What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Poll Mentality

The College Football Playoff selection committee has released its third rankings of the year. What hints did they give us for the future?

The College Football Playoff claims that the selection committee “starts from scratch” every week, judging each team and each resume like new each week. The committee’s rankings the past two weeks, though, show that’s not what it is doing. The selection committee came up with its first rankings two weeks ago. That set of rankings seemed to be based on resume more than what the human polls usually do. Since then, though, the committee has very clearly just been sticking to those rankings–moving down teams that lose, and maybe giving a team a bonus for a big win.

How do I know this? It’s simple. If the committee really started from scratch each week, you would see shifts in the rankings. A team would jump a team for seemingly no reason. But it’s not no reason, as resumes change every week. For example, Ohio State’s season opponents went 6-3 on the week, and all three of those losses came to teams that Ohio State also played. The Buckeyes have a stronger resume this week than last week, even though all the Buckeyes themselves did was play Rutgers. These types of things should cause small shifts in the rankings week to week. That’s not happening, which means that the committee is relying on what they thought last week, not starting from scratch every week.

There were only ten real changes in the rankings this week. Minnesota, Baylor, and Auburn all dropped a bit for picking up losses to other good teams. Iowa gained three spots for beating Top 10 Minnesota. Cincinnati slipped a spot (and lost a second spot to Iowa’s jump) after struggling with a weak opponent for the second time in three weeks. Texas, Navy, and Kansas State all fell out with losses. Iowa State and USC both jumped Appalachian State–which makes sense, since the Mountaineers don’t have any resume worthy of being in the rankings in the first place.

None of these are examples of looking at the whole season and starting from scratch. Every single one of these ranking changes is a direct reaction to what happened on the field this week. Hopefully the committee will start from scratch when the all-important final rankings come out in three weeks, but the committee’s outlook the past two weeks has not been encouraging.

Next…The Penn State and Alabama problems

Ohio State remains No. 2 in latest College Football Playoff Rankings

The third installment of the 2019 College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and Ohio State remains at the No. 2 spot.

Not mush has changed at the top in the week three of the College Football Playoff Rankings. Despite showing some warts on defense, the LSU Tigers remained at the top of the poll with Ohio State remaining in second.

There was some thought that the over 600 of yards of offense the Tigers gave up to Ole Miss would be enough to allow the Buckeyes to slide back up to the No. 1 slot it occupied when the first installment of the rankings were unveiled, but it still appears to be about who LSU has beaten as opposed to which team looks more complete and dominant.

What remains to be seen is what the committee will do with Ohio State if it is able to beat a No. 8 Penn State this coming weekend. If the Buckeyes were No. 1 prior to LSU’s victory over a top five Alabama, an OSU win over a top ten Penn State might be enough to tip the scaled back in the Buckeyes’ favor.

With two weeks remaining in the regular season, and the conference championship games still to go, there are still going to be shakeups in this thing.

We’ll have it all for you as we step through the wacky rationale used by the College Playoff Committee. We’ll do it all again next Tuesday.

Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford says going back to Ohio State “a little personal”

Penn State quarterback and Ohio native told reporters that “it’s a little personal” going back to Ohio State to play.

If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it 10,000 times. Why can’t kids these days just let their play do the talking when it comes to playing Ohio State. Look, I get it, you’re all fired up to take down the big, bad wolf, so you get emotional and pop off a little in the media.

I mean, these are nineteen and twenty-year old kids, but we’ve seen it time and time again from teams that are trying their hardest to dust off frustrations of playing second fiddle to a team at the level of the Buckeye program. Michigan had some guarantees, revenge tours, and harsh comments for turncoat coaches, but each and every time the walk doesn’t match the talk.

Now we have Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford saying things that — while not crossing the line — can still be used as bulletin board material.

Clifford is an Ohio kid. He played for Cincinnati St. Xavier and was a four-star recruit. He was considered the best player coming out of the state, yet Ohio State didn’t offer him, and instead went for the national Gatorade Player of the Year, Tate Martell.

How’d that work out?

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Anyway, now it appears Clifford has a bit of an ax to grind. When speaking with reporters, the Penn State signal-caller went right up to the line when talking about his feelings of going back to Ohio.

“I’d be lying if I didn’t say it’s a little personal going back,” Clifford said. “Whenever you go back to where you’re from, to play the team from where you’re from, that’s always going to bring a little extra juice.”

He went on to speak about how hungry and prepared the team will be to go to Columbus.

“I’m very excited to be in the position we are,” he said. “I can promise that this will be the best week of preparation that we will have. We will not be denied that. We will be extremely, extremely prepared for next week.”

So it doesn’t quite reach the level of a slight towards Ohio State some of the things TTUN has done, but you know coaches and players will use whatever they can to motivate and prepare for an opponent. This falls into that category, and Clifford probably would be better advised to just respect and heap praise on the opponent.

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Watch what Penn State head coach James Franklin said about Ohio State ahead of the game Saturday

Penn State head coach James Franklin met with the media during his weekly press conference to preview Ohio State. Find out what he said.

