Category: picks and betting tips

UFC Fight Night 224: Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s featherweight bout on the main card, Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: McCann vs. Stoliarenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: McCann (13-5-0) | Stoliarenko (10-8-2)

McCann is looking to bounce back after a 1st-round submission setback to Erin Blanchfield at UFC 281 in November. Prior to that, “Meatball” had picked up back-to-back KO/TKO wins while winning 3 straight fights overall, including a 1st-round pounding of Hannah Goldy in July 2022.

The Lithuanian-born Stoliarenko was knocked out by Chelsea Chandler last time out in October and is just 1-4 across her last 5 fights. Her lone win during the stretch was a 1st-round submission over Jessica-Rose Clark at UFC 276 in July 2022, showing that she can still be very dangerous.

Stoliarenko has a 4-inch reach advantage, while McCann has a decisive 5.72-to-2.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. In addition, the Briton is slightly more accurate at 53.16% with those strikes, compared to 51.69% for Stoliarenko. McCann also holds a 1.67-to-0.70 takedown average advantage, while Stoliarenko has a solid 1.17 submission average to just 0.52 for the favorite.

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UFC Fight Night 224: McCann vs. Stoliarenko odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:21 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): McCann -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Stoliarenko +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -210 | No +155)

UFC Fight Night 224: McCann vs. Stoliarenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

McCann (-225) will have a home crowd in London backing her, and that should be more than enough to tip the scales in her favor. Even so, risking more than 2 times your potential return in a standalone wager isn’t a great idea. I would consider McCann as part of my ticket as part of a multi-fighter parlay, but not straight up.

If you want to bet on this fight, consider METHOD OF VICTORY 5-WAY: MCCANN BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+155): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid value at plus money.

If you’re a little less adventurous playing OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is worth a look although it’s still quite a bit of juice. I think McCann gets the stoppage, but Stoliarenko should be able to hang in there past the middle of Round 2.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Aspinall (12-3-0) | Tybura (24-7-0)

Aspinall is looking to rebound after a 15-second knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes in the main event in July 2022. That quick defeat was his first at the UFC level after 5 consecutive stoppage victories.

Aspinall has never been to past the 3:59 mark of the 2nd round in any of his 15 fights as a professional, and only 1 of his 6 fights at the UFC level has made it out of the opening round.

Tybura takes the walk with a pair of decision victories over Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov in his last 2 fights. He is 7-1 across the previous 8 outings, and his lone loss was via unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov at UFC 267 in Oct. 2021.

The Polish-born fighter hasn’t been dropped since consecutive KO/TKO losses in 2019 against Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Aspinall easily outpaces Tybura in significant strikes landed per minute at 7.41-to-3.55 and is much more accurate, landing 67.40% of those strikes to 59.38% for “Tybur”. The Brit is much better in the ground game too, posting an impressive 4.00 takedown average, with 100% accuracy, and a solid 2.00 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Tybura +365 (bet $100 to win $365)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +700 | No -2000)

UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Betting Aspinall (-500) straight up is not a recommended strategy, as he will cost you 5 times your potential return. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward.

Instead, look to the round betting section instead. The books are expecting a quick finish, and I am, too. ROUND BETTING: ASPINALL IN ROUND 1 (-115) is a solid option, as he’ll be fired up fighting in front of the home crowd and Tybura will be eating a lot of punches early.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-2000): Fight to go the distance? is perhaps one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) is a little on the expensive side, but worth playing if you are a little on the conservative side. However, I like ROUND AND METHOD OF VICTORY: ASPINALL BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+100) a little better at even money.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s bantamweight bout in the main event, Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Holm (15-6-0) | Bueno Silva (10-2-1)

Holm is the former title holder in the division after famously dropping Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in 2015. However, she failed to defend her title in a loss to Miesha Tate at UFC 195 in 2016 and has since had 3 shots at the title and lost each of them. She is still a dominant force in the division, and “The Preacher’s Daughter” has managed wins in 3 of the past 4 bouts, all via Unanimous Decision.

