Tag: San Franciso 49ers

Rams bettors should be afraid of the Niners. ‘It’s difficult to beat a team three times’ is a myth

It’s time to put this utter falsehood about the football postseason to rest.

Death, taxes and tired axioms about winning Big Football Games.

Whenever two division rivals have previously met in the NFL’s postseason, storytellers dredge up one narrative in unique circumstances. If either of the two teams won both of the regular-season matchups, the implied idea is that that team simply cannot win again. TV commentators and reporters parrot it up and down. Random, cherry-picked statistics bear it out as an abject impossibility, regardless of context.

Because guess what: It’s hard to beat one team three times in one year, for some reason. No, we don’t need to explain. This is football, a Serious Game, and in football, you cannot win against a team three times in the same year.

This is the situation the Rams face against the 49ers in this Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. Los Angeles, a -3.5 favorite to advance to Super Bowl LVI at Tipico Sportsbook, lost to San Francisco in both scheduled matchups this year. The first time, a 31-10 Monday Night Football beatdown, and the second, a 27-24 overtime victory in SoFi Stadium (the site of this Sunday’s game) that let the 49ers sneak into the playoffs.

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While the score wasn’t as indicative of the play in the former, it’s also not as if the 49ers completely dominated the Rams. On that merit, those Rams, who are hitting on all cylinders now, should only be able to overcome their woes only because you do not beat a team three times in one season.

It won’t be because Matthew Stafford has found a new comfort level.

No, it’ll be that you do not beat a team three times in one season.

It won’t be because Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey, among others, on a stacked Rams defense, will make life hell for Jimmy Garoppolo.

No, it’ll be that you do not beat a team three times in one season.

(Never mind that, technically, the Rams lost to the 49ers twice in 2021, so San Francisco doesn’t even have to worry about this hex in 2022 just yet. )

But does history bear this nugget out as anything of statistical significance? Have teams really routinely failed to sweep their division rivals once it came to a playoff battle?

In a word: No.

From 1970 to 2020—50 years of pro football to be exact—the NFL team who won both regular-season matchups is 14-8 in all playoff rematches. To be specific to this weekend more than anything, that includes three conference championship games in the NFL’s current format: The Steelers over the Ravens for the AFC in 2008, the Titans over the Jaguars for the AFC in 1999, and the Giants over Washington Football Team in 1986.

While the previous loser did eventually enjoy some measure of redemption, roughly 63 percent of these playoff battles ending in a third defeat is not a number to overlook. In most cases, the owner of the season sweep did come out on top again, owning an authentic piece of bragging rights hardware and point of pride in a hard-fought rivalry.

If it’s any consolation to the Rams, they need not worry about narratives. They’re more than capable of beating the 49ers on their own terms. You don’t reach the penultimate weekend of NFL football if you aren’t a quality team. In recent, less consequential matchups, the Saints finished a sweep of the Panthers with a Wild Card Game victory in 2017, but Tom Brady’s Buccaneers did break the Saints’ hold over them in the Divisional Round last year.

It truly isn’t that hard to beat a team three times. What would be difficult is beating a team seven straight times, which is also laid out on a platter for the 49ers as the Rams haven’t won against San Francisco since 2018.

If the Rams already fell to the 49ers twice in the last three months, who’s to say it doesn’t happen in SoFi Stadium again with higher stakes based on a hokey (and false) cliche?

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Short-handed 49ers secondary gives Sam Darnold perfect opportunity to bounce back

The 49ers will be without Richard Sherman and likely two other veteran cornerbacks Sunday, creating a chance for Sam Darnold to bounce back.

While it’s hard to envision Sam Darnold playing worse than he did in Week 1, his matchup against a banged-up 49ers secondary this weekend gives him the perfect opportunity to rebound.

The 49ers will be without their No. 1 cornerback, Richard Sherman, who was placed on injured reserve Wednesday with a calf injury. Although it was reported Wednesday that CB Ahkello Witherspoon was in the concussion protocol, he returned to practice Thursday in a non-contact jersey. In other Niners injury news, veteran CB Jason Verrett (hamstring) did not practice Thursday and his status for Sunday’s game doesn’t look promising. The 49ers also placed CB Tim Harris Jr. (hamstring string) on the practice squad IR.

Already down three or four cornerbacks, depending on Witherspoon, San Franciso signed Ken Webster off the Miami Dolphins’ practice squad and added Brian Allen and Christian Angulo to its own practice squad.

Things are already looking ominous for a 49ers secondary that struggled in their season debut against the Cardinals. Emmanuel Mosley, who figures to step into a starting role, was targeted 14 times by Kyler Murray in the 49ers’ 24-20 loss. Mosley allowed 10 receptions for 92 yards, giving up five first downs in the process.

