Tag: SP+

What ESPN’s Bill Connelly learned about Wisconsin football in 2020

It’s likely Badger nation shares Connelly’s assessment of Wisconsin’s 2020 season

ESPN’s Bill Connelly is the creator of SP+, a ranking used to grade teams based on their returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Since Barry Alvarez took over as Wisconsin head football coach, the Badgers have consistently resided near the top of the SP+ ranking. The program has won consistently, improved its recruiting profile and consistently reached the Big Ten Championship game.

Related: ESPN’s SP+ for every opponent on Wisconsin’s 2021 football schedule

Connelly previewed the Big Ten West this morning, outlining each team’s ranking and explaining what we learned from them last season.

For Wisconsin, the ESPN college football writer learned a few significant things last season:

Jim Leonhard is fantastic. When head coach Paul Chryst promoted the former Wisconsin safety to defensive coordinator in 2017, Leonhard had just one official year of coaching to his name. He’s proved the move astute. The Badgers have ranked in the defensive SP+ top 15 in three of four seasons and climbed to fourth last year.

The Badgers stuff the run on early downs and dominate the pass on passing downs. They blitz well — especially with inside linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal — and corners Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams can handle the man coverage Leonhard asks of them. Leonhard does have to replace two of four primary linemen, but he could start as many as 10 juniors and seniors overall.

Graham Mertzcould be, too (with help). Talk about all-or-nothing: In four wins, the Badgers averaged 39 points per game, and Mertz, a blue-chip redshirt freshman, produced a raw QBR of 79.6. He completed 20 of 21 passes in his debut against Illinois.

In three losses, however, the Badgers averaged 6.7 points. Mertz’s QBR: 24.6. He got less help than expected from a rotating RB corps, and leading receivers Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor barely saw the field. Wisconsin was entirely overmatched against good Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana defenses.

Davis and Pryor return, along with sophomore Chimere Dike and tight end Jake Ferguson. Mertz should have fewer bad moments, but the run game has a lot to prove.

The Badgers are projected to finish at the top of the Big Ten West in nearly every available projection. As Connelly outlines, a lot of that will come down to whether Graham Mertz can lead the offense to more of the “all” piece of “all-or-nothing.”

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Stay tuned for updates on Connelly’s SP+ rankings throughout the 2021 college football season.

Contact/Follow us @TheBadgersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin news, notes, opinion and analysis.

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Where does ESPN’s college football preseason SP+ projections have the Gators?

ESPN put together SP+ projections for the 2021 season now that the national signing day fervor has died down. Here’s where the Gators rank.

It is college football projection season and ESPN’s staff writer Bill Connelly has been all over the topic in recent days, putting together his SP+ rankings for the 2021 season now that the national signing day fervor has died down and we have a clearer outlook at what to expect in the fall.

UF lands at No. 11 on the list, tied with the Washington Huskies with a 21.2 rating. Only two fellow Southeastern Conference schools ranked higher, with the Alabama Crimson Tide unsurprisingly perched at the top while the Georgia Bulldogs are pegged at No. 6. The Texas A&M Aggies were the one other conference team to make the top 25, coming right behind the Gators at No. 13; the LSU Tigers and Auburn Tigers are rated at No. 26 and No. 28, respectively.

In case you have not used Connelly’s rating system before, he bases these projections based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. With that out of the way, let us take a look at where the Florida Gators rank seven months ahead of the first kickoff.

Here is a look at the top 25 schools in ESPN’s 2021 preseason SP+ projections.

TEAM RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE
1. Alabama 30.7 44.2 (4) 13.5 (4)
2. Clemson 28.6 40.9 (9) 12.2 (3)
3. Oklahoma 28 46.6 (1) 18.6 (16)
4. Ohio St. 25 46.5 (2) 21.5 (38)
5. Oregon 24.2 41.0 (8) 16.9 (9)
6. Georgia 24.1 39.7 (15) 15.6 (5)
7. Iowa St. 23.1 41.5 (6) 18.4 (15)
8. Miami 22.7 40.5 (11) 17.8 (13)
9. Wisconsin 22.4 34.7 (36) 12.2 (2)
10. N. Carolina 21.7 44.8 (3) 23.1 (43)
11. Washington 21.2 39.8 (14) 18.6 (17)
12. Florida 21.2 41.5 (5) 20.4 (29)
13. Texas A&M 20.9 37.3 (21) 16.4 (8)
14. Penn St. 20.5 36.2 (29) 15.7 (6)
15. Cincinnati 20 36.0 (30) 15.9 (7)
16. Iowa 19.7 31.4 (51) 11.7 (1)
17. USC 19.6 39.9 (13) 20.3 (28)
18. Arizona St. 18 37.1 (23) 19.1 (21)
19. Utah 17.7 34.7 (35) 17.0 (10)
20. Texas 17.6 38.5 (18) 20.9 (34)
21. UCLA 15.6 41.2 (7) 25.6 (58)
22. Louisiana 15.3 36.2 (26) 21.0 (35)
23. Michigan 15.3 35.3 (32) 20.1 (27)
24. Ole Miss 14.9 40.6 (10) 25.7 (59)
25. Notre Dame 14.8 34.8 (34) 20.1 (26)

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ESPN releases preseason SP+. Is Notre Dame football in the top 25?

