First 3 Picks: 12-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

Your first three picks define your fantasy football team. Each one is critical because the player pool is ever-shrinking, and you have to select a mixture of available players to produce an optimal team. And those initial rounds determine what you’ll do in the later rounds of the draft. Get them wrong, and you may not be able to recover.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 12-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover virtually all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks, and what you still need after three rounds.  Rankings change daily so these may not exactly match site rankings. Pay the most attention to the positions and how they work together for an optimal start.

Performance scoring league

Average Points Top-10 scoring: QB 412, RB 228, WR  212, TE 127

Performance scoring without reception points means that top running backs are a premium, and quarterbacks are comparatively more valuable. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but still total four starters in most  fantasy football leagues.  Most teams take two running backs over their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic because the supply is very low by Round 4.

The above three rounds are an optimal way to start the draft for all twelve draft slots. Let’s consider where each should be looking next after the three-pick start:

Team 1: RB Jonathan Taylor, QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary
Top running back and quarterback are a big start. Cherry picking two wideouts over the next three rounds, and taking a third running back when the value seems best is in order.
Team 2: RB Derrick Henry, WR Stefon Diggs, RB Aaron Jones
The nice part of a top wideout is the consistent points. Best available with this start, but a third running back, a quarterback and another wideout make sense here.
Team 3: RB Austin Ekeler, RB Travis Etienne, WR Mike Evans
Same as Team 2. The next pick is too far to make concrete plans, but team is free to grab whatever. Strong start at running back means can wait on other positions. Best value will be wideout next, then quarterback.
Team 4: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB D’Andre Swift, WR CeeDee Lamb
This plan is pretty standard for the first half of the draft. And it usually works well in this format. This could be very good, but there is risk with McCaffrey and Swift from injury. Feel better to grab a running back and a quarterback next.
Team 5: RB Nick Chubb, WR Davante Adams, WR Tyreek Hill
Need to consider running back next, but will be looking at guys like Kareem Hunt, AJ Dillon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at best. Could go tight end and quarterback and then start scraping for upside running backs.
Team 6: RB Joe Mixon, WR Deebo Samuel, RB Antonio Gibson
In the middle of the draft, solid enough picks though nothing elite in any of them. Might consider a quarterback next just for a bigger bang for the buck and at least a slight advantage at the highest scoring position.
Team 7: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Tee Higgins
The RB-RB start meant the No. 7 and No. 14 running backs, and there’s no advantage there but feels safe. Rather than collect more average (or worse) running backs, should consider quarterback and maybe even a tight end for the paper-thin advantage there.
Team 8: RB Najee Harris, RB Alvin Kamara, QB Patrick Mahomes
While this was much the same as Team 7, it looks better. Harris loses a lot without reception points but Kamara high-upside pick with, at least so far, risk. Scooping Mahomes up in the third means free to go where ever but needs one or two wide receivers pretty soon.
Team 9: WR Cooper Kupp, RB Saquon Barkley, RB J.K. Dobbins
This is riskier than most but Pick 9 is often the worst slot. Resisted yet another running back and gets advantage at wideout. Barkley is a scratch-off lottery ticket again this year and Dobbins fresh from his ACL tear is a risk. But at least has a core of starters. Next three picks should consider best available among any non-kicker/non-defense.
Team 10: RB Javonte Williams, WR Justin Jefferson, TE Mark Andrews
Drafting this deep, still went with the ninth running back taken. But arguably Top-2 at wideout and tight end offers some advantage. Has to look at running backs for at least the next two picks.
Team 11: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Cam Akers
Chase is great in any format and two running backs just played it safe. Only two picks away from the fourth choice and Justin Herbert would be a nice add. Fifth and sixth picks should likely be a wideout and a running back.
Team 12: RB James Conner, TE Travis Kelce, WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Taking the tenth running back is no advantage, but waiting until the turn at the end of Round 3 would mean Damien Harris or David Montgomery as his best back. Getting Kelce is far less advantageous without reception points, but still makes sense here. Should still consider the 4.01 for running back.

Reception-point league 

Average Points Top-10 scoring: QB 412, RB 278, WR  314, TE 197

This scoring style boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks. Running backs are popular in any scoring scenario, but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

After  the first ten or so wideouts are gone, the position will remain slightly better than comparable running backs but are also much deeper.

