Key Matchups: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

Key Matchups: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

The Jacksonville Jaguars hope to pull off a significant upset as they travel north to take on the Detroit Lions in a matchup with plenty of disadvantages.

Jacksonville enters Week 11 with the projected No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft, according to Tankathon. The Jaguars are 2-8 and coming off a defensive slugfest of a loss against Minnesota without franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is out again this week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.

Head coach Doug Pederson will not have a ton of edges against the Lions. Jaguars Wire looks at a few key matchups that will be critical against the Lions on Sunday afternoon.

Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Detroit’s secondary

This is a big moment for the rookie receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. has been one of the better wide receivers in the league this year, an impressive feat for a rookie. Now demanding double-coverage, per Pederson, Thomas will face an uber-talented Lions secondary that will likely continue that trend this weekend.

Thomas’ strength is his vertical game but he is much more than that as a receiver. He has developed into an all-around playmaker who threatens all three levels of the field with his speed, agility, fluidity and route running.

The challenge in Detroit will be taking on cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold and safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.

There is an argument that Branch has had a defensive player-of-the-year-worthy season. And while Detroit’s defense has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (244.2) in the NFL this season, it also gives up the third-fewest passing touchdowns per game (0.8).

If Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor manufacture touches for Thomas, the Jaguars could find themselves in scoring positions more often. Thomas is bound for his true workhorse game and this week could be the one.

Jacksonville DE Josh Hines-Allen vs. Detroit OT Taylor Decker

Despite last week’s loss to Minnesota loss, Jacksonville edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen got the better of former teammate Cam Robinson, tallying eight pressures and forcing quarterback Sam Darnold into some rough decisions with the football.

According to Next Gen Stats, Hines-Allen leads the Jaguars in pressures and will line up opposite Lions left tackle Taylor Decker, whose pressure rate ranks in the bottom ten among players at his position at 10.6%.

This is one of the few Achilles heels on Detroit’s offense and there aren’t many of them. Decker is an overall sound tackle but arguably the weak link on the best offensive line in the NFL.

Hines-Allen has been a handful this season and has been continuously worthy of the contract extension that secured him as a true franchise cornerstone on a lowly team. A big day from the former Kentucky standout could keep this game a competitive one through all four quarters.

Jacksonville’s coaching vs. Detroit’s coaching

If you have watched any football between these two teams, it is clear there is a sizeable advantage. If not, this game features a Lions coaching staff that has one of the best offensive minds in the NFL in Ben Johnson, and a defensive coordinator who has his defense playing competitive football in Aaron Glenn.

Not to mention, Detroit is led by Dan Campbell, one of the most respected head coaches in football. It would be fair to expect him to get the most out of his players.

The Jaguars have been under a microscope for most of the season. After entering the season with playoff expectations, those expectations aren’t likely to be met unless they pull off a miraculous run in the final seven games.

If Pederson and the rest of his staff want to tone down the noise about their futures in Jacksonville, they must coach the best games of the season or at any point of their Jaguars tenure.

Last week, there were glimpses of the Jaguars generating more pressure with more blitzes. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen must coach a perfect game in this instance and find a way to force Lions quarterback Jared Goff into bad decisions for the second straight week.

Offensively, as stated in the aforementioned key matchup, having the game plan around getting the ball to Thomas is critical. Travis Etienne Jr.’s return to health helps with the loss of Tank Bigsby. Leaning on Thomas and Etienne will ease the pressure on backup quarterback Mac Jones.

It may seem like a tall task against one of the best coaching staffs in the league headed by Campbell, but the Jaguars have pulled off miracles under Pederson before. They could do it again in Detroit.

Lions cornerbacks among the best in single coverage in 2024

Lions cornerbacks among the best in single coverage in 2024 and we’ve got the data to prove it

Last season, one of the Achilles heels for the Lions was at the cornerback position. They clearly knew it; hence them drafting two corners to start the draft (Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw) and signing Carlton Davis in free agency. So far, that investment has paid off.

Arnold and Davis, in particular, are currently two of the better cornerbacks when it comes to playing in single coverage this season, according to a chart from Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball on Twitter). Both are playing single coverage at more than a 60% rate (the graph used a minimum of 100 coverage snaps) and both are above average (around -0.33) in terms of their separation grade, which used a scale from -2 to +2.

