Tag: Toxicity

Eagles’ offense has EPA edge, but do Cowboys own Week 18 advanced stat title?

Think the Cowboys have been light years ahead of the Eagles this season? Think again. The stats notebook shows a fairly even matchup between the rivals. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFC East features two playoff teams this season in the 11-5 Dallas Cowboys and 9-7 Philadelphia Eagles. With both teams facing injury challenges and COVID zapping their rosters, there has been a lot of chatter regarding how many starters will play and for how long. The word out of Dallas this week has been that the Cowboys plan to play their starters with a goal of winning, but their starters are compromised, especially on defense.

The Cowboys have won four of their last five games but were unable to beat the Arizona Cardinals last week, losing 25-22.  The Eagles are currently on a four-game winning streak, picking up a win over the Washington Football Team last weekend.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced Stats: Cardinals first real Cowboys competition in months

Cowboys and Cardinals split in four critical win indicators with both teams featuring explosive offenses and stingy defenses. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

It’s Week 17 in the 2021 NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions. With the division wrapped up, Dallas can focus on seeding from this point onward.  Currently the No. 2 seed via a three-way tiebreaker with the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have the potential to finish anywhere in the top four with two games remaining.

Coming off of a 56-point decimation of the Washington Football Team, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and sit at 11-4 on the season. Dallas will host the Arizona Cardinals in a Sunday afternoon game and at home, the Cowboys have averaged 38.4 PPG and 426.1 YPG.

Arizona is 10-5 on the season but have lost five of their last eight games after an impressive 7-0 start to the season. They are one game behind the Rams in the NFC West and currently hold the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals have played particularly well on the road this year with a 7-1 record, averaging 30.3 points per game and 2.5 takeaways in those games.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced Stat Notebook- Cowboys have edge in DVOA but EPA too close to call

When looking at the advanced metrics for Week 13, they favor the Cowboys but the margins are too close to call. Here’s a look at DVOA, EPA, Toxicity, ANY/A and Success Rate. From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will head to New Orleans to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football.  Entering Week 13 with a 7-4 record, the Cowboys will look to bounce back from a Thanksgiving Day overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games to the AFC West, but will now face conference opponents for the remainder of the season.  There were a lot of additions and losses this week that are worth noting:  CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Demarcus Lawrence will return from injury while Terrance Steele, Mike McCarthy and five assistant coaches will miss the game due to COVID-19.

The New Orleans Saints currently have a 5-6 record and have lost four straight games.  The Saints played on Thanksgiving as well, losing 31-6 to the Buffalo Bills. The big news for the Saints this week is that Taysom Hill has taken first team snaps at practice at quarterback and is expected to start this week.  Head coach Sean Payton has not officially announced Hill as the starter over Trevor Siemian as they are monitoring Hill’s foot injury at practice.  They are expecting Alvin Kamara to return for the Cowboys game as well.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Toxicity aside, Cowboys enjoy advanced stat edge over Raiders in Week 12

Who’s more toxic? That team from the desert might have a chance when it comes to the big play, but does Dallas win out overall? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday afternoon as part of their annual NFL Thanksgiving showcase. The Cowboys all-time record on Thanksgiving sits at 31-21-1. Recent Thanksgiving games haven’t gone well for Dallas, with their last win happening in 2018 against the Washington Football Team.  The Cowboys and Raiders have played two times on Thanksgiving, 2009 and 2013, with Dallas winning both times.

The Cowboys enter this week with a 7-3 record after falling to the Kansas Chiefs in a 19-9 game that saw the offense struggle to move the ball consistently.  This will be the fourth and final game against the AFC West division, with the Cowboys currently holding a 1-2 record with a strong road win against the Los Angeles Chargers and two ugly losses against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys are looking for their eighth win of the season and a winning record against the AFC, after beating New England in Week 6.

Quarterback Dak Prescott will be without one of his top weapons again with Amari Cooper missing his second game due to COVID-19.  They may be without CeeDee Lamb as well after Lamb suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Raiders will travel to Dallas with a 5-5 record on the season and a three-game losing streak. Adversity has been the keyword to the Raiders season after firing their Head Coach Jon Gruden and then their two first round picks (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette) from the 2020 draft due to off the field issues. Their offense has had difficulty scoring points as of late, averaging 14 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Cowboys and Raiders all-time record is squared up at 6-6.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Inside the Numbers: How advanced stats see Cowboys-Chiefs Week 11 matchup

Which team’s more toxic, explosive? Which defense more successful? Who’s better per play and when opponent strength is considered? Breaking down acronym soup. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFL’s Week 11 slate features a matchup of two explosive offenses as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys enter the game with a 7-2 record and are coming off of an impressive, 43-3 home win against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cowboys scored on the opening possession and never looked back, putting up 431 yards of offense and winning both the turnover battle and time of possession by wide margins.

The 6-4 Chiefs had a dominant performance of their own as they beat down the Las Vegas Raiders, 41-14. Any win over a divisional opponent is a good one, but doing so in a lopsided affair, is even better. The Chiefs gained over 500 yards of total offense and won their turnover battle and time of possession as well.

With both teams coming off of highly productive weeks, this game does not lack in storylines.

Notably, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott will play each other for the first time in their careers. Both QBs are MVP candidates and together have combined for 45 touchdown passes. Head coach Mike McCarthy and Andy Reid have plenty of experience against each other going back to playoff matchups in their previous roles with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have young linebackers who are off to terrific starts to their careers in Micah Parsons and Nick Bolton. They each feature explosive wide recievers (Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper) matched with strong tight end play by Travis Kelce and Dalton Schultz.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Advanced Stat Notebook: Week 9 metrics show Cowboys should saddle Broncos

Cowboys, wild horses… this can only go one way folks. @ProfessorO_NFL looks into EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxicity to see which team has the Week 9 advantages. Mount up.

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday for an early afternoon showdown. The Cowboys are riding a six game winning streak and are expected to have quarterback Dak Prescott back from injury. Prescott missed the Vikings game last week with a groin injury suffered against the New England Patriots.

The Broncos come to town in a bit of a slump, dropping four of their last five games. They were able to end their losing skid with a 17-10 win against the Washington Football Team last week. The Broncos found themselves in the news with a big trade, sending pass rusher Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams for two Day-2 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics.

Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 7 on the season.

Advanced stats size up Cowboys-Vikings matchups in event Prescott plays

On Halloween night, whose advanced stats put more of a scare in their opponents? Sizing up a closer-than-the-records-indicate SNF matchup. @ProfessorO_NFL takes a look at DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity advantages.

The 5-1 Dallas Cowboys will travel north to face the 3-3 Minnesota Vikings in primetime on Sunday Night Football. With both teams coming off bye weeks and getting reinforcements off injured reserve lists, this should be an exciting matchup.

The Cowboys are riding a five-game winning streak with the Vikings winning three of their last four contests.  Things go out the window if Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is unable to play, but the data is what it is. Meanwhile, the upcoming schedule for Minnesota isn’t kind with the Ravens, Chargers and Packers next in line.

With the teams facing off on Halloween, this matchup features dual two-headed monsters in the rushing game, lethally accurate quarterbacks and dangerous wide receivers.  Which side should feel confident and who should be afraid?

Here’s a review a some key advanced statistics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 6 on the season.