Tag: Seahawks

The Green Bay Packers have a chance to advance to their first NFC Championship Game since the 2016 season when they host the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Here are six reasons why the Packers should be favored to beat the Seahawks on Sunday night:

1. Pass-rush: The Packers finished the 2019 season with the highest pressure rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Za’Darius Smith led the league in pressures and quarterback hits, Kenny Clark produced the second-most pressures among interior defensive linemen and Preston Smith was one of only eight players to tally at least 12 sacks and 20 quarterback hits. They’ll face a Seahawks offensive line that finished 28th in pass-block win rate, per ESPN. Not only that, but the Seahawks likely won’t have their starting left guard (Mike Iupati), and their top two options at left tackle (Duane Brown, George Fant) are questionable. The Packers could disrupt Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ passing game from start to finish by dominating up front. Pass-rushing matchups on the inside look especially appealing. Wilson can’t avoid trouble forever.

2. Aaron Jones: The dynamic third-year running back is in store for a big night. Jones rushed for almost 110 yards per game over the final four games of the regular season, and now the NFL’s touchdown leader in 2019 is about to take on a defense ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. The Seahawks allowed 18 rushing touchdowns (second-most) and 817 receiving yards (fourth-most) to the running back position in 2019. Kenyan Drake, another explosive back, rushed for 166 yards in the Cardinals’ Week 16 win over the Seahawks. Expect the Packers to feed Jones the ball in multiple ways on Sunday night, including in the passing game. A bunch of big plays is possible.

3. Protection: Another big mismatch on paper is the Packers offensive line against the Seahawks pass-rushers. Jadeveon Clowney is a game-changing player, but the supporting cast around him is shaky at best. The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks (tied for second-fewest), a sack percentage of 4.5 (third-worst) and a pressure percentage of 19.3 (fifth-worst). Last week’s seven-sack performance in Philadelphia looks more like an aberration than an awakening. The Packers, meanwhile, finished with the highest pass-blocking win rate in the NFL. All five starters are healthy, including bookend tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga. The five have started 14 of 16 games together, and that’s only because rookie Elgton Jenkins sat behind Lane Taylor to start the year. Aaron Rodgers will likely be well protected.

4. Davante Adams: Do the Seahawks have a cornerback capable of handling Adams for 60 minutes, especially if the Packers hold up in pass protection? The Seahawks allowed a wide receiver to go over 100 receiving yards eight different times in 2019, including three games over 150. Adams went over 100 receiving yards five times in 12 games. He’s also been terrific against the Seahawks, catching 22 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown over the last four games. Adams will be a big challenge for the Seahawks secondary if the Packers move him around and keep him involved (42 targets over last three games). Watch for explosive plays from the slot.

5. Scoring in the red zone: Remember the NFC title game in Seattle when Mike McCarthy settled for a bunch of early field goals? Don’t expect a repeat. The Packers have a big advantage in the red zone. Green Bay’s red-zone offense ranked eighth in the NFL, thanks in large part to Aaron Jones, while Seattle’s red-zone defense ranked 26th. The Eagles lost last week partly because backup quarterback Josh McCown couldn’t punch in touchdowns in the red zone. They went 0-for-3 scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Packers can’t do the same. The numbers suggest they won’t.

6. At home: The Packers are better in almost every way at Lambeau Field, especially on offense. They score more points and throw and run the ball better at home, and they’re far more efficient. Aaron Rodgers averages more yards per attempt, Aaron Jones averages more yards per carry and Davante Adams averages more yards per catch in Green Bay than on the road this season. The defense gave up 19.5 points per game at home and had 15 takeaways, including several in the red zone. The elements and atmosphere should favor the Packers. And while it might not matter Sunday, the Packers have won the last eight games over the Seahawks at Lambeau Field. A ninth straight win will get Matt LaFleur’s team within one game of the Super Bowl.

There’s a great deal of recent history between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks, but on paper, the Packers have the advantage over the long haul in several categories.

The Packers will play host to the Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs this coming Sunday at Lambeau Field, marking the 23rd time the two teams will have faced off.