Davis is second on the team with eight passes defended while Arnold is fourth with five. Both are also among the top five on the team in tackles – Davis has 43, Arnold has 32.

Neither cornerback may be elite right now, but it’s much better play than what they got last season and it’s just one reason why the Lions are 7-1 and in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

Terrion Arnold: Breaking down the Lions rookie CB game film from win over Vikings

Terrion Arnold: Breaking down the Lions rookie CB game film from win over Vikings

Terrion Arnold has been somewhat polarizing through the first few weeks of his Detroit Lions career. The first-round cornerback from Alabama has looked decent in man coverage, but his play has been pockmarked with penalties and the occasional blown assignment when not playing man.

Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7, Arnold performed pretty darn well against an explosive offense. Playing on the road against the unbeaten Vikings, Arnold’s work at outside CB effectively reflected the entire Lions team for the day. Arnold is the subject of this week’s Detroit film breakdown.

As always, I grade the individual player for every snap. Arnold gets a plus for a positive play and a minus for a poor one. Not every play earns a plus or minus.

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He started off slowly but then turned it up more than a notch to outshine the competition.

Arnold’s day certainly started out rough. After the first play, a screen to the other side, Arnold was victimized by overzealousness on Minnesota’s second offensive play.

That is, of course, the Aaron Jones 34-yard touchdown. Arnold is responsible for the outside containment on the left-end run, but he overreacts to WR Jordan Addison (No. 3) motioning inside. Because safety Brian Brian is on a designed run blitz to the inside gap, there’s nobody behind Arnold.

Rookie mistake, and it cost the Lions a touchdown. Big minus for No. 0 on this one:

 

Arnold earned his first plus on the next drive, and he did so being in zone coverage. On 3rd-and-short, Arnold correctly identified that the TE (Johnny Mundt) would chip and release and ran to the spot where Mundt was heading. Perfectly executed option elimination. The play wound up being a first down conversion to Justin Jefferson just over a step-too-shallow Brian Branch, perhaps No. 32’s only real mistake of the game.

Arnold’s improved read-and-react in zone here is a very welcome development. He struggled to trust his eyes in the Week 3 win over Arizona, and this is a tangible improvement that reflects hard work and good coaching.

Plays that are negated by penalty don’t technically exist, or get factored into grades for outlets like PFF. But I’m giving Arnold a plus for his man coverage on Addison on the play where Carlton Davis was (correctly) called for defensive holding. Addison was San Darnold’s first read and Arnold was on his hip with inside technique, not allowing the wideout to break to the inside. And Arnold did that without relying on being handsy.

The next few drives produced two plusses (one on a play negated by an illegal formation penalty on the Vikings) and two minuses in coverage–both in zone. Write those minuses in thin pencil, however; Arnold erred on the side of caution and didn’t give up bigger plays. Better to be too deep/outside than too shallow/inside in Detroit’s zone scheme.

Arnold earned a plus on the Brian Branch INT for his perfect handling of transition coverage. He even pointed to Branch on where Addison was heading. Branch might not have needed the extra help, but that’s still a heady move from a rookie, showing his ability to incorporate film study into in-game action.

Arnold had a lot less to do after that drive, in part because he was so precise in his man coverage responsibilities. Twice he was part of lockdown coverage by the entire secondary that forced Darnold to scramble because there was nowhere to throw the ball. Those are plusses for Arnold.

Final tally

Arnold had 13 plusses and six minuses for the game. Nearly all of the scores came in coverage; Arnold had one plus and one minus (that fateful first-drive TD) in run defense.

The man coverage was fantastic. No. 0 picked up seven plusses and one minus in man coverage. Zone was not as sharp but still a respectable five plusses and four minuses. Two plusses and one minus came on plays that were nullified by penalties and therefore aren’t necessarily reflected in the box score or PFF grades.

This was a very strong game from Arnold as a rookie. Give him a bonus plus for not committing a penalty. And that’s phrased deliberately–I didn’t see one viable infraction that could have been flagged beyond one marginal illegal contact that was inconsequential to the play. That’s very real progress for Arnold, too.

Lions pass coverage tops the NFL in forcing tight-window throws

The Detroit Lions pass coverage tops the NFL in forcing tight-window throws by opposing QBs

Pass coverage has been a bugaboo for the Detroit Lions for several years. Zone, man, hybrid–it didn’t matter. The Lions secondary and linebackers were rotten in coverage.

