Fantasy football draft strategy tips and advice – Page 8

First 3 Picks: 10-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

Your first three picks define your fantasy football team. Aside from taking productive players, each pick is critical because the player pool is ever-shrinking. You could build entirely different teams based on what positions you take and in what order. Respecting how drafts typically raid positions improves your chance to build an optimal team. The difference between a 12-team and a 10-team league is that with more fantasy relevant available in a smaller league, the more important to get difference-makers in as many positions as possible. Everyone has a “good” team.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 10-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover almost all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you need after three rounds. Rankings can change daily so these may not exactly match rankings.

Performance scoring league

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are a premium and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable as well. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league. Almost all teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE Travis Kelce, RB Chris Carson

After the obvious first pick, opted for the best tight end for some advantage though less in this scoring format. The No. 13 running back became his RB2 for a safe feel. With 18 picks before he goes again, will need to strongly consider quarterback and wide receiver at the 4.12/5.01 turn.

Team 2: RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Josh Jacobs

A solid start with elite running back and then a top quarterback as well. That made running back feel like a need pick in the third round but sets the team up to go for any position from Round 4 onward. This most honors the scoring scenario. Waiting on a wideout hurts less in this scoring format.

Team 3: RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kenny Golladay, RB Leonard Fournette

Like Team No. 2, opted for that second-round non-running back. Going with the No. 5 wideout is an advantage but less so without the reception point. Picking up the running back in the third completed the backfield, but Barkley is still the only difference maker each week. Has to consider wideout and quarterback soon, while seeding in the occasional running back for depth.

Team 4: RB Derrick Henry, RB Nick Chubb, WR Mike Evans

Went with RB-RB to start and owns one of the better backfields in the league. Still reached the No. 6 wideout in the third so controlling which running back made more sense than worrying about a wideout. Solid start means picking the best player available from here on out.

Team 5: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Julio Jones, RB Austin Ekeler

Continuing the run on running backs, went with an advantage with the No. 4 wideout and then selected his RB2 in the third round for a solid start. While the best advantage is in a lower scoring position with no reception points, this is a solid start and should consider going with more upside picks starting in the fourth round since can go anywhere.

Team 6: WR Michael Thomas, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Robinson II

After five straight running backs, went for the best wideout and then had to go with running back before the position would become a big liability. Opting for the No. 6 wideout isn’t nearly as advantageous in this scoring, but can leave that position alone while filling up on running backs, a quarterback, and maybe even a tight end before worrying about his WR3. A lack of reception points devalues receivers, but they still count as starters and this team can milk more points from the position than most while running backs last longer in smaller leagues.

Team 7: RB Miles Sanders, QB Lamar Jackson, WR A.J. Brown

Starting with a running back was safe and then grabbing the best quarterback will yield an advantage. Opted for WR1 with the No. 8 wideout which certainly gives a balanced beginning and running backs are deeper in a ten-team league. Likely would have been a better net effect with taking a second running back but has a huge advantage at quarterback.

Team 8: RB Kenyan Drake, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Melvin Gordon III

Someone always takes this tact which makes sense only if there is a flex position that allows for three running backs to start. Starting it this late in the first round means that there are no elite players on the roster without getting lucky and landing sleepers. This is better when there are no reception points and it always feels great to have a top backfield. But in a ten-team league, everyone has a good team so the lack of apparent difference-makers will be hard to compensate.

Team 9: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Godwin

Opening with the second-best wideout makes sense this late in the first round even without reception points. Reaching the No. 9 running back prevents a liability there but grabbing the No. 9 wideout loads up on a position with lower-scoring due to the lack of reception point. Goes again in two picks so should consider running back there.

Team 10: WR Davante Adams, RB Joe Mixon, RB James Conner

This is standard for the final pick in a ten-team draft. Ending up with two running backs and a wideout is always solid and gains some advantage with No. 3 wideout than the No. 8 running back in the first but then next pick gets the running back anyway. Also has the next pick up in this league at the 4.01 and can consider any position that stands out and another wideout is likely the biggest value but that third running back is an option if there is a flex position.

Reception-point league

This style of scoring boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks relative to other positions. Running backs are going to be popular in any scoring scenario but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

With a reception point and only ten teams, your roster should look very strong after three picks. All positions are deep in this format.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Austin Ekeler, TE George Kittle

Opened with RB-RB and added the No. 2 tight end for elite players in two positions and a solid backfield. A great start leaves the rest of the way for the best available. This is never a bad path though a smaller league means RB2 quality still exists for another round or so and passed on the No. 6 wideout for the No. 12 running back. Safe pick at the worst.

Team 2:RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Nick Chubb

This could happen in a ten-man league and the path yielded great results with elite players in the two highest-scoring positions. Adding the No. 13 running back also skipped what could have been a difference-making wideout but that position is deep anyway.

Team 3: RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Joe Mixon, WR Allen Robinson II

Solid start with two running backs which leaves the rest of the draft to address other positions. By this point, the top tight ends and quarterbacks are likely gone, so taking a wideout gives good bang for the buck at WR1 even in the third round. Could look to add a Top-4 tight end in the fourth to bolster the positions or at least take another wide receiver.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Kenny Golladay, RB Chris Carson

Standard approach that works well at this slot. The No. 4 running back is followed by the No. 5 wide receiver and then back to running back to complete the backfield. This plan hasn’t yet looked like a top team, but it is not a liability either. A solid start that needs to be followed by strategic choices for the rest of the starters and with an eye for sleeper types.

Team 5: WR Michael Thomas, RB Aaron Jones, WR Mike Evans

Finally, a team stepped outside running back with an obvious choice and then went with the No. 10 running back for his RB1 to prevent liability and then opted to go back and pick up the No. 7 wideout. Strong start for the wide receivers and probably has to consider running back for at least two of the next three rounds but can skip WR3 for many rounds knowing they only need one more starter quality player.

Team 6: RB Alvin Kamara, TE Travis Kelce, RB Leonard Fournette

While they started with yet another running back, was able to land the best tight end for a nice advantage there, and then went the safe route with the No. 15 running back for RB2. The next few rounds should be chasing wideouts with maybe a third running back mixed in along the way.

Team 7: RB Derrick Henry, QB Lamar Jackson, WR DeAndre Hopkins

Yet another running back pick but followed that up with the best quarterback and instead of dipping back into running back like most drafters, opted for the No. 8 wideout instead of the No. 16 rusher. While RB1 isn’t an advantage, he is not a liability either, and taking the quarterback addresses the highest scoring position. For the next many rounds, has to consider wideout and running back and lean more heavily on the rushers before the quality is gone there.

