Looking at prop bets centered around Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s receptions and receiving yards in Super Bowl LIV.
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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is expected to be one of the stars of Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we’ll look at BetMGM‘s prop betting odds and lines for Kelce’s reception and yardage projections in the big game, and make our best bets for Super Bowl LIV.
After catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 51-31 comeback victory over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Kelce was held to three catches and 30 yards on four targets in the AFC Championship against the Tennessee Titans.
The five-time Pro Bowler totaled 97 receptions, 1,229 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. He recorded more than five receptions on 10 occasions.
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Only four teams allowed fewer receptions per game to tight ends than the 49ers’ 4.1. Kelce will be heavily targeted by QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as the Chiefs’ No. 1 option in the passing game, but the Niners do a great job of limiting yards after the catch.
I’d expect a drop in his efficiency after averaging 12.8 yards per reception in the regular season, but I’m taking the OVER 5.5 (-147) as Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy scheme to keep him involved, especially on third downs and near the goal line.
Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receiving yards: 76.5
Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports
No team allowed fewer receiving yards per game to tight ends in the regular season than the 49ers. They surrendered just 34.5 yards per game to the position. Kelce topped this projection in each of his first four games of the regular season, but he did so just thrice more through the final 12 games and in only one of the Chiefs’ two playoff games.
As mentioned above, I like Kelce to stay involved on key possessions and stay closer to the line of scrimmage. The Niners will wrap him up down the field and limit his yards after the catch. Take the UNDER 76.5 (-111) as Mahomes and his go-to target are forced more into more of a possession-based passing attack.
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Looking at the multitude of ways to bet Super Bowl LIV, and how to get NFL action on the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.
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Legal sportsbooks across the USA have rolled out the red carpet this week for those looking to get their NFL betting action on the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Our friends at BetMGM have a wide array of sports betting options for the big game, ranging from the outright winner to the result of the opening coin toss and everything in between and beyond.
Viewers and bettors don’t even need to be fans of either of this year’s participants to get a piece of the pie. Whether you’re looking to dip your toes in the water or dive headfirst into the sports betting pool, we at SportsbookWire have you covered. Here’s everything you need to know about betting Super Bowl LIV:
Super Bowl LIV betting: Outrights
As with any other game, the three main bet types are the Moneyline, Against the spread and the Over/Under. Here, we’re looking for the game winner, the winner against the points handicap and the total points scored in the game. The same betting logic applies as to any standard game, and you should be sticking by the same research methods which got you here.
Don’t get bogged down in the added volume of analysis and predictions around the Super Bowl. Everyone has a prediction. Look for values and if the line seems too close to call, step away and simply avoid the bet.
Be sure to investigate alternate lines, as well. The Super Bowl, like most games, brings with it a broad array of secondary options, such as lines for each half or quarter. Like the underdog to win the game outright? Bet them on more profitable lines to win by 1-6 points or exactly 3 points. These secondary lines can often be overlooked by the sportsbooks and are great sources of value as the betting public generally looks only at the principle lines and odds.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
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Super Bowl LIV betting: Prop bets
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox – USA TODAY Sports
Player props
There’s no better way to stay involved in every single play of the Super Bowl than with player props. Options exist for the first touchdown of the game, last touchdown, total touchdowns and yardage totals for most offensive players involved. Defensive players aren’t left out, either. Get action on the number of sacks recorded by key defenders, or “will they or won’t they” record an interception.
As usual, quarterbacks are the stars of the show. Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo will be front and center in head-to-head competitions for statistical production, or on individual props estimating their yardage, touchdown and interception totals.
The main attraction, of course, is for Super Bowl MVP. Most players involved in the game are listed with corresponding odds from Mahomes’ +110 as the odds-on favorite to longshot Chiefs P Dustin Colquitt at +50000. Be sure to research the trends and play the odds. A QB has been named the MVP of 29 of the 53 Super Bowls to date.
If you don’t like the risk of the player props, despite more profitable odds, team props can be the better route to take. These look at the precise winning margin, which team will score first, last or most often, as well as total touchdowns or field goals for either side.
