Can he capitalize as a sophomore on a promising rookie season?
A second-round pick last year, New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore appeared in 11 of the team’s first 12 games before suffering a quad injury on Dec. 5 that landed him on the Reserve/Injured list and cost him the final five games of the season. Despite missing more than a third of the season, Moore led the club in targets (77), receiving yards (538), and touchdowns (five), and he also finished third in receptions (43).
Given the offseason to heal up, Moore is fully healthy now and a central figure in what looks like a potentially dangerous receiving corps that also features first-round pick Garrett Wilson, and veteran Corey Davis, whose first season in Gotham was marred by injuries — he put up a 34-492-2 line in nine games after spending his first four years with the Tennessee Titans. Former second-rounder Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios, who finished second with 46 catches in 2021, round out the group.
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While that’s a solid unit on paper, there are still questions aplenty about second-year quarterback Zach Wilson (knee), who struggled as a rookie and recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery that could keep him out of Week 1 and maybe even beyond. Veteran Joe Flacco is a capable backup to be sure, but the team invested the No. 2 overall pick on Wilson, and they need him to make significant strides after he threw just nine touchdown passes a year ago.
Despite some uncertainty about the quality of play at the quarterback position, there’s a lot to like about Moore’s potential this season. Coming out of Ole Miss, the 22-year-old had the right set of skills for a young QB, namely good hands, the ability to get open quickly, and the speed to make things happen after the catch — it’s why he averaged seven targets per game. He’ll operate out of the slot again in 2022 with Davis and Wilson penciled in on the outside.
Fantasy football outlook
Assuming he stays healthy, Moore is a good bet to again lead the Jets’ receivers in multiple categories as his role to work close to the line of scrimmage should earn him plenty of opportunities to make plays. While he’s best suited as a midrange or even low-end WR3, there’s some legitimate upside here, and Moore could make a push toward WR2 territory this season.
Escaping serious injury, can Wilson regroup in time to make a strong push in Year 2?
Already under the microscope following a tough debut campaign, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (knee) sustained a torn meniscus and a bone bruise during the club’s preseason opener on Friday, Aug. 12. The initial prognosis was for the BYU product to miss between two and four weeks, though head coach Robert Saleh wouldn’t put a firm timetable on the recovery process. Wilson underwent successful arthroscopic knee surgery on Tuesday, Aug. 15.
One thing that’s sure to be in the back of the front office’s minds is the sprained MCL Wilson had as a rookie, which happened to the same knee as his most recent injury. Saleh has already indicated that the Jets won’t rush him back onto the field, and the recurrent issue in his right knee could certainly push out his return past the original timeline.
While word is all went smoothly with the procedure, it’s hard to imagine the Jets won’t turn to backup Joe Flacco to lead them into Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens as the team will want Wilson eased back into action. That report was already making the rounds on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of Wilson’s surgery.
[lawrence-related id=467665]
Although Wilson dodged a more serious injury, there could still be some concern about how the team might adjust in terms of having him run around — he didn’t run a lot last season, but he was effective when he did, posting a 29-185-4 line on the ground, which was good for 6.4 yards per carry. After hurting his knee at the end of a seven-yard scramble last Friday, the coaches might drill into him to stay in the pocket and not risk his twice-injured knee.
Depending on the length of the injury, New York’s passing game might get a bit of a short-term bump with the more experienced Flacco under center. Wide receivers Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are both draftable commodities, with Moore as a fringe WR3 and the rookie Wilson as late-round depth in the WR5 area. Of course, if we’re only talking about a week or two, which seems likely, the change is unlikely to make more than a minor ripple.
Fantasy football outlook
Wilson was already on the outskirts of QB2 territory before the injury, and even that placement was due in large to what, at least on paper, is a talented group of receivers at his disposal. Since he wasn’t being drafted as a fantasy starter, his season outlook doesn’t change. If you have a reliable, high-end QB1, and want to wait until the later rounds to secure your backup, Wilson’s upside could fit the bill.
Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.
While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.
To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.
Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.
We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.
After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.
After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.
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Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.
In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.
Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.
He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.
Fantasy football outlook
There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.
Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).
It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
Sorting through all of the newest additions to the 2021 fantasy football draft pool.
After an unconventional selection experience last year, the 2021 NFL Draft returns to a sense of normalcy.
Fantasy football draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of bowl season.
The real thing is finally upon us! Follow along for real-time analysis the NFL draft’s opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2021.
Round 1
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-kept draft secret in recent memory, Lawrence is tasked with turning around a Jacksonville franchise that was one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just a few seasons ago, prior to as precipitous of a fall from grace.
He is as “pro ready” as we’ve seen in recent years, and Jacksonville has put enough talent around Lawrence to expect immediate contributions. The receiving corps boasts DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., plus a competent rushing attack behind a respectable offensive line. A shaky defensive unit won’t hurt Lawrence’s counting stats, either.
