Category: Buckeyes Wire

USA TODAY still has Ohio State as No. 1 in its weekly re-rank

USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg continues to believe that Ohio State is the best team in the country after it disposed of Penn State Saturday.

We’ve been following the USA TODAY re-rank column almost all season now. We’re happy to report that Paul Myerberg came to his senses just a few games into the 2019 season and has had Ohio State “re-ranked” at No. 1 almost each and every week, except for the one week after LSU beat Alabama.

The Buckeyes though were quickly put back in the top spot after the Tigers’ defense looked more suspect than a masked robber. OSU has remained there the last couple of weeks, including with the newest re-ranking.

Though Ohio State may have shown some issues with turnovers against Penn State, Myerberg believes the win over a top ten team solidifies the Buckeyes as the top team in the country for now.

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LSU continues to be No. 2 followed by Clemson (3), Alabama (4), and Georgia (5) to round out the top five. Here’s how the top ten looks like according to Myerberg:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Utah
7. Minnesota
8. Oklahoma
9. Baylor
10. Penn State.

Ohio State of course has the big one against Michigan this weekend. A win would likely keep it No. 1 according to the re-rank. A loss, well — let’s just not even go there.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan roundtable preview: Breaking down The Game across enemy lines

We participated in a roundtable preview and discussion with other Michigan and Ohio State writers on The Game. Here’s where it all went.

It’s Ohio State vs. Michigan week and although that means both fan bases are likely trading barbs and toilet papering each others’ houses, we in the media try to keep it a little more civil.

On that note, we worked with one of our sister sites Wolverines Wire to discuss this year’s version of The Game. We encourage you to read the original roundtable and breakdown of The Game for yourself, and if you’re a Michigan fan, we encourage you to follow and keep tabs on Wolverines Wire. There’s great content and insight I find helpful even for an Ohio State site because, well — let’s be honest, both programs are always keeping tabs on the other from afar.

But back to the arena.

From the Ohio State side, the discussion involved  myself here at Buckeyes Wire. The maize and blue side of things were covered by the Wolverines Wire’s Isaiah Hole, Brandon Knapp and Matthew Lounsberry. Then, we had the sensible and unbiased mediator in the form of College Football News’ Pete Fiutak to bring it all together so that a scrum didn’t break out virtually.

So, off we go …

Michigan wins if…

Pete Fiutak, College Football News

It starts forcing mistakes right away and is fearless.

The pressure is ALL on Ohio State – it’s supposed to win this thing in a walk. Penn State had its chances last week to take control of the game – even though it was getting dominated – but didn’t have the ability to do it. However – even though the Nittany Lions beat the Wolverines – Michigan is playing better and at this point is the better team. Justin Fields was fine when hit with adversity, but it’s not like Ohio State was really in trouble. There’s still a bit of a “prove it” factor in the really, really big games with everything on the line.

Matthew Lounsberry, WolverinesWire

The key to a Michigan victory is keeping quarterback Shea Patterson upright and allowing him time to find his receivers. The Wolverines have weapons on the outside in Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Ronnie Bell and others. If has time to throw, those receivers are talented enough to make big plays.

Additionally, defensive coordinator Don Brown must show he’s got answers for Ohio State’s explosive offense. Michigan’s defense was shredded last season. The Wolverines have shown different looks this season to combat some of the ways the Buckeyes attacked them last year, but Ohio State will have seen those adjustments on film. Brown has to have contingencies ready this season.

Brandon Knapp, WolverinesWire

Michigan has to own the football like it’s theirs and they don’t want the Buckeyes to play. If Michigan can control the TOP and not just by a few minutes, but by 10+ minutes then they can win this game.

Having the No. 1 defense on the field for as long as possible can drain them and eventually wear them down to where they can’t keep up to the Michigan offense. While Michigan’s offense will be tired too, that means the defense will be fresh and ready to stop the Buckeyes offense.

