Tag: projections

Bowl Projections: Texas returning to the NY6 against an unfamiliar foe

Sporting News came out with their summer bowl projections with the Longhorns staying in Texas to play in the Cotton Bowl Classic.

Yes, college football is 90 days away from returning but that doesn’t stop the bowl projections from being announced. In recent weeks the Sporting News came out with their summer projections.

Big 12 Bowls:

  • Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl: Baylor vs Mississippi State
  • Cheez It Bowl: TCU vs Florida State
  • Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs USC

Then there were the New Year Six (NY6) Bowl games. The Longhorns played in the Valero Alamo Bowl a season ago but this time around they are projected to play in one of the six premier bowl games to take place as part of the NY6 even though their game would be played on December 30th.

According to Bill Bender, the Longhorns would stay home in Texas and participate in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. Their opponent would be one that they have never played.

The Longhorns would play the Boise State Broncos based on the latest projections. The Longhorns have never played the Broncos. For Texas this would mark the first time playing in the Cotton Bowl Classic since 2003. That year the Longhorns defeated the LSU Tigers 35-20 in the Cotton Bowl Stadium on the Texas Fairgrounds.

The Longhorns very first Cotton Bowl came in 1943, it was also their first ever bowl game. They defeated the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets 14-7. A return to the Cotton Bowl Classic should give you a relatively good idea of how the expectation level are for Texas. Likely would need to be the runner up in the conference to receive that bowl bid.

The remaining bowl projection has the Oklahoma Sooners making the College Football Playoffs once again only to get bounced in round one by the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

 

Pre-draft stat projections for 2020 Chiefs offense

We’re taking a shot at projecting the Chiefs’ offensive statistics in 2020 ahead of the NFL Draft.

As a part of my personal quest to become the greatest fantasy football player alive, I have spent most of the coronavirus quarantine making projections for every offensive skill-position player in the NFL. Yes, it is a painstaking process, but it pays off.

Let me explain my methodology for creating these projections. First, I assess what a particular offense did in 2019 as a whole, from a thousand-foot view. How many total plays did they run? Of those, how many rushes and how many pass plays were called? How many yards per play did each gain? How many plays per game did they average? It is safe to project a team’s overall numbers in these areas to fall fairly close to those of the previous season, as play-callers are generally consistent in how they call games.

However, a change in coaching staff or in player personnel typically means changes are coming. If a team has a new offensive coaching staff, we must dig into the history of those coaches or play-callers to see what we can discover about how they are likely to mix pass and run plays, or what their pace of play will likely look like. Likewise, if a team signed new players or cut other players, we need to look at what is most likely to happen with the new personnel, based on the history of that particular offense.

Starting broadly, from a team perspective, and then zooming into particular players and what they are likely to do within those overall numbers, is the key to making accurate projections. If you start throwing out numbers outside of the overall team context, it is simply blind luck if you are accurate.

Luckily for Chiefs fans, there have been no major changes for 2020. They have their coaching staff back intact, which is quite rare on the heels of a Super Bowl championship. And they have their players back as well, which is equally as remarkable in today’s transient NFL. Therefore, the Chiefs are one of the easier teams to project for 2020. Still, no two seasons are going to go the exact same way.

For example, I projected all of the offensive weapons for the Chiefs to play a full 16 games. That certainly won’t happen, but it’s easier to project for this since we have no idea who might get injured.

Let’s dive into the offense one position at a time and explore what I believe is most likely to happen in 2020.

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ESPN analyst projects 2020 fantasy football stats for individual Saints players

The New Orleans Saints have the NFL’s best projected win total from one ESPN analyst, buoyed by a few standout fantasy football performances

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Few teams have as high of expectations as the New Orleans Saints do in 2020. Having come so-close to a Super Bowl berth in each of the last three years and with Drew Brees weighing post-retirement job offers from television networks, this might be their final shot at winning it all with No. 9 directing the offense from under center (his two-year contract isn’t what it appears on the surface).

And the Saints will be a big focus of the fantasy football community so long as Brees is running the show. That’s reflected in the latest projections from ESPN’s Mike Clay, who estimates individual stats for each team every year. On Thursday, he released his updated look at the Saints.