Bets can be broken down by team or combine the two sides. Look at the season-long trends for both teams to get an idea of how many times they run, pass or punt per game. How many sacks did they record and how many points did they give up on average?
Keep in mind, the Super Bowl features the best teams from the AFC and NFC. Make sure to discount outlier stats racked up against an inferior, bottom-feeding opponent early in the season.
Game props
Here, bettors can get action right from the get-go by betting on the result of the coin toss. From there, bet between the first play of the game being a run or pass, the first scoring play being a field goal, touchdown or safety.
Game props can also look at total penalties in the game or which penalty will be called first, or most often. Keep checking BetMGM throughout the week, as more and more betting options are being posted as we near Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
With all these bets, it’s important to remember the odds at the sportsbook are reflective of which side is getting the most betting action. The Super Bowl typically draws in bets in hopes of high-scoring exciting games. Always be on the lookout for the best values. The most likely result isn’t always the most exciting. Know when to be contrarian and bet against the public.
Super Bowl LIV betting: Bankroll management
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports
Despite all the build-up and hype around the event, it’s important to remember for betting purposes the Super Bowl is just another game. Sure, it marks the end of the NFL season, but sports bettors still have plenty of options throughout the year and the MLB season is just around the corner.
While there are more betting options available than any other game thus far this season, the size of your wagers shouldn’t be any different than they’ve been up to this point. Whatever your standard betting unit may be (i.e. $1, $5, $10 or $100) you should still be sticking to the same number of units for any wager as you did in Weeks 1 through 17.
Also, know your budget going into this. Carefully peruse the available betting options, take notes of bets which may be of interest, and whittle down your final choices rather than placing bets on the fly. It can be easy to get sidetracked while “window shopping.” Look for the best values and be selective.
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Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the a touchdown in Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
One of the most popular prop bets every year for the Super Bowl is picking which players will score a touchdown in the game. Over the years, there have been some surprising touchdown scorers, such as Malik Jackson, Gary Russell, Brandon LaFell, and, of course, L.J. Smith.
With Super Bowl LIV just a few days away, here are some of our favorite picks to score a touchdown on Sunday night:
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (+105)
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)
The best bet to score a touchdown on Sunday has to be Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce, who has now scored five touchdowns in his last five playoff games. When the Chiefs get close to the end zone, they often will target their big tight end. Andy Reid will also draw up plays for Kelce as a wildcat runner, making him even more dangerous in the red zone. Consider him basically a lock to reach the end zone at least once against the 49ers.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (+110)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. (Photo credit Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports)
While Tyreek Hill has yet to have a monster playoff game during his NFL career (no games with at least 90 yards receiving), Super Bowl LIV seems like the perfect opportunity for him to shine. In the last two seasons with Patrick Mahomes, Hill has scored 20 touchdowns in 28 contests. When Mahomes is looking to throw the ball deep, you can bet he is searching for Hill.
Given that 49ers have an older secondary, look for the Chiefs to attack them down the field and for Hill to have multiple chances at scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
49ers TE George Kittle (+120)
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle. (Photo credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports)
Arguably the best non-quarterback in this game on Sunday is 49ers tight end George Kittle, who was named first-team All-Pro this season. While Kittle has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season, the team may need to rely on him to do some of the heavy lifting on offense in this game. Look for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to target his superstar tight end early and often during the Super Bowl.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel (+200)
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. (Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
Much like the Chiefs with Hill, the 49ers do everything in their power to make sure rookie receiver Deebo Samuel touches the ball plenty. He’s a dynamic player who is explosive with the ball in his hands. During the 2019 season, Samuel scored six touchdowns on just 71 offensive touches. If this game turns into a shootout like many people expect, look for Samuel to get quite a few looks inside the red zone.
