Tag: Standings

Drew Brees likes Saints’ playoffs odds, whether at home or on the road

New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees isn’t afraid to take his show on the road, citing his team’s high win percentage away from the Superdome.

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The New Orleans Saints have done everything possible to secure a first-round bye week, though it’s still eluded them. Home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is out of their reach after the Green Bay Packers overcame a double-digit deficit to beat the Detroit Lions, but Saints quarterback Drew Brees wants it known that he isn’t afraid to go play on the road.

“I know a lot of people talk about the Superdome, and about us being a dome team, but the bottom line is that over the last 10 years we’ve won more games on the road than everybody but the New England Patriots,” Brees said during his postgame press conference.

That’s quite a stat to pull out of his hat, and Brees isn’t wrong: only the Patriots (57 wins ) outpace the Saints (52) in road wins since 2009, though the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers are close (having each won 51 games). As they’ve proven this season, the Saints can win anywhere in the NFL.

“I think that’s saying something about our teams,” Brees continued, “About how we’re coached. I think it says a lot. This year we were, what, 6-2 at home and 7-1 on the road?”

The Saints have been just as effective on the road as at home in the Superdome; there’s no greater evidence of that than the 38 and 42 points they dropped on the heads of their last two opponents, each of them in cold weather on the road.

Still, Brees hasn’t hung around the NFL this long by not taking things for granted. He knows what it takes to win in a hostile environment, and expects his team to prepare accordingly when the time comes: “Bottom line is each road game presents its challenges. It’s the crowd noise, it’s the conditions, it’s all those things you gauge depending on where you go. You plan for it, and this game is still about energy and execution. And I feel like that’s something we’ve done a great job with everywhere we’ve gone.”

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How Saints can clinch first-round bye week or No. 1 seed in Week 17

The New Orleans Saints have already punched their playoff ticket, but several clinch scenarios depend on the Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks.

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The New Orleans Saints have already punched their ticket for the NFC playoff tournament, but they didn’t get any help from the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night. The Vikings, sunk by an awful performance from franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins, put in a pathetic effort against the Green bay Packers and made New Orleans’ path to a top-two playoff seed (and the bye week it carries) much more difficult.

Winning that first-round bye or securing homefield advantage throughout the playoffs are well within reach for New Orleans, but they’ll need plenty of help. Fortunately, the NFL is here to clear things up. Here are each of the playoff clinch scenarios relevant to the Saints in Week 17.

Saints clinch first-round bye

  1. Saints beat Panthers, and Packers lose/tie Lions OR
  2. Saints beat Panthers, and 49ers lose/tie Seahawks OR
  3. Saints tie Panthers, and Packers lose to Lions OR
  4. Saints tie Panthers, and 49ers lose to Seahawks OR
  5. 49ers lose to Seahawks, and Packers beat or tie Lions

Saints clinch No. 1 seed in NFC

  1. Saints beat Panthers, Packers lose/tie Lions, and 49ers lose/tie Seahawks OR
  2. Saints tie Panthers, Packers lose to Lions, and 49ers lose to Seahawks

Complicated as that all may be, it’s kind of what we expected: the Saints have to beat the Panthers on Sunday to reach their easiest path to the playoffs. After that, things move out of their hands. The Saints don’t need both the Packers and 49ers to trip up and lose in Week 17, either of them doing that is enough to clinch a playoff bye. And that’s really what’s most important, even if homefield advantage would be nice. The Saints have gone 6-1 on the road in 2019, and their road record speaks for itself — they’ve won 17 of their last 24 away games, going back to the 2017 season, including 13 of their last 15. New Orleans has built a team that can travel well and beat any team in any venue in the league. But they could sure use an extra week to rest up and prepare before making their playoffs debut.

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NFC Playoff Picture: How can the Saints win the first seed?

The Seattle Seahawks were upset by the Arizona Cardinals, meaning the New Orleans Saints need some help to leap up the NFC playoff standings

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The New Orleans Saints improved to 12-3 on Sunday after defeating the Tennessee Titans on the road, but they benefited from the results of a few other games. Chief among them was the shocking upset of the Seattle Seahawks, who fell to the Arizona Cardinals in a 27-13 landslide.

