Which players may have added financial incentive this season?
While simply entering a contract year is not a guarantee of increased fantasy football production, us gamers look to unearth any extra motivation that may help real-life players put put our fake squads over the top.
The key when evaluating such data is to treat it as another piece of the puzzle and not get too caught up in this extra info. The salary cap increased as usual this year after a dip during the height of the pandemic. We’ve seen a fair amount of one-year deals again, in addition to the usual expiring long-term pacts, creating a deep class of free agents at wide receiver, and running back shows a few promising names as well.
Notes: All players listed below will be unrestricted and restricted free agents as of March 2025, focusing on those who have made a dent in fantasy in recent years or could be in position to matter. The listed age reflects how old the player will be upon the opening free agency. The list focuses on players potential fantasy relevance.
Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?
It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recent industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.
The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t have to select kickers or defensive teams), here are a few general observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.
Drafting in the middle of Round 1 wasn’t a detriment. The placement afforded the ability to build either two strong running backs, a blend of prominent RBs and receivers, or loading up on a pair of wideouts. Flexibility is key, and it’s tough to go wrong picking fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh in 2024.
It’s not too often, even in an experts league, no quarterbacks come off the board in the first three rounds. Personally, I love to see it, and that’s how gamers should draft … in an ideal world. I suspect the delay in addressing the position is a byproduct of gamers being burned by the rash of QB injuries in 2023.
Eight of the first 24 picks were running backs in this PPR format, which isn’t a huge surprise, but the notable takeaway here is this draft went all the way until the 32nd pick before a different position came off the board.
Six of the 19 total quarterbacks who were drafted came in Rounds 4 and 5 alone, which shows the ability to wait on the position if you don’t buy into a top-heavy position.
Five TEs going in the first six rounds is normal, though the eight who went over the following four rounds are mostly interchangeable. Much like with quarterback, gamers should make a predraft decision about whether they prefer to invest early or wait, and a good deal of these trends are due to the RB and WR selection spree atop the draft.
The positional breakdown is as follows: 19 QBs, 60 RBs, 79 WRs, and 18 TEs.
Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:
We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: I considered Ja’Marr Chase, but Robinson has RB1 overall upside and will anchor my roster. The do-all Texas product no longer will be hampered by the silly utilization games played by former head coach Arthur Smith.
WR Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans: I’m banking on one last big season from the well-seasoned veteran with a final huge payday at stake. Houston didn’t acquire him to be a decoy. This loaded offense can support multiple top-flight fantasy targets.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: If he can stay healthy, Jacobs has RB1 written all over him in Green Bay. The Packers paid a hefty sum for his services, and the versatile veteran will command the lion’s share of this backfield’s touches.
WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns: There’s no question that I am skeptical about Cooper staying healthy and Deshaun Watson rebounding, but the only real-life WR1 remaining I considered was Zay Flowers. My strong RB corps leaves me comfortable with Cooper as my WR2.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: I wasn’t inclined to land a QB here, but the value of Hurts in Round 5 was far too tantalizing to ignore. Between a stacked receiving corps and his rushing talents, Hurts will challenge for QB1 overall.
RB Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders: I’m comfortable with Ekeler as a third back, and he has upside in PPR since Brian Robinson Jr. is more of a two-downer. Being reasonable, the former Charger is probably a matchup play instead of a lock.
WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs: As my third receiver, Hollywood catching passes from Patrick Mahomes is exciting and will make up for a lack of volume. Rashee Rice could miss games — perhaps the entire year — giving Brown serious upside.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans: Despite crossing my fingers in hopes of Christian Watson coming back to me, Nuk is a WR4 with viable weekly lineup consideration – a nice consolation. I’m expecting enough work to go around in this revamped offense.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings: I gambled on Jake Ferguson lasting, missing out by a few picks. While Hockenson might rest early, rookie QBs tend to lean on TEs, and this selection had a playoff push in mind.
RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons: Expecting a lesser role than last year’s 209 utilizations, the sole purpose here was to insure my Round 1 selection of Bijan Robinson. Nothing more, nothing less.
TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: T.J. Hockenson was a strategic gamble two rounds ago, and Schultz will be a stop-gap if he misses action as well as an insurance policy should the former Detroit Lion not regain form in 2024.
WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons: A late-round flier who could rebound after falling on hard times the last two years, Mooney gets a QB upgrade and a friendlier system. He has even more value if TE Kyle Pitts doesn’t pan out again.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rookie RBs who are an injury away from a No. 1 role always enter my late-round draft plans. Irving even could muster enough action for a fill-in role if Tampa chooses to scale back Rachaad White‘s workload.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Even though the retooled receiving corps isn’t as appealing on paper, volume alone puts Lawrence into the top-12 conversation. A likely QB1 as my backup in Round 14? Sign me up!
Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Bonus draft recap!
As part of the magazine mock draft participation agreement, we also took part in a non-PPR version. Here’s my team review for that one:
1) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: I briefly considered Saquon Barkley, but Taylor’s fantasy scoring and TD upside is greater in non-PPR. There’s top-3 potential from the former rushing champ.
2) RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: I was hoping for Derrick Henry here, but Jacobs is a quality consolation prize. He should threaten RB1 status as my No. 2 in a Green Bay offense that will ride its new bell cow.
3) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: While he’s not a value buy this year, and regression is a real risk, double-digit TD potential remains high. Evans is a so-so WR1.
4) QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: I really wanted Cooper Kupp here, but Hurts’ rushing TD upside was far too tempting in non-PPR. This is much earlier than I tend to draft a QB, and the scoring system made the difference here.
5) WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers: He’s one of my favorites for a true breakout season, and I’ll be surprised Pickens doesn’t finish as a borderline WR1. There’s some concern with Russell Wilson and Arthur Smith, however, but talent usually wins out.
6) RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals: I’m higher on him than most, but there’s legit 10-TD potential in sight as my third back. Moss has flashed starting-caliber ability at times in his career, and he now gets a chance to run away with the gig.
7) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: Was this a reach? Maybe. If Pitts cannot ascend in 2024, all hope is lost for his future. I’m optimistic that Kirk Cousins and a better offensive system will work wonders.
8) WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: Denver is lacking receiving options, and rookie QB Bo Nix has the collegiate experience to hit the ground running. He should be good for WR3 or flex utility more often than not.
9) WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: There’s tremendous upside in Watson if the hammy can hold up for more than 30 minutes. That said, he could get lost in the mix some weeks if the deep receiving corps plays to its potential.
10) RB Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: We saw enough from the former as a rookie to suggest he’ll be involved in this new offense. As my RB4, Charbonnet is a decent flier for RB2 returns if Kenneth Walker goes down.
11) WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: Let’s face it, Johnston was abysmal in 2023, but LA needs a WR to step up, and why not him? He has the QB and offensive line to create damage with limited targets.
12) QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Aside from a bye week, Goff probably won’t see my lineup, but he’s awesome insurance for Hurts.
13) TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints: Mike Gesicki was a consideration, but Johnson has a clearer path to scoring fantasy points. If Pitts is solid, Johnson won’t crack my lineup often anyway.
Time to throw away those long-held beliefs about certain teams that should offer a vastly difference offensive product for 2024.
The natural tendency is to expect a player’s fantasy value to repeat the next year. It’s certainly the most recent data to consider, and that is why fantasy drafts look a lot like the results from the previous season.
Where fantasy value remains less obvious is when a player’s situation changes around him. How he fits into a offensive scheme and combines with his teammates have a great bearing on his success – or lack of it.
Let’s take a look at the three NFL teams that will clash with the conventional wisdom from last year and deserve a longer look heading into 2024.
Where they come from: The three last years were under HC Arthur Smith who also called plays. He was the Titans offensive coordinator for the two previous seasons (2019-2020). During his final season there was when Derrick Henry rushed for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. His mark in Atlanta was that they never relied heavily on any player, despite selecting the top running back, wideout, and tight end from their respective draft years.
After Matt Ryan left in 2022, the last two seasons saw the Falcons remain Bottom-5 in passing and not manage more than 17 passing touchdowns either year. The Falcons ranked in the Top-2 in rushing attempts over that span though divided up the carries and even showed favor to Cordarrelle Patterson who was an aging and marginal wide receiver turned running back. Last year, the Falcons ranked No. 32 – dead last – in every wide receiver statistic and included only four scores by the position.
The Falcons did rank No. 1 in receiving yards for tight ends (1,380) and No. 5 in completions (114) to the position. But that came with a near-even split between Kyle Pitts (53-667-3) and Jonnu Smith (50-582-3). The best running back from the draft class was Bijan Robinson who was limited to only 214 carries, while Tyler Allgeier handled 186. While HC Arthur Smith had access to an elite tight end, wide receiver, and running back, he insisted on sharing the load to the great dismay of the fantasy community (and arguably the Atlanta fanbase after posting three straight 7-10 records).
Bottom line – they ran a ton but wouldn’t rely heavily on the uber-talented Robinson, threw a lot to tight ends but only half went to the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history, and Drake London still hasn’t topped 910 yards after two seasons despite being the 1.08 pick of 2022 as the top wideout. The offensive scheme never placed any of the offensive players in a position where elite stats were possible.
2024 changes: There are a few player differences this year, and a dramatic shift from the Falcons that we’ve known for the last three seasons. The Falcons parted ways with HC Arthur Smith and brought in Raheem Morris, who had been the defensive coordinator for the Rams. He brings a very accomplished resume that is limited to defensive coaching.
Zac Robinson was tabbed as the offensive coordinator after entering the coaching ranks in 2019 with the Rams, where he coached the quarterbacks and wide receivers for the last five seasons. He learned under HC Sean McVay and been involved exclusively with the passing offense. While mostly an unknown as a coordinator, he comes over with experience in exactly what the weakness that the Falcons had. And Atlanta brought in a new quarterback and four veteran wide receivers while signing two undrafted rookies. This will be a new passing offense by every measure.
Players with new positive situations
RB Bijan Robinson – It is inconceivable that the new offense will split carries between Robinson and Allgeier, unlike 2023 when Allgeier had double-digit carries in half of his games. Robinson only ran for 100 yards twice as a rookie – that’s due for a healthy increase and the presence of a better passing offense can only help to take pressure off the backfield.