The 41-year-old veteran has gone to the judges in 6 of the past 7 fights overall, with the lone stoppage coming in a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Amanda Nunes for the title at UFC 239 in July 2019.

The southpaw Holm has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, and she has a 0.92-to-0.38 takedown average advantage. Bueno Silva has managed 4.20 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.17 for Holm. MBS is also much more accurate, posting a 62.23% significant strike accuracy percentage to just 49.51% for Holm.

The 31-year-old Brazilian fighter has won 3 straight fights, including submission wins in each of the past 2 bouts against Lina Lansberg and Stephanie Egger.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Holm -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Bueno Silva +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -210 | Under +155)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +140)

UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The younger BUENO SILVA (+145) is a strong value as a moderate underdog. While Holm has won 3 of her last 4 fights, she suffered a split-decision fight against Ketlen Vieira in May 2022.

While Holm has the reach advantage, Bueno Silva is quicker and is a punching machine. MBS has won 3 straight fights, including 2 straight submission victories.

Over/Under (O/U)

The one thing Holm seems to be able to do is avoid the knockout. Win or lose, the former champ’s bouts seem to involve the judges more often than not.

However, Yes (-185): Will the fight go the distance? is still a little expensive for my blood. Over 4.5 Rounds (-210) is an even worse value.

Instead, consider BUENO SILVA (+400) ON POINTS in the round betting, if you’re a little more on the adventurous side.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Jack Della Maddalena and Bassil Hafez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Maddalena vs. Hafez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Della Maddalena (14-2-0) | Hafez (8-3-1)

Della Maddalena heads to the octagon with 4 victories in 4 tries since making his UFC debut in January 2022, all of which have been via 1st round stoppages. That includes a submission victory over Randy Brown at 2:13 of the opening round at UFC 284 in February.

The 26-year-old has posted an impressive 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute while posting a 51.55% significant strike accuracy percentage. He also has a 0.57 submission average.

Hafez makes his UFC debut at 31 years old. He previously fought at Fury FC, posting a 3rd-round knockout of Evan Cutts last time out at Fury FC 75 in February. The welterweight has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 outings.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Della Maddalena vs. Hafez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Della Maddalena -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Hafez +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +160 | Under -210)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)

UFC Fight Night 224: Della Maddalena vs. Hafez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The veteran Della Maddalena (-550) will cost you 5 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive, even as part of a multi-fighter parlay.

The Aussie has won 3 of his 4 fights via KO/TKO in the 1st round since making his UFC debut. However, taking Della Maddalena by KO/TKO or DQ (-275) is still just too steep of a price. Instead, consider DELLA MADDALENA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (-120) for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Will the fight go the distance? No (-750) will cost you 7 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s obviously too expensive too. Under 1.5 Rounds (-210) will also cost you more than 2 times your return. It’s probably best to just AVOID, and focus on the method of victory.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s featherweight bout on the main card, Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Dumont (9-2-0) | Chandler (5-1-0)

Dumont, a.k.a. “The Immortal”, enters the octagon with 2 straight unanimous-decision victories and 5 wins in her last 6 fights overall. Each of her past 6 bouts has gone the distance since she was knocked out in the 1st round by Megan Anderson in her UFC debut on Feb. 29, 2020.

Chandler won her UFC debut last time out on Oct. 1, 2022, dropping Julija Stoliarenko via KO/TKO in the 1st round. The 32-year-old southpaw has won 2 of her 6 pro bouts by way of KO/TKO and has 1 submission victory. She is 2-1 when the fight goes the distance and is left to the judges.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dumont -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Chandler +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The battle-tested DUMONT (-145) is the better play, as Chandler will be facing her most experienced opponent, by far.

The Team Suoto fight knows how to do enough to impress the judges, and Saturday night should be no different. She enters with back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Karol Rosa and Danyelle Wolf and should make it 3 straight after doing enough to get by Chandler.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance?, and Over 2.5 Rounds (-250), are just too expensive, you can still make money on the result.