Phil Harrison, BuckeyesWire

It absolutely has to limit the Justin Fields in the running game.

If you know the history of this rivalry, the team that wins the running battle in late November almost always comes away the victor (no pun intended there). But it’s especially important for Michigan to make life difficult on not only J.K. Dobbins, but most importantly Justin Fields. That’s because unlike last year, things start with the rushing game for OSU this year. The Buckeyes are fourth in the country in yards per game behind just the three service academies and still looked to get things crankin’ on the ground against a stout Penn State defense by calling more QB-runs for Fields. You can bet it’ll be the same in this one, and those key chain moving plays are going to be huge.

Isaiah Hole, WolverinesWire

Michigan plays at a consistent high-level throughout the game. That means keeping Ohio State off-balance on both sides of the ball.

The Wolverines have to stay aggressive on defense, especially considering OSU is 83rd in the country in sacks allowed. Forcing Fields into obvious passing downs and getting off the field on third down will be imperative. In a game like this, despite the threats downfield, stopping the run is more important than the pass. OSU is more dominant in time of possession than a year ago, and it can run the clock if it wants to, given its diversity with Fields, J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague.

On the other side of the ball, the offense has to take what is given. It might not be much, given OSU’s stout defense, but Michigan has shown over the course of the last few weeks that it can run the ball well and pass it effectively. If the Buckeyes allow the pass, do that, but don’t become one-dimensional. They can’t rely solely on one aspect over the other, there has to be balance, unless there’s a yet-undiscovered fatal flaw that can be exploited. Perhaps the X-factor on that side is QB Shea Patterson and his ability to keep the ball on the zone-read. We haven’t seen it much lately, but it feels like Michigan has been holding that back for this game.

Finally, Michigan cannot turn the ball over, and probably will need at least one to win the game. A single turnover in a game like this could be devastating, and Michigan needs to win that battle this time around.

NEXT: Ohio State wins if…
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Big Ten and big game NCAA football 2019 expert picks and predictions for week 14

Our staff picks all the Big Ten and huge college football games straight up and against the spread for the last week of the regular season.

It’s officially the last regular season week of college football. We now know what’s at stake for most games around the country. It could be argued that this is the best week of every season with all the rivalries and implications at stake.

As normal, we’re predicting every Big Ten game for the week straight-up and against the spread, but since the slate is dominated by conference play at the end of things, we’ll do the same for the six games deemed to be the biggest nationally each week. We’re the judge and jury on that one. It’s called our Pick Six.

A a reminder, if there’s an *next to the pick, that means the team will win, but not cover. Also, we get our odds from BetMGM.

INSTRUCTIONS: Make your pick against the spread. For example …
– If you think Ohio State will win -3.5 over Michigan: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win outright: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win, but NOT cover: OSU*
– If there’s a tie, George Washington settles it via the ‘ole quarter coin-flip.

Here we go for a big week fourteen, but first, the standings that will be updated each week after all the games. Onward we go. Just keep picking, just keep picking …

RESULTS SO FAR

@PhilHarrisonBW: 125-32 SU, 75-82 ATS
@yesh222: 118-39 SU, 86-71 ATS
@MarkRussell1975: 126-31 SU, 93-64 ATS
@BrentReeves: 120-37 SU, 83-74 ATS
@SirBrockNetter: 123-34 SU, 75-82 ATS
@JaxFryburger: 123-34 SU, 85-72 ATS
CONSENSUS PICK: 125-32 SU, 91-66 ATS

First up … Big Ten early games

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Ohio State Football: 5 CFP Scenarios to keep an eye on

Ohio State Football will likely make it into the College Football Playoffs, but there are still important scenarios to keep an eye on.

The Ohio State football team has a good shot at making it into the College Football Playoff as long as it takes care of business. Recently returning to the top overall seed, committee members saw a terrible Buckeye performance still turn a dominant win on the scoreboard against Penn State.