Clay anticipates another good-but-not-great year from Brees, finishing at a hair under 4,100 yards with a nice score-to-turnover ratio with 31 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. While he didn’t specify whether Taysom Hill or another quarterback would fill in for Brees during a game, he does expect an unremarkable performance during what’s likely mop-up duty in a meaningless regular season finale.

On the ground, Clay isn’t betting on a big increase in touches for veteran running back Latavius Murray (with 145 carries for 602 yards and five touchdowns) against the all-star starter, Alvin Kamara (who has 191 attempts for 862 yards and seven touchdown runs). But as we saw last year, Clay anticipates a larger discrepancy through the air with 78 receptions for Kamara and just 26 catches for Murray.

However, the gap between Michael Thomas, the Saints’ number-one receiver, and the free agent slotted in at the number-two spot, Emmanuel Sanders, is not nearly as start as last year’s gap between Thomas and the runner-up (Ted Ginn). In 2020, Clay expects Thomas to again draw 150-plus targets, catching 116 of them (for 1,343 yards). But this year he’ll have better help in Sanders and his 56 receptions (for 737 yards). Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the group with a meager 27 catches.

The contributions from the tight ends can’t be overlooked. Clay anticipates Jared Cook to reel in 46 of his 70 targets for 653 yards and seven touchdown scores, with Josh Hill and Taysom Hill combining for another 34 catches. However, Cook should beat those expectations with more time spent catching passes from Drew Brees than Teddy Bridgewater.

On defense, edge rushers Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport are expected to lead the team in sacks (11 for Jordan, 6.5 for Davenport) while Sheldon Rankins (593 snaps), David Onyemata (532), and Malcom Brown (409) dominate playing-time in the middle of the line.

Linebacker Demario Davis should have another productive year (Clay estimates 941 snaps resulting in 113 tackles), with Alex Anzalone (481 snaps, 61 tackles), Kiko Alonso (409, 51), and Craig Robertson (379, 43) platooning next to him. Lengthy injury histories for Anzalone and Alonso could forecast more playing-time for Robertson, barring a late-offseason addition through the draft or free agency.

The secondary appears set with Clay anticipating Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams leading the team in snaps played (972 each), and Malcolm Jenkins (962) and Janoris Jenkins (870) not far behind. C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s role is yet to be determined, but for now Clay projects him to play more often at cornerback, ranking fourth on the depth chart behind Lattimore, Jenkins, and P.J. Williams. However, Gardner-Johnson should do that and also place higher in the pecking-order at safety than D.J. Swearinger.

As for their win probability: Clay’s projections have the Saints winning 50% or more of their games in every contest on their schedule. Their toughest games are road trips against the Philadelphia Eagles (55%), Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56%), the Atlanta Falcons (61%), the Detroit Lions (62%), and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (63%). That all shakes out into an NFL-best projection of 11.3 wins.

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Projecting new contracts for prominent Saints free agents

Big-time New Orleans Saints free agents like Teddy Bridgewater, Vonn Bell, Andrus Peat, and David Onyemata will soon test the open market.

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The NFL’s legal tampering window is just days away from opening, with pending free agents around the league eligible to hear offers from other teams. That includes 20-plus players from the New Orleans Saints; we took a crack at identifying possible suitors for some of their higher-profile free agents, and made an educated guess at who might stay or leave for new opportunities.

But how much might some of these free agents earn on the open market? Here is what we came up with for four different candidates, leaning on the

Teddy Bridgewater

To estimate how much Bridgewater may earn on the open market, we started with looks at what similar players have signed for in the past. Backups-turned-starters like Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett each received bumps in pay that averaged more than $27 million per year, while Super Bowl LII hero Nick Foles saw his potential salary rise to $23 million as Carson Wentz’s backup; Foles later agreed to a free agent contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars that has him on the books for $22 million per year.

So our educated guess at Bridgewater’s ceiling remains the same as what we suggested back in October. If interested teams seriously view him as a starting franchise quarterback, he should command north of $25 million per year. But don’t be surprised if the glut of highly-drafted lame ducks around the league, like Mitchell Trubisky, depress Bridgewater’s market a bit. His market could top out around $20 million annually.