Team 8: RB Miles Sanders, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Chris Godwin

This team looks better than it the plan of RB-RB may work out in this format and league size since both players are high-upside picks. This can work out and adding the No. 9 wideout prevents a hole in the starters. This is a safe route to take and filling it with high upside picks is riskier but the payoff can significant and makes more sense the deeper into the draft they go. Free to pick from any position for the next several rounds.

Team 9: WR Davante Adams, RB Kenyan Drake, WR DJ Moore

Going into the end of the first round, it was a better idea to control their wideout in the first round than to just repeat another running back and let Team 10 take the better receiver. Still reached the No. 8 running back and then opted to fill the core wideouts with No. 10 player knowing that they go again in two picks and will likely address their RB2 then. Just like their first pick, they have to evaluate what Team 10 is likely to do in order to optimize the position they take.

Team 10: WR Julio Jones, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Le’ Veon Bell

Have to love the WR-WR plan at the end of the first round, even more so with reception points that yield a major advantage at wideouts. Going with a running back is needed as well as the 4.01 pick to be prudent. This plan is always a way to counteract the strong showings of early-round drafters by taking the best point producers on the board. Can wait on wideouts a long time with just one more starter needed.

QB-heavy league

This sort of league will seed in quarterbacks in varying measures depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the ability to start two quarterbacks which change drafts significantly. It will extend the quality of running backs and wideouts deeper into the draft since quarterbacks will go far earlier than the mid-draft that is common in other sorts of leagues. This run-through assumes two quarterbacks and that well over half of the starters are taken by the third round.

Viewing the previous year’s results are best for this sort of starting rule because quarterbacks can go slower – or much faster – than what this draft assumes. Keep up with the other picks in the league to make sure you don’t get stuck at the end of a run on quarterbacks.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, TE George Kittle

This is a masterful start and one that is why people hate the first pick teams. Best running back and then the No. 5 quarterback. Instead of a safer pick of running back or wideout, went with the No. 2 tight end for difference-makers in all three selections. Has to chase running backs and wideouts for at least the next five rounds, but has a great core to build upon.

Team 2: RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kenny Golladay, RB Aaron Jones

Started with the elite running back and then grabbed the No. 5 wideout for a great WR1. Opted to play it safe with the No. 10 running back but it gives a good base for a team that can seek to add any position for the next several rounds.

Team 3: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Tyreek Hill, QB Deshaun Watson

Another strong start that honors the format and scoring rules. Elite running back was followed by the No. 4 wideout as WR1 and still reached the No. 6 quarterback in the upper tier. Has to address running backs in at least two of the next three rounds but a balanced start to a formidable team.

Team 4: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Joe Mixon

In this format, taking the No. 1 quarterback at any point is a good pick. That left the team feeling like they had to take running backs to avoid a hole in their starters. This is the most common plan for taking a quarterback first and a reasonable way to build a team in the order of higher scoring positions.

Team 5: RB Dalvin Cook, QB Kyler Murray, RB Austin Ekeler

Sandwiching the No. 4 quarterback between running backs is a safe and effective start even if both backs are likely to be average scorers for their RB1 and RB2 positions as starters. This page homage to the format with that quarterback. The next three rounds have to lean towards wideouts and possibly a tight end.

Team 6: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, RB Nick Chubb

This would be hard to pull off in a larger league but can happen in the ten-man league size. Started with big advantage at quarterback, then went with the best tight end on the board (or in the world, to be realistic). That left the Round 3 pick a need for running back and two of the next three or four rounds should grab more rushers with a wideout or two added in as well. But owning top players in two positions is always an advantage and even more so with tight end since the quality plummets so quickly.

Team 7: WR Michael Thomas, RB Kenyan Drake, QB Matthew Stafford

Finally, the first wideout comes off the board and yields more value than just following the running back or quarterback run. Was able to land the No. 8 running back just to be safe and then took the No. 7 quarterback. This is a balanced start for this format and will need to address running back in the next few rounds. But an even start that leaves the team able to go for best available players.

Team 8: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Julio Jones, WR Allen Robinson II

Opted to start with running back knowing that between two and four will be taken before the 2.03 pick rolls back to them. Then went with the No. 3 and No. 6 wideouts that pay off with receptions points. Strong start for this deep in the first round but now has to use the next three or four rounds for only running backs and quarterbacks. Will need to look more for upside to make up ground in the non-running back positions.

Team 9: RB Derrick Henry, WR Davante Adams, WR Mike Evans

Followed the same path as Team 8 with the same results. Great set of wideouts and a serviceable to good RB1. Team success depends on what they do with the next running backs and a quarterback.

Team 10: QB Dak Prescott, RB Miles Sanders, WR DeAndre Hopkins

For the final pick of the first round, taking a quarterback in this format makes a lot of sense, and opting for a running back just ensures no hole in the starting roster for RB1. That third pick is the defining one and went with the No. 8 wideout. Balanced start and the team owns the next pick that should lean towards running back or could be the No. 9 wideout.

First 3 Picks: 12-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 12-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover almost all leagues.

Performance scoring league

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Allen Robinson

Top running back and quarterback for a great start, then wide receiver with Robinson means a balanced approach and drafter is free to go for best available at least the next two or three rounds. Why take the No. 16 running back when he gets the No. 6 wideout instead? No reception points hurt the wideouts but that doesn’t mean to ignore usually three starting positions.

Team 2: RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Leonard Fournette, WR A.J. Brown

Standard sort of Team 2 approach with a couple of running backs and then a wideout. A core of running backs means could go after other positions for several rounds and not give up too much. Next pick should be a wideout or a top tight end or quarterback if they are still there. Going running back will be tempting and make more sense in this non-PPR league, but again – field the best set of starters possible.

Team 3: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Chris Godwin

Same pattern as Team 2 and probably the standard for this sort of scoring. Free to look at non-running back positions in round four and five unless a back falls in the draft.

Team 4: RB Derrick Henry, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Austin Ekeler

Strong start with a Top-4 running back and then the top quarterback. Went with a second running back in the third round for that comforting, solid feel but now will be chasing wideouts at the least. This scoring supports this sort of plan. Could consider tight end and quarterback next to get better than average players in both positions and then admit your wideouts are going to be weak – but they are the deepest position and produce the most waiver wire finds.