With the win, the Buckeyes pushed their record to 11-0. They were able to take down the Nittany Lions behind outstanding performance from DE Chase Young and company, and running back J.K. Dobbins.

Young totaled three sacks and a career-high nine tackles, harassing the quarterback on almost every dropback. Dobbins put up 157 yards and two scores against one of the best rushing defenses in the nation.

Now with wins over Wisconsin, Penn State and Cincinnati (beating the one-loss Bearcats by 42), OSU has to finish the season out with Michigan and then the Big Ten Championship Game, already having clinched the Big Ten East and a bid to Indy.

For CFP implications, their matchup with a red-hot Michigan may not matter much. However, for pride, it almost matters more than any other thing this season can offer.

That said, let’s dive into five scenarios that you’ll want to watch for as we enter the home stretch of games.

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Week 14 College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s No. 4?

As the college football season winds down, let’s look at the resumes of the remaining contenders for the College Football Playoff.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 11 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 11 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you (plus one extra). We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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Ohio State Football: Chase Young, J.K. Dobbins named Big Ten Player of the Week

Chase Young and J.K. Dobbins, following a 28-17 victory over the No. 8 Penn State, were both named Big Ten Player of the Week.

Chase Young and J.K. Dobbins, following a 28-17 victory over the No. 8 ranked Penn State, were both named Big Ten Player of the Week, along with Michigan’s Shea Patterson.

Young, who was awarded the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week, managed a career-high nine tackles. He also set the Ohio State single-season sack record, with three against Penn State to push his season total to 16.5.

A consensus top-three overall pick, Young has been one of the most dominant players in college football and is up for year-end awards as the nation’s best defender and player.

As for J.K. Dobbins, he’ll be splitting the honor of Offensive Player of the Week with Michigan’s Shea Patterson. Dobbins looked unstoppable on Saturday, running for over 150 yards and two scores against one of the country’s best run defenses.

Had the bulk of Ohio State’s games been close in the fourth quarter, we may be talking about him in the driver’s seat to secure the single-season rushing record. Sadly, that won’t likely happen.

Through 11 games, Dobbins already has a career-high 1,446 yards. He’s also three yards shy of 1,600 all-purpose yards. He’s been a quality every-down back when Ohio State has needed him the most.

Both Dobbins and Young need to replicate the performance they had against Penn State this upcoming Saturday as Ohio State travels to Michigan.

Rivalry week is upon us, and it’s only fitting Young and Dobbins shine on what most Ohio State fans will consider to be the biggest game yet this season.

What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Back to normal

A look back at what the College Football Playoff selection committee taught us in its fourth rankings of the year.

With very limited exceptions, the College Football Playoff selection committee has been consistent over the last few years about a few things. One of those is the fact that, especially as we get later in the season, Power 5 teams are ranked in order of number of losses.

So far this year, that wasn’t true. The selection committee consistently had Baylor ranked below several two-loss teams. The reason given by Rob Mullens was that the Bears played an atrocious nonconference schedule. On top of that, I am sure that Baylor consistently barely beating weaker teams was also a factor. Well, after blowing out Texas, the committee finally put Baylor where it belongs–as the lowest-ranked one-loss Power 5 team.

There is a decent case to be made that Baylor belongs behind Florida or Penn State. The SOS is still terrible, and the advanced metrics aren’t particularly kind to the Bears either. Remember, though, the only time the CFP committee has ever had a two-loss P5 team ahead of a one-loss P5 team at the end of the season was in 2015–when 11-2 Pac 12 champion Stanford, who played the toughest schedule in the country, finished ahead of 11-1 Ohio State, who only had one win against a quality team.

The only exceptions to this rule right now are Auburn being ahead of Notre Dame, and Iowa State and USC (with four losses each) are ahead of three-loss Virginia Tech and unranked Virginia. Seeing as the resumes of both Virginia teams are incredibly weak, it makes perfect sense.