Ohio State is all set to host a top ten Penn State team this Saturday in Columbus. It’s the biggest game to date with a ton on the line. If the Buckeyes can win, they will clinch the Big Ten East Division and keep things between the guardrails for a Big Ten Championship and appearance in the College Football Playoff.

There’s no doubt Nittany Lion head coach James Franklin knows the challenge ahead of his team as it prepares to game plan and find a way to knock off perhaps the most dominant and complete team in the country.

But under Franklin, the last three games between the two have been decided by five total points, so if anyone program has the confidence and ability to pull of the upset, it’s the Penn State program.

He made himself available to the media Tuesday to preview the game and we have all of those comments for you thanks to the Penn State Football Facebook page.

Click on the below and listen to Franklin rattle off several Ohio State players that jump out on film, talk about the injury status of star wide-receiver K.J. Hamler, his relationship with Ryan Day, and more. He, like many, had some very complimentary things to say about this Buckeye team — calling it perhaps the best he’s seen on tape since he’s been at Penn State.

As a warning though, if you know anything about Franklin, he does like to hear himself talk. There’s some good stuff in here though.

https://www.facebook.com/PSUFball/videos/730634534124758/

 

WATCH: All 41 touchdowns from superstar Ohio State QB Justin Fields

The Ohio State football team has raced out to a dominant 10-0 start behind the excellence play of Justin Fields. Watch all his TDs here.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been nothing short of impressive this season. They’re the No. 2 ranked team in the nation and are in a perfect position to win out.

They’ve been absolutely dominant against every opponent because of their disruptive defense and potent offense. That offense has been led by quarterback Justin Fields, who transferred to Ohio State after a season in Georgia.

A Heisman candidate, Fields, through his first ten games for Ohio State, has 41 touchdowns — 10 on the ground and 31 through the air.

With over 2,100 yards passing and another 370-plus on the ground, Fields could go down as the Buckeyes best dual-threat quarterback in the program’s illustrious history.

With that in mind ahead of the Penn State game, we’re feeling a little sentimental. In case you missed any of those scores, or just want to re-live them all, let’s take a look at all 41 touchdowns by Fields courtesy of a video shared on Twitter by The Buckeye Nut.

The Buckeyes need Fields to continue this type of dominance as their next three outings may be the team’s most challenging yet. They’ll be taking on Penn State, Michigan and then either a likely Wisconsin or Minnesota in the B1G Ten Championship Game.

From what we’ve seen of Fields, don’t expect him to slow down against a tough defense. After all, he did put three touchdowns on Wisconsin who had the best defense in the nation at the time.

What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s third rankings

With the CFP selection committee coming out with new rankings Tuesday night, let’s look ahead to what they might say on certain issues.

Usually I can use this space to highlight a few questions the committee can answer with its rankings. We can use them to determine how the committee judges SOS, what it values, etc. Last week, for example, I pointed out that what the committee seems to value most this year is whether a team blows bad teams out or not. And, certainly, it will be important to see if that trend stands.

As always, I am sure that we’ll have plenty to glean from the committee’s rankings. However, the odd trajectory of this season means that we won’t be able to look forward to anything before we see the rankings.

How does the committee value real quality wins? Well, other than LSU and Ohio State, no team has more than one top quality win. Teams like Penn State, Georgia, and Michigan have two good wins, but no one has a real collection there.

As I pointed out in CFP Implications this week, there are 17 teams that have basically locked themselves into the top positions this year. Those 17 will be the committee’s top 17 as well. Splitting hairs among those 17, though, is exactly that–splitting hairs. Will Iowa and Auburn be at the bottom due to their three losses? Probably, though maybe Auburn can sneak ahead of the Wisconsin-Michigan-Notre Dame trio.

Among those 17 teams, there are plenty of reasonable things for the committee to do. And we will certainly learn something from the rankings, and–more importantly this week than in previous weeks–how Rob Mullens explains the rankings. Oklahoma’s placement will teach us a lot, as will Minnesota’s and Penn State’s. But I can’t particularly warn you what to look for, because none of the committee’s choices are particularly binary.

This week, it’s more important to listen. The committee has constantly kept to head-to-head results this year. Will that remain true with Minnesota and Penn State? Will the Gophers stay ahead of Penn State by not falling at all–or will Penn State be forced to drop so as to remain behind Minnesota? Then again, with the emphasis this committee places on dominating games, maybe Penn State will fall a spot or two anyway for struggling against Indiana.

Next … The bottom

With a win Saturday, Ohio State clinches the Big Ten East, spot in Big Ten Championship Game

With a win over Penn State on Saturday, Ohio State clinches the outright Big Ten East title and a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

We know it’ll be a top ten matchup Saturday when Ohio State hosts Penn State. We also know the Nittany Lions have posed more challenges for the Buckeyes than maybe any other team in the Big Ten over the last few years. They’ve only knocked the door down one time, but almost every game has been a one possession affair since James Franklin’s been stomping around in Happy Valley.

We also know there will be three national, live shows all converging on Columbus to preview the game, and that says all you need to know about the stakes of this one. There are East Division title, Big Ten Championship, and College Football Playoff implications on the line.