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Supernova: Cowboys, NFL top salaries set to explode over next decade

It’s. About. To. Go. Down. Or up. The NFL is working on a new CBA, but the TV deal negotiations are going to have just as big an impact.

It takes two to tango. Last February, I penned an article saying the Dallas Cowboys would be wise to pony up $203 million in a new deal for quarterback Dak Prescott. Over the seven yearsof the proposed deal, it worked out to an average salary of $29 million per season, which would have made him the second-highest paid player in the league at the time. Projections at the time were calling for Prescott to earn, $22 million or so. A outlier here or there said $26 million. $29 million was a huge leap at the time.

While the supporting evidence was meticulously prepared, there was a large contingent of comments (OK, mostly on Facebook) which scoffed and panned the idea as ludicrous. One year later, Prescott ascended as his first-three-year stats predicted and the market continued to explode to the point $29 million a season would now be a monumentally huge coup for the Cowboys. The annual salary conversation is now in the $33 million to $36 million range thanks to new deals for Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz before last season even began.

Most think new deals coming for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will leave these recent deals in the dust, and they will, but for more reasons than most realize. The NFL salary scale is likely about to take NBA style leaps.

Reports have the 2020 salary cap at close to $200 million. That’s almost a $12 million increase from what it was in 2019. Over the last six years, the salary cap has jumped by at least $10 million every season. And those gains are about to be made to look minuscule.

The NFL is desperately trying to get a new CBA agreed to by the players. The current one doesn’t expire until the end of the season, but labor peace is certainly in the best interest of the league.

Strategically, the new television deals will be negotiated to begin the 2022 season, a full calendar year after the new CBA deadline. This is for an obvious reason.

Over the course of the current CBA, the salary cap rose 66.7% from 2011 to 2020.

Year

Maximum team salary
2020 $200 million (projected)
2019 $188.2 million
2018 $177.2 million
2017 $167.00 million
2016 $155.27 million
2015 $143.28 million
2014 $133 million
2013 $123 million
2012 $120.6 million
2011 $120 million

The last TV deal, signed in December 2011 for $27 billion, was done less than six months after the current CBA was agreed upon. It was a 60% increase from the previous agreement.

TV deals, not stadium tickets and concessions (that they make a killing off of already) is what drives the cash cow of sports. Live sports is the one reason people still tune in across the country, giving sports league the latitude to command ransoms for the rights to broadcast them.

Look at the important points from the new CBA. A 17th game, two additional playoff games. These are done so that they can charge even more exorbitant prices for the TV packages of course. It’s good business.

Similar growth would put the next deal at around $43.2 billion, and that’s without the proposed 16 additional regular season games and two additional post-season contests. At least.

What it will do to the salary cap is something the NFL fandom isn’t prepared for.

It’s going to make all of these arguments about whether or not the Cowboys should pay Prescott $33 million or $36 million look silly in retrospect.

In October 2014, the NBA signed a new nine-year, $24 billion TV deal with ESPN and TNT.

Here’s a look at the top-5 NBA salaries for the 2014-2015 season.

  1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers, $23.5 million
  2. Joe Johnson, Nets, $23.2 million
  3. Carmelo Anthony, Kicks, $22.5 million
  4. Dwight Howard, Rockets, $21.4 million
  5. Chris Bosh, Heat, $20.6 million

Here’s a look at the top-5 NBA salaries for the 2019-2020 season, just five years into the new TV deal.

  1. Steph Curry, Warriors, $40.2 million
  2. Chris Paul, Thunder, $38.5 million
  3. Russell Westbrook, Rockets, $38.5 million
  4. John Wall, Wizards, $38.1 million
  5. Kevin Durant, Nets, $38.1 million

The top base salary in the NBA rose 71% in five years because of the flood from new TV revenue. Bryant’s league-leading salary from 2014-2015 would rank No. 47 today. There are now 162 players in the NBA making at least $8 million a season, compared to 80 in 2014; more than double.

The same thing is about to go down in the NFL.