This sent a shockwave through the NFC playoff picture. It’s opened the door for the Saints to not just earn a first-round playoff bye, but win the conference’s top playoff seed. Here’s how.

First, the Saints have to win the regular season finale over the Carolina Panthers. While that’s no sure thing, it should be an easier Week 17 than the Saints have enjoyed in past years, given the Panthers’ sub-par quarterback situation and interim coaching staff. But for the sake of this exercise, we’ll assume the Saints pull it off.

Next, they need some help. The Green Bay Packers must lose or tie either of their remaining games (Monday against the Minnesota Vikings, or Week 17 with the Detroit Lions), and the San Francisco 49ers have to lose next week’s game with the Seattle Seahawks. If the Packers and 49ers each lose or tie one more game, the Saints will get a top-two seed. And if the Packers and 49ers each lose or tie all of their remaining games, the Saints would have the first seed.

The only scenario in which the Saints remain the third seed would be if the Packers win both of their last two games, while the 49ers win their final game. Let’s lay it out a little more clearer:

  • Saints get the first seed if: Packers lose to or tie Vikings and Lions, 49ers lose to or tie Seahawks
  • Saints get the second seed if: Packers lose to or tie Vikings or Lions, 49ers beat Seahawks
  • Saints get the second seed if: Packers beat Vikings and Lions, 49ers lose to or tie Seahawks
  • Saints get the third seed if: Packers beat Vikings and Lions, 49ers beat Seahawks

There’s one other scenario at play where the Saints can get the second seed if they lose to the Panthers next week (going 12-4) — it would require the Packers to win out (going 13-3), while the Seahawks beat the 49ers (who would each be 12-4, with Seattle winning the NFC West). But hopefully it won’t come to that.

So for Saints fans, they have to root for their team to beat the Panthers next week, then hope for either the Packers or 49ers to get tripped up down the stretch. That’s easier said than done considering the Packers have to visit the 3-11-1 Lions after Monday’s game with the Vikings, and the 49ers will get the benefit of a Seahawks team missing left tackle Duane Brown, and running backs Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise. Odds are still good (unfortunately) that the Saints will end up being the NFC’s third seed.

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NFC Playoff Picture: Why are the Saints ranked behind the Seahawks?

The New Orleans Saints beat the Seahawks head-to-head, and share records with the Green Bay Packers. So why are they the NFC’s third seed?

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The New Orelans Saints improved to an 11-3 record with their win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15, tying with one team they’ve already beaten (the Seattle Seahawks) and one that they haven’t (the Green Bay Packers) on top of the NFC playoff standings.

But the Saints are the third seed, not the first or second. If the playoffs started today, they would be hosting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings while the Seahawks and Packers rest during their bye week. What gives?

It comes down in-conference win percentage. The Seahawks have the same record against other NFC teams as the Packers (8-2); they are both in better standing than the Saints (8-3). Normally, tiebreaking procedure for playoff seeding would go by overall record, and then head-to-head results. If it were just the Saints and Seahawks involved, the Saints would rank ahead.

But because the Packers are in the mix, that head-to-head ruling is thrown out the window. And because the Packers have earned a stronger record against NFC opponents than the Saints, they get the second seed behind Seattle. Because Green Bay is tied with the Seahawks and there is no head-to-head tiebreaker, the next step is to examine common opponents. And that’s where Seattle has an edge, having gone 4-0 against teams the Packers have a 2-2 record with.

This is why Saints fans should be pulling for the Seahawks to win the NFC West instead of the San Francisco 49ers, and why they should root for the Packers to drop another game (maybe next week, against the Vikings). If the Saints and Seahawks finish the year with identical records as the top two teams, the Saints can get the first seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

If it’s San Francisco instead, their head-to-head win over the Saints gives them that first seed. On top of that, the Packers have an easier road to claiming the first seed over the Saints, so for at least the next two weeks, Saints fans are pulling double-duty and backing up the 12’s. The Vikings could theoretically unseat the Packers on top of the NFC North and shake it all up, but that’s unlikely given Green Bay’s regular season finale with the lowly Detroit Lions.