Here’s what the numbers say about the Packers-Seahawks matchup throughout history:

• The Packers and Seahawks have previously faced off 22 times. The Packers lead the all-time series with a record of 13-9 and have outscored the Seahawks 583-462.
• Green Bay and Seattle have played each other three times in the playoffs (2014 NFC Championship, 2007 Divisional and 2003 Wild Card). The Packers are 2-1 against them in the postseason.
• In the series history, neither team has won more than three games in a row. The Seahawks currently have a one-game winning streak over the Packers, having won their last matchup in Week 11 last season.
• The Packers have an all-time playoff record of 34-22, with a home record of 18-5 at Lambeau Field in the postseason.
• Historically, Green Bay has not fared well in the Divisional Round, posting a record of 9-10. It’s their worst winning percentage (.450) in any round of the playoffs.
• The Seahawks have an all-time playoff record of 17-16, with their worst winning percentage also being in the Divisional Round (4-8, .333).
• In their history, Seattle has a 4-11 record on the road in the postseason and has never won at Lambeau Field in the playoffs (0-2).
• Overall, the Packers are 11-3 at home against the Seahawks and have won their last eight straight at home against them.
• The Packers have not lost a playoff game at home since the 2013 NFC Wild Card Round on Jan. 4, 2014 against the 49ers. Since then, Green Bay is 3-0 at home in the postseason.
• Sunday’s game will be the first time the Packers will have played in a playoff game since the 2016 NFC Championship on Jan. 22, 2017 in Atlanta against the Falcons.
• Matt LaFleur will make his playoff debut as a head coach on Sunday. LaFleur guided the Packers to a 13-3 record and first-round bye in the playoffs in his first season as coach.
• The Packers are 7-1 at home this season under LaFleur, with their only loss occurring in Week 4 against the Eagles. Additionally, the Packers averaged 25.6 points per game at home and 21.4 on the road this season.
• Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has a career record of 11-8 in the playoffs, including a record of 9-6 with Seattle. Overall, the Seahawks have only missed the postseason twice in Carroll’s nine seasons with the club.
• The Seahawks are 8-1 on the road this season, which includes a victory in the NFC Wild Card Round against the Eagles this past Sunday. Seattle averages 25.6 points per game at home and 24.1 on the road.

Third down will play a huge factor in determining the winner of Sunday’s NFC Divisional Round matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.

More specifically, the Packers defense needs to be great on the pivotal down against a Seahawks offense that been terrific against two of the NFL’s best defenses the last two games.

Not only have the Seahawks converted first downs, but they’ve created big plays.

In games against the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, the Seahawks converted 16 total third downs – eight against the 49ers in Week 17, and eight more on Sunday in Philadelphia. The 49ers are the NFL’s second-best third-down defense; the Eagles are fourth.

The Packers defense finished the regular-season ranked 15th in the NFL on third down. However, over the final five games, the Packers gave up first downs on just 34.5 percent of third downs, which ranked as the sixth-best mark in the league.

Facing Wilson, an All-Pro, will provide a unique challenge.

He was terrific for the Seahawks on third down over the last two weeks, creating all 16 first downs either by passing or running. He completed 16 of 24 passes for 246 yards, one touchdown and 14 first downs, and he rushed three times for 22 yards and two more first downs.

He was especially effective against the Eagles. He completed six passes gaining at least 19 yards, including a stunning 38-yard conversion to David Moore that set up a touchdown in the first half and three completions to rookie D.K. Metcalf over 20 yards. He rushed for a key first down on 3rd-and-15 and all but ended the game with a 36-yard bomb to Metcalf on 3rd-and-10 with under two minutes left.

Two targets have done the majority of the damage. Together, Metcalf and Tyler Lockett saw 13 targets the last two games and converted eight first downs. Metcalf turned all four of his catches into first downs, while Lockett had five catches and four first downs.

The Packers will likely match Jaire Alexander against Lockett and Kevin King against Metcalf, potentially creating an outstanding set of matchups in the passing game on high-leverage downs.

Wilson’s legs provide another challenge. Even if the Packers cover up the receivers and pressure Wilson out of the pocket, he’s fast enough and athletic enough to escape and gain big chunks of yards with his legs.

Most dangerously, the Packers have to be prepared to stay sticky in coverage when Wilson escapes pressure and buys time. He can create magic on extended plays, as both the 49ers and Eagles found out.

Take two examples from Sunday in Philadelphia. In the first half, Wilson bought time to his right and found Metcalf on a clever pass in the scramble drill for 24 yards on 3rd-and-10. Later in the half, he danced around pressure and somehow delivered a strike to Moore, who came back to the ball and circled around the defender for 38 yards, setting up a touchdown.

