Tag: super bowl betting

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The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up to square off in Super Bowl LIV, which kicks off from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens Sunday night. It’s a matchup between two of the best offenses in the NFL this season, though they get the job done in different ways.

The Chiefs feature a pass-heavy attack with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, while the 49ers lean on their running game and use quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as a complement.

Super Bowl prop bets are aplenty each year, and one of the most intriguing is Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins’ receiving yardage line. BetMGM sportsbook has set the Over/Under at 48.5 yards receiving, which is right on par with his 2019 average of 48.1 yards per game.

Sammy Watkins’ Super Bowl LIV prop bet: Receiving yards: 48.5

The line is the same on both side of the total, set at -112 for both Over and Under 48.5 yards. Watkins is the No. 2 wide receiver for the Chiefs, but he’s the third option in the passing game – behind wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.

Watkins’ last seven games have been a mixed bag, which does nothing to help project how many yards he’ll rack up during the Super Bowl. In those games, he’s totaled 19 receptions for 325 yards with one touchdown. It’s an underwhelming stat line, to say the least, but he’s been more productive in the postseason than he was toward the end of the regular season.

In his two playoff games, he caught two passes for 76 yards against the Houston Texans, and seven passes for 114 yards against the Tennessee Titans. That’s good for a total of 190 yards on nine receptions. With the way he’s been playing the last two weeks, making big plays in the passing game, I’m inclined to take the OVER (-112) on this line.

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For the most part, the opportunities have been there for Watkins. He’s been targeted at least five times in 10 games this season, but only twice did he go over 100 yards receiving. You may remember he started the 2019 season with a nine-catch, 198-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars – that was also the last time he found the end zone on a reception.  In nine games, he had at least 49 yards, including both postseason games.

The issue with Watkins is his boom-or-bust tendency. He had four catches for at least 30 yards this season, but 24 of his 52 receptions went for fewer than 10 yards. He averaged a career-low 12.9 yards per catch this season and only 7.5 yards per target – down from 9.4 in 2018.

What works in Watkins’ favor is the fact that the Chiefs lean heavily on their passing attack. Mahomes has thrown 35 passes in each of his last two games, completing 23 passes in each. He’s not afraid to take chances, either, so expect him to take at least a few shots downfield to Hill, Watkins and rookie Mecole Hardman. With Hill and Kelce commanding a lot of a defense’s attention, it helps Watkins/Hardman break free at times in single coverage.

It could only take one or two catches for Watkins to go over 48 yards, so I’m going with the OVER (-112) and so should you.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Over profits $8.93 if Watkins catches at least 49 yards worth of passes during the Super Bowl.

Want some action on this prop bet or the last football game of the season? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game now.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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