For the curious, here’s how each of these teams looks against in-conference, plus the wild-card Vikings and 49ers. We aren’t going to worry about the NFC East winner, because the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are both terrible (and mathematically don’t matter; the best record either of them can finish with is 9-7). Overall records are in bold text:

  • 11-3 Seattle Seahawks: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
  • 11-3 Green Bay Packers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
  • 11-3 New Orleans Saints: 8-3 in the NFC, .727
  • 10-4 Minnesota Vikings: 7-3 in the NFC, .700
  • 11-3 San Francisco 49ers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800

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NFC Playoff Picture: How the Saints can win the first seed, homefield advantage

The San Francisco 49ers lost to the Atlanta Falcons, opening the door for the New Orleans Saints to win home-field advantage in the playoffs

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The San Francisco 49ers held the first seed for just a week before they choked, somehow losing to the Atlanta Falcons only a week after they beat the New Orleans Saints. That big mistake cost them in the NFC playoff seedings, dropping them from the first seed to the fifth.

It also opens the door a little wider for the Saints to march back to the top of the standings. Right now, the Saints are the third seed. They’re in a race for a top two seed with the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers, though the Saints are guaranteed to finish no worse than third.

So how can the Saints get that coveted first seed? Even if they win all three of their remaining games, they’ll need some help to get it.

Let’s run through it one team at a time. The Packers have two games left on their schedule, and have to lose one of them for the Saints to overtake them. They’re visiting the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in the final two weeks, and could very well lose that Vikings game considering how well Minnesota has been playing lately.

Next up, the 49ers: they need to win both of their remaining game to stick around in the race for a top-two seed. If they lose another game, they’re guaranteed to remain a wild-card team. Their season-finale is against the Seahawks in Seattle, so that game carries all kinds of implications — unless they lose next week to the Los Angeles Rams at home, in which case it doesn’t matter at all as far as the Saints are concerned. New Orleans owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle.

And that brings us full-circle. The Seahawks play at home in each of the final two weeks, hosting the Arizona Cardinals and the 49ers. The Saints need Seattle to win both of those home games to ensure the playoffs run through New Orleans.

So, to sum it up: if the Saints are going to earn homefield advantage in the playoffs, they have to win all three of their remaining games. They also need the Packers to lose one of their two remaining games, while the Seahawks win both of their final two games (including the regular season finale against the 49ers). That’s easier said than done, but it’s very much a realistic scenario.

Now, it’s on the Saints and their fans to do what they’ve always done: put everything into winning the games left on their schedule.

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Of course it’s helpful, but do the Saints need home-field advantage in the playoffs?

The New Orleans Saints have posted a higher win percentage on the road than in the Superdome, which may prepare them well for the playoffs

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The New Orleans Saints took a big hit in the playoff standings in their Week 14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, losing their grip on the first seed in the NFC playoff standings. They fell to third, and can’t fall further thanks to the NFC East’s collective mediocrity. If they win out, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles can each post records as strong as 9-7. The Saints will finish the year at 10-6 at worst, but they’ll be better than that.

It would take a lot of help for the Saints to rise back to the first seed, but the second seed is attainable. Both of the two top seeds guarantee a bye during the Wild Card Round, allowing lesser teams to duke it out in hopes of advancing, But only the first seed carries home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, ensuring that the team that holds it won’t have to travel for any games before Super Bowl LIV.

Obviously it would help the Saints to hold that advantage. Some dusty narratives suggest the Saints need it, and won’t reach the Super Bowl if they have to play away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome; here are some numbers that disprove that notion.

The Saints are a better road team than home team in 2019. They’ve gone 5-1 on the road and 5-2 at home, winning their road games by an average difference of 9.8 points; at home, that point differential drops to 7.2 points per game. To put it another way, the average Saints victory at home this season has ended with a score of 27.6 to 20.4.