Even blitzing Wilson is dangerous. The Eagles brought a Cover-0 blitz on 3rd-and-10 with the game on the line. There was no safety deep, and Malcolm Jenkins served as a spy on Wilson to negate a scramble. He still delivered a perfect deep ball to Metcalf behind the coverage for 36 yards to clinch the win.

Getting the Seahawks into third-and-long will be key, but even then they were effective. Despite facing 15 third downs needing eight or more yards, the Seahawks still converted eight first downs. And one of the misses was a kneel-down to end Sunday’s win.

Mike Pettine and the Packers will be tested on third down. They need to consistently disrupt the pocket, pinch underneath passing lanes, take away deep shots and keep Wilson from breaking contain and taking off into the open field. It’s a lot to ask. Even the best defenses have struggled the past two weeks.

The Green Bay Packers will host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC Divisional Round at Lambeau Field.

Here is a statistical breakdown of the Seahawks:

– The Seahawks ranked ninth in points scored and 22nd in points allowed. Despite an 11-5 record, the Seahawks finished 14th in the NFL in point differential at +7.

– The Seahawks ranked fifth in offensive DVOA, 18th in defensive DVOA and eighth in overall DVOA, but they faced the second-hardest overall DVOA.

– The Seahawks ranked 11th in yards per play (5.7) and 29th in yards allowed per play (6.0).

– The Seahawks have won 11 games by eight points or fewer in 2019, including Sunday’s postseason win over the Eagles. Five of their wins came by four points or fewer.

– The Seahawks are 8-1 on the road.

– The defense ranked third in the NFL in takeaways with 32. They intercepted 16 passes (fifth-most) and recovered 16 fumbles (second-most). Seven times, the Seahawks produced three or more takeaways. They were 7-0 in those games. However, they lost all three regular-season games in which they didn’t create a turnover.

– The Seahawks offense faced the third-hardest schedule by DVOA but finished fourth in passing offense and sixth in rushing offense.

– In terms of scoring percentage per drive, the Seahawks ranked 14th on offense and 14th on defense.

– The Seahawks converted 39.5 percent of third downs (16th) and allowed conversions on 38.4 of third downs (16th).

– Wilson, a legitimate MVP candidate for much of the year, produced another terrific season. He finished third in passing touchdowns (31), third in interception percentage (1.0), eighth in yards per attempt (8.0), fifth in passer rating (106.3), sixth in QBR (69.8) and seventh in DVOA. He was voted a second-team All-Pro.

– Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf give Wilson two dynamic weapons in the passing game. They combined for 28 catches over 20 yards and seven over 40 during the regular season. Metcalf, a physically imposing rookie, exploded for 160 receiving yards – including a 53-yard touchdown and the game-sealing catch – in Seattle’s win over Philadelphia.

– Wilson and Lockett have formed a special bond. Over the last two seasons, Lockett has caught 77.2 percent of his 180 targets, creating 2,022 yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s averaging 11.2 yards per target since 2018.

– Running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny rushed for 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns, but both are on injured reserve. Rookie Travis Homer is now the No. 1 back. Recycled veterans Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin also contribute.

– The Seahawks ranked third in rushing attempts and ninth in yards per carry but 26th in expected points added by the run.

– Wilson took sacks on 8.5 percent of dropbacks, the fifth-most among qualifying quarterbacks. He finished tied with Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan with 48 sacks taken.

– The Seahawks finished with only 28 sacks. Only one team had fewer. They also ranked 30th in the NFL in sack percentage (4.5) and quarterback hits (68). However, the Seahawks did produce seven sacks of Eagles quarterbacks on Sunday. Six different players had at least one sack.

– The Seahawks didn’t have a player with more than four sacks. Rasheem Green (4.0) led the team. Jadeveon Clowney produced 3.0 sacks and 13 quarterback hits.

– Despite the lack of pressure, the Seahawks still allowed the ninth-lowest opposing passer rating in the NFL. They gave up just 19 touchdown passes, tied with the Packers for the fifth-lowest.

– The Seahawks scored touchdowns on 63.3 percent of red-zone trips, ranking ninth. However, the defense allowed touchdowns on 61.5 percent of opponent’s trips inside the 20, ranking 26th.

– Kicker Jason Myers was perfect under 40 yards (17-17), but he missed three kicks between 40-49 yards and two over 50. He also missed four extra points.

– After an All-Pro rookie season, punter Michael Dickson averaged just 45.1 yards per punt in 2019. His net average dropped from 42.5 to 40.9.

– Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright both went over 100 total tackles. They combined for 12 tackles for losses, 17 pass breakups and four interceptions.