Team 1: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Keenan Allen, TE Mark Andrews
The obligatory pick of Taylor was followed by the double scoop at the 2.12 and 3.01. Then went with tenth wideout for a legitimate WR1 and Andrews is more of a difference maker when the reception point is added. The next wrap- around at 4.12 and 5.01 pick from remaining committee backs and maybe take two since Top-3 quarterbacks are gone anyway.
Team 2: RB Austin Ekeler, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Safe enough start that works well depending on which Barkley shows up. But the core is accomplished and best available players are up next. Probably should consider a third running back over the next three picks.
Team 3: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyreek Hill, RB L. Fournette
Bit of risk here for an early pick, but the upside of both McCaffrey and Hill are immense. Picked up the RB2 for a start that could be great if it all falls the right way. Has the luxury of taking the best available for the next two rounds and that probably will be his WR2 and RB3.
Team 4: RB Derrick Henry, RB James Conner, WR D.J. Moore
The safe start feels good but Moore as his WR1 is no advantage. Solid running backs mean two more wideouts are next and maybe a quarterback if a Top-3 still exists by the 6.09.
Team 5: WR Cooper Kupp, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Ezekiel Elliott
This could be deadly if Kamara doesn’t wear an all-orange uniform and Elliott rekindles 2019. But it could also have holes if it goes wrong. The risk of Kamara and Elliott means taking the RB3 sooner than later. But exciting start with upside.
Team 6: WR Justin Jefferson, WR CeeDee Lamb, RB D. Montgomery
By mid-draft, why not start out with two Top-8 wide receivers? Has a great advantage there and has to mine running backs to get lucky on the RB2, but good plan in the middle of a draft.
Team 7: RB Najee Harris, RB Javonte Williams, RB Travis Etienne
This is a big temptation assuming a flex position for Etienne to fill. And running back is the position that is fastest to drain. Now has to mine wideouts and the best will be Darnell Mooney/Mike Williams quality which isn’t terrible. The biggest risk here is that running backs are the most injured positions, and the first three picks have a higher chance of missing time.
Team 8: RB Joe Mixon, WR Mike Evans, RB Aaron Jones
Starts with the No. 6 running back and No. 7 wideout. This tough-to-succeed slot is building an average team. That works only when more than half the league goes to the playoffs (ands they don’t).  Should look at quarterback and tight end next to gets at least some advantage in two positions.
Team 9: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Nick Chubb, WR Tee Higgins
Like Team 8, this is the safest-feeling route but begins with the No. 7 and No. 10 running back, followed by the No. 13 wideout who is a WR2 for his team. No fan of picking ninth, and this looks like another average team. Needs to find some sparks in other positions.
Team 10: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Devin Singletary
WR1 is spectacular, and combining Swift and Singletary are a safe play. But has the option of  A.J. Brown or Brandin Cooks at the 4.03 and possibly Mahomes or Herbert in the fifth round for a better bang in starters.
Team 11: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Deebo Samuel, TE Kyle Pitts
Picking at the end of the first round in this scoring format should be exciting and unconventional. Teams 8 and 9 went the safe route which felt natural at the time but Team 11 took a swing for the fence. Two Top-6 wideouts mean they can wait for four or even six rounds to start collecting WR3 candidates. Needs running backs, and three of them sooner than later since best available at the 4.02 is probably Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson or Breece Hall.
Team 12: TE Travis Kelce, WR Davante Adams, QB Josh Allen
This is how to handle picking last. There is no major advantage in taking running backs at the end of the first round, but owning the No. 1 tight end and quarterback is big in this scoring format. Taking the No. 5 wideout is rock solid for WR1. This does force need picks for running backs that should happen no later than the 5.12 and 6.01 wrap-around. That would yield at best often injured rushers or the RB2 from a committee backfield. But this can win if a sleeper running back can be found.

Super Flex / QB-heavy league 

Average Points Top-10 scoring: QB 412, RB 278, WR  314, TE 197

This league seeds quarterbacks depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the option to start two quarterbacks. That pushes value in other positions deeper into the draft since quarterbacks take up far more of the early picks.  Each 2QB or super-flex league can use different scoring and other aspects that impact player value, so consider the nuances of your league.

