Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Key Players, Who’s Out and Predictions
The Wyoming Cowboys travel to Tucson for the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, taking on the MAC runner-up Toledo Rockets. For the Cowboys’ head coach, Craig Bohl, it will be his final game before retirement, where the Pokes hope to seal its first nine-win season since 1996.
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Mountain West bowl season ends in the desert.
BARSTOOL SPORTS ARIZONA BOWL: Toledo Rockets (11-2, 8-0 MAC) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4, 5-3 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, December 30 — 2:30 PM MT
WHERE: Arizona Stadium (50,782)
TV: CW Network/Barstool Sports
RADIO: Cowboy Sports Network
SERIES RECORD: Series tied 1-1
LAST MATCHUP: Toledo won 34-31 on Sept. 8, 2012, in Laramie, Wyo.
WEBSITES: GoWyo.com, the official Wyoming athletics website; UTRockets.com, the official Toledo athletics website.
GAME NOTES: Wyoming | Toledo
ODDS: Wyoming -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 44.5 points
SP+ PROJECTION: Toledo by 7.8
FEI PROJECTION: Toledo by 1.4
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Wyoming 58.99% win probability (27.04-24.03)
In only the third meeting between programs, the Toledo Rockets and Wyoming Cowboys enter the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl with sizeable record differences. The Rockets are 11-2 after falling to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC Championship Game and losing out on the chance to play in a New Year’s Six bowl game. A 5-1 start for the Cowboys had the team rolling with predictions of a Wyoming New Year’s Six bowl game. However, the Group of Five bid became unimaginable as the Pokes finished the season 3-3.
The announcement of Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl’s retirement following the game has become one of the commanding storylines of the Wyoming team and Arizona Bowl. After a decade at the helm of the Cowboys, Bohl’s departure allowed the program to promote defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel as the 33rd head coach of Wyoming. The game’s outcome will also determine whether Bohl concludes his career with a winning or losing record for the Cowboys.
On the opposite sideline, the Rockets will be without quarterback DeQuan Finn — after five years in the program — as he has entered the transfer portal and committed to Baylor. The absence of Finn leaves a question mark at quarterback and offensive production. Assumingly, Tucker Gleason will be under center for Toledo.
The Rocket’s offense has demonstrated its explosiveness all season long, scoring 30 or more points in eight games. They have also averaged 426.2 yards a game through its 13 games thus far. With backup Gleason, the team’s offense will still be able to count on running back Peny Boone, the seventh-leading rusher in FBS with 1,400 yards.
In comparison, Wyoming has only managed 324.8 yards per game, which ranks 107th nationally. However, in the final two games, the Wyoming offense averaged 440.5 yards per game against Hawaii and Nevada, including 42 points in each game and holding opponents to single digits.
Both teams also enjoy the athletes’ accomplishments, with multiple all-conference players on each team. Toledo boasts 10 All-MAC First Team players, including Finn and Boone, and 14 total players awarded. Wyoming has two All-Mountain West First Team players, offensive lineman Frank Crum and linebacker Easton Gibbs. The Pokes also had six others make the all-conference teams.
With the Rockets and Cowboys’ all-star-caliber players, there are significant players on both sides of the ball for both sidelines.
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Key players and pieces (and those missing)
Toledo
With Finn’s transfer to Baylor, the question is whether Gleason will produce at levels similar to Finn’s. The backup stepped in last season for two games while Finn was injured and outperformed Finn against Western Michigan. However, Gleason has had limited opportunities this season, only appearing in three blowout victories. This season, he is 14 of 21 for 199 yards and four touchdowns against Texas Southern, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan.
Having Finn under center, the offense operated using a dual-threat style of play for the quarterback. However, Gleason has only rushed the ball significantly once last season against Bowling Green. How will the transition work from a dual-threat quarterback to Gleason’s pocket presence?
Expect Toledo’s game plan to heavily emphasize the rushing attack, as it has all season long. However, Boone announced on Dec. 26 that he would enter the transfer portal. Instead, running back Jacquez Stuart, the All-MAC First Team kick returner, will be the presumed starter. Stuart finished the season with 475 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The rushing game could falter for the Rockets as Stuart has not demonstrated the explosive runs like Boone.
The offense also lacks all-conference offensive lineman Vinny Sciury, who has announced his transfer to Texas Tech.
