Category: Buckeyes Wire

Week 15 College Football Bowl Projections

With just the conference championship games remaining, our Bowl Projections look at how all teams currently stand in the bowl picture.

Welcome to the second-to-last set of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.

I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.

My final set of bowl projections will come out on Saturday night, right after the games end. Those might look very different than these, depending on what happens Saturday. (For example, there are currently two SEC teams in the Playoff. That will almost certainly no longer be true if LSU beats Georgia.)

Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences often have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections on Saturday night will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl and that the Bahamas Bowl will be Buffalo against Charlotte.)

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Clemson
Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Georgia

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so Ohio State will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Georgia will likely be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

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How was Chase Young was not unanimously chosen as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year?

Ohio State’s Chase Young was named B1G Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Lineman of the Year, but it wasn’t unanimous.

Ohio State’s Chase Young was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Lineman of the Year, but it wasn’t unanimous. How? I have no idea.

On Tuesday night, the Big Ten released their coaching, defensive and special teams awards.

Head coach Ryan Day, seven defenders and the Buckeyes’ kicker were all recognized. A day later Justin Fields and others were also shown a myriad of awards including Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.

That said, Chase Young won the Defensive Player of the Year award. But, somehow it wasn’t a unanimous decision.

After the Big Ten named all their awards, they noted the unanimous selections in all caps. Young’s name, needless to say, was not fully capitalized, signifying that he wasn’t a unanimous selection.

With 38 total tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks, Young has easily been the most dominant defender in the conference. And all those eye-popping stats came with him missing two games due to a suspension surrounding him accepting a small loan.

He put up the team’s single-season sack record and played just ten games. He’ll likely have three more to solidify his claim as a top-three pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Widely regarded as college football’s best defensive prospect, it’d be interesting to know if Antoine Winfield Jr., who won B1G Defensive Back of the Year, took a vote or two.

Winfield Jr., the Minnesota Golden Gopher, had seven interceptions, the fourth-most in the NCAA. While those were impressive, Winfield isn’t on the same level as Young.

Ohio State’s Justin Fields wins Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year

Ohio State University’s sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has won the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year.

Ohio State University’s sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has won the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year.

The former five-star quarterback started his collegiate career in Georgia and quickly transferred to Ohio State.

Under Ryan Day, Fields has found unparalleled success and has grown into one college football’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. Fields is a projected Heisman finalist as well.

Leading the Buckeyes to a perfect 12-0, Fields neared 2,700 yards through the air with 37 pass touchdowns with a mere one interception. On the ground, he added 470 yards and ten more touchdowns.

For his terrific performances, Fields has been named the Griese-Brees Quarterback of the Year. Like teammate Chase Young, he didn’t just the positional award but was also named the Graham-George Offensive Player of the Year.

The second-year stud knows this ride isn’t over. He’s prepared to play in the team’s conference championship, a rematch against Wisconsin on Saturday.

From there, the Buckeyes will hopefully take their talent down south and compete in the College Football Playoffs. If they go far in those playoffs, it’ll be on the back of star quarterback Justin Fields.

Week 15 CFP Bubble Watch: Resume vs metrics

The choice for the final College Football Playoff team could come down to whether the committee values quality wins or how you play more.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count eight teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. I eliminated Oregon on Tuesday night, though that was after the last article published.

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the eight teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. Additionally, I will show the resumes for Cincinnati and Boise State, in case that determines the Cotton Bowl. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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Championship week NCAA football 2019 expert picks and predictions

It’s college football championship week and we’ve got your predictions against the spread and straight up.

We’ve made it this far on our journey and it’s time to change gears just a wee-bit. We’ve been picking every Big Ten football game collectively as a staff here at Buckeyes Wire and Mark Russell has been beating the pants off everyone.

But it’s not over.

We’re changing gears a bit before all the bowls and taking the time to pick all the major championship games that’ll be coming to a television set or streaming device near you this weekend and keeping track as well. So, off we go.

A a reminder, if there’s an *next to the pick, that means the team will win, but not cover. Also, we get our odds from BetMGM.

INSTRUCTIONS: Make your pick against the spread. For example …
– If you think Ohio State will win -3.5 over Michigan: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win outright: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win, but NOT cover: OSU*
– If there’s a tie, George Washington settles it via the ‘ole quarter coin-flip.

Before we get going with all the picks, here’s the standings so far at the end of the regular season …

RESULTS SO FAR

@PhilHarrisonBW: 136-34 SU, 80-90 ATS
@yesh222: 128-42 SU, 93-77 ATS
@MarkRussell1975: 134-36 SU, 98-72 ATS
@BrentReeves: 131-39 SU, 90-80 ATS
@SirBrockNetter: 133-37 SU, 82-88 ATS
@JaxFryburger: 133-37 SU, 90-80 ATS
CONSENSUS PICK: 135-35 SU, 99-71 ATS

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Next … Power Five Championship Games

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Watch what Ohio State head coach Ryan Day had to say about winning B1G Coach of the Year

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day won B1G Coach of the Year, and he talked about it with the Big Ten Network.

