s a system that established Drew Brees as a locked-in top 10 fantasy option for nearly 15 seasons, and Winston — with his superior deep-passing ability compared to the twilight-era Brees and better mobility (he rushed for 37 yards Sunday) — has the skills to thrive in this offense.

That’s as long as Winston can avoid the crippling interception clusters that ended his starting run in Tampa. Any sort of relapse will be sure to have Payton reconsidering and inserting his longtime favorite Taysom Hill for more snaps.

There also is a question about the talent level of the Saints’ current collection of pass-catchers outside of super-stud RB Alvin Kamara. But if wideouts Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway, Kenny Stills and Tre’Quan Smith and tight ends Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman can outperform expectations and hold things together until No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas (hopefully) is ready to return from injury in a month or so, Winston has definite QB1 staying power.

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff

Fantasy position rank: 8th with 30.3 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Bypassing — at least in standard-size, one-quarterback leagues.

No quarterback had more garbage-time production in Week 1 than Goff, who attempted 57 passes (trailing only Dak Prescott’s 58 on Thursday) as the Lions were trailing by multiple touchdowns from the second quarter on Sunday against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.

Detroit’s new starter did complete two-thirds of those attempts for 338 yards a trio of TDs and even a pair of two-point conversions, but Goff averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt with 20 of his 56 targets going to running backs. So it was volume-driven production to be sure.

And, hey, we know with the Lions’ overall talent level that Goff is sure to have plenty of opportunity to rack up garbage-time stats, but it’s certainly not something you want to rely on from your starting QB in 10- to 14-team leagues — especially given the Lions’ arguably league-worst wide receiver corps.

Houston Texans QB Tyrod Taylor

Fantasy position rank: 12th with 26.6 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying in two-QB leagues or as a fall-back option if you waited on QB and are already nervous about your starter in your single-quarterback league.

Unlike Goff, Taylor produced the majority of his QB1 stats (21-of-33 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and 4-40 rushing) with his team leading by multiple scores Sunday against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars.

Taylor isn’t spectacular, but he’s a steady veteran hand who’s good at avoiding turnovers. He also offers upside with his legs as his 40 yards rushing Sunday on 10 attempts ranked fourth among QBs for the opening weekend.

Lions RB Jamaal Williams

Fantasy position rank: Tied for 2nd with 25.0 PPR points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — as running back depth or as a flex position starting option in 12-team-or-larger leagues.

As we discussed above with Goff’s garbage-time numbers, Williams isn’t going to see nine targets (and eight receptions) per week.

But he is going to be involved in the Lions’ offense as the team’s coaches promised as much on several occasions during the offseason. On Sunday against the Niners, Williams had 17 touches to lead back D’Andre Swift’s 19 and finished with 0.6 more PPR points thanks to his superior yards-per-carry average (6.0-3.5) while logging only two fewer rushing attempts (11-9).

And given Swift’s health question marks even as a second-year back, Williams is at the ready to assume the every-down RB duties in the Motor City.

Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon

Fantasy position rank: 7th with 20.8 fantasy points.

Buying or bypassing? Buying.

A number of fantasy pundits and GMs were ready to cast Gordon aside this offseason when the Broncos moved up in the second round to draft RB Javonte Williams in late April.

And while the team loves the hard-running Williams — he had three more rushing attempts (14-11) than his veteran teammate in Sunday’s win over the New York Giants — we saw the old MGIII rise to the occasion in the Meadowlands, displaying more explosiveness (a game-sealing 70-yard TD burst in the fourth quarter) and getting more work in the passing game (catching all three of his targets for 17 yards while Williams had one catch on one target for a minus-4 yards).

The rookie is certainly going to stay involved and could easily command roughly 50 percent of the Denver RB touches, but the talented Gordon was simply written off too soon and figures to have solid RB2/flex appeal for the foreseeable future.

San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

Fantasy position rank: 13th with 16.4 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — mainly due to the RB-friendly system he plays in — but resist the temptation to overpay.

With third-round rookie RB Trey Sermon a surprise, healthy scratch and veteran starting back Raheem Mostert going down early in Sunday’s game with a knee — and yet another — injury that is expected to sideline him for the first half of the season, Mitchell was suddenly handed the valuable keys as the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan attack.

The rookie sixth-round pick took the gig and ran with it, accounting for 19 of the team’s 22 RB carries and rushing for 104 yards, including a 38-yard scoring burst in the second quarter.