The organization made a focused effort to fix that last offseason, and through six weeks it’s paying off very well. The overhauled cornerback room–with the top four CBs all newcomers in 2024–is spearheading the tightest coverage in the NFL in terms of forcing tight-window throws.

Judah Fortgang of PFF calculated the percentage of tight-window throws forced by each defense. The Lions came out on top at 27.9 percent, well above the 2nd-ranked Ravens at 22.9.

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Some of that is a function of a heavy pressure rate; receivers get more time to gain separation when the quarterback has more time to throw. However, new outside CBs Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis both fare quite well in the single coverage metric breakdown, too.

In this graphic, the higher to the upper right, the better. And that’s where Arnold and Davis reside, with slot Amik Robertson not far below them.

 

The result is a Lions defense that ranks 8th in points per game allowed, up from 23rd in 2023, and produced seven INTs in five games after picking off just 16 in 17 games a year ago.

Lions rookie CB Terrion Arnold keeps getting better

Lions rookie CB Terrion Arnold keeps getting better by the week

It’s been far from perfect through four games played for Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold. He’s dealt with a hand injury and knee injury but that hasn’t kept him off the field for very long. Arnold’s played in 257 defensive snaps and that is 3rd most for the Lions this season.

Through all of that, Arnold has played up and down for the first quarter of the season. He’s allowed 16 receptions for 164 yards and one touchdown. Fortunately, he’s gotten better each week in coverage. The last two weeks, Arnold has been targeted 17 times but he’s only allowed 6 receptions for 65 yards.

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The bigger concern is the penalties that Arnold continues to get called for in these games. Through four games, he’s been called for eight penalties and five of those have been pass interference penalties. For the Lions, it seems evident that they’d rather have a physical defender over a defender that shy’s away from contact and consistently gets lost in space.

When listening to Dan Campbell and the Lions coaching staff, there doesn’t appear to be that much concern about Terrion Arnold. Specifically about the penalties. Every Wednesday, Campbell speaks with 97.1 The Ticket and yesterday, Campbell talked about Arnold. He said, “It’s something we talked about. We had our big practice yesterday, our big first down, full-pad practice. Those are to really work your craft and really hone in your skill, get better at it.”

Campbell continued and said, “there’s gonna be this give and take that goes down if you’re gonna compete with a receiver. Look, it’s a point of emphasis and he’s gonna be fine. He just keeps working through it and he knows what it is, but we need him to continue to compete and challenge on the perimeter.”

Overall, Arnold has  been in-phase when playing in coverage. He’s not allowing very big passing windows for quarterbacks and it feels like those windows will become non-existent soon. Sure, he’s got to improve on when and when not to grab a receiver with his hands but as the season continues, it looks like Arnold is only going to get better.

Lions CB coach Deshea Townsend not worried about DPI penalties for Terrion Arnold

Arnold has more DPI penalties through 3 weeks than all but one other entire NFL team, but Townsend likes what he sees

Terrion Arnold has been impressive in coverage through his first three games at cornerback for the Detroit Lions. The first-round pick very much looks the part of a shutdown outside cornerback with his quickness, instincts and attitude.

There’s been a consistent issue for Arnold, however. Pass interference.

Arnold has been flagged for defensive pass interference four times in three games. That’s more than every other team in the league through three weeks except the Broncos all by himself.

The Lions cornerbacks coach, longtime NFL CB Deshea Townsend, isn’t worried about the flags on Arnold. He knows they’re an inevitable part of playing corner in the NFL.

“That’s the thing in the league; if you’re a DB and you’ve played, you’ve had at least one PI called on you,” Townsend said via Justin Rogers of the Detroit Football Network. “That’s just the nature of the business. He just has to keep playing. That’s the one thing that we have to continue to do is not worry about the penalties and just go play.

I always kind of joke around and tell them, ‘They can’t call 60 PIs, so just keep being close.’ That’s what we want. He’s been close in a lot of coverages and that’s the main thing. We want to continue to work on those little things and being close in coverage.”

Townsend continued on his first-round pupil,

“He’s been great. I look back to my rookie year and his year, and I would take his over mine. He’s been doing a great job.”

