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The top risers and fallers heading into Week 16.
This is the time of year when memories (and nightmares) are made. Of the 13 NFL games played Sunday, nine of them had a team that scored 30 or more points with three scoring 40 or more.
Dozens of players put up monster numbers. If three or four of them were in your lineup, you won. If those players were on the opposite side, see you next year. For those who survived, don’t expect the gigantic individual to move you forward. Fantasy football will return to old school quick enough.
The top risers and fallers heading into Week 16.
The list of teams that have been eliminated from playoff consideration in the NFL has grown markedly with each week. But that doesn’t mean their games are meaningless.
Pay attention to those players who are getting a look late in the season for teams that are playing out the season when the competition remains real. Often times, if somebody shines in December on a team whose season is done, get an in-road to landing a bigger role the following season.
If you’re still chasing a league title, keep your eyes on the prize. If not, put some focus to the NFL teams that have been eliminated and get an insight on their plans for next year. You may bet the edge you need to turn things around next year.
Will this inconsistent Giant come up big in the Twin Cities?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 4-10-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich wasn’t able to overcome Brett Rypien at quarterback despite a tremendous matchup opportunity, so last week was yet another bust. Momentum hasn’t been on my side this year.
Let’s see if we can’t get back on track this week and finish the season on a strong note over the next few weeks.
This one intrigues me from the basic angle of someone in this offense will have a fine fantasy day from the wide receiver position. My preferred option is the best bang for your buck, or at least lineup spot, and it has to be Slayton for that reason. While Richie James ultimately may outdo him, he doesn’t offer as high of a ceiling as Slayton. James’ floor is a little safer, though.
We’ve seen a mild resurgence from Slayton in 2022. He has averaged 10.5 PPR points on the year — his best per-game rate since being a rookie in 2019 (12.1 PPR/game). Averaging a career-high 15.8 yards per reception, the vertical threat’s six outings of 11-plus PPR points this season actually account for one more than his five performances of fewer than 10 points. Since Week 7, his floor is 6.2 points.
Some of the risk being assumed here stems from him failing to get into double figures in three of the last four contests as well as having scored no touchdowns over the most recent five outings.
Minnesota fortunately hosts this one in a dome, which is an enticing additional factor that could sway gamers toward Slayton when so many teams are playing outdoors in horrendous weather conditions as a massive storm is being delivered in time for Christmas.
Slayton has drawn target totals of 10, six, eight, three, and seven, respectively, over the last five weeks. The Giants have serious question marks at the position, so competition for touches isn’t a major concern. It isn’t meant to be if he cannot generate meaningful fantasy numbers on even six looks.
The Vikings are capable of hoisting a large number of points onto the scoreboard, and the Giants have allowed 28-plus to their opponents three times in the last five contests. A result of having such a strong offense tends to be a defense seeing excessive passing volume as enemies try to keep pace or climb back into a game.
Since Week 10, wideouts have averaged the fourth-most receptions and second-most yards per outing, helping manufacture the fourth-best fantasy matchup in PPR (5th in standard). Minnesota is one of three teams to have allowed more than 1,000 yards to wideouts in that time frame, and this matchup is 22.6 percent better than average during those five weeks. In the last three games, this one sits 34.3 percent easier to exploit. Twenty-three times in 2022 a wideout has made it into double-digit PPR land, and nearly 40 percent of those efforts have come after Week 10 wrapped up.
Slayton is a risky option by any standard, and even against a defense that has allowed so much work to wideouts, Daniel Jones needs to play better than average to put the receiver on the right track. Most quarterbacks have had their way with the Vikings in ’22, and Jones should be good enough to make Slayton a nice lineup stocking stuffer.
My projection: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD (19.7 PPR fantasy points)
It might require a Christmas miracle for this one to pay off…
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 7-8-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
Last week’s choice was Miami Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker. He finished with 16.8 of the 21.9 PPR points I forecasted, just barely sneaking in as a win at 76.7 percent of the projected total (4-68-1 as his final stat line). I’ll be the first to admit, even vs. a lousy New York Jets’ run defense, I’m still having a hard time reconciling the numbers Duke Johnson posted in that one.