Look to the method of victory, and play DUMONT BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) on the 7-way line at even money for a much better value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 290 odds and lines between Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Volkanovski (25-2-0) | Rodriguez (16-3-0)

Volkanovski, a.k.a. “Alexander The Great,” puts his featherweight strap on the line against Rodriguez. Last time out, Volkanovski was stopped by Islam Makhachev, but that was a title bout in the lightweight division as the Aussie was looking to become a 2-division champ.

The flirtation at lightweight didn’t pan out, but he acquitted himself well in a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 284. He has successfully defended his featherweight belt 4 times since snatching it from Max Holloway via unanimous decision at UFC 245 in 2019.

Going the distance has been the theme for Volkanovski, as 6 of his past 7 fights have gone to the judges, with just a KO/TKO at UFC 273 in Round 4 against Chan Sung Jung as the lone stoppage during the impressive run.

Rodriguez won the interim featherweight belt against Josh Emmett at UFC 284, posting a submission win in Round 2. Rodriguez has gone the distance in just 2 of his past 8 UFC bouts, a loss to Holloway and a win over Jeremy Stephens in Oct. 2019.

He made quick work of Brian Ortega in the main event in mid-July, and then he had the submission of Emmett. Facing Volkanovski is a completely different animal, although don’t look for Rodriguez to go quietly into the night. He has a non-stop motor and this is a dangerous spot for the champ.

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UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:39 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Volkanovski -345 (bet $345 to win $100) | Rodriguez +265 (bet $100 to win $265)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Can you imagine the non-stop parties south of the border if Brandon Moreno and Rodriguez (+260) were both able to pick up championship bout wins at UFC 290?

Well, you’ll just have to imagine it, because it isn’t going to come true. Picking against Volkanovski (-350) at the featherweight division is not a recommended betting strategy, although picking him and risking 3 1/2 times your potential return is not recommended, either.

Instead, let’s look at the method of victory. VOLKANOVSKI ON POINTS (+125) is the way to go as he has gone the distance in 6 of his past 7 fights. The champ holds a 6.35-to-4.78 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate with his punches at 59.12% compared to 51.49% for Rodriguez.

Volkanovski also tends to wow the judges with his takedowns, posting a 1.52 TD average and 34.33% TD accuracy percentage.

As long as Alexander the Great can avoid taking calf damage from Rodriguez’s kicks — some of the most devastating in the division — the champ should retain his belt.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at even money based on Volkanovski’s recent spate of distance fights.

This has Fight of the Night potential and should be an absolute war. Rodriguez will likely want to avoid going to the canvas, although he does have a slight submission average advantage.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 290: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 290 odds and lines between Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Moreno (21-6-2) | Pantoja (25-5-0)

The 29-year-old Moreno puts his flyweight strap on the line against the 33-year-old Pantoja. The Mexican-born Moreno lost the strap before when he dropped a unanimous decision against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 270 in January 2022 but took the strap back from Kai Kara-France at UFC 277 just a few months later in July.

Moreno then defended the belt successfully in the 4rth installment of his rivalry against Figueiredo last time out at UFC 283 in January, winning via TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage after 3 rounds.

These fighters met previously on May 19, 2018, in a UFC Fight Night prelim bout in Santiago, Chile, with Pantoja winning via unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27).

Pantoja comes in on a 3-bout win streak since losing to Askar Askarov in mid-July 2020. He topped Manel Kape via unanimous decision in February 2021, and then he has recorded consecutive submission victories over Brandon Royval (August 2021) and Alex Perez (July 2022).

Moreno has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, while Pantoja has a slight 4.25-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Pantoja is also a little more accurate with his strikes at 52.95%. The arrow is in Moreno’s favor as far as takedowns go as he holds a 1.80-to-1.37 takedown average advantage while posting a 45.45% mark to 40.74% for the challenger.

On submission average, the Brazilian-born Pantoja has a 1.25 average, while Moreno checks in at 0.58.