With similar growth, we could be looking Trevor Lawrence or some 2021 pick commanding an average salary between $50 million to $60 million a season once they are eligible to renegotiate their rookie deal.

Savvy agents know what is about to go down; they are as in tune as anyone with the financial forecasts for the league that continuously dominates the Nielsen ratings like no other (link). There was a reason why Prescott signed on with CAA’s Todd France in advance of working on his next agreement, after being woefully underpaid for his rookie contract and having no recourse catch up.

The Cowboys, probably more than any other organization, have known where this thing is headed. There’s a reason they want to lock Prescott in for six-to-seven years. There’s a reason Prescott wants multiple millions more in average salary for a long deal as opposed to one for only four years.

NFL salaries are likely going to explode over the next decade.

The league’s proposal of the new league minimums hints at this, for anyone reading between the lines.

Those new numbers are eye candy compared to the current $15,000, year-by-year increases to the minimums, intended to convince the rank and file of the NFL to ratify the CBA, but the 60% of the league that make the minimum are going to be left woefully behind by the high pedigree players who sign their deals in 2023 and beyond. The gap between each team’s four or five star players and the other 50 players on the roster is going to grow larger as teams will continue to have a large percentage of their rosters on rookie deals.

For instance, in 2020 under the current CBA the highest-paid player (Wilson, for now) will make 42.7 times as much as a 4-to-6 year veteran on the minimum salary.

If the cap makes the projected growth detailed above and a QB is making $60 million a year, which again is based on projections without adding the extra games, they will be making 51.3 times as much as the 4-to-6 year vet on the minimum.

I talk about it all the time, but the league is always one up on the players. Somehow, every CBA they get away with not counting all of the revenue in the calculations they hysterically title “all revenue”. The league skims about 10% of their actual intake off the top before even giving the players their less than 50%. Andrew Brandt goes into beautiful detail on the myriad of ways the players get screwed over.

Whether or not they show the fortitude to demand bigger pieces of the pie will come to light in the next days, weeks or months.

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247Sports Bowl Projections: Texas Back Into the New Year’s Six

247Sports has given their bowl projections before spring ball has begun and they have Texas as one of the at-large teams in the Big 12.

In what seems to be a yearly tradition surrounding the Texas program, expectations are once again extremely high going into the 2020 season. Not only are the Longhorns expected the compete for the Big 12 championship, but they are expected to play in one of college football’s most pristine bowl games, one of the New Year’s Six bowl games.

Usually, for the Big 12, that game is the Sugar Bowl, as the best team in the Big 12 and SEC face off against each other in New Orleans every year on New Year’s Day. However, for the upcoming season, the Sugar Bowl is one of the playoff venues this year, so Big 12 teams will be considered at large bids.

247Sports has given their bowl projections before spring ball has begun and they have Texas as one of those at-large teams in the conference. The projection also has the Longhorns playing their bowl game in the state of Texas, facing off against Boise State in the Cotton Bowl, held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

If the two teams were to face off, it would be the first time the programs ever faced each other in football. While they may be stuck in a non-power five conference, the Broncos are one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Since 2000, they have had 16 seasons of 10 or more wins, including a 3-0 record in BCS /New Year’s Six Bowl games.

Both Texas and Boise State have only been to one NY6 bowl game since its rebranding in 2014. Each has a 1-0 record as the Broncos defeated Arizona in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl and the Longhorns upset Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl.

As for the rest of the Big 12, Oklahoma is the only other team projected in an NY6 game, facing off against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. 247Sports does not project a team from the Big 12 to make the playoff, instead having two SEC teams (Alabama and Florida) playing Clemson and Ohio State respectively.

If the Longhorns can make a quality bowl game like the Cotton Bowl, it would be considered a successful season. While Boise State may not be the most flashy opponent to face, playing another game within the state of Texas would create an amazing atmosphere for another big-time bowl game under Tom Herman.

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Notre Dame Football: Ranking Potential Bowl Game Opponents

Finally the biggest draw in the Big XII comes up on our breakdown.  Is Texas back?