A projection by ESPN puts Notre Dame significantly lower than many other preseason polls that have been released.

Now that the final signing period has seen the majority of prospects make their decisions, it really is time to turn the page on the 2020 college football season and look ahead to 2021.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly looked ahead and used the SP+ projections to rank every school (insider).

Their method needs some introduction, as SP+ isn’t very transparent about what it is. Three major components are used to formulate SP+: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Taking that into account, the Irish placed inside the top 25, barely. Remember, these rankings will be significantly different than many others we will see heading into the season, so being 25th isn’t something you should get discouraged about.

Connelly breaks down Notre Dame’s ranking, 10 spots behind Mark Schlabach’s, by explaining “SP+ utterly hated their performances against Clemson and Alabama to finish 2020, dropping them from fourth in early December to 16th.” That explains a portion of the lower than normal ranking, the final two games left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth.

What about future performance?

“They (Notre Dame) lost more production than almost anyone in the country.” Connelly noted just four schools are behind the Irish in that category.

How about some good news heading into the 2021 campaign? Connelly does “still assume they (the Irish) will play at a top-20 level,” outperforming their SP+ projected rank. It wasn’t all good however, as “this does suggest that their floor might temporarily be lower than we’ve seen in recent years.”

If the floor is winning more than 10 games and competing in a high-level bowl game, I think we’ll all take that. With the aforementioned big personnel losses such as quarterback Ian Book, offensive lineman Liam Eichenberg and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, there will be some drop-off in production.

However, with Brian Kelly’s recent run of very solid recruiting classes, there is still talent in South Bend. The 2021 team will need to get some of the inexperienced players’ feet wet, and the Irish should enjoy another successful season this year.

ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings are high on Gators

Florida Gators football moved up a spot in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings after a resounding win over Missouri at home last weekend.

The Gators rank in the top five of the latest SP+ rankings, the analytics system created by ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly.

SP+ is based around performance rather than outcomes, and Florida’s elite offense is doing a lot of work to keep it high on the rankings. According to SP+, UF’s offense is the fourth-best in the nation, while its defense is ranked just 25th. It also has the third-best special teams unit.

In the previous rankings, the Gators were sixth. This week, their offense moved up two spots in the rankings, and the defense moved up one spot.

After the loss to Florida, Missouri took a big tumble, falling 19 spots from 55th to 74th. LSU and Mississippi State were also big fallers in the conference after blowout losses, falling 20 spots and 15 spots, respectively.

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Florida Gators 8th in ESPN’s latest SP+ analytical rankings

The Gators rank behind No. 2 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia. Those three teams comprise what Connelly considers “Tier 1” of the SEC.

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In this week’s update to the SP+ rankings, a college football analytics system created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Florida ranks eighth. The rankings also include teams from the Big 10 and Pac-12, though teams from those conferences won’t start play this season until later in the fall.

The Gators rank behind No. 2 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia. Those three teams comprise what Connelly considers “Tier 1” of the SEC. Only one other team from the league, No. 15 Auburn, ranks in the top 20.

Florida’s offense has been phenomenal to start the season, and understandably, the unit ranks high on the SP+ rankings — ninth, to be exact.

And though its defense has struggled, it ranks 20th on the SP+. That’s the second-lowest ranking in the top 10 behind No. 10 Oklahoma, whose defense ranks 51st.

Here are the top-25 SP+ rankings among all 127 FBS teams currently planning to compete.