Expect Lawrence to hit the ground at least jogging, but a full-on sprint is likely before season’s end. He is by far the best rookie quarterback in 2021 fantasy action, and there’s little doubt Lawrence will become a lineup fixture for years to come. Think midrange QB2 in ’21 with potential to be the top fake passer in as little as a season or two.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
2) QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: While the Jets will immediately start Wilson, the talent around the gunslinger is suspect. Wideouts Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims bring three levels of attack points within the route tree, but few will argue this group is any better than average until we see more from the outside guys. Keelan Cole comes off a fine year in Jacksonville and offers slot depth behind the oft-injured Crowder.
The line still needs to show it is ready to consistently offer reliable protection, and there’s currently no rushing game to speak of behind it. Granted, this should be addressed early in the draft, but it makes for two rookie starters in key roles that are thoroughly dependent upon each other’s successes. Not ideal.
Wilson has oodles of talent, moxie, and upside for fantasy football purposes. It may not all come together in 2021 with a first-time head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, especially with this system expected to be a replica of the notoriously complicated Kyle Shanahan design.
Wilson is a matchup-based reserve for the short term and has the tools to develop into a top-flight fantasy passer within the first two or three years of his career. But it comes with notable risk, so he may not be suitable for gamers unwilling to take even a modest leap of faith.
Sorting through all of the newest additions to the 2021 fantasy football draft pool.
After an unconventional selection experience last year, the 2021 NFL Draft returns to a sense of normalcy.
Fantasy football draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of bowl season.
The real thing is finally upon us! Follow along for real-time analysis the NFL draft’s opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2021.
Round 1
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-kept draft secret in recent memory, Lawrence is tasked with turning around a Jacksonville franchise that was one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just a few seasons ago, prior to as precipitous of a fall from grace.
He is as “pro ready” as we’ve seen in recent years, and Jacksonville has put enough talent around Lawrence to expect immediate contributions. The receiving corps boasts DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., plus a competent rushing attack behind a respectable offensive line. A shaky defensive unit won’t hurt Lawrence’s counting stats, either.
Expect Lawrence to hit the ground at least jogging, but a full-on sprint is likely before season’s end. He is by far the best rookie quarterback in 2021 fantasy action, and there’s little doubt Lawrence will become a lineup fixture for years to come. Think midrange QB2 in ’21 with potential to be the top fake passer in as little as a season or two.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
2) QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: While the Jets will immediately start Wilson, the talent around the gunslinger is suspect. Wideouts Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims bring three levels of attack points within the route tree, but few will argue this group is any better than average until we see more from the outside guys. Keelan Cole comes off a fine year in Jacksonville and offers slot depth behind the oft-injured Crowder.
The line still needs to show it is ready to consistently offer reliable protection, and there’s currently no rushing game to speak of behind it. Granted, this should be addressed early in the draft, but it makes for two rookie starters in key roles that are thoroughly dependent upon each other’s successes. Not ideal.
Wilson has oodles of talent, moxie, and upside for fantasy football purposes. It may not all come together in 2021 with a first-time head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, especially with this system expected to be a replica of the notoriously complicated Kyle Shanahan design.
Wilson is a matchup-based reserve for the short term and has the tools to develop into a top-flight fantasy passer within the first two or three years of his career. But it comes with notable risk, so he may not be suitable for gamers unwilling to take even a modest leap of faith.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
3) QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: Lance did not play in 2020, but he owns a 17-0 record at North Dakota State. More importantly, he fits the San Francisco offensive system extremely well, due to mobility and the requisite arm strength to sling it. He played in a pro-style system in college, and there’s a ton of RPO success on tape, too.
The 49ers run an unbelievably complex system under Kyle Shanahan, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if we don’t see Lance in 2021. Given the extensive injury history of Jimmy Garoppolo, in addition to the amount of capital spent on acquiring Lance, he’s closer to seeing the field than any other rookie quarterback entering behind an entrenched starter. There’s so much to mold and work with here that Shanahan will find creative ways to put Lance in smart situations to limit the potential for error.
Next up, keep an eye on whether Garoppolo is traded during the draft or shortly thereafter, but media reports suggest there is no immediate deal in the works. Should Lance start from Week 1, he’s a fringe starter in fantasy based on his wheels and the weapons around him. His long-range outlook is through the roof.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
4) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: The Hayden Hurst experiment effectively comes to an unceremonious end with the highest selection of a tight end in NFL history. Florida’s Pitts is an absolute freak of nature and immediately upgrades the weaponry for Matt Ryan.
The Falcons need help on defense, and one could argue Ryan’s successor was a viable choice, but Pitts is far too talented for a former tight ends coach in head coach Arthur Smith to miss out on. Count on creative ways to get him involved, and he’ll be a threat at each level of the route tree.
This system will emphasize the position, and while rookie tight ends rarely are fantasy weapons, Pitts should be the exception. He has low-end TE1 appeal, and his athleticism means even a low-volume week could turn in big-time stats.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
5) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: The former LSU Tiger is reunited with his collegiate quarterback in Joe Burrow (knee), and fantasy gamers will enjoy the connection for years to come. However, protecting Burrow is now the top priority in this draft, and it is fortunately a deep class for this area of need.
