10 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 10 games?
10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 10
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Results So Far: 53-47-1
This is a serious week that calls for serious predictions.
Besides a few massive whiffs here and there – seriously, thanks SO much, TCU, for that unnecessary TD pass in the final 20 seconds against West Virginia – the biggest complaint comes from those of you wanting bigger picks and bigger calls for the bigger games.
Of course money doesn’t care if it’s on Akron or Alabama, it’s all the same, but every once in a while it’s a little easier to dive in head first into the giant battles with more known parts.
Just ask anyone who thinks they have the MAC clocked this year.
I’ve got a crazy gimmick idea I’ll save for next week with the alternative top ten picks – aka FADE FADE FADE. For now, though, with so much on the line with the Week 10 showdowns, we’re not messing around.
This starts with the giant games everyone will be watching, and yes ATS lovers, these are all going to be picks against the spread …
Except for the two at the very end.
Click on each game for the preview
LINE Alabama -13.5
PICK LSU
Full disclosure, I’m not the hugest fan of this pick only because it goes against my DNA to ever pick against Alabama.
I got a hive just writing that.
I know Alabama is amazing when Nick Saban and his $25 million coaching staff get two weeks to figure it all out, and I know Tennessee destroyed LSU 40-13 in Death Valley.
That loss to the Vols was a day game, and we all know LSU is a totally different problem to deal with in Baton Rouge at night.
Tennessee, Texas, and Arkansas were probably the three best teams on the Bama slate so far. All were away from Tuscaloosa, and each one was a problem in its own way.
The Tide will win, but in a nasty road environment against a team that had two weeks off after beating Ole Miss by 25, give me the double digit home dog.
9. Tennessee at Georgia
LINE Georgia -8.5
PICK Georgia
More full disclosure, I think I’ve picked against Tennessee in every game this year. Yeah, that has served me well, so do with this as you will.
8.5 is a LOT to be giving the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, but I’m just going come out and say it …
I know this is supposed to be all analytical with logic and rationale, and I hate projecting feelings on an entire team of 18-to-23-year-old kids as if it’s a singular thing. However, I can’t get past the idea that Georgia isn’t going to take being ranked No. 3 all that well.
That might be just that one little bit of extra juice that takes this team to a whole other level of focus.
It’s not like the defending national champ is crawling into this. It won its last three games over Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Florida by a combined score of 141 to 30. As much as everyone wants to hate on the close call to Missouri, that was the only time anyone came closer than 17 points against this bunch.
Again, Tennessee has made me look ridiculous time and again – I’ve gotten used to it – but as much as I love that the world finally figured out how great Hendon Hooker is, I think this will be about ol’ Stetson Bennett and that Dawg D.
And for the third humongous game of the weekend before we get back to business …
LINE Clemson -3.5
PICK Clemson
I missed on Notre Dame against Syracuse last week – for some reason I ignored just how banged up the Orange were – and I totally overloved BYU before Marcus Freeman’s running game went off in Vegas. However, for the most part I’ve been pretty good on my Irish picks.
I took them to cover against Ohio State, thought they’d struggle with Stanford, and had them beating North Carolina. I think I’ve got this one, and it comes down to one simple premise.
Clemson’s NFL defensive front got two weeks off to get ready for this.
It’s Clemson, so of course there won’t be anything easy on the way to the win. However, Notre Dame probably can’t win if it doesn’t run for 200 yards, and Clemson isn’t going to allow that to happen.
Oh, and for all the struggles and problems, no one has come closer than six against the Tigers.
LINE South Carolina -6.5
ATS PICK Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is all rested after two weeks off before a home game. It gave Missouri problems in a 17-14 Commodore loss on the road, and South Carolina is coming off an ugly 23-10 loss to Mizzou just last week.
It’s okay. This is an up-and-down Gamecock team, and I’m believing things are about to swing back up.
South Carolina couldn’t run a lick on the Tigers – it’ll run just fine on Vandy. That, and Commodore passing game won’t be accurate enough. It has hit more than 65% of its passes just once, and it lost to Ole Miss by 24.
South Carolina is 5-0 against teams that didn’t connect on 65% of its passes, and 0-3 against teams that did. That, and along with a good day from the ground game, Spencer Rattler will throw for at least 250 yards.
Speaking of Missouri …
LINE Kentucky -1.5
ATS PICK Missouri
I’ve been trying so hard to make Kentucky a thing. However, my timing is off.
I thought it would get by Ole Miss – nope. Even with quarterback issues I thought it would get by South Carolina – nope. I got the hint and took Mississippi State – nope, the Cats beat the Bulldogs. And then last week I honestly thought UK had the knuckleball style and passing game to maybe catch Tennessee in an all-time sandwich game. Triple nope.
I’m due.
Will Levis is gutting it out, but he’s really hurt. His toughness is a plus for the pro scouts to see, but it’s going to be a problem against a sneaky-amazing Missouri defense that hasn’t allowed 300 yards of total offense in any of the last three games and in four of the last five.
All three Kentucky losses came when it allowed more than 140 yards. Missouri will run for 140, the D will come up with two takeaways, and the secondary should hold up just enough against a game Levis to get the upset.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Minnesota at Nebraska