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UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Moreno -215 (bet $215 to win $100) | Pantoja +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -140)

UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

While it has been over 5 calendar years since these fighters last met, it’s hard to ignore the fact PANTOJA (+175) won the first bout.

The Brazilian slept Perez in 91 seconds last time out at UFC 277, and he is looking to secure his first strap since becoming the champ at RFA 189 in Sept. 2014, when he stopped Matt Manzanares with a rear-naked choke.

Moreno is certainly beatable, and Pantoja can win in a number of ways. I don’t think we get a knockout here, but a submission is certainly possible. However, I believe that we’ll see several takedowns from both fighters and that the judges will determine a winner.

As such, PANTOJA ON POINTS (+400) is attractive for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 4 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, especially if you aren’t quite sold on a Pantoja victory but you want a little action.

We’ve seen Moreno go the distance in 7 of his past 11 fights at the UFC level, and while Pantoja has had a pair of stoppages in his past 2 outings, he went the distance in his 2 previous fights and 3 of his last 6 bouts.

Over 3.5 Rounds (-190) is a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 290: Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 290 odds and lines between Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Whittaker vs. Du Plessis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Whittaker (25-6-0) | Du Plessis (19-2-0)

The former title holder Whittaker suffered a title bout loss against Israel Adesanya at UFC 271 in early February 2022. He bounced back with a unanimous-decision win over Marvin Vettori in early September in a fight night bout. “The Reaper” has gone the distance in 5 straight fights, and 7 of the past 8 overall, dating back to July 2017.

Du Plessis is a perfect 5-for-5 since arriving at the UFC in Oct. 2020, including stoppage victories against Darren Till via submission at UFC 282 in December and a win over Derek Brunson by way of 2nd-round KO/TKO at UFC 285 in March.

The South African fighter holds a 2.5-inch reach advantage and has a 6.72-to-4.48 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. In addition, Du Plessis has a 57.14% significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 45.37% for Whittaker. Du Plessis also has better numbers on the ground, too. However, Whittaker has much more experience and has fought the cream of the crop in the division.

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UFC 290: Whittaker vs. Du Plessis odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:12 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Whittaker -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Du Plessis +305 (bet $100 to win $305)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +165 | No -225)

UFC 290: Whittaker vs. Du Plessis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

While Du Plessis (+305) is a tempting play for the chance to more than triple up, the time isn’t quite now. Whittaker is still at, or near, the top of his game. As long as the fighter in front of him isn’t Adesanya, Whittaker is middleweight gold.

However, you can’t risk nearly 4 times on the 2-way line with him. Instead, let’s get a little more creative.

While I don’t think Du Plessis springs the upset, he will make “The Reaper” work for it. Whittaker is used to it as he has gone the distance in each of his past 5 fights, winning 4 by unanimous decision. Take WHITTAKER BY DECISION (+200) for the chance to double up.

Over/Under (O/U)

As a result of playing Whittaker by decision, you will want to play OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) if you’re not quite as adventurous. If you are a little more daring, YES (+165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play.

Du Plessis is going to make him work, as he is the better grappler. If he can get it to the canvas early, he has a chance to make this one go long into the night.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 290: Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 290 odds and lines between Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

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In a lightweight bout on the main card, Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Turner (13-6-0) | Hooker (22-12-0)

Turner looks to bounce back after suffering a split-decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 285 in early March. That setback stopped a 5-bout win streak for “The Tarantula” that dated back to February 2020. He also saw his streak of 5 straight stoppages come to an end, as he left the decision in the hands of the judges for the first time since a loss at UFC 236 in April 2019.

Hooked halted a 2-bout losing skid with a 2nd-round KO/TKO over Claudio Puelles at UFC 281 in November. He is still just 2-4 across his previous 6 fights. Like Turner, he hasn’t needed to involve the judges much, suffering 3 of those losses in the 1st round and earning the win in the 2nd round last time out.