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Marvin Harrison Jr. vs Terrion Arnold did not disappoint

The Week 3 matchup between 1st rounders Marvin Harrison Jr. and Terrion Arnold did not disappoint

Two first-round rookies squared off against one another over Week 3, with Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold going at it in the desert.

While the two didn’t match up exclusively against one another, the reps between the first-rounders did not disappoint–for fans of either team.

Arnold, the No. 24 overall pick from Alabama, looked very solid in staying in phase and providing tight coverage on Harrison. For his part, the No. 4 overall pick and first non-QB selected, also looked the part of a dynamic top wideout.

Matched up head-to-head, Harrison caught two passes on six targets, gaining 31 yards and picking up first downs on both, per Pro Football Focus. Arnold broke one pass up, and another was intercepted by safety Kerby Joseph on a play where Arnold and Joseph had bracketed Harrison expertly.

Harrison did manage a touchdown in the game, but that was against CB Carlton Davis on a play where Arnold wasn’t on the field due to a minor injury.

For a much more in-depth breakdown of the matchup, including why PFF got the stats wrong, check this out from Lions Wire earlier in the week.

Lions Week 3 film review: Terrion Arnold vs. the Cardinals

Breaking down the game film of Lions rookie CB Terrion Arnold vs. the Cardinals and stellar Arizona rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Most weeks, the Lions film review I do covers the entire team. This week is a little different. While I’ll roll out a general observations notebook later, I wanted to do a specific focus on first-round rookie Terrion Arnold.

There were a couple of reasons for this. First, my real-time game observation was that Arnold played better than his lowly PFF grade (54.2) indicated. Secondly, the draftnik in me wanted to see how he stacked up against Cardinals first-round rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona’s top offensive threat.

Completion No. 1

Arnold’s first play that he was involved in was Arizona’s fifth snap of the opening drive. Harrison and Greg Dortch are stacked twins to Arnold’s side (right side of the defense), with Harrison on the line inside of Dortch. Safety Brian Branch is tight on Harrison, but as soon as the routes begin, Branch runs with Dortch (and blankets him) outside. Harrison runs a 15-yard “in” route with Arnold over the top and shading outside, with safety Kerby Joseph as inside help.

Arnold passes Harrison off to Joseph as the wideout continues across the field and QB Kyler Murray holds the ball in the pocket. Arnold quickly sees that Harrison is the only viable option for Murray (everyone else is completely suffocated in coverage) and closes quickly, arriving just a half-sec after the ball does on the right sideline.

By the way Arnold and Joseph played this, it appears each thought the other had the responsibility on Harrison on that side of the field. Arnold reacted instantly when Joseph turned away, but it was too late to prevent the completion on a play where Murray held the ball for 4.8 seconds before throwing.

Injury

On the next play that counted (an offensive holding negated a run play), Arnold did a fantastic job playing press-man on WR Michael Wilson out of the slot. Perfect coverage. Unfortunately, Arnold got his leg grazed by a diving Murray as he tackled the QB on a scramble down the field.

Arnold was not on the field for Arizona’s touchdown on this drive, a Murray-to-Harrison pass. He also missed the entire next Cardinals drive, a 3-and-out, replaced by Amik Robertson.

Completion No. 2

On his next play, the Cardinals tested Arnold. Man coverage on Wilson, lined up tight on the defensive right. Arnold immediately bails and plays outside technique. It’s a 17-yard in-route, and Wilson gains a step on the break inside. Arnold again closes quickly, but Murray hits Wilson on the other side of the field on a play where the QB had 4.1 seconds to throw thanks to a nifty pocket shuffle. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez didn’t have enough depth on his coverage drop to help Arnold out here.

It was all for naught, as the Cardinals were flagged for offensive holding.

DPI

After Arnold did well in setting an edge on a run play, the rookie got flagged for a defensive pass interference call on a lob throw to Wilson up the left sideline. Arnold did a great job not taking the cheese on a not-very-good stutter move from Wilson. He’s in strong position, but Wilson’s early reaction to the ball is a great “sell” to the official; Wilson puts both hands up and Arnold has both hands on him at that point and isn’t looking for the ball. Two flags flew.

Was it legit pass interference? Yeah, probably. If it happened to a Lions receiver, you’d better believe fans would agree. This got called more because of how well Wilson sold it than any egregious infraction by Arnold, in my opinion.