TE Kyle Pitts – He posted 68-1026-1 as a rookie playing with the aging Matt Ryan. These last two seasons were disappointments, but the passing offense was one of the worst. He returned from a torn MCL in 2022 and played all 17 games but split catches with Jonnu Smith – who is gone. This is Pitts’ best situation since his rookie year.
WR Drake London – Granted – Kirk Cousins has played with Justin Jefferson, but before that he made 1,000-yard receivers out of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. He almost had two last year. London totals just three 100-yard games in his career, but that’s also sure to increase, along with his first 1,000-yard season.
WR Darnell Mooney – Lands in Atlanta after four seasons in Chicago. He’s been a sub-500 yard receiver for two years while the Bears’ passing offense struggled, but he posted 81 catches for 1,055 yards and four scores in 2021 when Justin Fields was a rookie. He may lack consistency with three other stars on the offense, but he should see an increase from the passing offense that Zac Robinson is importing from the Rams.
Players with new negative situations
QB Kirk Cousins – This may be unfair, and Cousins could certainly maintain his typical 4,000-yard ways for the last many years. He’ll play behind a better O-line as well. The only concern is that he’ll no longer have pass-sponge Justin Jefferson around and the Falcons oddly drafted Michael Penix Jr. despite the wheelbarrow of cash they gave Cousins. The Falcons should have an effective rushing game as well. His worst is still worthy of a fantasy start, and concerns may cause him to drop too far. But he’s not likely to see dramatic increases from his standards and may take a dip.
Where they come from: HC Brandon Staley came from a defensive background and used Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator. They had moved on from Philip Rivers when they drafted Justin Herbert in 2020. In Staley’s first season there, Herbert passed for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns while both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams posted 1,100 receiving yards and Austin Ekeler was the No. 2 fantasy back with 1,558 total yards and 20 touchdowns.
Both starting wideouts struggled with injuries in 2022, and Herbert dropped to 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns but remained a Top-10 fantasy quarterback. Austin Ekeler carried the team with 1,637 total yards and 18 scores as the No. 1 fantasy back. But the offense was mostly limited to two wideouts and Ekeler. Lombardi moved on to Denver last year while Kellen Moore came on board to run the offense after great success in Dallas.
Last year, the Chargers offense dropped to No. 32 in rushing yards (1,135) and even fell to only No. 27 in running back receiving yards after two years of being Top-2. Austin Ekeler had contemplated a holdout but played, albeit at a far lesser level than he had, going from No. 1 to only No. 24 as a fantasy wideout. Mike Williams was lost after only three games, but Keenan Allen turned in 108 catches for 1,243 yards and the only Charger fantasy player of any note.
Their pick of Quentin Johnson as the second wideout drafted for 2023 was a flop and Herbert played most of the second half of the season with a fractured left middle finger, plus later fractured his right index finger in Week 14 that ended his year. It was a lost season due mostly to injuries and the dramatic cliff-dive in production by Ekeler. But Herbert was always a Top-10 passer when he played and finished as high as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback in 2021. And this was the No. 3 passing offense each year when the players were healthy.
2024 changes: This is another team that is going to change their identity in a big way. The Chargers have been a passing machine under Justin Herbert and sported two great wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams – both gone.
Now they head into 2024 without a tight end of any note, and the wideouts were hardly productive last year – Quentin Johnston (38-581-2), Joshua Palmer (38-431-2), and DJ Chark (35-525-5 Carolina). Ladd McConkey is the 2.02 pick by the Chargers this year as the ninth-overall wideout drafted. He carries great potential if only because he is not one of the other mediocre receivers from last year.
The Chargers’ pass-happy ways are over. New head coach Jim Harbaugh left Michigan to take over and employed Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Roman spent 2019-2022 with the Ravens, honing a formidable rushing attack that used a committee approach. In 2023, Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 3,678 yards. He never managed more than 3,127 while playing under Roman.
Harbaugh brought along Roman to install that run game and remake the offense. His Raven offenses were heavily influenced by Lamar Jackson, and that lessened the rushing from the backfield. Backfield workloads will be higher given that Justin Herbert is a pocket passer and not a runner. He typically ran 50 times per year – about three times per game on average.
Basically, Roman is replicating his offense from Baltimore only without a rushing quarterback. The “run sets up the pass” has been quoted many times and the backfield in intended to be rush-heavy. And it will use the same backs as the Ravens had under Roman.
Players with new positive situations
RB J.K. Dobbins – After four seasons of constantly breaking down in Baltimore, Dobbins assumes the RB1 role for the Chargers. He knows the offense. His rookie year (2020) saw him with a 6.0 YPC average and nine scores. His right leg then abandoned him for the last three seasons, missing 2021 with a torn ACL in the preseason, limiting him to only eight games in 2022, and then tearing his Achilles in Week 1 and missing the rest of that year. Despite that, he is installed as the starting running back in the same scheme for the Chargers. Returning from a torn Achilles is often slow if not incomplete, so he has a tremendous opportunity considering his lack of success for three years. Do you feel lucky? He hasn’t in a long time.
RB Gus Edwards – After five seasons with the Ravens being the reliable utility truck of the backfield, Edward also follows Roman to the Chargers, where he again reprises the role as the team RB2 that is most likely to serve as the RB1 at some point when Dobbins goes down again. He’s never been better than 810 rushing yards, but more than doubled his touchdown record with 13 last year when the Ravens let him take the goal line plunges that Lamar Jackson had once dominated. He tore his ACL in 2022, but appeared little affected by it the next year.