Cincinnati has Chase entering the picture after sitting out the 2020 season (COVID opt-out). He will step in as the presumptive WR1 when looking at the entire season, but it could take some time to get things going. He will have second-year receiver Tee Higgins to rely on to help him get up to speed after finding success as a rookie in 2020, and Tyler Boyd is the elder statesman of this corps at 24.
Chase brings downfield prowess to help balance the passing game. Boyd is the intermediate and short-area guy, whereas Higgins is an asset in the red zone and as a chain-mover when tough yards are necessary. Chase has the flair to take over games and uncork a long one at any moment. Fantasy gamers should treat him as a WR3 in 2021 leagues, and his long-term valuation is as a rock-solid No. 1 weapon.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
6) WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: Just as Chase was reunited with his former quarterback from the 2019 season, Waddle will be catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, his collegiate ‘slinger.
DeVante Parker returns as the likely No. 1 target, and he’ll be joined by former Houston Texans first-rounder Will Fuller. The oft-injured Fuller will miss Week 1 via suspension, making him a double threat for unavailability. One off-field misstep and he’ll miss serious time. One physically wrong step and he’ll find himself on the mend. His one-year deal is reflective of these conditions. Parker is no stranger to injuries, either.
Promising third-year receiver Preston Williams has struggled to keep himself off of the trainers’ table. The Dolphins have veterans Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford in reserve, as well as Lynn Bowden Jr. as a possible receiver-slash-running back. None of those backup guys have the game-breaking ability of Waddle. The 5-foot-9, 180-pounder is as explosive as any receiver in recent memory, and his game is so similar to that of Tyreek Hill’s that defensive coordinators will have their hands full.
In 2021 drafts, Waddle is a reserve pick. He’ll need time to get up to speed, and he’s “target buried” behind two receivers that are clearly the starters. That said, a strong offseason can put him into the starting slot role. Miami hardly utilized three-wide base sets in 2020, although the franchise didn’t have a real-life video game character on the roster. The dynasty outlook is much stronger for Waddle. He’s a player coaches scheme around and find ways to manufacture touches to go his way. While he has some room before we’ll suggest he can match Hill’s ridiculous contributions, consider that to be the potential ceiling for Waddle.
Former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson may or may not be as good as Trevor Lawrence, but the consensus is that he’s a better draft pick than any other rookie this year. That means falling to the 1.02 pick by the New York Jets. That No. 3 spot varies greatly in projections and draft guesses but Wilson will be a Jet or the draft kicks off with a surprise.
As a true freshman, he started seven games and ended with a season-best 317 yards and four touchdowns against Western Michigan in the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl where he was named as the game MVP.
As a sophomore, he started nine games and ended up in the 2019 Hawaii Bowl where he was against the game MVP.
As a junior, he enjoyed a stellar year when he passed for 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns and ran in ten more scores on his 70 rushes for 254 yards. He ended as the MVP if the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl. He also beat BYU alum Steve Young’s school record with a 73.5% completion rate.
Wilson recorded 15 touchdowns as a rusher at BYU, but they were almost all short scores and he only averaged 3.0 yards per rush. He’s not a running quarterback per se but can certainly rush in touchdowns in addition to throwing them.
His star was rising after his sophomore season, but his strong junior campaign rocketed him up the draft boards. He had been hampered by a torn labrum that was repaired between his first two seasons. A right-hand injury impacted his second year and it too required surgery. But his junior season was all healthy and served up what Wilson was capable of doing.
Zach Wilson BYU stats (2018-20)
Year
Games
Runs
Yards
TD
Pass
Complete
Yards
Avg.
TD
Int
QBR
2018
9
75
221
2
182
120
1578
13.2
12
3
157.2
2019
9
67
167
3
319
199
2382
12.0
11
9
130.8
2020
12
70
254
10
336
247
3692
14.9
33
3
196.4
Pros
Accurate passer
Big arm
Rarely makes an error
Can make any throw
Poised in pocket, almost fearless
Confident and very competitive
Big arm that can has touch on deep tosses
Throws very catchable ball
Smart player that excels reading defenses
Enough mobility to avoid rush and buy time
Burst as a runner helps notch short rushing scores
Expected to continue to improve
Athletic
Cons
Only had one big year
Did not face top competition
Could use more weight
Some character concerns as too confident
Needs work on anticipation
injuries in high school and in college
Fantasy outlook
There is a chance that the Jets surprise with their 1.02 pick and select Justin Fields, but odds are heavily leaning to Wilson ending up in New York where there has never been a 4,000-yard passer since the league went to 16 games in 1978. On the plus, he gets that extra 17th game this year to break the curse.
Sam Darnold never experienced the level of success expected when the Jets grabbed him in 2018 with their 1.03 pick. Or the 2009 1.05 pick they used on Mark Sanchez. The Jets history of underwhelming at the quarterback spot is lengthy and uncomfortable.
There’s a new coaching staff with HC Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur, so the rebuild begins centered around Wilson. The talent of receivers remains below average, but they are expected to mine the draft for wideouts. The 2021 outlook is low given the installation of new schemes, new coaches, new players and just being Year 1 of a rebuild. His dynasty value is much higher, but even then the history of the position points to marginal fantasy position for the Jets and Wilson is just the newest young gun trying to turn the franchise around.
