The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play Game 1 of an NL Wild Card Series Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is slated for 2:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Phillies won 4-3
Philadelphia got a little leaky down the stretch after playing .642 baseball in June, July and August (52-29). The Phillies struggled the week heading into Labor Day, and they went just 7-13 over their last 20 games of the season. The Phils finished 7th in runs per game (4.61) and 15th in runs allowed per game (4.23).
The Cardinals rode a solid-but-slightly-underperforming start to the season and a monster August to an eventual 93-win campaign. The Redbirds went 22-7 in August and were 17-14 between Sept. 1 and the end of the season.
St. Louis has the better pitching and defense: its 3.93 runs allowed per game ranked 9th in the regular season, but its sneaky-good offense (4.77 RPG, 5th MLB) has struggled of late. The Cardinals own a .642 OPS over their last 16 games.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Phillies at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) posted a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP across 26 regular-season starts.
- Did not allow an earned run in 14 IP over 2 starts against St. Louis
- Spent some time in August and September on the IL with a forearm injury and has made just 3 starts since Aug. 20
- Clocked a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road
Quintana (6-7, 2.93 ERA) notched a 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 165 2/3 IP and 32 starts.
- Acquired at the trade deadline and has made 12 starts for the Cardinals
- Logged a 2.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 48:16 K:BB across 62 2/3 IP over those 12 turns
- Has not yielded a home run over 11 starts since Aug. 4
Phillies at Cardinals odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Cardinals -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Claim your risk-free bet up to $350. Catch the excitement and start betting with Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Bet now!
Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
Jose Quintana has certainly been on a roll, but there is some leverage to be found by digging deeper into his numbers. Quintana has faced a weak strength-of-schedule over the last couple of months, and his greatness in avoiding home runs is also likely some luckiness in avoiding home runs.
He’s allowed round-trippers on just 5.3% of fly balls across the entire season. For comparison, his mound foe Friday has perhaps also been a tad fortunate, and he exhibits a 9.8% rate.
Now bring the Phillies’ platoon numbers into this matchup. Philadelphia owns a .769 OPS against lefties and a .727 OPS against righties. Current Phillies batters have banged out a solid .758 OPS against Quintana in his career.
Looking at 1-run games and the strength of division opponents, the visitors come up with even more value here.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-112).
Run line/Against the spread
With the low total and the Cards getting last licks, STEER CLEAR of the more-juice-infused RL action.
Over/Under
There are no strong enough indicators or separators between real and expected production/prevention numbers to initiate action against a 25-cent proposition. PASS.
Want action on this game or any other MLB contests? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in CO and NJ. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]