But first things first, what’s front and center is that a win by Ohio State on Saturday over Penn State clinches the Big Ten East outright and a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. It would be the Buckeyes third straight appearance in Indy.

An OSU win would result in the Nittany Lions’ second loss in conference play, and since Michigan has already been turned back twice, even a loss in Ann Arbor the following week would still leave Ohio State as the only one-loss squad in the East Division.

Surprisingly, no tie-breaker needed this time around.

If however, somehow, someway, Penn State finds a way to beat the Buckeyes, it would more than likely mean a trip to Indy for the Nittany Lions. Their next game would be against Rutgers — almost assuredly a win — with the tiebreaker for the head-to-head in hand.

So hopefully Ohio State stays hungry, focused, and intent on continuing to make history and we you can celebrate Saturday night by booking a trip to Indianapolis.

 

USA TODAY re-ranks Ohio State back at No. 1 after some reconsideration

USA TODAY has put Ohio State football back on the top of the college football world after LSU temporarily holding the spot for a week.

The Ohio State football team is now the best team in the country according to Paul Myerberg of USA TODAY Sports. It’s not the first time the Buckeyes have been placed at the top of his weekly re-rank column. In fact, OSU had a multi-week run as the overall top program re-ranked each and every week.

But … like many analysts and media members, LSU’s win over Alabama just over a week ago changed Myerberg’s mind enough to put the Bayou Tigers into the top spot despite Ohio State scoring 73 points against Maryland. It was apparently resume over domination.

Well, apparently that has all now changed with LSU’s mediocre defensive performance against a rather dismal Ole Miss team this weekend. The Tiger offense looked fine enough, but the D gave up 614 total yards and 37 points. I’ve seen less numbers at an accountant convention.

Here’s what Myerberg said about Ohio State:

“Ohio State is back atop the heap after yet another breeze past a Big Ten opponent, this time Rutgers. With two weeks left in November, the Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring offense, scoring defense and yards allowed per play.”

You can get a look at the entire re-rank by visiting USA TODAY and giving it a gander yourself.

Ohio State Buckeyes only top-ten team in both basketball and football

After Week 12 in football and week 2 in basketball, the Ohio State Buckeyes sit as the NCAA’s only top-ten team in both sports.

After Week 12 in football and week 2 in basketball, the Ohio State Buckeyes sit as the university with the only top-ten team in both sports of the biggest revenue making sports.

It’s not easy to be elite at multiple sports.

The last time the Buckeyes held both teams in the top ten was February 12, 2017, after the university’s football program finished fifth in the final AP Poll and their basketball program slide into the No. 8 spot.

Overall, programs like Duke and Kentucky have outstanding basketball teams on a yearly basis; however, they struggle to compare to the rest of their conference in football.

On the other side, programs like LSU and Alabama typically can’t hold their own on the hardwood yet would easily put 60 points on most opponents in football.

For Ohio State, it just so happens to be one of the best teams in both sports this season, something you could argue comes along with Ohio State historically as well. Believe it or not, the Buckeyes are tied with the most Big Ten basketball titles in conference history, and are a top five program for Final Four appearances all-time.

On the gridiron, Ohio State is currently ranked No. 2 in the nation and has yet to even come close to losing. It has been beat down after beat down in 2019. With Justin Fields leading the way and Chase Young guiding the defense, the Buckeyes have looked invincible.

The Big Ten East division crown is going to all boil down to the Nov. 23 showdown with Penn State. The Buckeyes have already opened as double-figure favorites in that one, but the game must be played.

As for basketball, the Buckeyes recently put a 25-point beatdown on the then-10th-ranked Villanova Wildcats. They’re 3-0 and have moved up to No. 10 in the AP Poll, and No. 9 in the USA TODAY Poll.

Behind the strong play of third-year forward Kaleb Wesson and three terrific four-star freshman recruits, the Buckeyes are once again making Columbus known for its basketball.

All we hope for is sustained success as both programs look to be taking their talent level to new heights.

Ohio State forward Kaleb Wesson named Big Ten Player of the Week

The Big Ten has named Ohio State big man Kaleb Wesson its Player of the Week.

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Kaleb Wesson, a third-year power forward for the Ohio State Buckeyes, was named the Big Ten Player of the Week after two dominant efforts, both resulting in Buckeye victories.

Wesson played an integral role in the team’s 25-point blowout of the then-top 10-ranked Villanova Wildcats. He ended the game with 10 points and a team-high 11 rebounds.

While he may’ve been the most important player on the court against Nova, Wesson’s dominance over UML may’ve been equally as impressive. He totaled a double-double with 13 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists, leading the team in each category respectively.

This season, Wesson is averaging 10.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. Even more impressively, Wesson is shooting 43% from deep. Overall, he’s captaining his team the way a third-year star should.

Now 3-0, the Buckeyes are a top-ten team in the nation, something we haven’t been able to say through Wesson’s first two seasons.

That said, he’ll have Stetson and Fort Wright on the calendar this week trying to push his Buckeyes to 5-0.