Advanced stats preview for Saturday’s game between Texas, TCU

The Longhorns should win decisively if they play to their ability on Saturday.

The No. 7 Texas Longhorns (8-1) face the TCU Horned Frogs (4-5) on Saturday night. The matchup favors Texas in a number of areas.

Advanced stats analyst Parker Fleming shared how the game looks on paper. According to his simulated preview, the Longhorns are likely to come out on top. Fleming’s stats have Texas winning by an approximate score of 29-19.

The matchup leans toward the Longhorns for several reasons. Many of those reasons involve Texas’ high defensive efficiency to offset offensive question marks.

The Longhorns’ biggest weakness comes in offensive efficiency where the team ranks No. 104 in Eckel Rate. The stat measures touchdowns or first downs inside the 40 yard line. In other words, Texas isn’t performing well in enemy territory.

Fortunately for the Longhorns, TCU isn’t performing well in offensive Eckel Rate either. The Frogs rank No. 98 in that category. The team also lags behind on early down defense where the Texas offense has thrived on early downs.

Fleming’s model gives the Longhorns a 77.4% chance to win on Saturday. They will look to capitalize on the favorable matchup at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

TCU vs Texas Prediction Game Preview

TCU vs Texas game preview, prediction, and breakdown for the Week 11 game on Saturday, November 12

TCU vs Texas prediction, game preview, how to watch. Week 11, Saturday, November 12


TCU vs Texas How To Watch

Date: Saturday, November 12
Game Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
How To Watch: ABC
Record: TCU (9-0), Texas (6-3)
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TCU vs Texas Game Preview

Why TCU Will Win

So how are the Horned Frogs doing this?

In an even Big 12 with the worst teams able to at least hang with the best, TCU has been able to stand out by doing the little things right.

There aren’t a lot of penalties, six turnovers in nine games, and all of that goes along with the fourth-best defense in America and an ultra-efficient passing game.

For all of the good things Texas does, it doesn’t control the clock and is wildly inconsistent. The pass came was explosive against Oklahoma State, but it couldn’t connect on enough throws in the loss. The run defense has been great, but the team is 1-3 when allowing 140 yards or more.

TCU has rushed for over 140 yards in every game and has the pop to keep up with whatever the Longhorns are able to do.

But, really …

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Why Texas Will Win

So how are the Horned Frogs doing this?

It was able to knockout/miss most of the top quarterbacks in the big games, there wasn’t a big non-conference win – it’s not TCU’s fault that Colorado is awful – and it doesn’t hurt that the two conference road games so far were against Kansas and West Virginia.

Texas has the most offensive firepower TCU has faced starting with one of the hottest running games going.

Bijan Robinson has been great as part of an attack that hit 200 yards on the ground in three of the last four games – the win over the great Iowa State defense was the lone outlier. TCU’s defense has yet to allow 200 yards on the ground, but it gets run on.

Texas will start running and keep feeding the attack.

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What’s Going To Happen

It’s not like Texas has been that good.

It’s been conveniently forgotten – especially by the College Football Playoff committee – that Texas lost to a mediocre Texas Tech and was the last team Oklahoma State was able to score on.

But both of those games were on the road.

Texas doesn’t do anything easily. The defense has been hit-or-miss, and TCU will be able to move the ball however it wants to.

Being at home will matter, though.

TCU has only turned it over multiple times twice all year, and those came in the two Big 12 road games.

It’ll be close throughout with lots of big plays and momentum shifts with Texas getting out of the shootout on a late field goal and defensive stop.

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TCU vs Texas Prediction, Line

Texas 37, TCU 34
Line: Texas -7.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
TCU vs Texas Must See Rating (out of 5): 4.5
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