In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
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Records: Aspinall (12-3-0) | Tybura (24-7-0)
Aspinall is looking to rebound after a 15-second knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes in the main event in July 2022. That quick defeat was his first at the UFC level after 5 consecutive stoppage victories.
Aspinall has never been to past the 3:59 mark of the 2nd round in any of his 15 fights as a professional, and only 1 of his 6 fights at the UFC level has made it out of the opening round.
Tybura takes the walk with a pair of decision victories over Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov in his last 2 fights. He is 7-1 across the previous 8 outings, and his lone loss was via unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov at UFC 267 in Oct. 2021.
The Polish-born fighter hasn’t been dropped since consecutive KO/TKO losses in 2019 against Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Aspinall easily outpaces Tybura in significant strikes landed per minute at 7.41-to-3.55 and is much more accurate, landing 67.40% of those strikes to 59.38% for “Tybur”. The Brit is much better in the ground game too, posting an impressive 4.00 takedown average, with 100% accuracy, and a solid 2.00 submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Tybura +365 (bet $100 to win $365)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +700 | No -2000)
UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Betting Aspinall (-500) straight up is not a recommended strategy, as he will cost you 5 times your potential return. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward.
Instead, look to the round betting section instead. The books are expecting a quick finish, and I am, too. ROUND BETTING: ASPINALL IN ROUND 1 (-115) is a solid option, as he’ll be fired up fighting in front of the home crowd and Tybura will be eating a lot of punches early.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-2000): Fight to go the distance? is perhaps one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen.
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) is a little on the expensive side, but worth playing if you are a little on the conservative side. However, I like ROUND AND METHOD OF VICTORY: ASPINALL BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+100) a little better at even money.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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