Ohio State’s Ryan Day won Big Ten Coach of the Year as decided by the media.

Minnesota’s head coach, P.J. Fleck, won coach of the year as nominated by conference coaches while Day won the one given away by the conference’s media.

As for Day, he is the university’s first winner of the award since 1979, the year he was born. That said, Day has been nothing short of spectacular in his first season in charge.

The Buckeyes are entering the Big Ten Championship Game with an unblemished 12-0 record.

They are one of three Power 5 teams that are still undefeated, and however, Saturday unfolds, Ohio State is still a virtual lock for the College Football Playoff.

They can thank Ryan Day for all the success.

He’s coalesced the talent on this team and made a cohesive group that is an absolute force. Here’s what the always-humble Day had to say on winning the award.

This will be just the first of many awards heading Ohio State’s way. Chase Young has already won B1G Defensive and Defensive Lineman of the Year, and it’s likely they’ll also have the Offensive Player of the Year as well.

Overall, Day has been the voice of this team, and he’s been outstanding as the unanimous leader so far this season.

Not bad for a first year head coach.

Jeff Okudah snubbed on Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year

Ohio State University’s Jeff Okudah wasn’t named Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year. Needless to say, he was snubbed.

Jeff Okudah is widely praised as the second-best defensive prospect set to enter the NFL Draft, and best overall defensive back. His only competition for overall defensive player is teammate Chase Young, who was was recently awarded the Big Ten’s Defensive Player and Defensive Lineman of the Year.

For Okudah though, he did not receive the honor of the Tatum-Woodson Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year. While Okudah may very well be the best, it was Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr. who was given the award.

Winfield Jr. is a stellar corner. He’s fourth in the nation in interceptions with seven, and those have been a major factor in why Minnesota has just two losses.

However, his numbers are better because he’s actually thrown at. Most quarterbacks choose to run their first read at Shaun Wade or Damon Arnette, two other Ohio State corners that may also be drafted.

Okudah isn’t often targeted. That kills his numbers. While he was named to the All-Big Ten First Team, Okudah should’ve been noted as not just the conference’s but the nation’s best corner.

He recently garnered some praise in CBS Sports’ recent mock draft. Selected fourth overall by the Dolphins, columnist Ryan Wilson noted that Okudah was an absolute monster against Michigan.

“Okudah had his best game of the season on Saturday against Michigan, shutting down every Michigan WR he lined up against.”

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It was shocking. Shea Patterson actually opted to test Okudah instead of just not looking to that entire side of the field.

Okudah has just 20 solo tackles and three interceptions on the year. It’s not a shocker that his numbers are significantly worse than Winfield Jr.’s. Winfield is a viable selection for the award, but that doesn’t make him the conference’s best corner.

We have a feeling the NFL scouts and executives will agree with us when it’s all said and done.

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Ohio State Football: A holistic look at Tuesday’s Big Ten Awards

Coach awards, defensive awards, and special team awards for the Big Ten were announced on Tuesday. How did Ohio State perform in them?

Coach awards, defensive awards, and special team awards for the Big Ten were announced on Tuesday. How did Ohio State perform in them?

Let’s just say Ohio State was well represented. The Buckeyes featured seven players on the All-Big Ten Defensive Team. Those seven included four on the first team. The names and specific team can be found below.

Ohio State also had its kicker, Blake Haubeil, who didn’t miss a PAT all season, named to the All-Big Ten Special Teams third team. Haubeil was 8-for-10 on field goals including a 55-yarder against Northwestern.

It was shocking to not see punter Drue Chrisman on the list as well.

On top of those eight, Ryan Day was named by the media as B1G Coach of the Year. Day led Ohio State to a perfect 12-0 record during his first season in Columbus.

Outside of Day’s COY, those were the team awards.

Chase Young won two individual awards as the conference’s best defensive player and its best defensive lineman.

Somehow, someway, he wasn’t unanimously the best defensive player. Young has 16.5 sacks, a single-season Buckeye record, and 19.5 tackles for loss on the season. He’s a projected top-two pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

That said, here’s the released graphic breaking down how the defensive players were separated among the three teams.

Later today, the offensive awards for the conference will be announced. It’d be shocking if Jonathan Taylor beat out J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields for the Graham-George Offensive Player of the Year. Also, be on the lookout for Fields potentially taking home the Griese-Brees QB of the year in the conference and Dobbins the Ameche-Dayne Running Back of the Year.

We’ll have the rest of the awards for you when they’re announced. And we’ll have our own awards after the conference championship games are all played.

Making sense of the Big Ten bowl lineup

We will find out what bowls Big Ten teams are going to on Sunday. Let’s look at the potential destinations so we can be prepared for them.

Nine Big Ten teams will find out their bowl destinations on Sunday. Where will they be headed? And who are the likely opponents? Let’s look up and down the lineup and see what we can find. There are a few things that we know, though a ton is still up in the air. What happens this weekend–especially in the College Football Playoff race–will have trickle effects on all of the Big Ten’s biggest bowls.