The southpaw Turner is not only 5 years younger than the Kiwi veteran, but he has a 2-inch reach advantage, too. In addition, Turner holds a 5.63-to-4.83 significant strikes landed per minute, although Hooker is slightly more accurate at 54.57% to 51.16% for the favorite.

Both fighters have very similar takedown average numbers, although Turner is much more accurate with a 66.67% takedown average compared to just 36.67% for Hooker. Turner also sports a solid 1.55 submission average to just 0.31 for Hooker.

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UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Turner -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Hooker +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +200 | No -300)

UFC 290: Turner vs. Hooker picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Turner (-275) has been far more consistent lately than Hooker. The southpaw from Team Carlson Gracie Riverside did suffer the loss against Gamrot last time out, but he was on a 5-bout win streak prior to that setback. However, you cannot risk nearly 3 times your potential return on Turner.

Hooker (+225) has picked up just 2 victories in the past 6 fights. While the losses came against the who’s who of the weight class, including setbacks to Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier, a loss is still a loss. Turner is fighting with a lot of confidence and Hooker just can’t be trusted right now.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Instead of playing the 2-way line, let’s get a little more specific. I like Turner’s work on the mat, and he has a 1.55 submission average. Hooker tapped out against Islam Makhachev at UFC 267, and that makes TURNER BY SUBMISSION (+225) a solid value.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, the FIGHT FINISH BY SUBMISSION (+200) can help you double up regardless of who wins.

As far as the Over/Under on rounds, Hooker hasn’t been out of the first round, win or lose, in 3 of his last 5 fights. Turner has seen 3 of his past 4 bouts end prior to the midway point of Round 2. As a result, UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even money is a strong play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 48: Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 48 odds and lines between Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Max Griffin and Michael Morales meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Griffin (19-9-0) | Morales (14-0-0)

Griffin has been involved in a pair of split-decision results in his past 2 fights, winning against Tim Means last time out in late October and losing to Neil Magny in late March 2022. He has won 4 of the past 5 fights overall, with his past 3 outings going the distance.

Morales is 2-for-2 since making his debut at UFC 270 in January 2022, and each of the victories has been via KO/TKO. He dropped Trevin Giles at UFC 270 in the 1st round and took care of business against Adam Fugitt at UFC 277 in the 3rd round.

Morales has a 1-inch height advantage and a 3-inch reach advantage. He is also 13 years younger than his counterpart.

Morales also holds a 5.36-to-4.23 significant strikes landed advantage and lands them at a 56.64% clip. He also has a slight takedown average advantage at 1.98-to-1.60, although Griffin is more accurate at 50.0% on takedowns.

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UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Griffin +215 (bet $100 to win $215) | Morales -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -134 | Under +104)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -116)

UFC on ESPN 48: Griffin vs. Morales picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Morales (-260) will cost you more than 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward. There is no value in playing such heavy favorites for a singular wager, and including Morales in a multi-fighter parlay also sucks the value out of a parlay ticket.

Let’s look to the method of victory instead. He has managed 11 KO/TKO victories in 14 career professional bouts — all wins — and has 1 victory via submission. Just 2 of his fights have involved the judges for a decision, and that has happened just once since Dec. 2018.

I like MORALES BY KO/TKO (+195) for a chance to nearly double up. In addition, you can play a Method & Round combo. Roll with MORALES BY KO/TKO & ROUND 1 (+500) and MORALES BY KO/TKO & ROUND 2 (+750) in that category. If he wins in Rounds 1 or 2 via knockout, you will obviously lose one of the ends, but you’ll still be well ahead, too.

There is a risk here, as Griffin hasn’t been knocked out since his debut at UFC 202 against Colby Covington in Aug. 2016. But Morales has a 3-inch reach advantage and will be able to use that to his advantage, picking and choosing spots to move in and out, while keeping Griffin at a distance when needed.

Over/Under (O/U)

WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? NO (-116) is the way to go. Morales doesn’t like to leave it up to the judges to decide a winner. While Griffin has ended up going the distance in 3 straight outings, that will not be the case here.

For a better value, I like UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+104) at plus money.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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