As impressive as the debut was, Shanahan’s running back master plan in any given week remains as unpredictable as ever, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sermon — who was clearly sent a message with his Week 1 inactive designation — getting the bulk of the work in Week 2 or JaMychal Hasty, who received a pair of touches Sunday — suddenly elevated into the lead role to see what he can do.

That said, the most likely Niners backfield scenario is that Mitchell has earned another turn as the team’s lead back and that makes the rookie a must pick-up in almost all leagues.

Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk

Fantasy position rank: 10th with 24.0 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — but only as a deeper-league bench stash.

Three other Arizona wideouts (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore) received as many targets (five) as Kirk did in Sunday’s surprise thrashing of the host Tennessee Titans, but none were more efficient than Kirk, who reeled in all five for 70 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Cards are in need of a consistently productive pass-catcher to emerge opposite the stud WR1 Hopkins, but Kirk has so far shown only WR2 flashes in his boom-or-bust three seasons. In 2020, for example, he had a midseason run of three straight 20-point-plus games, but he topped 10 PPR points in only three of his 11 other contests on the season.

Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams

Fantasy position rank: 14th with 22.2 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Intriguing as always but just renting for now.

Speaking of boom-or-bust wide receivers, the Bolts’ Williams is even more mercurial. In 2020, he had four games with at least 17.1 PPR points, but he also had seven contests with 5.8 or fewer.

Perhaps it’s just a simple matter of volume.

On Sunday against host Washington, Williams did attract double-digit targets (12) — only one fewer than WR1 Keenan Allen — for only the fourth time in 57 career games and turned those into a career-high eight catches for 82 yards and a TD in the Chargers’ 20-16 win.

The Bolts most certainly have room for another productive pass-catcher to emerge with talented second-year QB Justin Herbert slinging the rock, so perhaps the fifth season will be the charm for Williams, who has never finished a season ranked among the top-30 PPR wideouts.

Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski

Fantasy position rank: 1st with 29.0 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? It’s Gronk — and the position is tight end — so we’re definitely in.

Tom Brady threw 50 passes in the Bucs’ 31-29 season-opening win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, and only WR Chris Godwin (14) was targeted more times than Robert James Gronkowski’s eight. No Tampa pass-catcher was more efficient, though, as the veteran tight end caught all eight for 90 yards and two TDs.

That’s certainly not going to be the case every week — volume or efficiency wise — given the width and depth of the Bucs’ pass-catching corps. But at tight end — where TDs arguably have more relative value than any of the other three main fantasy positions — the 6-foot-6, 270-pound Gronk is a standout among all-time standouts with 102 career regular season and playoff TD grabs.

So with the fantasy position as shallow as ever — and even with Gronkowski having turned 32 in May — those who missed out on the elite TE1s should all be making a waiver claim if he’s available.

Saints TE Juwan Johnson

Fantasy position rank: 5th with 17.1 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Speculatively buying, unless you have one of the elite TE1s.

As aforementioned, the Bucs only threw 20 passes Sunday — and Johnson, the second-year undrafted free agent, was only targeted three times — but he caught all three for 21 yards and, most importantly, two TDs.

Surely that will earn the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Johnson more snaps and looks in a passing offense in need of productive pass-catchers with the WR1 Thomas out. And, sorry for repetition, but those also are in short supply at the shallow fantasy tight end position.

Don’t overspend, but pick up Johnson now if you have a spare bench spot and see what develops.

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.

2021 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Akers (LAR) – This is an exciting development for the second-year player. After starting slowly and then catching fire late in his rookie year, Akers is the clear-cut primary back for the Rams and trades the No. 30 schedule strength for the No. 8. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the needle points upward for the Ram’s backfield.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While normally placing in the Top-5 of running backs each year, Elliott tumbled to No. 9 when the Cowboy’s offense went cold without Dak Prescott. That coincided with facing the No. 31 rushing schedule and Elliott turned in his worst season. Now Dak is back, and the schedule at least rises to only average.

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The biggest problem will be relying on either back unless an injury or coaching move produces more clarity for the Denver backfield. The problem is that the Broncos get the No. 1 rushing schedule for 2021, so both backs may look equally as good. This is a good spot to be if either is removed from the rotation for any reason.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon’s biggest issue has been staying healthy, and working behind an ineffective offensive line for four seasons has not helped that cause. At least the schedule is better, and the offense improved with Joe Burrow last year. The point shift suggests better production, but he’s still facing the No. 10 rushing schedule with durability and blocking questions.