Looking at Week 16, I turn to a quarterback whose fantasy football ceiling generally is low due to being mostly a game manager, but he can spin it when needed. And I’m banking on him having to do just that …
Normally, someone of Cousins’ status wouldn’t make the cut …. I tend to view it as being too easy of a selection, but when he’s down his top running back, may still be without one of his best receivers, and also is facing arguably the best secondary in football, things can get dicey in a hurry.
The risk here is three-fold. Just because Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook for 10 days after he tested positive for COVID-19, it doesn’t mean the Vikes will abandon the running game. Alexander Mattison was activated from his stint on that same reserve list, and he’ll draw his fourth start of 2021. He has been rock-solid in relief of Cook thus far, and Los Angeles is best attacked on the ground.
Which brings me to the second serious concern, being the Vikings may resort to dinking and dunking their way up the field when they actually do throw the ball. In that scenario, it will take a tremendous volume of passes or serious yards after catch to make up for a lower per-attempt average from Cousins. I fear this scenario the most because of pressure from Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd forcing quick throws. And there’s that Jalen Ramsey guy to worry about, too.
Finally … will Cousins have Adam Thielen (ankle) available to catch passes? Justin Jefferson is an absolutely monster, but this projection will feel much safer if the veteran wideout rejoins the fold.
What I do like: The Rams are far from bulletproof against quarterbacks, and we’ve seen several guys get into respectable fantasy territory vs. this defense in 2021.
A look at the best stat lines vs. LA this year:
While Cousins isn’t a threat to run it like Murray, he still has at least one rushing touchdown in each of his seasons as a full-time starter. And when your best rushing weapon isn’t on the field, it slightly improves the odds we see a short plunge from the veteran. That said, I have a fundamental grievance with projecting a rushing TD for a traditional pocket passer.
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Eight different QBs posted fewer than Carson Wentz‘s 20.1 fantasy points against this defense, which came in Week 2, and every name on that list is someone you’d expect to see, minus Russell Wilson (post-surgery).
Can Cousins get into the 20s without a rushing TD? That will be the decider in whether he can really go big against this group. It all comes down to game script. Should the high-power LA passing offense get it going early against a Minnesota defense that has been throttled through the air in 2021, my answer is a resounding “yes.” … If not, then start getting nervous. I do, however, fully expect the Rams to destroy Minnesota’s secondary, leading to increased passing by necessity from Mike Zimmer’s group.
I don’t think we’re at the point of questioning whether Cousins is a fantasy starter vs. the Rams as much as the debating, “Just how good can he be vs. this mostly scary defense?”
Presuming Thielen returns from a two-game absence, Cousins’ odds of approaching 25 fantasy points greatly improve. If not, then all bets are off. The veteran has thrown at least two touchdowns in seven straight and eight of the last nine games, including the last two without this star receiver, which is encouraging. He has topped 275 yards four times in that same window and seven times on the year. In the three games without Cook, Cousins accounted for 28.4 points against Seattle, 18.2 vs. Detroit in a game Mattison generated 28.3 PPR points of his own, and then 25.6 points against the Lions in Week 13. None of those units are in the same universe as the Rams, but Seattle is considerably better vs. the pass than the run.
Given the narrow scope of playoff teams remaining at this point, this one might be best for daily fantasy sports lineups. Cousins wasn’t drafted as a starter in most traditional leagues, so depending upon one’s options, he’s a worthwhile gamble for finishing between QB7-12 this week.
I hope Santa is good to everyone, especially when it comes to delivering a Christmas miracle in fantasy leagues. Stay safe and healthy, and if I’m wrong about Cousins, just know I’ll blame it on the eggnog!
My projection: 332 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions, 8 rushing yards (25.4 fantasy points)
Check out where your roster options fit into our Week 16 start/bench tiers.
Player analysis and projections can be found in our Start/Bench Tool customized to your myHuddle league scoring and rosters. All player listings by groups are in no particular order.
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Risers and fallers of the late-stage fantasy football season
At the start of the 2021 season, I made the bold prediction that I thought all four teams in the NFC West had the potential to finish the season with winning records, which is why I was bullish on drafting fantasy players from the division. Barring the Seattle Seahawks running the table, that isn’t going to happen, but another division has stepped up to live out the big talk I had for the NFC West.