Defensively, the Rockets can also contain and sack the quarterback, heavily assisted by defensive tackle Judge Culpepper. On the season, Culpepper leads the team in sacks, with nine, and tackles for loss, with 10.5. The team has 35 sacks on the season, tied for 17th best in the nation.
Wyoming
Unlike previous seasons, the transfer portal has not heavily impacted the Cowboys. Thus far, the Pokes have only had four players enter the portal, with only one being a starter, cornerback Kolbey Taylor.
Instead, Wyoming enters the Arizona Bowl with nearly all talent available. This includes several players’ last game for the Cowboys, such as quarterback Andrew Peasley. In the most efficient season of his career, Peasley threw for career highs in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, touchdown-interception ratio, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. The quarterback also received an honorable mention to the All-Mountain West team. The Cowboys’ captain threw for a career-high 319 yards against Hawaii on only 14 completions.
Despite only averaging 167 yards through the air, Peasley has contributed to several Wyoming victories this season, including three-touchdown games against Texas Tech, Portland State, Fresno State, Hawaii and a four-touchdown game at Nevada.
In addition, Wyoming’s transfer running back from last year, Harrison Waylee, has given a spark to the Pokes’ rushing attack. Waylee’s average of 95 rushing yards a game is 23rd at the FBS level, and 5.8 yards per carry ranks 34th.
Waylee introduced himself to Pokes fans with his first appearance at No. 4 Texas, where he would break a 62-yard touchdown and finish with 110 yards. He would post a season-high of 191 yards against New Mexico. Waylee only dropped under four yards a carry in two losses this season, Boise State and UNLV.
While the offense isn’t missing its regular pieces, it will be without offensive coordinator Tim Polasek as he transitions to the head coaching job at North Dakota State.
On the other side of the ball, Gibbs leads the team in tackles and will play a critical factor in the game on Saturday. The All-Mountain West First Team linebacker plays a pivotal role on defense by stopping the run. Gibbs has forced the second most turnovers on the team — behind safety Wyett Ekeler —with two forced fumbles and an interception.
The special teams of Wyoming can undoubtedly be special. Kicker John Hoyland has had a stellar career with the Cowboys, but around halfway through the season, he found himself in his worst statistical year. Hoyland missed his first extra point of his career and was one for seven on field goals in the second half of the season. If the Arizona Bowl comes down to a field goal, will the red shoe be able to come through?
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Cowboys or Rockets?
The Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl will not be a barn-burning shootout whatsoever. With both teams taking hits on the offensive side of the ball due to the transfer portal and coaching changes, it is unlikely that either team will explode for 30 or more points. Toledo only allows about 20 points per game, while Wyoming gives up about 23, both teams within the top 50 of FBS. The Cowboys and Rockets possess solid defenses that have helped them win games. Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell — an All-American Second Teamer by AP, FWAA, AFCA and Sporting News — will be an influential factor in the passing game as he is second in the country in passes defended.
Wyoming does not have just one player who stands out on defense but a combination of many. The all-around player Ekeler’s presence offers potential for lost yards and sacks with blitzes, pass coverage and interceptions, and stripping the ball away from carriers. Defensive back Wrook Brown leads the team in interceptions, and Devonne Harris and Braden Siders can get the quarterback as they have the most sacks on the team.
This season was a challenge for the Cowboys defense. They have already faced three top-20 rushing yards per game backs in Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico), Jonathon Brooks (Texas) and Ashton Jeanty (Boise State). Even with the absence of Boone for Toledo, Wyoming has proven to limit the rushing attack of backs.
In addition, the combination of defensive proficiency and offensive efficiency has allowed the Cowboys to be up 10 in the turnover margin this season. Compared to Toledo at two below even, it is more likely to see a player in brown and gold get a takeaway.
As a wild prediction, with a turnover for one of the teams, there will be a defensive score in this bowl game. Whether it is a pick-six or a scoop and score, a tight game will be decided by a defensive touchdown. Based on the turnover margin and lack of turnovers by the Wyoming offense, a particular team is more likely to be the one to get it.
The bowl game could also become the staple for Bohl’s tenure at Wyoming. Currently sitting at 60-60 in his career for the Cowboys, a victory gives him a winning record, while a loss ends his career in poor taste. This game means more for Bohl, and while he has always preached the mantra of taking a season game by game, his final game will feel better with a win. The Pokes know it is his final game and will play with more intensity and desire to win a bowl for Bohl. In a storybook ending for the season, some players’ careers and Bohl, the game will be close but end in a Wyoming victory.
Wyoming 23 – Toledo 20
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