But on the road, the Saints are winning games with an average score of 28.4 to 18.6. Drew Brees and the Saints offense are blocking out the crowd noise, while Demario Davis and the New Orleans defense are benefiting from the relative quiet when their opponents have the ball.

This trend continues in recent history. The Saints were 7-1 on the road in 2018 but 7-3 at home, including the playoffs. You have to go all the way back to the 2017 season to find an appreciable difference, when the Saints went 8-1 at home but 4-5 on the road. And three of those losses were settled by six points or fewer, illustrating how the Saints remained competitive in hostile environments even then.

To sum it up, here are the Saints’ home and road splits over the last two years, a stretch of 31 games (including the playoffs):

  • Saints at home, 2018 to 2019: 12-5 (.705), average score of 29.9 to 24.8. Per-game scoring differential of 5.2.
  • Saints on the road, 2018 to 2019: 12-2 (.857), average score of 27.3 to 19.1. Per-game scoring differential of 8.1.

So the Saints not only have a stronger winning percentage on the road, they’re doing a better job of limiting opposing offenses while still putting up points at a rate that would rank top-five around the league. There’s no question that the Saints would prefer to host every playoff game they’re scheduled for, but it’s hardly a death sentence if they have to travel at some point. Saints coach Sean Payton and his staff are clearly up to embracing the challenge of playing — and winning — in a hostile venue; Saints fans should take the same approach.

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Saints win 34-31, push past Panthers on last-second Wil Lutz field goal

The New Orleans Saints let the Carolina Panthers play too close for comfort, but were able to trust kicker Wil Lutz to win in the end.

The New Orleans Saints won a nail-biter over the Carolina Panthers, with kicker Wil Lutz pushing a 33-yard field goal through the uprights as time expired. It followed a successful drive downfield that began when Panthers kicker Joey Slye missed his own would-be game-winner from 28 yards out.

It would be nice if the final score of 34-31 didn’t indicate how closely the Saints played this game, but that’s not the case. New Orleans backed themselves into a corner with 12 penalties, giving up 123 yards of field positioning. The Panthers took advantage of many of those opportunities, though inconsistent kicking from Slye (who went 1-for-3 on extra point tries, and 2-for-3 on field goal attempts) ended up costing them.

Good news for the Saints surrounds the increased involvement of tight end Jared Cook, who caught 6 of 8 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown score. Cook consistently made plays after the catch and down the seam, giving the Saints a viable option downfield opposite Michael Thomas (who turned in a typical 10-for-11, 110-yard showing).

It’s been a quiet few weeks for second-year defensive end Marcus Davenport, but something has to be said for his performance in clutch time. Davenport set up Carolina’s botched final field goal with a huge sack on third down and followed it up by leaping over the Panthers’ blockers, spooking Slye into an off-target chip shot. He made big plays in the game’s biggest moments.

So New Orleans improved to 9-2 on the year so far, while Carolina fell to 5-6. All eyes now are on the Sunday Night Football matchup between the projected top two playoff seeds: the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers and 8-2 Green Bay Packers. If the 49ers win, the Saints will have a shot at controlling their own destiny when San Francisco visits on Dec. 8. If the Packers win, New Orleans has to hope Green Bay drops a loss down the stretch, or the NFC’s top playoff seed could be out of reach.

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Updated Week 12 Saints-Panthers injury report

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers published their updated injury reports ahead of their Week 12 game, but it didn’t clarify much.

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The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers published their second injury report ahead of their Week 12 clash, the result of which could put the Saints one game away from their third straight NFC South title (with a little help from the Panthers’ next opponent). Here’s a refresher on the division standings:

  1. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
  2. Carolina Panthers (5-5)
  3. Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7)

As for the Saints injury report: cornerback Marshon Lattimore and wide receiver Deonte Harris are both battling hamstring injuries, and did not participate in Wednesday’s walkthrough. That does not bode well for their status to play on Sunday. Tight end Josh Hill’s status will be worth following throughout the remainder of the week. Hill’s concussion was described as ‘mild’ and the tight end was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

The injury reports published by the Saints and the Panthers on Thursday is the second report for the week. A second, updated report will be released on Thursday. The final injury report with game status for certain players will be issued on Friday. Daily changes in practice participation are noted in bold text.