WR Josh Palmer – The third-round pick of 2021 hasn’t topped 770 yards or four touchdowns in a season, but loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams thrusts him into a WR1 for at least the start of the year. Yes, the offense will likely throw fewer passes so there is a ceiling he’ll bump into, but he’s also the first read for Justin Herbert when he throws. That Baltimore-style offense rarely uses running backs as receivers and there’s no tight end of any note to steal passes. It’s a safe bet that the Chargers’ receivers will see a decline this year – except for the top two who should dominate the targets.
WR Quentin Johnston – The Chargers knew Allen and Williams were aging and likely to leave when they spent their 1.21 pick on Johnston in the 2023 NFL draft. Johnston was a disappointment with only 38 catches for 431 yards and two scores and he had the chance last year with Mike Williams missing the season. But the situation is more favorable this year with a chance to return to the form he had at TCU and he’ll start out as the WR2 meaning a higher volume of targets. He has a better situation but he must show up more in the preseason this time.
WR Ladd McConkey – The rookie was just the ninth-overall wideout taken in a receiver-rich draft and if he remains as the WR3, his fantasy value won’t be high in this new offense. But the ex-Georgia star merits a fantasy pick to see where he ends up by the end of the summer. Again – he’s the only unproven wideout on the depth chart and that’s a plus in this case.
Players with new negative situations
QB Justin Herbert – He was a Top-8 fantasy quarterback for his first three seasons and passed for 5,000 yards in 2021. But he faces three downgrades that cannot be ignored. He lost his two starting wideouts from the last four years, the Chargers adopt a new run-first scheme that decreases passes and he returns from a fractured index finger on his throwing hand that ended his season in Week 14 last year. There is a chance that he could fall too far in fantasy drafts because he is very talented and reportedly will be healed from his surgery of last year. But his situation is undeniably less favorable than any other year he has played.
Where they come from: HC Mike Vrabel spent six years with the Titans, reaching the playoffs three times and even made it to the Conference Championship in 2019 when they lost to the Chiefs. Vrabel’s background was entirely on defense, so the offense has been handled by four different offensive coordinators including Arthur Smith, Todd Smith and most recently Tim Kelly.
This offense was conservative with the pass and always Top-10 in rushing attempts, and even ranked No. 1 in the metric in 2020 and 2021 thanks to feeding Derrick Henry. It has been Bottom-3 in pass attempts for all but one year under Vrabel (No. 26 – 2021). They ranked dead last – No. 32 – in passing attempts last year and only No. 31 in passing scores (12). DeAndre Hopkins (75-1057-7) remained the No. 22 fantasy wideout but there was virtually no fantasy value of any note from any other receiver.
Will Levis was their 2.02 pick last year as the fourth overall quarterback drafted. He became the starter in Week 8 and even managed 327 passing yards in Week 14 in Miami. But the Titans always had one of the weakest passing offenses in the NFL under Vrabel, and relied heavily on Derrick Henry controlling games. DeAndre Hopkins joined them in 2023 and managed to remain healthy for the first time in three seasons, but his yards and scores dwarfed all other Titans. The Titans had no 1,000-yard receivers for two straight seasons after A.J. Brown was allowed to leave.
2024 changes: Yet another team that looks to reverse their established identity from last year with a few new players, losing their previous star, and changing coaches and offensive schemes. First, they brought in HC Brian Callahan who spent the previous four seasons running the offense in Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow has been a Top-8 fantasy quarterback when healthy. The Bengals ranked No. 4 in pass completions last season and yet No. 31 in rushing attempts for the last two years. This is a complete reversal of the Titans’ ways.
There is an offensive line that declined the last few years, but they immediately attended to it in the NFL draft with their 1.07 pick going to the best offensive tackle. DeAndre Hopkins was the lone receiver of any note in 2023 but is now joined by Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd for their best trio in many years. The Battleship Tennessee has completely changed course and will be gaining speed.
Players with new positive situations
QB Will Levis – He enters his second season suddenly directing a pass-first offense, and with new weaponry to use. He only averaged 31 passes per game as a starter and never threw more than 39 times. That will change.
WR Tyler Boyd – He may still be a No. 3 wideout for the Titans as well, but they’ll need to throw the ball and he already knows the offense and continues to play under OC Brian Callahan. He loses Joe Burrow, but the situation is no worse in Tennessee and could end up as a nice value pick in drafts.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – He already posted 1,057 yards in his first season as a Titan and the offense will be more pass-heavy and Will Levis more experienced. There are other receivers that may lessen his looks, but he will no longer be the only wideout that worried defenses.
Players with new negative situations
RB Tony Pollard – After seemingly a better option than Ezekiel Elliott as the No. 2 in Dallas, Pollard was far less effective as the No. 1 back last year. That allowed the Cowboys to let him leave and join the Titans where the scheme may not be that different, but the offensive line will be. Tyjae Spears will see involvement and Pollard’s big chance at glory flopped last season. He should continue to see receptions which will help.
