Tag: UFC Fight Night 224 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 224: Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Wood (19-5-0) | Fili (22-9-0)

Wood takes the walk looking for a 3rd consecutive victory. He has topped Charles Jourdain and Charles Rosa in the past 2 fights, both via unanimous decision. Each of his last 4 outings has gone the distance, and he is 3-1 via unanimous decision during the span.

Wood’s last stoppage came in a 3rd round KO/TKO loss to John Dodson in February 2020. His last win inside the distance was a submission victory over Jose Quinonez in March 2019.

Fili bounced back with a split-decision victory over Bill Alego in September after suffering a 41-second knockout loss to Joanderson Brito in April 2022. He has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 bouts and 10 of the previous 13 outings.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Wood -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Fili +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +145)

UFC Fight Night 224: Wood vs. Fili picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

This is a solid venue for the Englishman Wood (-225) as he fights on his home soil. However, it isn’t a great idea to lay more than 2 times your potential return. In addition, Fili (+175) is quite dangerous, as he holds a 5-inch reach advantage and will be able to keep Wood at a distance while picking and choosing his spots to get close to the Briton.

I still expect Wood to win, but look for METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: WOOD BY DECISION (+100) at even money to be the best play on the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is just a little too expensive for my liking as you have to lay twice your potential return, and that’s just too much risk and not enough reward, even if both of these fights have a penchant for having their bouts decided by the judges more often than not.

AVOID, and focus on the method of victory instead.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at O2 Arena in London, England. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at noon ET and the main card is on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Aspinall (12-3-0) | Tybura (24-7-0)

Aspinall is looking to rebound after a 15-second knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes in the main event in July 2022. That quick defeat was his first at the UFC level after 5 consecutive stoppage victories.

Aspinall has never been to past the 3:59 mark of the 2nd round in any of his 15 fights as a professional, and only 1 of his 6 fights at the UFC level has made it out of the opening round.

Tybura takes the walk with a pair of decision victories over Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov in his last 2 fights. He is 7-1 across the previous 8 outings, and his lone loss was via unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov at UFC 267 in Oct. 2021.

The Polish-born fighter hasn’t been dropped since consecutive KO/TKO losses in 2019 against Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Aspinall easily outpaces Tybura in significant strikes landed per minute at 7.41-to-3.55 and is much more accurate, landing 67.40% of those strikes to 59.38% for “Tybur”. The Brit is much better in the ground game too, posting an impressive 4.00 takedown average, with 100% accuracy, and a solid 2.00 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Tybura +365 (bet $100 to win $365)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +700 | No -2000)

UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs. Tybura picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Betting Aspinall (-500) straight up is not a recommended strategy, as he will cost you 5 times your potential return. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward.

Instead, look to the round betting section instead. The books are expecting a quick finish, and I am, too. ROUND BETTING: ASPINALL IN ROUND 1 (-115) is a solid option, as he’ll be fired up fighting in front of the home crowd and Tybura will be eating a lot of punches early.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-2000): Fight to go the distance? is perhaps one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) is a little on the expensive side, but worth playing if you are a little on the conservative side. However, I like ROUND AND METHOD OF VICTORY: ASPINALL BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+100) a little better at even money.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s bantamweight bout in the main event, Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Holm (15-6-0) | Bueno Silva (10-2-1)

Holm is the former title holder in the division after famously dropping Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in 2015. However, she failed to defend her title in a loss to Miesha Tate at UFC 195 in 2016 and has since had 3 shots at the title and lost each of them. She is still a dominant force in the division, and “The Preacher’s Daughter” has managed wins in 3 of the past 4 bouts, all via Unanimous Decision.

The 41-year-old veteran has gone to the judges in 6 of the past 7 fights overall, with the lone stoppage coming in a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Amanda Nunes for the title at UFC 239 in July 2019.

The southpaw Holm has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, and she has a 0.92-to-0.38 takedown average advantage. Bueno Silva has managed 4.20 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.17 for Holm. MBS is also much more accurate, posting a 62.23% significant strike accuracy percentage to just 49.51% for Holm.

The 31-year-old Brazilian fighter has won 3 straight fights, including submission wins in each of the past 2 bouts against Lina Lansberg and Stephanie Egger.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Holm -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Bueno Silva +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -210 | Under +155)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +140)

UFC Fight Night 224: Holm vs. Bueno Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The younger BUENO SILVA (+145) is a strong value as a moderate underdog. While Holm has won 3 of her last 4 fights, she suffered a split-decision fight against Ketlen Vieira in May 2022.

While Holm has the reach advantage, Bueno Silva is quicker and is a punching machine. MBS has won 3 straight fights, including 2 straight submission victories.