Team 5: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Mike Evans, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

This start would look great if there were reception points but even without them, there is a reason to do this. Sewing up two elite wide receivers is an advantage and can now ignore that position for four or five rounds if they want. They only need one more starter from the rest of the draft and they will last longer in this format anyway. Obviously has to consider running backs in the next round if not two rounds.

Team 6: WR Michael Thomas, RB Chris Carson, RB Melvin Gordon III

This start is likely what will happen in most leagues for the team that selects Michael Thomas (always the first wideout). Great advantage (not as much as PPR but…) and then those two running backs feel more like need picks. But it does allow the next two rounds to consider any position.

Team 7: RB Miles Sanders, WR Kenny Golladay, RB James Conner

Deeper into the draft means while the first pick of a running back is only an average RB1, better-ranked wideouts are available. The price is not that high going running back first to ensure no disadvantage at RB1 and still reached the No. 5 wideout in the second round. Conner in the third round makes sense but so far, this team is starting out with an average RB1, an average WR1, and the No. 18 running back so just an average RB2. Needs to start thinking of getting any advantage at another position that they can.

Team 8: RB Kenyan Drake, RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper

Like Team 7, went for the safe route with the standard RB-RB-WR and ended up with mostly average players in all positions. Does free him to chase the best available players but there are no difference-makers on the team yet unless one exceeds expectations. And still has eight picks until his fourth-round selection, so has to avoid an average team.

Team 9: RB Joe Mixon, TE Travis Kelce, RB Le’ Veon Bell

This isn’t as deadly without reception points but secured a decent RB1 and then snapped up the best tight end. That will hurt the other positions but in a performance league, only the top two or three tight ends offer any real advantage. Went safe again in the third round and will have to consider a wideout in the next couple of rounds. While taking Kelce isn’t nearly the bang for the buck as he is in a PPR league, delaying wideouts in this scoring hurts a lot less.

Team 10: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Aaron Jones, TE Mark Andrews

Certainly paid attention to their draft spot. Went with a top wideout, then still reached the No.11 best running back as a need pick. Went for a difference-maker with the second-best tight end in the third. Not a terrible start but has to consider running backs for the next two rounds and probably get a little lucky or they are at a disadvantage. But drafting later in the round means taking more risks to build an optimal team for that draft slot.

Team 11: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Julio Jones, RB Raheem Mostert

Opting for the No. 9 running back with the first pick felt safe and at least followed that up with an elite wideout. Went back to running back in the third but at least selected a back with more upside than most. And is now free to chase best available. Goes again in two picks and can reach for a great quarterback, tight end, or a good wideout.

Team 12: WR Davante Adams, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Mark Ingram II

This is likely the most generic start at No. 12 in a performance league. Staring RB-RB equates to two average backs. Going with an elite wideout makes sense and then a high-upside running back like Edwards-Helaire is the exact sort of swing for the fence that makes sense (though the rookie is rising in drafts daily). Went back for an average running back but goes again with the next pick and can use that on the best available with a solid core.

Reception-point league

This style of scoring boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks a bit. Running backs are going to be popular in any scoring scenario but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Mike Evans, WR DeAndre Hopkins

This is the very standard opening in a PPR league and with the interest in running backs so strong this year, opted for the No. 7 and No. 8 wideouts instead of the No. 15 running back. Can leave wideouts alone for a long time since likely just need one more as a starter. Should now consider running back at least twice in the next three rounds.

Team 2: RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Chris Godwin

This is another strong opening in this scoring. Elite running back and then an elite quarterback. The third pick for a wideout means a shortage of running backs but like team No. 1, can just get two over the next three rounds. This is why the other drafters hate those with the few first picks.

Team 3: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Allen Robinson II, TE George Kittle

Same variation as the first two teams. Locking up that top running back allows for more freedom and in this case, team went for the No. 6 wideout and then snapped up the second-best tight end. Has to mine for running backs but holds elite starters in both wideout and tight end.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Leonard Fournette

Following on the running back craze still makes sense with Cook turning in receptions as well. Used the second round for the first quarterback taken which is a distinct advantage but always delays all other positions by one round instead of waiting like most teams. Still reached a solid RB2 in the third round. Has to consider at least two wideouts in the next three rounds.

Team 5: WR Michael Thomas, RB Chris Carson, WR DJ Moore

Opting for a wideout in the first round is always discomforting since running backs are all the rage, but Michael Thomas is always the top receiver this year and reception points make this very safe pick a no-brainer. Had to get a running back in the second round though he was the No. 14 rusher taken. Went back to wideout in the third to get better value than just another running back. Will need to look for the RB2 likely next round but can leave wideouts alone while securing more running backs, a quarterback, and maybe a tight end in the next four or five picks.

Team 6: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Nick Chubb, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Doubled up on running back to start for a solid, if unspectacular, start. Still reached enough value in the second round for the No 13 running back to feel right but then went with wideout in the third. Taking a higher upside player there makes some sense to look for some advantage in the position that still matters a lot in the scoring scenario.

Team 7: RB Derrick Henry, RB Austin Ekeler, WR DJ Chark Jr.

Followed the same pattern as Team 6 and as a mid-round drafter, this is the safest feeling path. Locks up very good running backs for a sold fantasy backfield and then opts for a wideout because of the scoring rules and the dwindling supply of them. But free to mix-and-match picks among all positions from here on out.

Team 8: RB Miles Sanders, TE Travis Kelce, RB Le’ Veon Bell

This is very effective, more so with this scoring. Leaned more towards upside backs and sandwiched an absolute advantage with Travis Kelce who may not last this long in a PPR league. But the binge on running backs is causing other positions to fall. Two of the next three picks have to strongly consider wide receiver but if all three players hit as expected, the team has a very nice start from the eight-spot.

Team 9: WR Davante Adams, RB Joe Mixon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

This is another effective plan this late in the first round. Grabs that elite wideout and then still reaches the No. 11 running back with the second pick. Not an advantage but not a liability either. Taking that WR2 in the third round accesses a weaker WR2 than most but going with higher upside and more risk makes sense to make up some ground. Most likely should grab a couple of running backs next or at least over the next three rounds if a quarterback or tight end falls.

Team 10: RB Kenyan Drake, WR Kenny Golladay, RB Josh Jacobs

This is a safer route. Started out RB-WR at the 2.03 turn and then had to wait until the 3.10 for that second running back which works out to the No. 17 taken. This is a safe path to take and honors the scoring. That fourth-round pick coming in five turns can go anywhere and will more determine how the team will fare. Quarterback or tight end there will still yield advantage but at the expense of wideouts.