The AFC North has found itself in a situation where all four teams control their own destiny to win the division and make the playoffs in the final three games. All four teams have looked dominant at times and awful at others, but their fantasy players are all filling up playoff lineups. When you’re fighting for a fantasy championship you need to have all your players in games that mean something. It would appear every game the teams from the AFC North play from here on through are going to have playoff implications, which is all fantasy owners can ask for with titles on the line.
Here is the Week 16 Fantasy Football Market Report:
When the Titans lost Derrick Henry, the organization’s first idea was to dust off Adrian Peterson. After three weeks, they gave up on that theory and went to Plan B. Foreman was signed in the days after Henry went down and, over the last three games, he has looked a little like the franchise – and played like him as well. In those three games, he has rushed 54 times for 264 yards and a touchdown – topping 100 yards in two of them and scoring a TD in the other. He won’t make fantasy owners forget Henry, but he likely won’t be a journeyman after this season.
The Falcons have been an offense in transition. Future Hall of Famer Julio Jones was allowed to leave. Calvin Ridley left the team for personal issues. All-World Kyle Pitts has been up and down. The most consistent player over the last month has been Gage. He has help keep the Falcons’ dim playoff hopes alive over the last four games, catching 29 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. He has become a go-to flex option and still is affordable in daily play as he makes his case moving forward on a Falcons team in transition.
You don’t look to Detroit for fantasy players, especially in the playoffs, but Reynolds is making the most of his opportunity. The Lions are his fourth team in three years, and he has been little more than a practice squad live body. But with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both down, he has been thrust into the mix against a pair of good defenses (Denver and Arizona). He has responded with 37 carries for 195 yards. Like Foreman and Gage, Reynolds is making his statement to his current team and the rest of the league that he has the skills to be a factor in the NFL.
The rookie QB hasn’t been flashy and doesn’t bring a lot in the run game, but he has started putting together some solid fantasy numbers. In huge games with playoff implications against the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, he has thrown for seven touchdowns and, in the last two of those games, he has 310 and 299 passing yards. They aren’t the kind of numbers that have him in fantasy playoff lineups, but his stock is on the rise heading into 2022.
The time share between Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard is getting less all the time. Pollard has 119 carries to Zeke’s 201, but Pollard’s rushing average (5.7 yards) is 1.4 more than Elliott’s (4.3), and he had a better rushing average in eight of the last nine games both have played. Anyone who has Elliott isn’t going to bench him, but the Cowboys are consistently getting more yardage out of Pollard. As games increase in importance, he may be seeing even time as the Cowboys season gets more intense and impactful with each coming week.
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Few players run as hot and cold as Cooper. Over the last seven games, he has played in five of them and, in those games, he has just 15 catches for 188 yards and one touchdown. An average of three catches for 37 yards over five games (technically seven) isn’t what fantasy owners bought into, and there has to be legitimate concern about continuing to play him with a fantasy season on the line.
With all the weapons Burrow has, huge numbers are expected every week. Over his last six games, he has accounted for just eight touchdowns (six passing, two rushing) and has thrown for 190 yards or less in three of his last five games. Considering that he never had fewer than two touchdowns in his first eight games and 20 TD passes in those contests, his drop-off has been pronounced. He isn’t the must-start player he was the first half of the season.
Through his first five games of the season, Williams was averaging 95 yards and scored six touchdowns, making him one of the breakthrough players of the early season. However, in his last nine games, he has more than 61 receiving yards just twice, less than 50 yards in five of them, and has scored just one touchdown. The Chargers offense has been lighting things up, but Williams hasn’t been a part of it enough to warrant staying in fantasy lineups.
It’s been the tale of two seasons for Gesicki. He is among a growing number of fantasy tight ends those of whom without one of the Big 3 are looking to step up and make a statement to be a TE that plays every week. Over his first seven games, Gesicki had three games with 85 or more receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Over his last seven games, he has fallen flat, registering 54 or fewer receiving yards in every game and scoring no touchdowns. Considering Miami has gone a six-game winning streak in that stretch, it has become apparent that the Dolphins don’t need Gesicki to come up big for them to win.
The fact Golladay hasn’t scored a touchdown for the Giants after signing a big free-agent contract is bad enough, but his production has completely flat-lined. In his first four games, he was productive, catching 17 passes for 282 yards. In his last seven games, he has caught just 14 passes for 195 yards and no TDs – an average of just two catches for 28 yards a game, which not only will get you benched on a fantasy team, it will get you waived.