Over/Under (O/U)

The one thing Holm seems to be able to do is avoid the knockout. Win or lose, the former champ’s bouts seem to involve the judges more often than not.

However, Yes (-185): Will the fight go the distance? is still a little expensive for my blood. Over 4.5 Rounds (-210) is an even worse value.

Instead, consider BUENO SILVA (+400) ON POINTS in the round betting, if you’re a little more on the adventurous side.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Jack Della Maddalena and Bassil Hafez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Maddalena vs. Hafez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Della Maddalena (14-2-0) | Hafez (8-3-1)

Della Maddalena heads to the octagon with 4 victories in 4 tries since making his UFC debut in January 2022, all of which have been via 1st round stoppages. That includes a submission victory over Randy Brown at 2:13 of the opening round at UFC 284 in February.

The 26-year-old has posted an impressive 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute while posting a 51.55% significant strike accuracy percentage. He also has a 0.57 submission average.

Hafez makes his UFC debut at 31 years old. He previously fought at Fury FC, posting a 3rd-round knockout of Evan Cutts last time out at Fury FC 75 in February. The welterweight has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 outings.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Della Maddalena vs. Hafez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Della Maddalena -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Hafez +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +160 | Under -210)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)

UFC Fight Night 224: Della Maddalena vs. Hafez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The veteran Della Maddalena (-550) will cost you 5 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive, even as part of a multi-fighter parlay.

The Aussie has won 3 of his 4 fights via KO/TKO in the 1st round since making his UFC debut. However, taking Della Maddalena by KO/TKO or DQ (-275) is still just too steep of a price. Instead, consider DELLA MADDALENA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (-120) for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Will the fight go the distance? No (-750) will cost you 7 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s obviously too expensive too. Under 1.5 Rounds (-210) will also cost you more than 2 times your return. It’s probably best to just AVOID, and focus on the method of victory.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s featherweight bout on the main card, Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 — also known as UFC on ESPN 49 and UFC Vegas 77 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Dumont (9-2-0) | Chandler (5-1-0)

Dumont, a.k.a. “The Immortal”, enters the octagon with 2 straight unanimous-decision victories and 5 wins in her last 6 fights overall. Each of her past 6 bouts has gone the distance since she was knocked out in the 1st round by Megan Anderson in her UFC debut on Feb. 29, 2020.

Chandler won her UFC debut last time out on Oct. 1, 2022, dropping Julija Stoliarenko via KO/TKO in the 1st round. The 32-year-old southpaw has won 2 of her 6 pro bouts by way of KO/TKO and has 1 submission victory. She is 2-1 when the fight goes the distance and is left to the judges.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dumont -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Chandler +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

UFC Fight Night 224: Dumont vs. Chandler picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The battle-tested DUMONT (-145) is the better play, as Chandler will be facing her most experienced opponent, by far.

The Team Suoto fight knows how to do enough to impress the judges, and Saturday night should be no different. She enters with back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Karol Rosa and Danyelle Wolf and should make it 3 straight after doing enough to get by Chandler.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance?, and Over 2.5 Rounds (-250), are just too expensive, you can still make money on the result.

Look to the method of victory, and play DUMONT BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) on the 7-way line at even money for a much better value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Andre Fialho and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Fialho has dropped 2 straight fights, both via KO/TKO, suffering a 3rd-round setback against Muslim Salikhov in November and a 2nd round defeat to Jake Matthews in June. Each of his past 4 fights has ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses.

Buckley is also on a 2-bout losing streak. He was knocked out by Chris Curtis in the 2nd round at UFC 282 last time out in December and suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov in early September.

Buckley has a 2-inch reach advantage and a slight 3.87-to-3.17 significant strikes landed per minute. Neither of the fighters is particularly accurate with the strikes, with Fialho posting a 41.43% significant strike accuracy to 35.01% for Buckley. Buckley is better in the takedown game, posting an average of 1.23 to 0.00 for Fialho, with a 30.43% takedown accuracy percentage.

UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fialho +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Buckley -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

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UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Records: Fialho (16-6-0) | Buckley (15-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Buckley (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s risky business on a guy entering the octagon on a 2-bout losing skid.

PASS, and look to the method of victory instead. Fialho hasn’t been great on defense, and playing BUCKLEY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-105) at near even money on the 5-way line is a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-250): Fight to go the distance? is a little too costly, and there is no value in playing it.

However, I do think OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play as I don’t think we’ll see a Round 1 result. Even the 2 fights that Fialho was knocked out went to at least 2:24 of the 2nd Round.

The past 5 fights for Buckley have lasted until 2:49 of the 2nd Round or later, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Emily Ducote vs. Loopy Godinez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Emily Ducote vs. Loopy Godinez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s catch weight bout on the main card, Emily Ducote and Loopy Godinez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Ducote won her UFC debut against Jessica Penne in mid-July by unanimous-decision. She returned to the octagon in December and was beaten by Angela Hill, also by unanimous decision. The judges have determined the winner in 4 of her last 6 pro bouts.