First, we have to explain the Big Ten’s bowl process. After the Citrus Bowl, every bowl sends its preferred team(s) to the Big Ten. The conference then decide which teams go where, though there are some requirements. For example, most bowls have some sort of deal for “five teams in six years,” while the Pinstripe Bowl says its “goal is to have eight different Big Ten schools participate in eight years, with a minimum of six different” teams playing. As this year is the end of the six-year cycle for most of the bowls in the lineup, this leaves some bowls–most notably the Outback Bowl–in an awkward situation.

The easiest way to make sense of the lineup is to go through, bowl by bowl, what teams will be the likely option. Let’s start at the very top, where the answers are very obvious.

College Football Playoff

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Ohio State

Barring an incredible collapse on Saturday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will be going to the College Football Playoff. Either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl is possible for the Buckeyes, though the Fiesta Bowl seems more likely. There is also a very slight chance that Wisconsin could find its way into the tournament. If the Badgers do make it, that will have shakeups down the bowl lineup, as I will explain.

Rose Bowl Game

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State

Potential Opponents: Utah, Oregon

Based on the selection committee’s rankings this week, it seems very likely that Wisconsin will be going to the Rose Bowl. If, however, the Badgers get bumped down below Penn State after losing to Ohio State again, we could see the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl.

Remember, though, the Rose Bowl gets to select its Big Ten team. It will very likely follow the selection committee’s rankings, but it is not bound by them. So if Wisconsin loses badly but doesn’t drop in the rankings, it could still be passed over by the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl could even select Minnesota after the Gophers had their best season in over 50 years, though that no longer seems likely now that Minnesota is the Big Ten’s sixth-highest ranked team.

The opponent in this game will be either Utah or Oregon. If Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game but does not make it to the Playoff, then Utah will be the opponent. If Utah reaches the CFP or Utah loses the Pac 12 Championship Game, then Oregon will be the opponent.

Next… Other NY6 Bowls and New Years’ Day Bowls

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What the College Football Playoff Committee said about Ohio State after the its penultimate set of rankings

The penultimate College Football Rankings are out. Here’s everything the College Football Playoff Committee said about Ohio State.

Ohio State stayed atop the College Football Playoff Rankings with the latest release, but there’s still plenty to discuss.

Each week, after the rankings are revealed, the College Football Playoff Committee holds a teleconference for select media members to answer questions about the discussions and process used to rank the teams into their respective slots.

We’re a part of those and we’d like to pass on what the Playoff Selection Committee Chair Rob Mullens had to say about Ohio State. So, here goes after the penultimate rankings …

On the overall comments from the selection committee on the Buckeyes:

Our next-to-final rankings are done. As you have seen, the committee ranked Ohio State as the No. 1 team in the nation, LSU as No. 2, Clemson as No. 3, and Georgia as No. 4. The top four teams did not change. There are many other changes that did take place, and I would be happy to discuss the committee’s thinking with you for all the teams that we ranked. Obviously this weekend’s conference championship games will be crucial to determining the final rankings. I, along with my fellow committee members, look forward to returning do Dallas in just a few days to watch those games and complete our work.

On how the committee measures performance on the field versus margin of victory.

Question from the media: You’ve talked before about how the committee
doesn’t incentivize margin of victory. The number one thing on the list is always performance on the field. How do you reconcile those two things? The best way to show a really strong performance on the field is to win by a lot of points. How does the committee figure that out?

ROB MULLENS: Watching how a team plays. Whether somebody has a big lead and keeps pouring it on late in the game is irrelevant. It’s really how you perform up until that point.

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On measuring teams that play in conference championship games:

Question from the media: Having gone through this the last few years, on that last set of rankings, when you have to handle teams that lost, played an extra game and lost in their conference title games, are you mindful of how far they fall relative to teams that aren’t playing that week, or is it handled pretty much the same as any other week?

ROB MULLENS: Good question.

We are very mindful because they’re all division champs. It is an honor to play in the conference championship game. So we are mindful of what they’ve accomplished during the regular season.

On the committee’s different perception of LSU and Ohio State than the traditional polls:

Question from the media: What does the committee see is the difference between Ohio State and LSU that the writers and the coaches and the polls don’t?

ROB MULLENS: Two really, really good teams, first of all. That’s what the committee sees. Ohio State now with their impressive win over Michigan on the road has four wins over top-25 teams. LSU has three very impressive wins over top-25 teams. As we’ve talked in past weeks, both really have dynamic offenses, both have good defenses. Ohio State’s is just a little ahead at this point.

On comparing resume vs. the eye test:

Question from the media:You mentioned last week the committee thought Ohio State has more of an eye test compared to LSU, which had been No. 1 the week before. This week it sounds like the résumé in terms of top-25 wins accounts for a lot. As you get closer to the end, does résumé begin to count for a little bit more in terms of where you rank these teams?

ROB MULLENS: No, it all counts. I don’t think we said last week that one thing was more than another. I think, again, we said both those teams were very good teams. Obviously we recognize the wins against ranked opponents, the overall schedule strength, as well as how they’re performing on the field, offense, defense and special teams. Two great teams.

Next … Rankings timing and Ohio State vs. LSU

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