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (+390)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman. (Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)
If you are searching for better odds on a touchdown bet, look no further than the Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman, like Samuel a rookie tight end. His role in the offense continues to grow and he has already proven himself as a return threat. In the team’s two playoff games, he racked up 228 kickoff return yards. He has outstanding speed, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the rookie took a jet sweep for a touchdown or caught a bomb from Mahomes at some point in the game. At nearly 4-1 odds, Hardman is a fun long-shot prop bet.
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Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.
Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
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Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.
But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).
So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.
Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.
The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.
The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.
And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.
Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.
Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.
Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.
A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.
It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.
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Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the last touchdown of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
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The Super Bowl brings with it huge betting action, with traditional game bets and props. One such bet is on which player will score the last touchdown of the game.
Here are the odds for each possible player:
San Francisco 49ers
RB Raheem Mostert +650
TE George Kittle +850
RB Matt Breida +1200
RB Tevin Coleman +1200
WR Deebo Samuel +1300
WR Emmanuel Sanders +1300
WR Kendrick Bourne +1600
49ers defense/special teams +2100
RB Jeff Wilson +2100
FB Kyle Juszczyk +3900
QB Jimmy Garoppolo +5000
WR Rickie James +6500
RE Ross Dwelley +8000
TE Levine Toilolo +10000
WR Dante Pettis +10000
WR Jordan Matthews +10000
Kansas City Chiefs
RB Damien Williams +650
WR Tyreek Hill +750
TE Travis Kelce +800
WR Sammy Watkins +1500
QB Patrick Mahomes +2000
WR Mecole Hardman +2300
Chiefs defense/special teams +2400
WR Demarcus Robinson +3100
RB Darwin Thompson +2800
RB LeSean McCoy +4500
TE Blake Bell +7000
WR Byron Pringle +6500
TE Deon Yelder +7000
FB Anthony Sherman +10000
There are also +10000 odds for no touchdown in the game at all.
Which player should get your bet? That will depend on the type of game you think the Super Bowl will be.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.
First of all, don’t even worry about the no-touchdown prop. Both teams will score touchdowns.
I anticipate a close game with both teams making plays in the final quarter, meaning the biggest playmakers will be the ones making plays.
For the 49ers, that means Mostert, Kittle or Samuel. For the Chiefs, that would be Williams, Kelce or Hill.
As all players will provide a big payout — even the shortest odds of +650 will win $65 in profit for every $10 wagered. As such, hedging becomes very easy.
Two sleeper picks would be the 49ers’ Kendrick Bourne and the Chiefs’ defense. Bourne has had a postseason score. Jimmy Garoppolo can be prone to turn the ball over, and if the 49ers are behind late in the game, it is highly possible someone like safety Tyrann Mathieu could pick off a pass and return it for a score to put the game away. There could also be a strip-sack and fumble returned for a touchdown.
If you have $100 to bet on this prop, here is how I would go:
$20 each on Mostert, Kittle, Williams and Kelce
$10 on the KC defense
$10 on Samuel
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Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
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Super Bowl LIV is at the doorstep as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs prepare to do battle at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. All week here at SportsbookWire we’ll be breaking down the most enticing prop bets for the big game at BetMGM. Below, we’re looking at which players from the 49ers and Chiefs are the best bets to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV.
Six 49ers have lower odds than Bourne to score the game’s opening touchdown, including WRs Deebo Samuel (+1300) and Emmanuel Sanders (+1300), and TE George Kittle (+850). Kittle (19) and Samuel (8) each have more red-zone targets than Bourne, but he leads the team with five red-zone touchdowns off of just six targets.
Bourne scored the game’s opening touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round. If the Chiefs can stop the Niners near the goal line on their opening drive, Bourne will very much come into play.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Kendrick Bourne to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV will return a profit of $180.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (+2200)
Hardman has nearly a 50-50 chance of being the first player to get his hands on the football in Super Bowl LIV as the primary kick returner of the Chiefs. He has a postseason long of a 58-yard kickoff return against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, and he had a 104-yard touchdown return in the regular season.
If he doesn’t get to the end zone on a return, he also had six receiving touchdowns this season and a long reception of 83 yards as a rookie. Only two Chiefs receivers had more receptions of 20-plus yards than his nine in the regular season.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.
Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers (+2500)
49ers RB Tevin Coleman (+1100) led the team with five red-zone rushing scores this season, but Wilson was right behind with four. Coleman is expected to play in Super Bowl LIV, but he’s battling through a dislocated shoulder suffered in the NFC Championship. Raheem Mostert is coming off a big four-touchdown game and Matt Breida should also get some more work behind Coleman, but Wilson is worth a small play in hopes of a goal-line plunge.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Chiefs (+4000)
McCoy hasn’t played since Week 15, but it’s hard to see head coach Andy Reid keeping his long-time running back out of the Super Bowl. Should he draw into the lineup, he’ll be fresh and motivated, and he led the Chiefs in both red-zone carries (18) and touchdowns (four) this season. He’s a nice hedge against the big-play threat of Hardman and a $10 bet fetches $400 in profit.
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Previewing the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.
The matchup is set for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, as the San Francisco 49ers (15-3) will do battle with the Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) for the Lombardi Trophy. The big game takes place Sunday, Feb. 2, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the 49ers-Chiefs odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on the Super Bowl LIV matchup.
49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV preview, betting trends and notes
Both teams have cruised through the playoffs. The 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round before taking down the Green Bay Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship. The Chiefs beat the Houston Texans 51-31 and Tennessee Titans 35-24 in the second and third rounds, respectively.
The Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to Week 11. The Niners have won four straight games.
Kansas City played one neutral site game this season, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City in Week 11.
Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a season-low 77 yards while completing six of just eight pass attempts against the Packers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers didn’t need more out of him, as RB Raheem Mostert rushed 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns.
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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes played the hero in the AFC Championship to get Kansas City to its first Super Bowl since 1969 (SB IV). The 2018 MVP completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 294 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for a team-high 53 yards and another score.
San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance was Super Bowl XLVII, which it lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Niners last Super Bowl win was Super Bowl XXIX. They beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26, with QB Steve Young being named MVP.
The two teams last met in Week 3 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs won 38-27. Garoppolo passed for 251 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Mahomes went 314-3-0.
The Niners ranked second in the NFL with 29.9 points per game in the regular season. The Chiefs were fifth with 28.2 PPG.
The Chiefs (19.3) and 49ers (19.4) ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in points per game allowed.
49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV odds, betting lines and prediction
The Chiefs (-118) are favorites for a sixth consecutive game as the official home team in Super Bowl LIV. The 49ERS (+100) are even-money as slight dogs, despite their two 17-point wins in the playoffs. Both teams were 3-1 straight up against cross-conference opponents this season. San Francisco won those games by an average of 13.2 points per game, while Kansas City won by 5.8 PPG against four NFC opponents.
I like the Niners as the slight underdogs. While the Chiefs were able to contain the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry (69 yards, one TD) in the AFC Championship, the 49ers have a multi-headed attack with Mostert, Tevin Coleman (shoulder) and Matt Breida. San Francisco also led the NFL with just 169.2 passing yards allowed per game in the regular season and will force the Chiefs to turn to their little-used rushing game.
The NINERS (+1.5, -111) offer less value on the spread while being spotted just 1.5 points. The moneyline is the more profitable play with a $10 bet returning $10 in profit, while the same wager here fetches a return of just $9. If you need the extra insurance in case of a 1-point Chiefs’ win, back San Francisco on the spread as a safer play.
San Francisco was 3-1 against the spread in games against AFC opponents this year. Kansas City was just 2-2 ATS in those games. The two-week layoff favors a Chiefs side that went 6-4-1 ATS against teams with equal rest this year, while the Niners were a league-worst 2-5 ATS when playing on equal rest, but the 49ers were 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season.
Those who didn’t enjoy Super Bowl LIII and the 13-3 win for the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams should get their redemption this year. Back the OVER 52.5 (-118) with both teams happy to try their luck in a shootout. The two teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their last four games.
Both teams have hit the Under just eight times through 18 games. KC has topped the projected totals in each of its two playoff games. San Francisco went 1-1.
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