This assumes super-flex, where the option to start a second quarterback in a flex position exists and is used by most if not nearly all team owners. Some  leagues can have eight quarterbacks in the first round and six in the second round. In others, maybe half as many. So pay attention and assume the worst when the quarterbacks start flying off the shelf.

It is also assumed that there are reception points. That is by far the most common in that type of league. It is also notable that a team can win without automatically starting two quarterbacks, even when allowed.

Team 1: QB Josh Allen, WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Aaron Rodgers
Double-dipping on quarterbacks over the first three picks is very common – like taking two running backs in the other league formats above.  The great part is that wideouts tend to last longer. So snapping up a running  back or two makes sense because likely the best available is David Montgomery or Travis Etienne. Wideouts will last longer and they already have a Top-3 WR1.
Team 2: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB D’Andre Swift, QB Trey Lance
They went for strength in running backs, unable to pass Taylor or Swift. By Trey Lance at QB14, the pickings are already riskier if not unlikely to be an advantage. But can look at wideouts over the next three picks with some quality and decide if seeding the QB2 makes sense.
Team 3: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Nick Chubb
Safe play. Getting the Mahomes for QB1 feels great, and two of the Top-9 running backs are at worst solid. QB2 isn’t going to be an advantage even at the 4.10, so shop for wideouts with an eye out for the worst QB2 you can be okay owning.
Team 4: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Russell Wilson, RB Javonte Williams
Similar to Team 3, swapping the first two positions selected. And the same issue exists – needs wideouts and quarterbacks are slipping fast.
Team 5: QB Justin Herbert, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Stefon Diggs
Picking in the middle rounds hurt less in this format. They get a top quarterback and then doubles down with Stafford in Round 2. Still reached a Top-5 wideout in Round 3 but running back becomes a need pick – at least two in the next three rounds.
Team 6: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Tom Brady, RB Alvin Kamara
This could be spectacular or a flop depending on McCaffrey’s health, Kamara’s legal limbo and if Brady can continue to perform decades after his peers disappeared. This plan is safe and has a ton of upside, but wideouts are on tap in two of next three picks.
Team 7: WR Cooper Kupp, WR Justin Jefferson, QB Derek Carr
Interesting start in this format – could not resist the top two wide receivers. Can wait on WR3 until after the middle of the draft. But mining quarterbacks and running backs are an immediate and pressing need.
Team 8: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, RB James Conner
Another safe play from the dreaded eight-spot. Wideouts and quarterbacks need to take up at least three of the next four picks.
Team 9: TE Travis Kelce, QB Kirk Cousins, WR Davante Adams
This is a little early for a risk taker but this worked out well in this format as this draft unfolded. Kelce is always an advantage but was still able to reach the No. 9 quarterback as QB1 and Adams lasted until the 3.09. That can happen in this format. If wideouts are taken more heavily, it only improves the running backs and quarterbacks at the 3.09. Regardless, running back is a need now but wideouts and tight ends are not.
Team 10: QB Dak Prescott, RB Najee Harris, RB Leonard Fournette
Starting with QB1 makes sense, and Top-5 RB1 is strong. By the 3.10, quarterbacks are into the bottom half of starters and went the safe route with the thirteenth running back as his RB2. Now has to consider wideouts and quarterback.
Team 11: QB Kyler Murray, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley
This format favors the end of the first round more than the start. They can take two of the Top-8 quarterbacks for a major weekly advantage. The fourteenth running back isn’t much help as RB1 and all positions will be weaker, but the point differential with two starting Top-8 quarterbacks could compensate very well.
Team 12: RB Derrick Henry, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Ezekiel Elliott
Started RB-QB but then had to chose from the No. 15 running back, No. 16 quarterback or the  No. 6 wideout. Picks again immediately and should go with that wideout. But should consider QB2 with the 5.12 even though the remaining options are not great.

Fantasy football draft prep: Breaking biases

Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.

All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.

In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.

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I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.

Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.

7 handcuff running backs to target in fantasy football drafts

Seven of the top running back tandems to handcuff in fantasy football drafts.

It’s common for fantasy football players to “double down” on running backs in whom they’ve made a significant investment by adding the backup late in drafts or auctions. The term for this practice is called “handcuffing” – having two running backs from the same team on your roster.