Ohio State vs LSU at the top

In an ultimately meaningless decision, the selection committee moved Ohio State back over LSU. The Tigers still have slightly higher-quality wins and a slightly better resume, but the committee felt that Ohio State was more of a “complete team,” and that LSU’s struggles on defense sometimes are why the Buckeyes are in front right now.

Remember, though, this still doesn’t mean anything. If the Ohio State defense struggles against Michigan (or in the Big Ten Championship Game), the committee can just always flip the teams again. Ohio State’s two remaining games are tougher than LSU’s, but not by much. A win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game could easily bump LSU back over the Buckeyes, especially a convincing one.

This will only matter when determining the semifinal opponents. Everyone assumes that Clemson will be No. 3 in two weeks, but crazier things have happened. Clemson can lose a game–or LSU can. Or the committee could be impressed enough with a 12-1 Oklahoma team with four ranked wins to jump the Sooners over a Clemson team with, at most, one ranked win. (That seems unlikely, but we’ve definitely seen stranger things happen.)

The committee will make its final decisions a week from Sunday. We look at the rankings until then to try to see what the voters value and how they look at teams. But picking who is No. 1 between the two far-and-away best resumes in the country is just splitting hairs. The hairs will continue to be split until the end of the season, and it could easily go either way.

Change at the bottom

The committee still seems to be enamored with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are having a great year, but they have no wins of any note. The best win is over South Carolina (or maybe Louisiana). Compare that, for example, to a Navy team that has beaten SMU and Air Force, and only lost to ranked Memphis and Notre Dame.

With SMU’s loss, Virginia Tech did manage to jump into the rankings, and over Appalachian State on top of that. This marks only the second time this year that an ACC team other than Clemson has been ranked.

Other than that, the only other changes were Penn State (a little) and Oregon (a lot) dropping for picking up losses. The committee claims to start with a blank sheet and re-rank teams every week. But with resumes constantly changing, you would think that we would see at least one team shift position other than due to losses. Maybe the committee is honestly coming to the exact same conclusions every week, but it definitely looks like the voters are starting based on what they had last week, not from scratch.

Lastly, it is noteworthy that Oregon landed right in front of Auburn. Auburn does have three losses, but all are to teams ranked ahead of Oregon. Remember, Auburn beat Oregon in Week 1. Rob Mullens isn’t in the room for Oregon discussions, and no one asked for or received an explanation of this ranking. It is very interesting, though, that for a committee that mostly prioritizes head-to-head, Auburn and Oregon were directly compared and the voters chose the team that lost their head-to-head matchup.

Ohio State vs. Penn State second most watched college football game all season

According to a press release from FOX, Ohio State’s win over Penn State was the second most watched college football game of 2019.

There’s no way around it. FOX’s decision to move its biggest game of the day to the Noon slot has been widely successful. The numbers pouring in this season so far have been very positive, especially when it comes to Ohio State.

Now we have another. According to a press release from the network, Ohio State’s game against Penn State last weekend was the most watched telecast of the day, and the second-most college football game over any network this season behind the game between Alabama and LSU on CBS November 9.

According to the release, FOX’s move to the Noon slot has resulted in the network’s most watched college football season to date, up 17 percent from just a season ago.

This isn’t the first time a Noon Ohio State game has garnered a large audience during FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff window. Games against Wisconsin and week one against FAU also saw people turn on their television sets and streaming devices.

Now, don’t be surprised if the one this Saturday between Ohio State and Michigan breaks all those records. It’s at Noon and on FOX as well. In fact, I’d lay money on it. The Game is historically one of the most viewed college football games annually no matter which network it’s on.

What the College Football Committee said about Ohio State after the 4th set of CFP Rankings

Ohio State is the new No. 1 team according to the fourth release of the College Football Playoff Rankings. Here’s what the committee said.

The latest College Football Playoff Rankings are out and there’s a new No. 1, your Ohio State Buckeyes. It’s the second time OSU has topped the poll after it was the top ranked team during the first release of 2019.

