It’s here! The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings meet tonight in one of the most significant regular-season games in franchise history for Detroit.
So much is on the line. The NFC North title. The No. 1 seed in the NFC for the postseason and the associated home-field advantage. A playoff bye and a more favorable (in theory) divisional-round matchup for the winner’s first postseason game.
As I drink the first cup of Sunday morning coffee, I’ve got quite a few thoughts about this Week 18 finale swirling in my head. Foremost is that it’s going to be a long, angst-ridden wait to tonight’s prime-time kickoff in Ford Field. “Waiting all day for Sunday night,” indeed…
Why I think the Lions will win
One of the biggest reasons is the venue. Ford Field figures to be insanely loud in favor of the Lions, with palpable energy from a fan base that understands how they can help their beloved team prevail. Dan Campbell’s team does a good job of not getting uptight with the pressure and at feeding off the fan energy, too.
That’s the baseline for the positivity. But there are many, many more reasons to really like the Lions to win this game. Most of them are on the offensive side of the ball for Detroit.
It starts with Jared Goff. The master of play-action and working the intermediate range in the middle of the field goes up against a defense that concedes both of those by schematic design. Goff has carved up Brian Flores’ defenses in all three meetings between Detroit and Minnesota (all won by the Lions):
Week 7 – 22-for-25, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 0 giveaways, QB Rating of 140.0
2023 Week 16 – 30-of-40, 257 yards, 1 TD, 0 giveaways, QB Rating 99.7
2023 Week 18 – 23-of-32, 320 yards, 2 TDs, 0 giveaways QB Rating 124.5
The Vikings rank near the top in blitzing at 38 percent. They do so quite creatively, with a varied approach that thrives on creating confusion and delay in the quarterback. But Goff has been very sharp in understanding where his hot reads are, and the Lions offensive line and tight ends/running backs have been effective at pre-snap diagnosis and staying disciplined in pass protection.
This graphic from FOX Sports sums it up nicely:
Blitzing tends to create considerable opportunities for electrifying Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown after the catch. St. Brown’s three games against Flores: 27 catches on 32 targets, 362 yards, 4 TDs.
As long as Goff can get the ball out, the Lions carry a massive advantage against Minnesota’s defense. Goff will have to be up to his usual standards, but if that’s not the case, then this probably isn’t going to be much fun, regardless.
Defensively, getting Alex Anzalone back can only help the Lions pass coverage. Anything No. 34 can offer is a bonus for a defense that has trotted out Ezekiel Turner, Kwon Alexander and Jamal Adams in Anzalone’s coverage LB role. All three quickly proved why they were still available in December. Ben Niemann tackles well and has closing speed but lacks Anzalone’s instincts and cross-field speed in coverage.
Getting a couple of takeaways in the win over San Francisco proved huge. Kerby Joseph’s first pick in the game was Detroit’s first in six weeks, and that void was cataclysmic for the Lions defense. Minnesota has a high-powered passing offense, but they are one that will take chances being aggressive. Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch and Amik Robertson (3 PDs and a forced fumble in 2 starts at outside CB) are all capable of making Sam Darnold (12 INTs on the season) pay for not being precise.
Minnesota’s offense ranks near the bottom in yards per carry on the ground (4.0, 29th), which can play into the Vikings pressing and potentially putting the ball up for grabs. Aaron Jones found a lot of success (93 yards on 14 carries) in the first meeting, however, so this is one of those toss-up battles.
The Lions also have a major advantage in the punting battle. Don’t snicker at that, either. Pro Bowler Jack Fox has a shot at setting the NFL record for best net punting average for a season. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Ryan Wright is a bottom-5 punter in both gross and net yards, ranking 27th in both.
Return man Kalif Raymond is back from injured reserve to try and still win the league’s punt return yardage crown; Raymond has 390 and the leader (Denver’s Marvin Mims) is only 18 yards ahead of him despite Kalif missing five games. One-time Lion Brandon Powell is Minnesota’s punt returner, and he’s dead last in yards per return (7.2) amongst regular returners. Read as: there’s a very real opportunity for the Lions to pick up a lot of field position in the punt game — should either Fox or Wright have to punt.
What concerns me about the Vikings
Unfortunately, there’s quite a bit here, too. Minnesota is 14-2 and while they haven’t blown many teams away, they’re a top 10 team on both offense and defense. They also know how to win close games, with nine wins (and a loss to the Lions) in 1-possession finals. Call it lucky or flukishly unsustainable if you must, but they’re really good in those situations and comfortable playing under pressure. I don’t think that changes in Detroit.
Sam Darnold is having the kind of year for Minnesota that Goff did in 2023 for Detroit, reminding everyone why he was once a No. 2 overall draft pick. Statistically, Darnold and Goff have very similar numbers in 2024. Goff is a touch more accurate (71.7 to 68.1 completion percentage) and Darnold takes more sacks (46 to 29), but they’re having comparable overall seasons.
Darnold has great weapons to work with. Justin Jefferson is as good as any receiver in the league, and he’s quickly developed great chemistry with Darnold. He’s the kind of receiver who can make Detroit really miss top outside CB Carlton Davis, who is sidelined with a broken jaw. While Robertson has stepped up nicely, he gives up a lot of size to Jefferson. Rookie CB Terrion Arnold remains prone to rookie mistakes, and that’s not something Detroit can afford.
Officiating could come into play here. Arnold has cleaned up his handsy-ness in coverage, but (with apologies to Josh Allen) there isn’t a better QB at throwing passes that draw defensive pass interference than Darnold.
The Vikings lead the league with 328 yards gained via DPI infractions. The Lions? One drawn DPI for 5 yards all season. A lot of that is about style of passing and passer. If Arnold gets grabby against Jefferson or Jordan Addison, the Vikings have proven they’ll coax those flags to their advantage. Sunday night’s officiating crew throws more flags for DPI than any other, too.
Minnesota has one of the best first-quarter offenses, ranking second in points in the opening stanza. That makes it tougher for the Lions to get out to a lead and eliminate part of the opposing playbook because the enemy offense is busy playing catch-up. Kevin O’Connell has proven to be a very adept game manager and situational play-caller, so that might not matter against Minnesota. They haven’t really abandoned the run in prior deficits, it’s worth noting. Regardless, it’s not going to be easy for the Lions (14th in 1st quarter scoring) to establish an early lead.
The Vikings do have capable pass rushers without blitzing, when they choose to just roll four at the QB. Jonathan Greenard bagged a sack in the last outing and gave left tackle Taylor Decker problems all afternoon. In fact, it was the worst pass protection game in Decker’s entire career, according to PFF grades.
Minnesota uses OLB Andrew Van Ginkel as a weapon very effectively, rushing him from all over the formation. Van Ginkel doesn’t get enough national attention for how smoothly he avoids blocks and how quickly he can strike. Lions fans might remember that Van Ginkel got to Goff for two sacks and five QB hits in the first meeting. With blitz-happy Ivan Pace at ILB mixed in, the Vikings do have some wrecking balls that can give even the Lions great OL some issues. On top of that, the Lions line has not been at its peak recently; even All-Pro RT Penei Sewell has not played his best football in the last month or so in pass protection. It’s a concern.
Final score prediction
Should be a great game. The Vikings are a very good team. The Lions are just a little bit better and they believe it, too.
Lions 34, Vikings 30