The key to executing a proper handcuff is in direct relation to the investment made in the first of the two running backs. The player almost certainly needs to be an RB1. There are exceptions to the rule – the first back can be an RB2 in the event there is a belief that two backs will share playing time.

The rationale is pretty simple – if the top guy gets injured, the “handcuff guy” can step in and closely replicate the production.

These are the top seven handcuff players you should consider.

The 5 best late-round tight end fliers in fantasy football

Take a chance on these late-round tight end picks.

This year, like in recent offseasons, the tight end position is rather deep for fantasy football prospects. It’s also once again top-heavy, featuring six reliable No. 1 targets before a notable decline in relative safety. Once those names are off the board, gamers have to decide whether to invest in a starter from the next tier of players or wait even longer to chance it on someone assigned to the backup grouping.

In some cases, drafting a No. 2 tight end isn’t a worthwhile venture, though having a reserve is a must if your starter is injury-prone, generally risky, or among the matchup-based tier. These five tight ends are the best places to turn for taking a late-round gamble on a player defying the odds and ascending to the realm of borderline TE1 territory.

Fantasy football battle: Dallas Goedert vs. Mike Gesicki vs. Dawson Knox

How does this trio of tight ends stack up against each other?

For those who choose to wait on drafting tight ends to fill other positions first in fantasy football drafts, there are still quality players available once the shelves begin to empty, but they aren’t viewed as “can’t miss” fantasy prospects. They all have some concerns keeping them from being one of the top guys.

We take a look at three of those prospects at the bottom end of the TE1 grouping and where to rank them – Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles), Mike Gesicki, of the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo BillsDawson Knox. Each has some strong selling points, but they also have some cause for pause on draft day.

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Fantasy football sleepers: 5 rookie receivers to consider

Late-round rookie receivers to consider in fantasy football drafts.

Does anything get fantasy football owners’ blood pumping more than rookie wideouts and running backs? Those whose perceptions haven’t been stained by a year or two of underwhelming production while learning the intricacies of the NFL game.

We all know the first-round wideouts with find homes in fantasy drafts, but where will we find this year’s version of Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown? Here are five names to consider in the later rounds.

Fantasy football mock draft series: July takeaways

Recapping a recent fantasy football industry draft to look for trends and more.

Fantasy football drafts are heating up as we enjoy summer weather and cold beverages. A recently hosted industry mock draft is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The draft results will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks, here are a few observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In last June’s iteration, Round 1 saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2 and Justin Jefferson as the third selection. This version saw Kupp drafted fourth and Jefferson seventh with nine RBs making up the rest of the round.
  • Six RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s June draft, followed by one fewer receiver and solo tight end. This year’s June draft was no different. In the July edition, five backs, one tight end, and six wideouts were chosen.
  • The first QB, Josh Allen, was taken with the opening pick of Round 5 in June. Justin Herbert went just two picks later, and only a pair of passers came off the board in the next 31 selections (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes). This time around, Allen was Pick 5:05, and Mahomes went with the very next spot. Herbert went with the eighth pick in the fifth round. Seven quarterbacks went in the first 75 choices this time. Quarterback remains quite deep with a viable starter often being available into the 13th round.
  • Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.
  • In the first 100 picks, nine QBs, 40 RBs, 43 WRs and eight TEs — no significant changes from the June version when eight quarterbacks, 38 RBs, 45 WRs and nine tight ends were chosen.
  • Pick 10 is an interesting spot this year. In the FSGA draft, which was a 14-teamer, it was brutal compared to a 12-squad setup. This draft having a dozen teams made me appreciate the slotting more than expected.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 9 RBs, 3 WRs
2nd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
4th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
5th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 3 QBs, 3 RB, 6 WRs
7th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 7 WRs
9th: 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
10th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 6 WRs

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My roster

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Aaron Rodgers GB 14
RB James Conner ARI 13
RB JK Dobbins BAL 10
RB Rashaad Penny SEA 11
RB Miles Sanders PHI 7
RB Hassan Haskins TEN 6
WR Ja’Marr Chase CIN 10
WR Stefon Diggs BUF 7
WR Jerry Jeudy DEN 9
WR Allen Lazard GB 14
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 8
WR Jalen Tolbert DAL 9
TE Dalton Schultz DAL 9
TE Austin Hooper TEN 6
PK Matt Prater ARI 13
DT Los Angeles Chargers LAC 8