TEAM RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE SPL TEAMS
1. Ohio St. (0-0) 30.2 44.2 (2) 14.1 (2) N/A
2. Alabama (2-0) 28.5 46.2 (1) 17.7 (17) 0.1 (19)
3. Clemson (3-0) 27.9 43.1 (3) 15.5 (4) 0.2 (7)
4. Georgia (2-0) 25.6 31.6 (38) 6.2 (1) 0.1 (15)
5. Notre Dame (2-0) 23.3 38.7 (12) 15.5 (5) 0.0 (41)
6. Penn St. (0-0) 22.3 39.4 (7) 17.1 (13) N/A
7. Wisconsin (0-0) 21.7 36.0 (15) 14.3 (3) N/A
8. Florida (2-0) 21 39.0 (9) 18.2 (20) 0.2 (11)
9. Miami (3-0) 17.4 32.6 (30) 15.6 (6) 0.4 (1)
10. Oklahoma (1-2) 17.3 42.5 (4) 25.2 (51) 0.0 (36)
11. N. Carolina (2-0) 16.5 38.9 (10) 22.4 (37) 0.0 (43)
12. Oregon (0-0) 16.3 32.7 (29) 16.3 (9) N/A
13. USC (0-0) 15.8 39.5 (6) 23.7 (43) N/A
14. Washington (0-0) 15.3 32.5 (32) 17.2 (15) N/A
15. Auburn (1-1) 14.9 32.5 (33) 17.6 (16) 0.1 (25)
16. BYU (3-0) 14.6 35.1 (20) 20.7 (27) 0.2 (10)
17. Texas (2-1) 14.4 39.7 (5) 25.3 (53) 0.0 (35)
18. Minnesota (0-0) 14.3 38.8 (11) 24.5 (47) N/A
19. Michigan (0-0) 14 31.9 (37) 17.8 (19) N/A
20. LSU (1-1) 13.7 35.1 (19) 21.6 (32) 0.1 (17)
21. Oklahoma St. (3-0) 13.6 32.8 (28) 19.4 (22) N/A
22. Tennessee (2-0) 13.6 30.2 (51) 16.6 (10) 0.0 (46)
23. Va. Tech (2-0) 12.6 32.5 (31) 20.0 (24) 0.1 (21)
24. Utah (0-0) 11.9 36.1 (14) 24.3 (45) N/A
25. Pittsburgh (3-1) 11.5 27.7 (71) 15.7 (7) -0.4 (72)

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ESPN projects 8.5 wins for Florida Gators football this fall using SP+ analytics

Florida is projected to win 8.5 of its 10 games this year. Other teams projected at 8.5 wins are Cincinnati and divisional rival Georgia.

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ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the proprietor of the SP+ sports analytics system, has released his system’s projected win totals for all FBS teams participating this season. Connelly released the preseason SP+ rankings earlier this month, in which the Gators were ranked fifth.

As opposed to pure projected win totals, Connelly used what he calls “marginal win totals.” This means that teams that are favored by more than 7.5 points are projected to win, teams that are underdogs by more than 7.5 points are projected to lose, and anything in between is a tossup, meaning they are credited for 0.5 wins.

With this in mind, Florida is projected to win 8.5 of its 10 games this year. Other teams projected at 8.5 wins are Cincinnati and divisional rival Georgia, who the Gators haven’t beaten since 2016.

Florida and Georgia are both projected top-five teams per SP+, but 10-game SEC schedules will leave you with quite a bit of work to do. Georgia heads to Alabama, hosts Auburn and faces Florida in Jacksonville; Florida also hosts LSU and travels to Texas A&M. This could be a fascinating CFP race, as there really might not be more than two or three Power Five teams finishing with zero or one losses. We could theoretically see a three-loss No. 4 seed.

As Connelly mentioned, expanded conference schedules likely mean more difficult schedules for most teams, so it’s possible there will be a wider margin for error for teams trying to make the playoff this fall. With the Gators projected to lose only one or two games, they could find themselves squarely in that race come the end of the regular season.

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Ohio State finishes season at No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI and SP+ rankings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season, according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings.

Before fans of Ohio State or LSU overreact to this, let’s break down exactly what it means.

SP+ doesn’t try to crown a national champion. It doesn’t react to who wins games. Instead, it judges teams on a play-by-play and possession-by-possession metric. In other words, it looks at the factors behind who won a football game to see how each team performed in the stats that are easiest to replicate. Using that, it looks forward to predict who will likely win games in the future.

This shouldn’t be too surprising. LSU had multiple close calls over the course of the season (Texas, Auburn) and was statistically weak on defense at times during the season. That’s why ESPN’s FPI rankings also put Ohio State as the best team over the course of the 2019 season.

What LSU did better than everyone else, by far, was peak at the right time. We can see this most clearly in the Sagarin ratings, another power rating that operates on similar principles.

Over the course of the season, Ohio State has the best power rating in the country. In the Predictor rating, Ohio State is a full five points clear of No. 2 LSU. However, if you look at the “Recent” rating in the right-hand column, you will see that LSU’s rating is an insanely high 109.57 with recent games being weighted more heavily. Any rating over 100 is rare to begin with, though becoming a bit more common. 109 is off the charts.

In a great snapshot, the Sagarin ratings show a very clear picture of why LSU won the National Championship this year. Ohio State was the best and most consistent team over the course of the year. LSU was a pretty good team over the course of the year. However, in its last few games, LSU was one of the best teams that college football has ever seen–and that’s why the Tigers are National Champions.