PBU

Just before halftime, Arnold played very well on Arizona’s drive that resulted in a Matt Prater field goal. Primarily in zone for the drive, Arnold and the Lions switched to man for a play with 13 seconds left, knowing the Cardinals were going to try and take a shot.

They did, and Arnold was in lockstep with Harrison. He effectively ran the route for the Cardinals wideout and broke up Murray’s pass, though Harrison did have a bit of a play at the ball.

What stood out here is how well Arnold kept outside technique in his coverage. He knew his help, in this case Brian Branch, was inside and Arnold couldn’t give an inch to the outside. And he did that expertly. Playing to the help is not something Lions cornerbacks have done well of late, but Arnold already has a very good feel for it.

The Kerby INT

Arnold was integrally involved in Kerby Joseph’s interception in the end zone to end Arizona’s first drive of the second half. The Cardinals got tricky and snapped the ball quickly before many Lions, Arnold included, were ready. Arnold (outside) and Joseph (inside) had outside bracket coverage on Harrison and they both did very well despite not being able to communicate pre-snap.

This is a play the Cardinals clearly drew up to attack the rookie. Murray never looked elsewhere; he had TE Trey McBride streaking away from a too-shallow Jack Campbell at the 15-yard line underneath the Harrison route.

Overall

Frequent readers know I like to do a simple plus/minus evaluation for individual players in the spotlight. In this game, Arnold earned 12 plusses and five minuses, one of which was the questionable pass interference call.

In man coverage, there were three minuses but eight plusses. That’s a great ratio for any cornerback, let alone a rookie playing on the road for the first time against a dangerous offense. Arnold had one minus earned on a run play, but overall looked very alert and active in run defense too.

The lower-mid PFF score appears to be heavily influenced by the penalty. Matched up against Harrison in coverage, Arnold allowed one catch for 17 yards; I couldn’t find on tape the alleged second completion PFF credited to Arnold’s coverage by Harrison, though they misidentified the first completion he allowed to Wilson. Harrison did catch another with Arnold in initial coverage, but he had passed him off to Joseph in high-middle help by the time of the throw and catch.

Lions postgame injury updates after the Week 3 win in Arizona

Lions postgame injury updates after the Week 3 win in Arizona, with info on Brian Branch, Derrick Barnes and more

The Detroit Lions came out on top in a physical battle in Arizona, besting the host Cardinals 20-13. Several Lions players suffered injuries during the Week 3 game.

DT Alim McNeill: The big man suffered an upper body injury on Arizona’s final drive of the second quarter. He was ruled out with a shoulder injury after the Cardinals’ first drive of the third quarter.

LB Derrick Barnes: Starting LB Derrick Barnes left with a knee injury very early in the game and was ruled out as the team returned to the field after halftime. He was injured on a cut block.

After the game, Lions head coach Dan Campbell indicated that the injuries to McNeill and Barnes were not expected to be season-ending. Campbell said of McNeill and Branch’s injuries,

“I can’t say they’re not going to be long-term. But I don’t feel like it’s something where we’re worried about season-ending.”

TE Sam LaPorta: No. 87 left on a cart just before halftime, apparently injured on the Lions’ third touchdown of the first half while blocking near the end zone. He was spotted with ice on his lower left leg on the sidelines. LaPorta did return to the game but wasn’t involved in the game plan.

CB Terrion Arnold: Rookie CB Arnold left in the first half with a knee injury but returned two drives later. He played throughout the second half.

DL Levi Onwuzurike: The versatile lineman briefly left the game in the first quarter but returned on the next series after testing out his legs on the sideline.

S Brian Branch: Branch left after a violent helmet-to-helmet collision late in the game. The team announced shortly after the game that Branch is in the NFL’s concussion protocol.

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Terrion Arnold earns his first NFL fine

Lions rookie CB Terrion Arnold earns his first NFL fine for a personal foul in Week 2

Lions rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold got an unpleasant welcome to the NFL from the league offices. Arnold was assessed with the first fine of his career for a penalty in Detroit’s Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers.

Arnold earned a fine of $11,255 for a face mask penalty during the game in Ford Field. It was a pretty clear penalty.

The Lions first-round pick has struggled with penalties in his first two games. Arnold has been hit with three defensive pass interference fouls as well as the personal foul for the facemask infraction.

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