WR Calvin Ridley – He may succeed here. But his big return to the playing field last year wasn’t as great as hoped, barely clipping 1,000 yards while playing with Trevor Lawrence (who also fell short of expectations). Ridley even had the benefit of being the only Jacksonville wideout that remained healthy for more than 11 games. He’ll need to get on the same page with Will Levis in a new offensive scheme. His future is brighter later on than this transition year.
Top-5 defenses are a small advantage – if you can get that pick right.
First, there is a current trend in fantasy football towards not using team defenses as a scoring position. It is, by and large, a notoriously difficult position to get right and the payoff is minimal at best when you do. There are several reasons:
Defenses don’t really “do” anything, they just react to stop offenses.
Defenses benefit by just one or two superstar players, but more often their opponents try to avoid those talented defenders.
Most fantasy points – sacks, interceptions, safeties – occur on pass plays so opponents need to be forced to throw more.
So they are a reactive unit that varies depending on what their opponents are doing – that makes them hard to forecast for the week, let alone for the year.
The below table is sorted according to the Average Draft Position of team defenses this summer (2023). Certainly the top six are considered the difference-makers and are near locks to go first. After that, the order varies significantly. The table also shows how each defense has ranked over the last five years, along with how much experience/continuity that defense has with their defensive coordinator this season.
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
DC Yrs Exp
SFO
1
2
16
19
2
30
New
PHI
2
4
14
10
16
31
New
DAL
3
3
1
18
26
23
2
NEP
4
1
2
15
1
12
4
BUF
5
6
4
9
8
21
6
BAL
6
7
25
4
7
3
1
JAC
7
5
32
28
23
15
1
KCC
8
13
9
12
5
9
4
NYJ
9
10
28
27
11
10
2
MIA
10
23
3
3
32
8
New
PIT
11
28
21
2
3
17
1
NOS
12
21
7
6
9
11
1
CIN
13
30
19
31
31
22
4
TBB
14
15
5
8
10
29
1
DEN
15
24
17
23
18
16
New
SEA
16
8
26
13
12
13
1
CLE
17
9
18
14
20
18
New
WAS
18
18
27
7
22
4
3
IND
19
22
6
5
13
6
1
LAC
20
14
24
25
29
20
New
GBP
21
11
10
20
17
19
2
DET
22
19
30
32
27
24
2
NYG
23
25
20
17
21
28
1
CAR
24
20
23
16
15
26
New
LAR
25
26
11
1
4
2
2
TEN
26
27
8
24
14
14
2
MIN
27
17
15
26
6
7
New
HOU
28
16
22
29
19
5
New
ATL
29
29
29
22
24
27
New
CHI
30
32
12
21
25
1
1
ARI
31
12
13
11
28
25
New
LVR
32
31
31
30
30
32
1
In case you’ve missed it, everyone pretty much just drafts defenses based off the prior year’s results. So taking a step back to see how each defense actually does over time offers a interesting view. The Top-7 of 2022 are all the Top-7 in Average Draft Position for this year. That’s usually true every season.
Remember too, only the Top-5 really offer much advantage. Last year in Huddle standard scoring for defenses, the No. 6 team (BUF – 128 points) and the No. 20 team (CAR – 100 points) was only 28 points which averages 1.7 points per week. Which is also why team defenses are on the wane in fantasy football.
Notable too is that last season only three teams (DAL, NEP, BUF) repeated a Top-10 performance from the previous year. The Ravens bounced back from a down 2021 season when injuries ravaged the team, and the Jaguars shook off the nightmare of 2021 to roar back from No. 32 to No. 5 last year.
Picking through the results, there were other instances of a defense just having a bad year. There were several that logged just one good year in the most recent five. Perhaps the most amazing has been just how bad the Lions, Falcons, and Raiders have been with defensive fantasy points.
It is also interesting to see just how much turnover there is with defensive coordinators with only five that have been in their job for at least three years. That’s yet another challenge in evaluating defenses every summer.
But the top difference-makers are all that matters. Truly. Let’s take a look at how the first five defenses taken in the average draft fared. Here are the first five picks in each year, along with where they ended their season in fantasy points.
Picks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
1
BUF
LAR
PIT
CHI
JAC
Actual
7
11
2
25
15
2
LAR
WAS
SF
LAC
LAR
Actual
26
27
19
29
2
3
DAL
TB
BAL
LAR
MIN
Actual
3
5
4
4
7
4
TB
PIT
BUF
JAC
PHI
Actual
25
21
9
23
31
5
SF
BUF
NE
BAL
LAC
Actual
2
4
15
7
20
There is always that one hot defense for the year that is taken, sometimes two full rounds before any other, that kicks off the position. The first three have a very strong consensus in most drafts and that one first pick is almost always expected to be “the one.”
There’s about a 50-50 chance of that “taken way too early” pick working out. Even then, only the Steelers in 2020 returned a Top-5 performance. The rest did not offer much advantage at all, if not actually a disadvantage because you will continue to start that precious No. 1 drafted defense regardless of actual results.
The second pick has oddly been bad in each of the last four years, and mostly really, really bad. Every week you’re deciding if you need to cut your losses and go another route.
Most oddly of all, the No. 3 pick has been as golden as any in the last five years.
Conclusion
Look, if your fantasy league uses team defenses – and most do – then it is a scoring position that merits some attention to get right. Points are points. Maybe not a lot, and there is a reason why fantasy defenses usually wait for the end of the draft. That reason is much more sound than the one that leads to taking the first defense off the board two rounds too early.
