The No. 7 Texas Longhorns (8-1) face the TCU Horned Frogs (4-5) on Saturday night. The matchup favors Texas in a number of areas.
Advanced stats analyst Parker Fleming shared how the game looks on paper. According to his simulated preview, the Longhorns are likely to come out on top. Fleming’s stats have Texas winning by an approximate score of 29-19.
The matchup leans toward the Longhorns for several reasons. Many of those reasons involve Texas’ high defensive efficiency to offset offensive question marks.
The Longhorns’ biggest weakness comes in offensive efficiency where the team ranks No. 104 in Eckel Rate. The stat measures touchdowns or first downs inside the 40 yard line. In other words, Texas isn’t performing well in enemy territory.
Fortunately for the Longhorns, TCU isn’t performing well in offensive Eckel Rate either. The Frogs rank No. 98 in that category. The team also lags behind on early down defense where the Texas offense has thrived on early downs.
Fleming’s model gives the Longhorns a 77.4% chance to win on Saturday. They will look to capitalize on the favorable matchup at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.
TEXAS @ TCU pic.twitter.com/0oxFPrXrxI
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 7, 2023