The 49ers went from stifling opponents’ passing attacks en route to a Super Bowl run to diving deep into their depth chart in the second week of the 2020 season. Last season, the 49ers were No. 1 in the least amount of passing first downs, yards per attempt and total passing yards allowed. It will be nearly impossible for San Francisco’s current unit to replicate that production.

The Jets offense, however, will also be down a few bodies. Frank Gore is the starting running back with Le’Veon Bell hurt and Jamison Crowder’s status is uncertain after missing Thursday’s practice. If Crowder misses Sunday’s game, that leaves Breshad Perriman, Chris Hogan and Braxton Berrios as the starters.

As both teams enter an already critical junction in their respective seasons, Darnold has a chance to put his forgettable Week 1 performance aside and step up to the plate against the defending NFC Champions.

Looking back at his Week 1 play against the Bills, Darnold took accountability for his poor showing, pinpointing his dud of an outing on a lack of timing and poor footwork. While missing a handful of open targets during New York’s 27-17 loss, he also dealt with a 44.7 percent pressure rate from the Bills defensive line. That number certainly won’t get any better against the 49ers’ talented defensive front.

In addition to going 21-35 passing, throwing for 215 yards, one touchdown and one interception, Darnold also had a 19.3 QBR. Darnold went 3-11 for 69 yards on passes of more than 10 yards, with five of those 11 attempts being off-target throws, per ESPN Stats & Info.

New York will only go as far as its third-year quarterback takes it. Darnold certainly didn’t look the part in Week 1, but he has the fortune of going up against an injured defense in Week 2.

Darnold’s not going to have an ample amount of time to throw Sunday, so Gang Green’s best bet is attacking San Francisco’s secondary often and early. With the 49ers paper-thin at cornerback, Darnold has a great opportunity at getting his third season back on track, but it’s up to him to execute.

Report: 49ers player tested positive for COVID-19

A 49ers player tested positive for Covid-19.

One San Francisco 49ers player tested positive for COVID-19 while working out with teammates in Nashville. Those who were working out in Nashville are also getting tested for the virus and are awaiting results, per Mike Garafolo of NFL Network.

Among the notable players working out in Nashville included quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Deebo Samuel (pre-injury), Kendrick Bourne and rookie Jajuan Jennings. There have also been workouts held at San Jose State.

The 49ers gave a small statement on the matter shortly following the confirmation of the injuries to Samuel and fellow wide receiver Richie James, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury:

“Federal and state privacy laws prohibit our organization from commenting on the personal health of our employees.”

The hits just keep coming for the 49ers. First the broken foot for Samuel, then the broken wrist for James. Now, the team will have to be extremely cautious given the spread of the virus.

It isn’t clear which player tested positive for the virus but it will be a wait-and-see game when it comes to those who attended the workouts in Nashville.

The 49ers took advantage of an NFL rule to avoid pass interference on Saints fake punt

It was a smart play.

The New Orleans Saints were on the wrong end of one of the more egregious pass interference no-calls in recent memory, which led to pass interference becoming a reviewable play. So, as you should expect, Saints fans are extra sensitive to any no-call that goes against them.

But during Sunday’s showdown between New Orleans and the San Francisco 49ers, the NFL officials were right to keep the penalty flags in their pockets. And the Niners were smart to take advantage of the rule.

Late in the third quarter, the Saints lined up in a punt formation and called a fake with Taysom Hill attempting a pass to Tre’Quan Smith. Tarvarius Moore, though, was all over Smith as the pass fell incomplete. There were no flags, and the Saints fans in New Orleans were livid. Those Saints fans, though, didn’t know the rule.

Per NFL rules, when the offense lines up in a punting formation, defensive pass interference cannot be called. Otherwise teams would be able to run fake punts with passes to the gunner in hopes of drawing easy pass interference penalties.

The Niners evidently knew that and didn’t let Smith get any space to make an attempt at the catch. Though a holding penalty arguably could have been called, that wasn’t a reviewable penalty.

Still, there was plenty of confusion over the no-call with even NFL Red Zone’s Scott Hanson completely baffled and unaware of the rule. Other fans had no idea that pass interference could not be called on a fake punt.

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Week 11 EPA Power Rankings: Cowboys knocked from top-offense perch

Cowboys force-feed Zeke in Week 10 despite data showing he isn’t near the most effective backs in the NFL this year.