By round

Pick Rnd Player Tm Pos
10 1.1 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR
15 2.3 Stefon Diggs BUF WR
34 3.1 James Conner ARI RB
39 4.3 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB
58 5.1 Dalton Schultz DAL TE
63 6.3 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR
82 7.1 Rashaad Penny SEA RB
87 8.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB
106 9.1 Allen Lazard GB WR
111 10.3 Aaron Rodgers GB QB
130 11.1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC WR
135 12.3 Hassan Haskins TEN RB
154 13.1 Austin Hooper TEN TE
159 14.3 Jalen Tolbert DAL WR
178 15.1 Los Angeles Chargers LAC Def/ST
183 16.3 Matt Prater ARI K

Keeping the previous iterations’ format alive, each pick gets a brief explanation of my draft thoughts:

Recapping 2022 FSGA fantasy football experts draft

The good, the bad, and the ugly from the FSGA Champions draft.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, but the most prestigious one of all was held recently. It featured 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in the “Champions League” via an online draft hosted by RTSports.com.

We normally congregate in person, but the pandemic-induced online format is on its third year and very well could be here to stay. SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thoroughly covered the event once again, and subscribers can catch up on any missed commentary in the station’s online archives.

I’ve had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for approximately a decade now, making the postseason six of the past seven years, including one appearance in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to go take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take aggressive actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

Last year, the team finished in fifth place and made the playoffs, but a loss by fewer than five points sent me packing early. Not great, but not terrible, either.

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Despite drafting standouts Tom Brady and Cooper Kupp, late-season star Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and Nick Chubb, the team couldn’t withstand a few poor assessments on my part as well as injuries ¹. My Round 4 pick of Kupp, in particular, was met with ridicule, and I caught flak for snagging Swift in Round 2. Spilled milk to some, I suppose, but it’s merely an anecdote to share about not getting caught up in the opinions of other people.

The league is a performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting even into mid-July — mind you, this used to take place a month prior — forces gamers to take an educated guess on appropriate value of unsettled situations.

My team drafted out of the 10th spot, which wasn’t as bad as choosing out of the ninth hole a year ago. The team should be competitive, and with a few breaks, it could once again surpass the expectations of its critics. That said, it will need waiver help (no trades allowed) to truly contend.

Full roster by round

Pick Rnd Pos Player Tm
10 1.10 RB Joe Mixon CIN
19 2.5 WR Mike Evans TB
38 3.10 WR Courtland Sutton DEN
47 4.5 RB Damien Harris NE
66 5.10 WR Allen Robinson LAR
75 6.5 RB Devin Singletary BUF
94 7.10 QB Joe Burrow CIN
103 8.5 TE Austin Hooper TEN
122 9.10 RB Tyler Allgeier ATL
131 10.5 WR Kenny Golladay NYG
150 11.10 WR Jamison Crowder BUF
159 12.5 RB Hassan Haskins TEN
178 13.10 WR Jalen Tolbert DAL
187 14.5 TE David Njoku CLE
206 15.10 Def/ST Los Angeles Chargers LAC
215 16.5 K Rodrigo Blankenship IND

Fantasy football pros and cons: Kyle Pitts vs. George Kittle vs. Dalton Schultz

Will the winner of this exercise surprise you?

It is widely viewed in ranking fantasy football tight ends that Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs and Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens are in a class of their own atop the tight end depth chart.

The question then becomes, who is in the next tier of tight ends once the top two guys are gone? Before we get into it, Darren Waller is the wild card here. He goes anywhere from the third to sixth tight end chosen, on average, depending upon the ADP source. A more casual league typically translates to an earlier selection, likely due in part to name recognition.

The next three are very different athletes, but each can make an argument to be included near the top. George Kittle, of the San Francisco 49ers, has an impressive track record of fantasy success. The Atlanta FalconsKyle Pitts is arguably the most explosive talent ever at the position. Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is so valued by the organization that he was hit with the franchise tag rather than risk losing him.