Godinez picked up a split-decision win over Cynthia Calvillo in her most recent bout at UFC 287 in early April. Godinez also made her UFC debut against Penne, suffering a split-decision loss in April 2021, and has gone the distance in 6 of 7 fights since — including her last 5.

Ducote has a 2-inch reach advantage and holds a big 6.23-to-3.42 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Godinez is slightly more accurate on strikes at 56.64%, while Ducote lands just 50.26%.

UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ducote +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Godinez -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -300 | No +210)

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UFC Fight Night 224: Ducote vs. Godinez picks and predictions

Records: Ducote (12-7-0) | Godinez (9-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

GODINEZ (-160) has more experience at the UFC level, and she’ll use that to her advantage against the relative newcomer.

Godinez has won 3 of her last 4 fights, is much better in the ground game and is slightly more accurate with her significant strikes. As long as the Mexican fighter can avoid the big blow from Ducote, who holds a 2-inch reach advantage, she’ll get it done.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-300): Fight to go the distance? is too expensive, costing you nearly 3 times your potential return. AVOID.

Instead, look to the Method of Victory, playing GODINEZ ON POINTS (-110) at nearly even money. Each of her past 5 fights has gone the distance, including 4 unanimous decisions, and both of Ducote’s bouts at the UFC level have gone the distance as well. The judges are likely to be involved.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Shahbazyan halted a 3-bout losing streak last time out with a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Dalcha Lungiambula at UFC 282 in December. He had been knocked out in 2 of those 3 losses while suffering a unanimous-decision defeat against Jack Hermansson in the one fight that went the distance.

“The Golden Boy” has had 4 of his past 5 fights end in KO/TKO, with 2 wins and 2 losses across the stretch. Just that fight against Hermansson has gone the distance in 7 contests since joining the UFC.

Hernandez heads to the octagon with a 3-fight win streak in tow with 2 submission victories. He posted a 3rd-round submission victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in mid-September last time out.

Four of 6 fights have ended up via submission (3-1) for “Fluffy” since he arrived at the UFC level in Feb. 2019, while a 5th fight ended with a KO/TKO loss to Kevin Holland in May 2020. His lone fight to go the distance was a unanimous-decision victory over Josh Fremd at UFC 273 in April 2022.

UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Shahbazyan +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Hernandez -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez picks and predictions

Records: Shahbazyan (12-3-0) | Hernandez (10-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Hernandez (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return if you want to play the favorite on the 2-way line. That’s not a recommended play, so AVOID.

Instead, HERNANDEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even money is a much better bet on the Method of Victory 5-way line. You’ll be a winner there as long as Hernandez wins by any method other than decision.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-210): Fight to go the distance? is way too expensive, costing you more than 2 times your potential return. That’s too risky, and not a good long-term betting strategy playing such heavy favorites.

Check out some Round Betting options instead. I like HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 2 (+450) and HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 3 (+900). If he wins in one of those rounds, you will lose one end, but you’ll still be quite a bit in the black.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a woman’s strawweight bout in the main event, Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Dern takes the walk looking to bounce back from a majority decision setback against Yan Xiaonan in the main event of Fight Night 211 in October. The Brazilian fight is 0-2 in main event fights as she previously lost to Marina Rodriguez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 194 in Oct. 2021. Dern has gone the distance in each of her last 3 bouts.

Hill was in a tailspin, going 1-5 in a 6-bout stretch from May 2020 to May 2022 but she has picked up unanimous-decision wins over Loopy Godinez in August and Emily Ducote in December to right the ship. Hill has gone the distance in each of her past 9 bouts.

Hill holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage and has an impressive 5.68-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hill also has a 29.27% takedown accuracy percentage but Dern may be more dangerous on the mat with a 1.82 submission average to just 0.10 for Hill.

UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dern -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Hill +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

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UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill picks and predictions

Records: Dern (12-3-0) | Hill (15-12-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HILL (+150) is a solid value as a moderate underdog. Dern has dropped 2 of her last 3 fights, both main events, and Hill should be able to do enough to wow the judges to get the victory.

Hill lands a lot more punches than Dern and should be able to do more to impress judges. The only way Hill will be at a disadvantage is if Dern can get this fight to the fence or mat and keep it there.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the best play on the board.

Dern has gone the distance in each of the previous 3 bouts, while Hill has needed the judges to decide a winner in each of her past 9 outings.

It’s hard to believe that this number isn’t much, much higher, so take advantage. However, AVOID playing Over 3.5 Rounds (-200), as risking 2 times your potential return is just too expensive.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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