Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Drafting these players could get you in deep trouble this season.
Overrated players achieve that dubious distinction because one fantasy football owner is willing to take a risk on a talented player with question marks or baggage of some kind. When a player is questionably tabbed to be a weekly fantasy starter, someone will make a case that they aren’t overrated and only figure it out after it’s too late.
These are five players who will be drafted to play significant roles on fantasy rosters but may struggle to live up to their draft slotting.
When will the star tight end be available for fantasy gamers?
The Minnesota Vikings made a pair of significant moves when they acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson in 2022. They gave the Detroit Lions a second-round draft pick to acquire him and, after the season, made Hockenson the highest-paid tight end in NFL history, signing a four-year, $66 million extension that has him under contract through 2027.
In 10 games with the Vikings after the trade, Hockenson caught 60 passes for 519 yards and three touchdowns, establishing himself as a critical weapon in Minnesota’s passing game. He built on those numbers in 2023. In 15 games, despite injuries that resulted in Hockenson catching passes from four different quarterbacks, he landed 95 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns.
Then disaster struck.
On Christmas Eve against the Lions, Hockenson suffered a torn ACL that ended his season in an instant and put his short-term future in limbo. What makes his injury doubly troublesome is that Minnesota underwent an offensive transformation since his injury. Kirk Cousins was lured away in free agency with a massive contract from the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings signed veteran Sam Darnold to act as a bridge quarterback, and traded up in the draft to assure they would land Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
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While Hockenson has been rehabbing his injury, when training camp opened he was immediately placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list, where he will remain for a while. He is missing out on the reps others are getting with Minnesota’s two new quarterbacks, which prevents Hockenson from getting critical timing and familiarity with his QBs.
The typical physical recovery time for a torn ACL is six to nine and often up to 12 months before players look like themselves again. Most would believe that would potentially make Hockenson available to return sometime in September, likely missing the first couple of games. However, due to post-injury swelling in his knee, Hockenson wasn’t able to have surgery until Jan. 29 – more than a month after the injury.
The Vikings coaches are saying positive things about Hockenson’s progress, but running and cutting in a T-shirt and shorts on a side practice field is very different than playing with pads on against defenders with bad intentions. As a result, Hockenson’s fantasy value has taken a significant hit.
Even on an aggressive timeline, a standard recovery wouldn’t have Hockenson available until at least mid-October. Minnesota has its bye in Week 6, so it would make more sense for the Vikings to have Hockenson start the season on the PUP list and play in Week 5, if ready. If not, he gets more time to rest with a return after the bye week. The Vikings’ medical staff has been cautious in pushing injured players back into action (see Justin Jefferson last season), so Hockenson won’t be rushed.
Despite his injury, Hockenson has an ADP around TE16, which would make him a premium TE2 in 12-team leagues. There’s a lot to like about Hockenson when he’s on the field – he’s caught four or more passes in 22 of 25 games as a Viking – but most savvy fantasy managers greatly devalue players who are guaranteed to miss time and serve no purpose for multiple weeks on a roster. If Hockenson’s ADP remains this high, let someone else make the pick and have one fewer roster spot than others by design for the first six weeks (at a minimum).
A pivotal year is ahead for the former first-round draft choice.
A year ago, one could make a pretty strong case that Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson was the only legitimate weapon the team had in its passing attack. Fast-forward to now, however, and that is no longer the case thanks to the development of wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (90-912-5), drafting of Jameson Williams (knee), and the veteran additions of Josh Reynolds, who was claimed off waivers last year, and DJ Chark Jr., who was signed from the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.
As always when talent is added, it serves as something of a double-edged sword for Hockenson heading into his fourth season. On the plus side, the former first-round pick can no longer be the central focus for opposing defenses whenever quarterback Jared Goff drops back to pass. Of course, the downside is that Goff will have more options at his disposal, including Reynolds, who he’s familiar with from their time together with the Los Angeles Rams, and St. Brown, who emerged as a very reliable target over the final month-plus of 2021.
While the pathway to fantasy relevance looks a bit more daunting on the surface for Hockenson, there are some caveats worth exploring. For starters, it’s unclear when Williams will return from the torn ACL he suffered during the National Championship Game in January. Odds are the Lions will be careful with their prized wideout in a year when they’re not expected to compete for a playoff berth, so he may not even be a factor until later in the season.
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St. Brown closed incredibly strong to be sure — 51 receptions (on 67 targets), 560 yards, and five touchdowns over the final six games — but it’s important to remember that Hockenson was lost for the season to a thumb injury in Week 13 and missed the last five weeks. Clearly, the Iowa product’s absence had a lot to do with St. Brown’s massive uptick in usage, and with both guys being possession options there’s no reason to believe Goff would heavily favor one over the other.
Beyond usage, durability is another issue with Hockenson, as he has suffered season-ending injuries in two of his three NFL campaigns. In 2019, it was an ankle issue, and last year’s thumb injury required surgery to correct. He’s healthy now and ready to go, but missing nine games in three years must be viewed as at least a minor red flag, even if the injuries aren’t the sort to cause long-term concern.
While not a true boom-or-bust type player, Hockenson has moderate variance between his ceiling and his floor. He doesn’t belong in the top five at the position, but he could slide into that next group of five, making him a midrange or low-end TE1.
It’s time to catch up on all of the NFC North’s fantasy-based changes.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