2022 fantasy football draft trends

Building that optimal roster means taking advantage of the trends for 2022

Fantasy football isn’t getting any easier between the extra 17th game and losing players to COVID-19. Building that optimal roster means taking advantage of the trends for 2022 and knowing which positions to consider in the early rounds. And even more importantly – when you can reach your favorite player without any cost to your other starters.

The Positions

There is a commonality between all fantasy football drafts, if only because conventional wisdom (AKA last year’s stats) plays a strong role in when players and positions are taken. That allows a reliable way to fill your fantasy roster with the sort of players you want. When you devise a plan to seed different positions in different rounds, you will be better armed to take later advantage of the best player available, especially if he’s “your guy.”

Quarterbacks – Last year’s best quarterback, Josh Allen, kicks off the position usually in the late third round but can drop to the fourth. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert follow in the fifth round. The sixth and seventh rounds become a run and you can expect the Top-10 to be gone by the eighth. That means Trey Lance, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, and Aaron Rodgers is still there in the eighth and ninth rounds.

Decide what level of quarterback you want. After the Top-3, the differences are minimal between the next dozen or so. The later you take your starting quarterback, the earlier you should draft a second one.

Running Backs – Running backs are always popular and 2022 witnesses at least seven taken in the first round and another five or six gone during the second round. Reception points encourage wide receivers to make up almost all other picks in the first two rounds, and if there are no reception points, then running backs go even faster. Your first-round pick should be the most reliable player in your draft.

Those initial running backs contain Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Dalvin Cook. By the second round, the best remaining running backs tend to be D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Javonte Williams, and Leonard Fournette. Each has a characteristic that may keep them from the Top-10, but all have the potential for elite production.

Consider taking two running backs during your first three picks. If you wait until the fourth round, the best remaining backs will be either moderate fantasy scorers or players returning from injury. Travis Etienne, J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, and Elijah Mitchell have upside. There is also equal potential downside. From the fifth round onward, the remaining running backs are either the smaller part of a committee backfield, a third-down back, or injury prone players and the guys that replace them.

Rookie running backs are the crack cocaine of a fantasy football draft. But 2022 served up a less exciting draft class than usual. Breece Hall of the Jets is the only one with a lock on a starting job and still doesn’t go until the mid-third round. Seahawk Kenneth Walker usually ends up in the seventh round, and James Cook in Buffalo and Rachaad White in Tampa Bay last until at least the ninth round as they play behind a starter. Brian Robinson Jr., Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Tyrion Davis-Price, Isaiah Spiller and Tyler Allgeier are fantasy lottery tickets that need to be drafted as just depth.

Wide Receivers – This year differs in that more receivers are going in the earlier rounds. Running backs rule Round One, but an equal number of wideouts are taken from Rounds Two to Four. And then they dominate the picks in Rounds Five and Six.

It is still possible to reach two Top-10 wideouts with your first two picks for a strong start in an inconsistent position. There’s a price to be paid in the quality of running backs, but invariably one or two teams near the end of Round 1 take this path looking for an advantage.

The first three are always a mix of Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase. Six more leave through Round 2 – Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, and Mike Evans.  All difference-makers for a fantasy team.

The fifth round and beyond still holds upside, and many of them will deliver well in advance of their draft slot. This is where the mixture is of top players on their way down, unproven receivers on their way up, or those in new and riskier situations.

Nice finds in the fifth and beyond include DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson, Gabriel Davis, Hunter Renfrow and Amari Cooper. Wideouts are the deepest fantasy position, and it is possible to find suitable starters deeper than any other position.

Rookie wide receivers typically disappoint, but Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith immediately became fantasy starters in 2021. This year is another talented group after six went in the first round of the NFL draft. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks heard their name on Day 1 and are expected to step into starting roles at least by the latter part of the season. Skyy Moore (Chiefs) and Christian Watson (Packers) are notable since they were the only higher draft picks that ended up on an elite passing team.

 Tight Ends –There are always three elite difference-makers and that’s clearly Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Kyle Pitts this year. In most leagues, Andrews and Kelce go in the second round, then Pitts follows a round later. George Kittle and Darren Waller are always another round or so later.

Plan on using a ninth-round pick or earlier if you want a Top-10 tight end. That means settling for Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki as your starter. Or using a sixth or seventh-round pick to grab Dallas Schultz or T.J. Hockenson for at least a minimal advantage within the position.