Team 11: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Aaron Jones, WR A.J. Brown

Starting so deeply in the first round meant taking the No. 9 and then the No. 10 running back. And by this point, the much-hyped rookie may well be gone so the name won’t look nearly so sexy. Just following the running back run twice means that the position won’t be a liability, but it is not going to be an advantage. And in this scoring, only the No. 14 wideout was left to start that position.

Team 12:WR Julio Jones, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Melvin Gordon III

This is one of the most common plans for that final first-round pick. Doubling up on wideouts netted the No. 3 and 4 best players for a huge advantage in that position. Going with a running back in the third is a need pick and means the No. 18 back is your RB1. Should consider running back in the fourth as well and then again at the round 5-6 turn.

QB-heavy league

Viewing the previous year’s results are best for this sort of starting rule because quarterbacks can go slower – or much faster – than what this draft assumes.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Austin Ekeler, QB Deshaun Watson

The natural start is followed by the swing pick-ups of an RB2 and one of the top quarterbacks. The No. 6 quarterback is merely average in most leagues but scores like an elite running back – or better – in this starting aspect. Long wait until Round 5 but can consider any position, including quarterback.

Team 2: RB Saquon Barkley, TE George Kittle, RB Nick Chubb

While this plan ignores the value of quarterbacks, it still starts out with an elite running back and tight end for a definite advantage. Went with running back for the third pick which was certainly a safe option and still netted the No. 13 back because the position falls a bit with these starting rules. Free to go anywhere in their next two picks but should at least consider a quarterback.

Team 3: RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Russell Wilson, WR Allen Robinson II

This is a standard approach in a QB-heavy league with one of the first three picks. Started running back and then still accessed the No. 5 quarterback. Depending on your league, that may be hard to accomplish but any more attention to quarterbacks prior to this pick only means all other positions fall more. The third round was able to reach the No. 6 wide receiver for another advantage. Very solid opening but running backs have to be the focus for the next couple of rounds unless players fall in other positions.

Team 4: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Joe Mixon, WR Mike Evans

Here is where this league starts to differ. After the top three running backs are gone, a quarterback is a natural consideration. Both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are likely first-round picks in this format and may even be in the Top-3 overall picks. This is similar to Team No. 3 only with running back and quarterback reversed. Because quarterbacks take up earlier picks in the first three rounds, quality running backs and wide receivers last longer.

Team 5: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Aaron Jones, QB Matthew Stafford

The plan looked great with two Top-10 running backs but by the third round, seven quarterbacks were gone. This should hold roughly true in most of these sorts of leagues. Waiting on a quarterback until the 4.08 would likely mean outside of the Top-10 for the position and potentially well out of that range. Starting with two Top-10 running backs is a solid start, and picking up a quarterback in the third was as much need as a strategy. The next several rounds have to consider wide receivers and a second quarterback.

Team 6: QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kenny Golladay, WR DeAndre Hopkins

Middle-draft teams have to avoid building an average team and this certainly takes that to heart. Grabbing a quarterback to start is an advantage and then doubling-down on wide receivers netted two Top-8 players. From here until Round 8, running backs and a second quarterback have to be the focus.

Team 7: WR Michael Thomas, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Chris Godwin

This plan does create formidable wide receivers and this format almost always involves reception points as well. While the drafter ignored quarterbacks, making that running back a high upside guy at least makes this feel like a good start. But the problem is that now QB1 and RB2 will be average at best. The team can still recover and build a fine team, but the margin for error is smaller.

Team 8: RB Alvin Kamara, QB Kyler Murray, RB Chris Carson

This is a safe start. Went with the No. 5 running back and managed to access the No. 4 quarterback. There are 15 picks until the team’s third-choice so getting that quarterback there ensures a difference-maker in the highest-scoring position. That third-round pick went with the No. 14 running back over the No. 8 wide receiver but the fourth round selection comes in just eight more turns and can consider wideout or quarterback.

Team 9: RB Derrick Henry, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Leonard Fournette

Opted for the No. 6 running back that fell with two quarterbacks taken. Then a Top-4 wide receiver felt good but delayed the quarterback. Still accessed a solid running back in the third round. This is a safe route, even if it doesn’t pay any homage to the format. Has to consider quarterbacks twice in the next few rounds or have a liability in the highest-scoring position.

Team 10: WR Davante Adams, RB Kenyan Drake, RB Le’ Veon Bell

Team 10 took a similar route as Team 9. Elite wideout and two good running backs with upside will work but again – have to think about two quarterbacks by Round 5 or 6 or even average scoring will be a challenge. This feels safe but the only difference-maker is a wideout – the deepest position.

Team 11: RB Miles Sanders, TE Travis Kelce, QB Carson Wentz

Opting for the No. 7 running back feels safe and grabbing the best tight end is an advantage, even if it is the lowest scoring skill position. Turned to the No. 8 quarterback in the third round but could have also gone running back there and taken the quarterback in the fourth round. Wide receivers are going to be a liability unless team can land a sleeper or two.

Team 12: QB Dak Prescott, WR Julio Jones, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Drafting last usually means taking a chance and this plan is solid. Gets that great quarterback and then doubles-up on wide receivers to get two Top-10 players. The next three rounds have to consider running back and even then, get lucky or have a hole in their starters. But if there are reception points, even running backs are deeper and this can work very well.

Fantasy football best-ball gambles: Wagers of the week

A four-pack of fantasy football best-ball buys for the upcoming week.

Fantasy football best-ball drafts are a blast. My preferred league platforms for these drafts are RTSports.com and SportsHub’s “Best-Ball 10s” services. Neither company sponsored this article … I just like what they do in the space. Check ’em out, or look around the web to find competitors.

Let’s dive right into my four favorite gambles for this upcoming week’s drafting action:

QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Not going in the top 25 quarterbacks, on average, Minshew is the perfect flier in best-ball drafts. He goes later than guys with way less upside (Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Jimmy Garoppolo), and the second-year passer is had with picks later than 14:09, per ADP trends. The Jaguars have a capable receiving crew, led by 2019 breakout DJ Chark Jr., and the 2020 draft added Laviska Shenault Jr. Toss in stable veterans wideouts Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook, in addition to incoming tight end Tyler Eifert, this offense could be dangerous under Jay Gruden’s play-calling. As a No. 2 behind an elite starter, or (better yet) a third QB, Minshew is pure upside with essentially no risk to speak of.