From the Saints

  • OL Andrus Peat (forearm), Did not participate
  • CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), Did not participate
  • WR Deonte Harris (hamstring), Did not participate
  • FB Zach Line (knee), Did not participate
  • TE Josh Hill (concussion), Limited
  • OL Larry Warford (thigh), Full
  • WR Austin Carr (ankle), Limited
  • OL Ryan Ramczyk (knee), Full

From the Panthers

  • CB Ross Cockrell (quad), Did not participate
  • DT Gerald McCoy (knee), Limited
  • OL Dennis Daley (groin), Limited
  • S Eric Reid (knee), Limited
  • LB Shaq Thompson (ankle), Limited
  • LB Brian Burns (wrist), Full
  • OL Greg Little (knee), Full

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49ers stay atop NFC West, Seahawks after win over Cardinals

The San Francisco 49ers remain at the top of the NFC West and ahead of the
Seattle Seahawks, after beating the Arizona Cardinals Week 11.

Despite having a bye week, the Seattle Seahawks had a chance to take the lead in the NFC West on Sunday with a little help from the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals traveled to Santa Clara Week 11 to face the 49ers for their second time this season. Arizona lost to San Francisco in the desert Halloween night and hoped to even the score in the rematch.

A win would have put the Seahawks atop the division.

The Cardinals came out swinging Sunday afternoon and took an early 16-0 lead over the 49ers before San Francisco was able to put points on the board in the second quarter.

The 49ers, however, would emerge victorious after D.J. Reed’s fumble recovery and return for a touchdown sealed the deal on the final play of the game.

San Franciso beat the Cardinals 36-26 and remains the leader in the NFC West.

The Seahawks (8-2) remain in spitting distance of the 49ers (9-1), especially after their 27-24 win on “Monday Night Football.”

Seattle has one of the toughest second-half schedules in the league and is now set to square off against the Eagles in Week 12.

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Second-half Saints schedule sets up for a strong playoff push

The New Orleans Saints strength of schedule is mediocre. The Green Bay Packers have it easy but the San Francisco 49ers are in for a shock.

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The second half of the NFL regular season is upon us, and it couldn’t have started worse for the New Orleans Saints. They air-balled what should have been an easy win over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday, losing their grip on the second playoff seed in the NFC as the Green Bay Packers beat the Carolina Panthers and the top-ranked San Francisco 49ers suffered their first setback of the year to the Seattle Seahawks.

But Saints fans should feel optimistic about their fortunes moving forward, and their team’s chance to recover. New Orleans has just four games against opponents with winning records, including the 49ers (8-1), Panthers twice (5-4), and Indianapolis Colts (5-4), as well as the middling Tennessee Titans (5-5). There’s plenty of time for correction and improvement ahead of them.

According to NFL Research, the Saints’ second half schedule ranks near the middle of the pack, with their remaining opponents sharing a combined record of 33-31-0 (.516). Here’s how they rank among their peers:

Compare that to what other NFC playoff contenders are facing. The San Francisco 49ers are set to play the second-toughest schedule down the stretch, with their future opponents having gone 40-25-1 (.614); their odds of holding onto the top playoff seed in the conference are slim. However, the Green Bay Packers are in good position to maintain their one-game lead on the Saints in playoff seeding, with a relatively weak strength of schedule of 25-30-1 (.455) ahead of them. That’s the ninth-easiest second half schedule in the NFL.

As for the two-team race in the NFC South: the Carolina Panthers are still a few games behind the Saints, but their remaining strength of schedule at 32-32 (.500) is slightly easier to navigate than what New Orleans will see. If Carolina handles its business and the Saints continue to play down to their competition, it’s not impossible to see a path for the Panthers to steal a divisional title in the season’s final weeks. If New Orleans plays like they did last Sunday, they could be in for a rude awakening no matter how favorable their schedule looks on paper.

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