“Really? Already?”
The position is a challenge to get right in fantasy. Continuity helps, which is why most of the top scoring defenses have the longest-tenured coordinator and scheme. Your chances of picking a defense that offers an advantage, however small, are greatly increased by taking a Top-5 and then not waiting long to get a second one.
If your roster can handle it, owning a second or even a third defense helps decide which one is the best bet and then gives you something to cut later on when acquiring free agents in other positions.
And the waiver wire is your friend, because at least two or three will far exceed expectations/draft slot every season. Waiting on the position and getting two Top-20 defenses probably won’t kill your team, but it will not help it and one of the beautiful parts of an early defense is that you don’t experience the frustration of trying to pick the right one every week.
Streaming defenses is an option, but only if there are enough viable options on the waiver wire. None of the top defenses are going to be there and they are the only ones that matter.
Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?
It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.
The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers or defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.
In the 2021 iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. Last year, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2. This time around, five receivers, including the first three picks, six running backs, and Travis Kelce went in the opening stanza.
Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. Last year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second. The most recent one featured eight receivers, three RBs, and TE Mark Andrews.
The 2021 draft’s first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes), and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 in ’22. We saw Allen go 27th this year, while three more went in Round 3. Only four total passers went in the first 50 choices, whereas seven went in the same range last season.
In the first 100 picks of the 2021 draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In last year’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. This time around, however, 11 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 8 TEs were chosen. Drafters have been pretty consistent year over year in terms of positional distribution.
Running back atop the draft is a dicey bet this season. There are more uncertain situations that sure things, and it’s clear gamers are leaning heavily on elite wideouts in 2023. Factor that into your draft plans but be prepared to pivot as needed. Going with two receivers right off the top should set you up well to build a reliable stable of running backs in Rounds 3-6.
Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 13th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like the last few years. Following the consensus top-four TEs — all of whom went in the first six rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle. The next tier of TEs — Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram — all come with significant concerns.
Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:
1:06) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: He bounces between my WR2 and No. 3. If he and Matthew Stafford are healthy, there’s no reason Kupp won’t return on a No. 6 overall investment in PPR. A line of 120-1,500-12 is within reach.
2:07) WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Wilson was impressive as a rookie and now gets a massive upgrade at quarterback. He easily should be Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 1 target and is poised to take his game to a new level in Year 2.
3:06) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Henry isn’t an ideal RB1 in PPR, especially in his age-29 season, but he is the offense until proven otherwise. The line improved, and Ryan Tannehill returns, so hopefully there’s one last strong campaign in the tank.
4:07) RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Gibbs may not have a huge workload, though his receiving chops and David Montgomery‘s lackluster style could have him in the RB2 conversation sooner than later. The O-line is strong, and Gibbs’ efficiency is alluring.
5:06) RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I debated a WR here, but the uncertainty of Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry‘s age swayed me toward White’s dual-threat nature. It may not be pretty in terms of efficiency, but he’ll get the rock aplenty.
7:06) QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: Having missed out on my preferred QB targets, I’ll rely on Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder in his first season with the Jets. New York boasts plenty of weapons in a system Rodgers knows intimately.
8:07) WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: I banked on Kadarius Toney and/or Chig Okonkwo making it back to me in Round 9, but both went right after this one. It all comes down to Thomas’ health, and he’s a fine WR4 gamble.
9:06) TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: Since I missed out on Okonkwo, Schultz was a pleasant surprise to see here in PPR. While he may not be a prolific TD scorer, Houston’s QB situation and suspect WR corps means abundant volume.
11:06) WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Doubs as my fifth receiver is well worth the risk associated with Jordan Love being a largely unknown commodity entering his first year as a starter. Green Bay’s No. 2 should be good for a 60-800-5 floor.
12:07) RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: White’s RB2 competition is unimpressive. Purely a gamble on Josh Jacobs breaking down following a monster workload in 2022, White has at least weekly flex utility should the Alabama standout fall to injury.
13:06) QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Top-10 returns are in play if Tagovailoa can avoid getting his bell rung yet again. The weapons are prolific, and he’s a high-upside QB2 behind my starter, Aaron Rodgers.
14:07) WR Kyle Philips, Tennessee Titans: A total flier as my WR6, Philips’ ball skills and role from the slot intrigues me in PPR scoring formats. I can see a winding, uneven path to 50-plus catches and occasional lineup utility.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Bonus draft recap!
As part of the magazine mock draft participation agreement, we also took part in a non-PPR version. Here’s my team review for that one:
1:03) RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: He has a high enough ceiling to finish as the RB1, and the passing game still isn’t strong enough to suggest Brian Daboll will be comfortable not leaning on Barkley. His 2022 workload is my only concern.
2:10) WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is stacked, but the passing game goes through this man. He scored 11 times in 2022, and I won’t be surprised to see that increase as Jalen Hurts continues to grow as a passer.
3:03) RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: There are several backs who could cut into Stevenson’s overall volume, especially as a receiver, but he’s easily the top back around the stripe with Damien Harris gone. A dozen scores are within reach.
4:10) QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: I rarely draft a QB this early. But in non-PPR scoring, he’s basically another starting running back and still has a good shot at improving as a passer thanks to upgrades and maturation.