RB Bryce Love, Washington Football Team: In this space a week ago, Love’s rookie backfield mate, Antonio Gibson, received a thumbs up. This time, Love is the late-round gamble worthy of attention. Why both? This backfield is that wide open. Love emerging is two-fold: Either Adrian Peterson has to finally fall off of the fantasy map, or Gibson doesn’t meet expectations as a rookie trying to feel his way through the pandemic. Ten games into his 2018 season, Love blew out his knee after rushing for 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns the prior year, ultimately red-shirting as an NFL rookie in 2019. Gibson is more of a receiving threat than AD or Love, suggesting gamers are better off chancing it on Love and his nearly 14th-round ADP in hopes Father Time finally catches up to Peterson.

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WR Chris Hogan, New York Jets: Remember him? On the receiving end of a whopping 15 targets, leading to eight grabs, in 2019 with the Carolina Panthers, Hogan returns to the AFC East as a Jet. The New York passing game isn’t going to light it up, and Hogan won’t be the savior, but he’s a final-round flier in best-ball drafts. The Jets are starving for someone to step up after Jamison Crowder, and it’s tough to have any more confidence in rookie Denzel Mims and journeyman Breshad Perriman than the well-traveled Hogan. Perhaps the 32-year-old still has a few deep plays left in the old gas tank.

TE Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers: It’s a tad bit curious to see the player likeliest to see the second-most targets in this passing game go undrafted, on average. Fantasy owners may be concerned by his placement on the COVID-19 list, or enough people are holding out hope another player develops into a viable weapon behind Davante Adams. At any rate, the tight end position is prominently featured in this offense, and Sternberger has tremendous potential to fill the obvious void in the aerial attack. His fantasy football needle aimed due north.

Fantasy football best-ball drafts: 4 wagers to make this week

These four fantasy football best-ball gambles will pay off in the long run.

Let’s dive right into my five favorite gambles for this upcoming week’s drafting action:

QB Drew Lock, Denver Broncos: Yes, he lost his starting right tackle to the opt-out, but that’s not as significant as it may seem. Lock still has an emerging WR1 in Courtland Sutton and one of the most polished rookies to come out in recent memory in Jerry Jeudy. While recommending rookies is usually a crapshoot, it is only amplified during the pandemic. Yet, slot receiver KJ Hamler also warrants a mention. His game-breaking speed creates mismatches vs. almost any NFL defender. It’s not hard to tell a rookie to “go” when we’re looking at a guy with world-class speed to burn. An improved backfield and a blossoming TE in Noah Fant make Lock a strong bet for a payoff as QB25 in the ADP charts.

RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team: The rookie has arguably the easiest positional transition from college to the NFL, and the release of Derrius Guice blows the door wide open for Gibson to have a massive role in the backfield. He’s a wide receiver turned running back, much like Ty Montgomery, so catching passes is likely to be the primary means of utilization as he finds his way through the early portion of the season. Adrian Peterson is poised to once again claim the obvious rushing action, although Gibson won’t go down without a fight. Plus, Peterson is ancient no stranger to injuries. Going in the middle of Round 9 for PPR drafters, the Memphis product is an intriguing risk-reward wager.

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TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans: Tight end Delanie Walker is no longer a concern for the first time in Smith’s pro career. The Titans’ system is friendly to the position, and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a former tight ends coach as recently as 2018. It’s fair to say we’ve seen enough of wide receiver Corey Davis to trust he won’t suddenly emerge as a legitimate weapon, and Adam Humphries has exactly one season of productivity to his name, which came in an entirely different offense. The fourth-year Smith is poised to burst onto the season as the No. 2 target for Ryan Tannehill, and gamers are snoozing on Smith as a 14th-round fantasy draft pick. Don’t expect huge volume; rely on Smith’s explosive nature after the catch.

TE Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys: Last year, coming out of retirement, a 400-year-old Jason Witten saw 83 targets in this offense. The ‘Boys feature one of the game’s best running backs and a pair of explosive receivers, but this offense is counting on a rookie in CeeDee Lamb to pick up the slack as the No. 3. In 2020, with the pandemic derailing all semblance of a conventional offseason program, how much do you really trust rookie wideouts, even the best of them? Jarwin is built for best-ball action. There probably won’t be 80 passes coming his way, yet it’s totally conceivable he pops off for a couple of multi-touchdown games or has at least one dynamite effort. He’s the 16th tight end drafted, on average, and that’s pure gravy for a TE2 target in an offense in which defenders can focus on only so many studs.

2020 Fantasy Football: best value buys

Examining the best value buys in fantasy football average draft placement trends.

Everyone playing fantasy football should be looking to land optimal value with each pick, but anyone with experience knows that rarely actually happens. We all have our favorites for whom we’re willing to reach, which tends to drive down the draft stock of other players. As a result, we see trends that produce undervalued fantasy football picks.

In this release, undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. The following players represent the best bang for your buck in relation to their average draft placement (ADP).

Be sure to check out David Dorey’s official positional sleepers and undervalued players breakdown.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.

2020 Fantasy football value buys

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | ADP: 10:03

In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.

The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a viable QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day. Be aware, however, gamers are starting to catch on to his value.

NEW — Jared Goff | Los Angeles Rams | ADP: 13:05

While Goff comes with significant risks, he also is a reasonably sound value as a strong backup to an elite starter, such as Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. One of the advantages of investing highly in a quarterback is not having to come back and spend up on a backup. In fact, many times I’ve advocated to entirely avoid a backup, but it depends upon the owner and situation.

For owners who opt to wait on the position, Goff is a fringe starter when the matchup is right, although it effectively requires a similar investment at the position. Volume alone will carry him most weeks, especially if the mostly untested backfield struggles. The defense is bound to take a step backward by way of personnel losses and the move to an untested, new coordinator, which also suggests more passing.

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Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | ADP: 14:02

Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.

People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason routine and an abbreviated preseason. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.

Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:05

It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.

The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.

Running backs

NEW — Ronald Jones | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 6:05

This one is kind of tricky. Jones was publicly tabbed as the starter, despite the signing of LeSean McCoy and drafting of Ke’Shawn Vaughn. This will be an exceptionally difficult year for rookies, even at running back, although Vaughn wasn’t exactly a slam dunk prior to the McCoy signing. As for the veteran, you can be the judge of whether he has anything left in the tank, but it should be rather telling that McCoy couldn’t even make the active roster during the final weeks of the 2019 season playing under Andy Reid.