The NFL was full of upsets this week.  Heading into Monday Night Football, seven underdogs had come away with a victory, including the Cowboys loss to the Vikings, the Titans over the Chiefs, and the Falcons taking down the Saints.  It was only fitting that it should end with another one as the Seahawks took down the previously unbeaten 49ers in an overtime thriller.

That being said, this single week’s games weren’t enough to change much in each team’s Expected Points Differential.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

Note: There was a bug within the program that scrapes all the NFL play-by-play data that affected the EPA on plays with challenges, which has since been fixed.  There was some slight movement in team EPA totals because of this, but nothing too major.

The top two teams stayed put this week despite San Francisco going home with a loss.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott performed better than either QB from these teams, netting a total of 24 EPA across 47 plays, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a rough day on the ground for Ezekiel Elliott.  The underlying numbers for Dallas, however, still make them look far better than their 5-4 record suggests.

Pittsburgh and Oakland were the biggest climbers this week, moving up five and four spots, respectively.  The Steelers’ offense isn’t very inspiring with Mason Rudolph at the helm, but their defense ranks third in the NFL in total EPA allowed, trailing only New England and San Francisco.  Rookie linebacker Devin Bush has proven he was worth the trade-up, while in-season acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick has picked off more passes than anyone in the NFL since moving up north from Miami.

We’ve got a new leader in total offensive EPA this week, as Lamar Jackson’s huge day put him in the top spot this week among offensive players.  Jackson’s 1.14 EPA/play more than doubled the amount of second-place Prescott (0.51 EPA/play).  Yes, the Bengals are bad, but nobody else has done that to them this season.  The next best performance against Cincinnati was Jimmy Garoppolo’s 0.66 EPA/play way back in Week 2.

Lamar Jackson has been an above average passer, ranking seventh in raw EPA/pass, but it’s his rushing success that has catapulted him to stardom.  Jackson now has started 16 games in his career, and if they were all in one season, he’d break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing yards record for quarterbacks.  He’s playing like 2013 Colin Kaepernick, if Kaepernick doubled his rushing yards and completed about 10% more of his passes.

Moving away from quarterbacks, let’s take a look at how running backs are doing in 2019 with their carries.  A few weeks ago, I found that teams are seeing more rushing success to the outside than they have been in the past decade, with the exception of short yardage situations.  With the help of NFL’s Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus, we can zoom in a bit more on specific running back performance.

What jumps out to me here is the 49ers stable of running backs.  Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman are all seeing above average loaded box counts, and yet Mostert and Breida are first and fourth in yards per carry.  Coleman, who sees more loaded boxes than anyone but Frank Gore, is still league average in YPC.

We can glean a better measure of effectiveness of the run game by using EPA/carry in this same fashion.

Coleman surpasses his teammates here even with the lower yards per carry mark because he’s seeing more work in short yardage situations.  Coleman has seen the 10th highest percentage of his carries in short yardage situations (3 or fewer yards to go) as well as the fourth highest touchdown percentage in the league.  Touchdowns and first downs are generally the biggest positive EPA plays, so it’s no wonder he looks better here.

Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook both appear near the top here, as expected, but the surprise might be that they are joined by Aaron Jones and the duo of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards.  Ingram is the leader in EPA/carry this year despite seeing more 8+ man box counts than either McCaffrey or Cook.  The threat of Lamar Jackson keeping the football on any given play coupled with a scheme that might even see Robert Griffin III receive a pitch is proving to be enough to run over anyone, even when they are prepared to stop the run.

On the other side of things, last year’s top performers (Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Todd Gurley) are all seeing below average loaded box counts and still only producing at a near average rate.  Elliott has been the best of this bunch so far, even with his tough day last weekend.

If we really want to break down running back performance, we need to look for places a running back can separate himself from his team’s coaching decisions and run blocking performance.  For that, let’s take a look at Pro Football Focus’ yards after contact.

It appears that the 49ers backs are helped more by scheme than by running backs breaking tackles.  The best back by this measure is Seattle’s Chris Carson, who is gaining more yards after contact than anyone in the league, and yet is still below average by EPA.  This is a good reminder that EPA evaluations are often indicative more of team performance rather than individual performance, especially when we’re looking at rushing.

The Ravens and the 49ers are great reminders that rushing can be effective in the modern NFL, and the situations in which teams choose to run the ball tend to have a larger impact on rushing success than the specific ball carrier.

Elliott can be an effective piece for the Cowboys offense, but it’s crucial they continue to focus his efforts on the ground against lighter boxes, which he’s seeing more than the average back in 2019.  His yards after contact is only just above league average, while his quarterback happens to be one of the most efficient in the league.  Let’s hope Dallas only feeds Elliott in optimum situations going forward, because when the light boxes are there, he can eat.

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