In a featherweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Records: Volkanovski (25-2-0) | Rodriguez (16-3-0)
Volkanovski, a.k.a. “Alexander The Great,” puts his featherweight strap on the line against Rodriguez. Last time out, Volkanovski was stopped by Islam Makhachev, but that was a title bout in the lightweight division as the Aussie was looking to become a 2-division champ.
The flirtation at lightweight didn’t pan out, but he acquitted himself well in a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 284. He has successfully defended his featherweight belt 4 times since snatching it from Max Holloway via unanimous decision at UFC 245 in 2019.
Going the distance has been the theme for Volkanovski, as 6 of his past 7 fights have gone to the judges, with just a KO/TKO at UFC 273 in Round 4 against Chan Sung Jung as the lone stoppage during the impressive run.
Rodriguez won the interim featherweight belt against Josh Emmett at UFC 284, posting a submission win in Round 2. Rodriguez has gone the distance in just 2 of his past 8 UFC bouts, a loss to Holloway and a win over Jeremy Stephens in Oct. 2019.
He made quick work of Brian Ortega in the main event in mid-July, and then he had the submission of Emmett. Facing Volkanovski is a completely different animal, although don’t look for Rodriguez to go quietly into the night. He has a non-stop motor and this is a dangerous spot for the champ.
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UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:39 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Volkanovski -345 (bet $345 to win $100) | Rodriguez +265 (bet $100 to win $265)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Can you imagine the non-stop parties south of the border if Brandon Moreno and Rodriguez (+260) were both able to pick up championship bout wins at UFC 290?
Well, you’ll just have to imagine it, because it isn’t going to come true. Picking against Volkanovski (-350) at the featherweight division is not a recommended betting strategy, although picking him and risking 3 1/2 times your potential return is not recommended, either.
Instead, let’s look at the method of victory. VOLKANOVSKI ON POINTS (+125) is the way to go as he has gone the distance in 6 of his past 7 fights. The champ holds a 6.35-to-4.78 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate with his punches at 59.12% compared to 51.49% for Rodriguez.
Volkanovski also tends to wow the judges with his takedowns, posting a 1.52 TD average and 34.33% TD accuracy percentage.
As long as Alexander the Great can avoid taking calf damage from Rodriguez’s kicks — some of the most devastating in the division — the champ should retain his belt.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look at even money based on Volkanovski’s recent spate of distance fights.
This has Fight of the Night potential and should be an absolute war. Rodriguez will likely want to avoid going to the canvas, although he does have a slight submission average advantage.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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