Jones suffered through an objectively awful rookie season but managed to turn it around in a respectable way as a sophomore. Year 3 should be even better with a more disciplined offense under quarterback in Tom Brady. The defense is solid enough to keep the offense in games, and Jones has an opportunity to learn from McCoy. Don’t be overly fearful of Shady’s role. Don’t give Vaughn the benefit of the doubt. Trust in Jones’ trajectory, but be prepared to jump ship if his ADP climbs closer to the 40s. Currently, he sits behind major question marks in the ADP pecking order.

Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 8:06

The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.

Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.

NEW — Tarik Cohen | Chicago Bears | ADP: 8:08

The Bears, outside of Allen Robinson, don’t have a great deal of fantasy prospects to be intrigued by on draft day. WR Anthony Miller could step up, but that relies on strong quarterback play from either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles — something most gamers shouldn’t be comfortable banking on. Cohen, even in what was probably a down year by expectations, finished 2019 with only 669 offensive yards and a trio of touchdowns. The silver lining is he landed a career-high 79 receptions, which is what keeps his fantasy football value afloat.

Those 79 receptions realistically could be eclipsed in 2020, and Cohen is worth consideration only in PPR leagues. Let’s say the quarterbacks both struggle, and no receiver steps up to take pressure off of Robinson … that really leaves Cohen as the chief recipient of targets. The arrow aims north and for RB40 in the ADP charts.

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Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | ADP: 10:10

There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload after his COVID-19 diagnosis. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).

Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.

Wide receivers

Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | ADP: 10:07

Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of a conventional offseason layout, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.

The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until the 10th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.

NEW — Christian Kirk | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 10:10

It’s always strange to see incongruent ADP trends within an offense. Quarterback Kyler Murray is going as a top-five passer, and DeAndre Hopkins is a top-three receiver, but Kirk is WR46? Larry Fitzgerald is WR64? There’s no tight end to speak of in this four-wide system. Running back Kenyan Drake caught 28 passes in eight games with Arizona last season. The point being, how can Murray dominate if only Nuk is forecasted to stand out?

Kirk enters Year 3 and is poised to anchor the No. 2 spot ahead of Fitz. Durability is a concern after he has failed to play more than 13 games in his two pro seasons. Kirk averaged 5.2 targets per contest in 2019, and the continuity of the system and quarterback will be a huge help in this pandemic-stricken season. There is plenty of action to go around in an offense that went three- and four-wide 81 percent of its snaps last season. He won’t be a TD machine, nor will Kirk become a guaranteed weekly starter, but the 46th receiver drafted, on average, is at least a flex consideration.

NEW — Golden Tate | New York Giants | ADP: 13:10

Currently, 57 other receivers are being drafted, on average, ahead of Tate, which is pure lunacy. Yes, he’s well-aged for a receiver, turning 32 in early August. He played 11 games for the Giants last season and averaged 14 fantasy point per contest, which tied his second-best weekly rate over 10 years as a pro. Even if someone has concerns about Daniel Jones taking a significant step forward, many gamers are sold on his maturation after a promising rookie campaign. It stands to reason Tate would be a major part of Jones enjoying a breakout second season.

New York has a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett, whose system has proven successful for wideouts in the past. Tate has demonstrated an ability to quickly pick up a new offense more than once. The Giants upgraded defensive personnel, which could lead to less passing, in the best-case scenario. The loss of left tackle Nate Solder is a legit concern, too. However, Tate could be force-fed targets if injuries once again take out Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Tate is a point-per-reception WR3 at a ridiculous value.

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Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: N/A

It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.

Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 67 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.

Tight ends

Mike Gesicki | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 13:03

There’s a natural trajectory developing right before our eyes, and too few early-drafting fantasy footballers aren’t keen to his potential. Gesicki’s rookie season was so disastrous it seemingly has negatively affected his fantasy football perception a great deal. Gesicki was targeted at least six times in 10 of this games last year, landing four or more balls in all but three of them. Following 16 games as a rookie without finding paydirt, Year 2 began with another lengthy scoreless string for the Penn State product. It took Gesicki 25 appearances into his NFL career to find the end zone, but once he did, five touchdowns poured in over the last six games.

The Dolphins will have a new system in 2020 under veteran play-caller Chan Gailey. His system has adapted so many times throughout the years, finding ample work for a tight end on the rise shouldn’t be a concern — especially given all of the questions among the receiving corps. There was obvious chemistry between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gesicki as 2019 closed out. It’s only a matter of time before we see Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, and inexperienced quarterbacks tend to rely on tight ends as a safety blanket. Gesicki is in an intriguing situation to vault from last year’s TE12 to somewhere in the middle of the pack among starters.

Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:03

Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.

In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 20th tight end drafted, which is tremendous value for a possible fantasy starter.

NEW — Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 13:09

It’s not often a backup tight end gets an inclusion in an undervalued players list, but that’s exactly what where Goedert finds himself after a breakthrough 2019 season. He averaged 9.9 PPR points per game as a sophomore, in part because of the rash of injuries Philly faced in the receiving corps. In that context, it’s easy to understand why Goedert went from No. 8 (among tight ends with at least 14 appearances) to ADP TE16.

Zach Ertz is the top dog, but he’s getting up there in tight end years and comes with some durability questions. The Eagles have WR Alshon Jeffery looking at staying on the PUP list to open the year. Wideout Marquise Goodwin opted out of the season, and DeSean Jackson is made of glass. Third-down back Boston Scott is mostly unproven. … As one can see, there are many openings for Goedert to pick up where he left off. Consider him one of the few tight ends worthy of a selection with the intention of playing him as a flex.

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Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston Texans | ADP: 15:02

In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.

Josh Lambo | Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: N/A

Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.

Defense/special teams

Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

The Colts added DeForest Buckner to shore up the front line, especially against the run. He adds a significant help in reaching the quarterback, too, having recorded 19.5 sacks in the last two years combined. The linebacking corps returns intact and healthy, which will be the key to steering this defense’s fantasy fortunes one way or the other. In the secondary, veterans T.J. Carrie (Browns) and Xavier Rhodes (Vikings) come over to bolster a pair of young safeties. Rhodes endured a rocky 2019 but shouldn’t be totally written off yet. Second-year corner Rock Ya-Sin figures to only be better. The schedule is quite reasonable, and this division has undergone significant enough changes to suggest there’s some upside in facing Jacksonville (young QB, new offense) and Houston (major RB and WR moves) twice apiece.

New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.