5:03) WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: I’m high on Jordan Love at least being above average. If that’s going to happen, Watson will be a top-24 fantasy option. His game makes him the best bet for leading Green Bay WRs in TDs.
6:10) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, his QB situation stinks, but the track record and scoring prowess are strong enough to justify landing him as a No. 3. In Baker We Trust? At least enough for seven TDs to Evans!
7:03) RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders: I’m not particularly fond of Eric Bieniemy’s play calling, and Sam Howell makes me nerves. However, Robinson’s goal-line skills put him in play for double-digit scores, and he enters Year 2 healthy, unlike last summer.
8:10) WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: Davis has flashed a number of times but has yet to put it together for a full season. Warts and all, a career rate of a TD every 5.9 grabs is tough to ignore in non-PPR.
9:03) TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans: Okonkwo has all of the tools necessary to shine, and the Titans’ lack of proven receiving outlets, coupled with the possibility of a rookie QB taking over, make him the No. 2 target behind Treylon Burks.
10:10) RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: What’s there not to like about a running back named “Tank” in a TD-heavy format?!? Kidding aside, Travis Etienne isn’t built to shoulder a full load, and Bigsby is the best short-area back on the roster.
11:03) WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns: Touchdowns probably won’t be plentiful, though he scored five times in as many games to close out 2021. The quarterback situation is an upgrade in Cleveland vs. his past QBs, and this late he’s a fine WR5.
12:10) RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: How many more years can Derrick Henry completely carry the offense? Spears would’ve been an early-round pick if not for two ACL tears. He’s a complete back with major upside in a run-based system.
13:03) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs: The veteran hasn’t scored much over the past two years, but he was a red-zone threat in 2022 and found paydirt 14 times in his first couple of seasons. He’s a steal this late.
14:10) QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Having two QBs with a Week 14 is irrelevant to me. Athletic and well-prepared, Love has weapons, a sound line, RBs to rely on, and offers QB1 potential. I like him for a mid-teens finish.
These players could make a difference at a cheap price.
Injuries happen. It’s just the nature of the NFL, and the fallout has ruined many a fantasy football season over the years. After all, there’s nothing quite like the sting of losing your first-round pick a month into the season. That’s the game, however, and it’s why finding good depth at the end of drafts is so vital. With that in mind, here are five running backs to consider in the later rounds.
Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.
All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.
In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.
What are you waiting for?!? It’s time to get into The Huddle! Sign up today.
I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.
Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.
A second PPR draft in mid-May showed a few different patterns emerge.
Much like with our May edition of the Mock Draft Series, out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.
The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t write up our final four), here are a few observations from an 18-round, 12-team, PPR draft.
This group was hyper-aggressive with selecting wide receivers early in the first round, especially atop the draft. Four of the first seven selections were wideouts, including Cooper Kupp going No. 3 overall. Detroit running back D’Andre Swift going 12th was the only thing close to a surprise in the opening round. Three tight ends and six receivers went in the second round. The rest were running backs.
The first QB came off the board was Josh Allen was taken with the fifth selection of Round 3, which is the earliest any quarterback has gone in the first three drafts of this series. Justin Herbert went with the final pick in Round 6, followed two spots later by Patrick Mahomes. Only Lamar Jackson (Pick 8:09) would go over the next 24 choices.
In the first 100 picks, 5 QBs, 42 RBs, 44 WRs and 9 TEs were taken. During the PPR draft a week prior, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends.
Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:
We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:
1:02) RB Austin Ekeler, Las Angeles Chargers: It came down to Derrick Henry being dominant one more time, Cooper Kupp as the safest pick here, or Ekeler remaining healthy. I was most concerned about not having a strong enough RB1 if I chose the wideout.
2:11) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowing the drafter at the turn had an elite RB and presuming WR-WR was in play, I went with Evans before another back. It played out as expected. Evans and Keenan Allen were the best remaining WR1s.
3:02) RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: I hoped Chubb would survive the turn, and my Round 2 decision paid off. Injuries and time-sharing concerns are real, but Chubb is a TD machine and gives me a legit RB1 as my second back.
4:11) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: The debate was McLaurin and Courtland Sutton, who went with the very next pick. McLaurin has proven to be mostly QB-proof and makes for a quality WR2, even with Carson Wentz under center.
5:02) RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: Three drafts, three Harris selections … it’s not that I’m necessarily a huge fan, but he’s a tremendous RB3. Thanks to Harris’ scoring prowess, none of the remaining backs were definitively better options at this stage.
6:11) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: A strong draft start afforded this gamble. Hopkins will miss six games, sure, but he’s a borderline WR1 lock in PPR upon his return. It’s not too often you can plug that kind of talent into your WR3 slot.
7:02) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Securing my third-ranked passer in Round 7 ahead of the long end of my wait, Mahomes was tough to let pass. While the WR talent regressed, he makes players around him better and will be fine.
8:11) WR Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Lazard may emerge as the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay after the Davante Adams trade. It’s worth a late-round wager to find out. At a minimum, he’s adequate depth for me while Hopkins is out.
9:02) TE Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans: I’m much higher on Hooper’s rebound than most, and since I tend to wait on TEs, this one was a no-brainer. Tennessee’s WR situation is shaky, at best, and Hooper is an ideal fit for the system.