Each week, after the rankings are revealed, the CFP Committee holds a teleconference for select media members to answer questions about the discussions and process used to rank the teams into their respective slots.

We’re a part of those and we’d like to pass on what the Playoff Selection Committee Chair Rob Mullens had to say about Ohio State. So, here goes after the fourth release …

On the overall comments from the selection committee on the Buckeyes:

Ohio State has been a complete team all year, and their win against Penn State impressed the committee. They are ranked No. 1.

On what tells the committee Ohio State is a more complete team than anyone else:

Question from the media: You mentioned a couple times now about the
idea of the complete team that the committee sees Ohio State being. In what way is the committee sort of quantifying that? What is telling this committee
that Ohio State is a more complete team than anyone else?

ROB MULLENS: Competing consistently and really highly ranked on offense and defense, performing at a high level in both.

Follow Up Question: Do you guys correct that for strength of schedule, too? Is it relative to who they played? How are you guys measuring that?

ROB MULLENS: Sure, we see it all. We see the full resume, and there are relative statistics, as well.

Another Follow Up Question: Just to follow up on that, what was the difference, though, this week about Ohio State that put them over LSU because you have said that they’ve been a complete team all season.

ROB MULLENS: They have, but they added their third win against a ranked opponent over Penn State, who we have ranked No. 10.

On comparing teams despite the difference in strength of schedules:

Question from the media: You’ve got a few comparisons throughout the poll of teams that clearly don’t have as many good wins, top-25 wins as somebody that’s fairly comparable, but they’ve been much more dominant
than the teams that do have those quality wins. How do you gauge and judge that dichotomy, where you’ve got a team that’s played maybe a better schedule but has not been as dominant to the team that maybe didn’t?

ROB MULLENS: Well, it’s never just one factor. That’s the beauty of having 13 football experts in the room who watch the games, who study it. That’s exactly the kind of conversation that you would have. Who are the wins against, who are the losses against, and then what do you see when you watch the games.

On the committee’s evaluation of offense vs. defense:

Question from the media:You were just speaking about complete teams and using offensive and defensive statistics as a way to measure that. I was just wondering, does the committee look at offensive statistics and defensive statistics any differently? Do they favor one or the other? Do they view if a team has a weaker defense more favorably than a weaker offense, if you follow what I’m saying?

ROB MULLENS: No, we look at them all equally. And again, that’s just one piece of what we look at. We do watch the games. We see the full resume. We understand who they’ve played, the results. That’s just one piece of it. But no, we don’t favor one or the other.

On how the committee views rivalry games:

Question from the media: How does the committee view rivalry games? Do
you look at them through the same contest that you would just a regular game or do you take that into account when you’re grading a team based on performance in one of those?

ROB MULLENS: No, we look at it as a regular game. Obviously we understand where it’s played, whether it’s home or on the road.

Next … Rivalry games and Ohio State vs. LSU

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College Football Playoff Rankings now have Ohio State at No. 1

The newest release of the College Football Rankings have Ohio State back on top at No. 1.

We’ve got our fourth release of the College Football Playoff Rankings, and for the second time, Ohio State is the new No. 1.

After appearing in the top spot in the first set of rankings this year, LSU supplanted the Buckeyes after beating Alabama and stayed there until now. Apparently, this committee is putting a premium on resume over metrics and the eyeball test, and with Ohio State beating a top ten ranked Penn State team, it was enough to vault OSU back on top.

Ohio State is followed by LSU at No. 2, then Clemson, Georgia, and Alabama to round out the top five. Utah sits just outside the top five, ready to pounce at No. 6. Here’s the complete top ten.

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Utah
7. Oklahoma
8. Minnesota
9. Baylor
10. Penn State

Ohio Sate next takes on No. 13 Michigan and then will head to the Big Ten Championship Game to play either Wisconsin or Minnesota.