Warming up to these 3 fantasy football draft picks

Taking a second look at a trio of fantasy football picks.

Over the past few months, several fantasy football draft choices haven’t exactly resonated with me, but I am finding myself warming up to them for varying reasons.

One key attribute successful fantasy football gamers exhibit over the course of the long haul is flexibility in their perception of players. Two years ago, I entered the early draft season not all that high on Patrick Mahomes, but more investigation led me to flip a 180 and include him in my sleepers list. We all saw how his season turned out. That wasn’t written to pat myself on the back but rather to illustrate how it’s so easy to get caught up in positive and negative perceptions of situations and/or players themselves. We all need our own occasional reality check.

In 2020, the fear of COVID-19 infecting a player (or several) on a team at any given moment means drafters must be more willing than ever to consider flexibility as one of our chief tools in the box. Being able to pivot in a moment’s notice now is critical beyond our wildest imagination in relation to this time last year.

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers: Don’t get me wrong, he’s a game manager by nature. It was on full display in all but one of his games with the 2019 New Orleans Saints and that impressive cast of weapons. But that was last year, and we never really saw a full year of a seasoned veteran version of him prior to joining the Saints.

At any rate, Carolina has a lousy defense, and this team underwent a regime change to a first-time NFL head coach and rookie playcaller combo. The weaponry is three-deep at wideout with players who can start for just about every team in the league, and the offensive line has seen a slight improvement over the offseason. Christian McCaffrey is the best the game has to offer out of the backfield, as well. Increased volume is good and bad. There will be bumps, but Bridgewater officially has my attention as a backup to an elite starter and in best-ball leagues because of the opportunity to sling it more than ever.

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WR Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans: The well-traveled wideout and I have experienced a mixed history in recent years. A few months ago, skepticism overshadowed my overall views of him. Last year, he was a major disappointment, largely due to fighting injuries. The entire Los Angeles Rams offense was embattled in an uphill fight in 2019. Houston’s offense desperately needs someone to step up to replace DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson is an upgrade in many ways over Jared Goff.

Working in Cooks’ favor during this funky offseason, he has excelled immediately everywhere he has played. In the four seasons (three different teams) before 2019, Cooks was good for at least 65 receptions, 1,082 yards and five scores. He averaged at least 15 PPR points per game in three of those four campaigns. In other words, Cooks has earned the benefit of the doubt, and I’m loving the value in drafting him near his WR31 spot in the ADP charts.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints: My gut reaction was gamers would overvalue the veteran once Sanders signed in free agency. It was shaping up to be the case early on, but the script has flipped. He’s going, on average, as the 39th receiver in PPR, checking in as a marked value in Round 9. Sanders is a Michael Thomas injury away from being the top dog in an exceptional fantasy passing factory, and even with Thomas staying healthy, there are plenty of paths to success more often than not.

Sanders overcame a torn Achilles tendon in 2018 and actually increased his yards-per-reception average in 2019 to its highest figure since 2015. He, too, picked up the offense in San Francisco in a hurry following a midseason trade. After suffering through suspect QB play in recent years, connecting on passes from Drew Brees makes Sanders more intriguing in best-ball leagues and as a weekly matchup play, predominantly due to there being so many mouths to feed in this system.

Fantasy football best-ball drafts: 5 late-round gambles

Target these five players late in best-ball fantasy football drafts this upcoming week.

Let’s dive right into my five favorite gambles for this upcoming week’s drafting action:

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers: If there ever was a draft format built for Bridgewater … He’s a game manager who is capable of popping off once in a while. The Panthers essentially sport an entirely new defense, one that is woefully inexperienced. That translates to more passing than has been asked of him in prior stops. Carolina sports three very capable *veteran* receivers, plus the best pass-catching (and arguably overall) running back in the game today. An average draft position of 14:11 is awesome value for a backup to an elite, like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, and Teddy B. is an ideal No. 3 for teams drafting a duo of lesser starters.

RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: The second-year Alabama standout should get a chance to showcase his skills in training camp as presumed starter Sony Michel is poised to miss time after foot surgery in May. Being this is the Patriots, we’ll never actually know the severity of the injury or Michel’s true prognosis, so we’re taking an educated guess here. After two respectable but mostly unspectacular seasons, Michel isn’t a lock as the incumbent starter if Harris lights it up in camp. Take full advantage of Harris’ 12th-round ADP before it is no longer a value.

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RB Darrynton Evans, Tennessee Titans: With an ADP of 14:06, the Appalachian State rookie sits directly behind Derrick Henry and is an obvious handcuff. Sneaky gamers will snatch him before Henry owners secure their insurance policy. Think of how the Titans operate offensively. Everything the team does revolves around Henry and the running game. While the passing share would uptick slightly, there’s no denying Evans would become a top-tier fantasy addition if King Henry is dethroned.

WR Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Aside from Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers’ receiving corps has a prominent role to be seized. Lazard showed a hint of chemistry with No. 12 in 2019, and the 6-foot-4 Lazard was good for a line of 35-477-3 on 52 targets, gaining much-needed experience after seeing action in exactly one game as a 2018 rookie. Lazard sees less competition with Devin Funchess opting out, and unless something goes south, 100 targets sent to the guy opposite Adams is not too much to expect.

WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Days of 100-plus catches are behind the future Hall of Famer, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to be put out to the fantasy pasture. Fitz landed a serviceable 75 balls for 804 yards and four scores will seeing most of the defensive attention in Kyler Murray’s first season. In Year 2, DeAndre Hopkins will be the top target, and Murray should take a major step forward. Fitz may not be a sexy pick, but he offers useful value as WR63 in ADP.

Fantasy football best-ball draft recap: Which bets will pay off?

A mid-draft catastrophe struck. Did my drafting overcome the error?

Note: Each week I’ll be diving into a new best-ball fantasy football draft to showcase what gamers can expect, and hopefully encourage some betting enthusiasts to test their skills in a different way. As explained below, in best-ball drafting, there are ample similarities to sports betting.

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across America and the globe, almost all of our preferred pastimes have been put on hold, at least when it comes to team sports. There are plans in place for all four major American team sports to resume fairly soon, although much uncertainty remains.

During this time, fantasy sports and betting enthusiasts are either looking to satisfy their hunger by playing daily fantasy golf or even dipping into the NASCAR pond, but we still can get our kicks by drafting season-long fantasy football teams in the form of best-ball competitions.

How it works

No roster adjustments are needed after the team is assembled, and gamers can draft either the old-fashioned way or with a slow-draft format that notifies them when it’s their turn to pick within an allotted time (usually around four hours).