10:11) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants: Can the talented Golladay stay on the field? His quarterback situation could hold him back, but I’m willing to bank on Brian Daboll getting the most out of Daniel Jones. The rest is up to Golladay.
11:02) RB Marlon Mack, Houston Texans: I should’ve taken Tyler Allgeier over Golladay. The rookie went at the turn, forcing a pivot to Mack. A whole lotta “meh,” but he has a chance, which is all one can ask for this late.
12:11) TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Kmet is one of my favorites for a breakout season, and the third-year tight end covers my backside if the Hooper gamble doesn’t pan out. There’s legit TE1 potential in Chicago’s new offense.
13:02) RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions: Since the Mack pick could go either way, a safe, reliable veteran was the target, and Williams fits the bill. Plus, D’Andre Swift has proven to be less than a model of health thus far.
14:11) WR Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills: In three years with Buffalo, Cole Beasley was a PPR powerhouse out of the slot, and Crowder should have little trouble assuming the role in this pass-heavy system. He provides excellent value-to-upside ratio.
Rounding out the draft: Arizona Cardinals RB Keaontay Ingram (Round 15), PK Daniel Carlson (Round 16), QB Jameis Winston (Round 17) and Miami Dolphins defense/special teams (Round 18).
Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?
It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.
The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers of defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.
In last year’s iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. This time out, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2.
Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. This year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second stanza.
The first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes) last year, and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 this time around. Mahomes went second with the final selection of Round 6, followed by Justin Herbert in early Round 7. Five more went in the next 30 choices.
In the first 100 picks of last year’s draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In this May’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. It’s nice to see more owners waiting on quarterbacks, though.
Drafting in the top eight is a great situation this year. You’re bound to come away with a legit No. 1 running back. There’s enough depth at the position to either go with a pair in the opening two rounds or alternate between RB and WR in the first four rounds while still coming away with a strong nucleus.
This theme also was on full display in 2021 drafts. Taking consecutive receivers to close out Round 1 wasn’t the ideal strategy, but the plan was to test it out. The position is so ridiculously deep that gamers can hold off, making the preferred strategy is to come out of the first three rounds with a single receiver.
Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 12th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.
Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:
We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:
1:12) Stefon Diggs: In PPR, his sheer volume alone makes up for the lack of scoring prowess. The Bills actually could lean on him even more this year if Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder don’t step up as much as expected.
2:01) Deebo Samuel: I’m not overly worried about the standoff, but Samuel’s aerial exploits may suffer with Trey Lance starting. Samuel also isn’t likely to rush nearly as much as a year ago. Talent usually wins out, however.
3:12) J.K. Dobbins: A WR-WR start was a mistake at No. 12. I should have drafted Leonard Fournette, Javonte Williams or D’Andre Swift instead of Deebo. Dobbins was injured early enough to be healthy, but he’s not an RB1.
4:01) Damien Harris: Choosing an early-down running back with heavy TD dependence isn’t how this was drawn up in PPR. Breece Hall was a consideration, but Harris is a safer RB2 candidate, and that’s what I needed here.
5:12) Josh Allen: Allen’s high ceiling can carry my weak RBs, and I love the Diggs stack. I usually wait on QBs; after seeing all of the value buys, I won’t give in to the temptation again.
6:01) Mike Williams: His all-or-nothing nature is not ideal, but Williams’ role in such a reliable, pass-friendly system makes for a rock-solid WR3 to help offset my shaky RBs. A WR14 finish again? No, but WR25-30 is fine.
7:12) Rashaad Penny: This is what happens when waiting to draft running backs … you start stockpiling risk-reward types at the most volatile position. Penny’s late surge last year was as real as his injury history and backfield competition.
8:01) DeAndre Hopkins: After waiting too long to draft my first running back (insert Deebo joke here), Hopkins presented an interesting flex gamble. Yes, he’ll miss six games, but Nuk’s volume will be a nice addition upon his return.
9:12) Tyler Allgeier: Another RB without a receiving role, Allgeier enters a decent situation for a TD-heavy role. Cordarrelle Patterson’s age-30 breakout won’t be repeated, although both QB options will steal TD opportunities from the rookie.
10:01) Michael Carter: Breece Hall should steal the show, but if he struggles or gets injured, Carter’s versatility will be a welcomed addition to lineups. This sort of high-upside depth is what to look for after a WR-WR start.
11:12) DeVante Parker: Why not? He’s far from a true WR1, but Parker has a reasonable shot to lead this mediocre passing attack in fantasy production. Parker’s biggest enemy, as usual, will be his own body failing him.
12:01) Austin Hooper: Hooper didn’t just forget how to catch once he signed with Cleveland, a team that totally misused his skills. A lack of weaponry for Ryan Tannehill — in a TE-friendly system — piques my interest.
13:12) Khalil Herbert: OC Luke Getsy comes from Green Bay and was no stranger to incorporating a 2-to-1 committee approach in which the RB2 gets enough volume to matter. Herbert did his part last year, so this is a worthy gamble.
14:01) Donovan Peoples-Jones: In Year 2, he took a significant step forward while catching passes from a battered Baker Mayfield. Deshaun Watson is a tremendous upgrade, and Amari Cooper helps draw defensive attention. DPJ is a steal this late.