In one of the worst kept secrets in college football at this point, we sit and wait to act surprised when on Sunday we will all officially find out that No. 15 Notre Dame will be headed to play a Big XII opponent in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.

That means a trip to Orlando but who the Irish play in the game is still very much up in the air for multiple different reasons.

For one – Oklahoma and Baylor both right now sit at six and seven in the College Football Playoff rankings respectively, with both still being very much alive for a potential New Year’s Six Bowl game berth if they are to fall in Saturday’s conference championship.

That’s important because it would change the Alamo automatically getting whoever loses and instead, give the bowl the chance to pick which of the 5-4 Big XII teams it would like, as Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Texas all finished in a tie for third place after all going 5-4 in conference play.

It got me wondering though – who should Notre Dame fans be rooting for to play?

I get that some Irish fans will have a family or friend that is connected to one of the schools that will make that their obvious choice, but for everyone who doesn’t, what are you rooting for to happen?

A quick look at the potential match-ups, one at a time.

Kansas State

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The Cowboys-Patriots game is set to be the most-watched regular season game of the year

If it seems like there are the same teams in primetime games, that’s probably because it’s true. Certain teams just draw more viewers whether it’s because of market size, star power, or a national following. That’s why we get the Giants on Sunday …

If it seems like there are the same teams in primetime games, that’s probably because it’s true. Certain teams just draw more viewers whether it’s because of market size, star power, or a national following. That’s why we get the Giants on Sunday Night Football even though they haven’t been a good football team for a few years now. It’s why the Packers and Steelers are often scheduled at marquee teams. This Sunday there are two late games. There’s the Titans-Jaguars AFC South shown and there’s the Cowboys traveling to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. Take on guess on which game will be more watched.

As long as the Cowboys-Patriots matchup remains close, it should generate some amazing ratings. The Cowboys are one of — if not the — most popular football team in the country. They have fans outside of Dallas who have probably never even stepped foot in Texas. They are “America’s Team.”

The Patriots are the team of the current century — not just the team of the decade. They have one of the greatest coaches of all time. They have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. They are the evil empire that opposing fans hate — and are jealous of — because of how much they win.

Both teams are from major markets. Both have a national following. They generate great viewership numbers when they don’t play each other.

So Fox should be excited. The NFL should be excited. Ratings will be through the roof. Now if they could only figure out a way to have these two teams meet in the Super Bowl.

Saints get a new franchise quarterback in four-round 2020 mock draft

The New Orleans Saints improved by picking QB Jalen Hurts, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and LB Chazz Surratt in the latest 2020 NFL mock draft.

The 2020 NFL Draft is months away, but it’s never too soon to speculate about who the New Orleans Saints could end up picking. Especially with the college football season hurtling towards bowl game season. We aren’t going for accuracy here; think of this exercise as a preview for this weekend’s games

We used The Draft Network’s Mock Draft Machine to accurately simulate a selections before and after each of the Saints’ picks.

Round 1, Pick 30: QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

Watch him next vs. TCU Saturday, Nov. 23 at 8 p.m. ET on FOX

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, Hurts is seen as a fringe first-round quarterback prospect, but his stock should rise once the pre-draft process kicks off in the spring just like it has for other quarterbacks. And expect Saints coach Sean Payton to be intrigued by Hurts’ abilities. Payton has been a fan of similar prospects like Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Carson Wentz and Andrew Luck, all of whom featured rare arm strength along with the ability to make plays with their legs.

Hurts has made huge strides under Sooners coach Lincoln Riley after transferring from Alabama, leading Oklahoma in both passing yards (3,039) and rushing yards (983) while scoring a combined 43 touchdowns in 10 games (28 as a passer, 15 as a runner). He’s protected the ball well by throwing just five interceptions and fumbling six times.

With Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, and Taysom Hill each due to receive new contracts after this season, the Saints are probably going to need a new face at quarterback. It’s tough to see Bridgewater remaining in New Orleans after going undefeated in his five-game stint as the starter and with so many quarterback-needy teams around the league. Whether Hurts, who will be a 21-year-old rookie, sits behind Brees for a year or competes with Hill to start, he’s the ideal prospect to bring under Payton’s tutelage.

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