Many services offer these contests, and I recently drafted my first 2020 best-ball roster. I’ve done hundreds of these drafts throughout the years, but the cloudy outlook of whether we even will have an NFL season had me pumping the brakes this offseason. Rather than going all in, my current intentions are to draft a team or two per week until we have rock-solid confirmation the NFL season will go on as scheduled.

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Benefits of drafting a best-ball team include practice in dozens of ways, scratching that sports itch, experiencing a number of draft placements, trying out new strategies, and — everyone’s favorite — winning money. There are so many advantages to practicing, and I’m a firm believer that gamers of all skill levels need to stay fresh. It’s rewarding to track your teams based on when you drafted them, which is why I name all of my teams by date. It is easy to then look back at how one’s drafting skills evolved over the offseason.

Usually, I’ve drafted dozens of teams by now, so this year’s results won’t offer quite as long of a runway for evaluation purposes. Even still, it is, in a sense, gambling on your own abilities to draft the winning roster. For anyone missing fantasy football and betting, combine them with a best-ball draft. Essentially, it is like placing the bet on yourself! Sure, it’s not the nearly instant gratification of DFS or actual betting, but there’s a risk-reward component that comes with a tangible prize for being right.

Unlike traditional leagues with inseason roster adjustments, gamers in best-ball setups are putting all of their eggs in one’s ability to draft. And make no mistake about it, drafting is vastly different from the spring to the middle of the summer and into the waning weeks before the season kicks off.

Each decision is a mini gamble

In the Tuesday, July 21, draft, I picked seventh in a 12-team, PPR format that requires 1-2-3-1 for skill positions, plus a flex, and no kicker. Each team drafts at least one defense. Being that it is best-ball, it’s wise to take two defensive units, but since they don’t get injured like an individual player, I’m not keen on taking more than two. Quarterback and tight end, however, are positions in which I enter the draft with three-deep in mind at each position. It doesn’t take much to be left without a QB or TE if bye weeks and injuries/demotions conspire against your draft plans. It figures to be even worse in the season of COVID-19. But there’s another gamble to be had in skimping on depth to build elsewhere.

Running backs and receivers, of course, require owners to draft for depth. And, since there isn’t any management beyond the selection of these players, it’s even more important to blend upside with proven playmakers than in conventional leagues.

My latest team

In last week’s draft, two owners didn’t show and were replaced by AI. This time, only one team was commanded by a fake drafter, and it did remarkably well — quick selections, smart picks. Kind of a strong team, really.

Drafting out of the ninth spot this time, running back was my focus. It came down to the decision between the Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb and … Nick Chubb. I really didn’t see another player that did it for me without reaching. Going wideout this early isn’t my thing, either, unless Michael Thomas somehow falls.

The second pick had me focused on Las Vegas Raiders back Josh Jacobs. I’m convinced he’ll break out in 2020 and enter the ranks of elite fantasy performers after an awfully strong rookie season. Alas, he went one spot before me, leading to a fine consolation prize in Miles Sanders — another one of my favorite breakout candidates.

The next two picks were wide receivers — two of the top youngsters at the position in Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown. I’m more than comfortable with both of them leading the offense. Brief contemplation went into Adam Thielen, and not taking Calvin Ridley here may come back to haunt me, but I’m 100 percent in on Brown ascending to borderline WR1 status in his second year. Many of the hallmarks of being an elite receiving option are present in Brown’s situation, including limited competition among his positional mates, a quarterback with a preference for him, a system that fits his style of play, and passing the eye test.

Here’s the thing — this is where the gambling on yourself ultimately is on full display — sometimes a player jumps off of the screen at you, but putting a finger on exactly why is tough. Brown is one of those guys for me. Maybe it’s that he reminds me of several fantasy studs from years gone by, but there’s an “it factor” that stands out. Some players have a visible swagger, and others do it in more of a blue-collar fashion. He’s the latter for me, and strides are in his 2020 future. This is an example of putting your money where your mouth is, in terms of player evaluation.

Another gamble was made in drafting Raheem Mostert. His game is ideal for the one-cut-and-go zone-blocking system. He’s tough and has a chip on his shoulder. The contractual stuff appears to be working itself out, and none of the other backs that were still available offered the same risk-reward ratio in my favor. Again, smart bets on your ability to judge a situation are were the gambles should be made in best-ball.

Michael Gallup, in a best-ball format, is the ideal WR3. In the event Amari Cooper gets hurt, Dallas has a legit No. 1 opportunity for Gallup, and the blossoming wideout proved more than capable of shining for fantasy owners when Coop was healthy.

The next pick, Round 7, left me bitter and jaded. Everything was falling into place, the draft humming along nicely, and then my internet decided to die … mere seconds before my pick was about to go on the clock. The autopick kicked in before I was able to get back online with my phone to make a selection. Diontae Johnson is my favorite sleeper receiver in 2020, and he was available, much to my delight. Of course, the system didn’t give me Johnson but instead Tyler Boyd was added to my team. Not a fan. And, of course, Johnson went four picks later. There’s nothing to be done but live with the selection. It always could have been worse than Boyd, and I’m sure some people will feel he’s a better choice than Johnson, which doesn’t make me any less frustrated.

The addition of Tony Pollard could be worthwhile gamble; he showed his chops last year and is a stud fantasy back if Ezekiel Elliott goes down. Drew Brees was my 11th-round pick, and his age makes the future Hall of Famer risky — so I immediately backed him up with Matthew Stafford. And that’s what has to be done when you’re chancing a starting spot on an old-timer. The rest of the draft was littered with gambles: WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Jace Sternberger, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Parris Campbell, RB Damien Harris … all of these guys aren’t exactly what you’d call safe depth. To reiterate, these are the types of gambles that pay off or break your team. Sure, they’re all depth, but in the year of COVID-19, who knows how many of these guys could be counted on as lineup fixtures. That said, all of them have clear paths to meaningful playing time.

I’ll be back next week to examine another draft to examine which gambles will likely pay off once the real thing is back on the field. There’s definitely a correlation to sports betting, albeit less than in DFS, due to the timeliness of the pay-off. I’m confident anyone who hasn’t tried best-ball will enjoy it.

Get in on the action and draft your own! My preferred league platforms for these drafts are RTSports.com and SportsHub’s “Best-Ball 10s” services. Neither company sponsored this article … I just like what they do in the space. Check ’em out, or look around the web to find competitors.