Chris Carson (SEA) – He signed a three-year extension to remain the primary back for the Seahawks but had injury issues last year along with one of the toughest schedules. Carson has been a lock for 1,000 yards and eight to ten touchdowns when healthy, and the schedule becomes a friend for 2021. Rashaad Penny hasn’t been a factor for three years, and Carson takes the look of a solid RB2 addition to a fantasy team.

Worst Swings

Aaron Jones (GB) – The Packers let Jamaal Williams go and promoted A.J. Dillon, so fewer short-yardage rushing touchdowns may go to Jones. And worse yet, he enjoyed the No. 2 rushing schedule in 2020 and ended up as the No. 5 back. But, he incurs one of the most dramatic swings possible, swapping that No. 2 for a No. 31 this year thanks to facing defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Throw in the Rodgers situation and he looks far riskier this season.

 Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones (TB) – Their schedule was only average last year but drops to the worst in the league for rushing in 2021. That won’t make the normal drop in production from a Super Bowl season any easier to avoid. The duo are in a timeshare, and there may be even more hands in the pie with second-year Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard there.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – While the Colts do have a significant rise in rushing  schedule strength, they still face the No. 11-ranked slate of games. The No. 1 schedule helped the rookie Taylor end up as the No. 6 fantasy back. His fortunes are more sensitive to the effectiveness of Carson Wentz and the passing offense.

Better than average: Tight Ends

How did the TEs fare against the same defenses?

The best measurement of a tight end  is how they fared against a defense relative to all others that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the 49ers allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  tight end was recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average tight end that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. The reality is that there are few difference-making tight ends but this measurement shows how well a tight end really performed against his schedule and not just compared to all other tight ends.

With so few players of any consequence, there are no big surprises here. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller naturally take the top spots and George Kittle struggled with injuries in 2020. Logan Thomas, Robert Tonyan, T.J. Hockenson, and Eric Ebron all improved last year. Each turned in at a Top-8 performance in over half of their games and all but Ebron return to the same team with a chance to further their impact to the offense.

Mark Andrews fell in the metric thanks to the decline in touchdown passes from Lamar Jackson. This remains a fantasy position with only a handful of notable players, but Thomas, Tonyan, and Hockenson are expected to only get better. Rob Gronkowski placed well in the metric though would pinball between big games and nearly nothing from week to week. The return to health of O.J. Howard could keep Gronkowski just as inconsistent again this year.

Here are just the No. 1 performances allowed by a defense (a total of 32). The difference between Kelce and all others is profound.

Better than average: Wide Receivers

Which WRs scored the biggest fantasy game on each defense?

The best measurement of a wide receiver is how they fared against a defense relative to all others that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the Rams allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  wideout was recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Also see: QB | RB | TE

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average receiver that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. It is far tougher to produce a Top-8 game as a wideout that any other position since in any given game, usually three or four wide receivers will play for an offense and elite wideouts receive far tougher coverage than any others on the field.

There was a lot of movement in this listing from 2020. Back then, the top BTA players included Michael Thomas, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay. They all declined for various reasons.

Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans remained near the top.

Justin Jefferson’s phenomenal rookie year had him as the No. 5 wideout in this measurement. Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf rocketed up the listing from 2020. Even Brandon Aiyuk quietly put together an impressive rookie year.

These are the wide receivers that scored the most fantasy points allowed by a particular defense.

Again – there are at least three wideouts on every offense with fantasy points each week. Notching even one instance of the best game given up by a defense is impressive enough. Stefon Diggs shattered all expectations in his first season with the Bills.

Better than average: Running Backs

Forget season fantasy points. How well did RBs do when only compared to other RBs versus the same defense?

The best measurement of a running back  is how they fared against a defense relative to all others that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the Steelers allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  running back was recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average running back that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them.

All the same names at the top from last year, other than Alvin Kamara having his every-other big year and David Montgomery vastly improving from a curiously underused rookie year. James Robinson ended up nearly exactly like Leonard Fournette did the year before, so just another twist of the knife for anyone drafting Leonard Fournette last summer and then missing on the scramble to acquire James Robinson.

Jonathan Taylor was the only notable rookie though all of Cam Akers Top-8 games came at the end of 2020. Mark Ingram and Todd Gurley disappeared from this metric after ranking No. 11 and No. 12 last year.

These are the running backs that scored the highest fantasy points that a defense allowed last season.