Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins odds predictions pick betting line spread

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) and Miami Marlins (0-1) meet for the 2nd game of a 4-game series Friday with 1st pitch from loanDepot Park set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pittsburgh leads 1-0

The Pirates picked up a 6-5 win in 12 innings as +112 road underdogs Thursday to spoil Miami’s home opener. The Pirates scored 3 runs in the the 7th and 8th innings to tie the game at 5. Pittsburgh never led until 2B Jared Triolo hit an RBI single in the 12th.

LHP Jesus Luzardo started for the Marlins and allowed 2 H, 2 ER with 2 BB and 8 K in 5 IP. The Marlins scored 5 runs in the 1st 5 innings, but failed to score again and had only 1 hit after the 5th inning.

Pirates at Marlins projected starters

LHP Martín Pérez vs. LHP A.J. Puk

Perez (10-4, 4.45 ERA) made 20 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2023. He had a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 141 2/3 IP as a member of the Texas Rangers.

2023 road splits: 5-3, 5.18 ERA (73 IP, 42 ER), 26 BB, 43 K in 11 road starts, 18 total road appearances
2023 vs. Miami: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 1 K in 1 relief appearance, a 6-0 home win for the Rangers on Aug. 6
Career vs. Marlins: 1-1, 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 2 BB, 8 K through 2 starts and 1 relief appearance

Puk (7-5, 3.97 ERA) made 58 relief appearances in 2023. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 2.06 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 56 2/3 IP.

2023 home splits: 4-3, 5.29 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 9 BB, 51 K across 34 relief appearances
2023 vs. Pirates: 1-1, 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0 BB, 4 K in 4 relief appearances
Career vs. Pittsburgh: 8-6, 5.14 ERA (75 IP, 43 ER), 78 H, 97 K through 74 relief appearances

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Pirates at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Marlins -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 3, Pirates 2

Moneyline

BET MARLINS (-125).

Pittsburgh has not won back-to-back games in Miami since July of 2022, so I don’t expect the Pirates to pick up the win here. The favorite has also won 5 of the last 6 matchups between these squads.

This is a risky bet as it is hard for me to trust Puk, who is making his 1st career start after 142 games in relief, over a seasoned starting pitcher like Perez. However, Pittsburgh used a lot of its bullpen in Thursday’s win, so I like Miami to get the win here.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like Pittsburgh to cover here as a +1.5 (-200) road underdog, especially because I expect the Marlins to have trouble hitting against Perez and I have questions about Puk for Miami, but the Pirates are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).

The Under has also hit in 5 of the last 7 Pittsburgh-Miami matchups overall and is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Under is also 3-1 in Miami’s last 4 wins vs. Pittsburgh. For Miami, the Under is 5-1-1 in its last 7 dating back to last season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins open their seasons with the 1st game of a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 5-2 last season

The Pirates finished 2023 with a record of 76-86, a 14-game improvement from 2022 and their best finish since 2018. There’s excitement in Pittsburgh around the return of SS Oneil Cruz to the lineup after missing almost all of 2023. They bolstered their rotation with the addition of veteran left-handers Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales.

BetMGM Sportsbook has their win total Over/Under set at 75.5, which will be a challenge in their division.

The Marlins behind new manager Skip Schumaker surprised the baseball world by finishing over .500 for the 1st time in 13 seasons in 2023. That led to Skip winning the 2023 NL Manager of the Year. Miami made the playoffs as a Wild Card team but lost to the Philadelphia Phillies.

BetMGM Sportsbook has their win total Over/Under set at 77.5, which begs the question: Can the Marlins take another step forward in 2024?

Pirates at Marlins projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Keller (13-9, 4.21 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He had a 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 194 1/3 innings.

2023 road stats: 6-6, 5.35 ERA (104 1/3 IP, 62 ER), .275 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 18 starts
2023 vs. Marlins: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 6-4 road loss June 22, 2023
Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 2.66 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 5 starts

Luzardo (10-10, 3.58 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 178 2/3 innings.

2023 home stats: 5-4, 2.99 ERA (108 1/3 IP, 36 ER) in 19 starts
Career vs. Pirates: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 1 start, a 3-1 home loss June 23, 2023

Pirates at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Pirates 2

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Marlins (-135) to win on Opening Day, but I’d rather take the plus odds on the run line than eat the -135 juice on the moneyline.

Run line/Against the spread

BET MARLINS -1.5 (+155).

Luzardo owned the Pirates in his 1st outing against them last season, striking out 9 over 7 innings of work. Pittsburgh struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2023, batting just .243 as a team.

Miami was a really good team at home last season, finishing 11 games over .500 at loanDepot park.

Keller was also was far better at home than he was on the road.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

These teams have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matchups.

The Marlins finished 75-81-5 to the Over last season. That is due in large part to their stadium size. Only 167 home runs were hit at loanDepot park in 2023, the 5th-fewest in MLB.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (35-41) will conclude a 4-game series against the Miami Marlins (44-34) on Sunday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-1

After snapping a 10-game losing streak on Friday with a 3-1 win, the Pirates lost 4-3 to the Marlins in 11 innings on Saturday. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of its last 12 games and 14 of its last 17 and has fallen to 4th place in the NL Central.

Marlins 3B Jon Berti hit a walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th inning to win Saturday’s game. Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 games and is 6 games behind the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the NL East.

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Pirates at Marlins projected starters

RHP Johan Oviedo vs. RHP Eury Perez

Oviedo (3-7, 4.30 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 81 2/3 innings.

Has walked 2 or more batters in 11 of his 15 starts
Hasn’t been credited with a win since in 7 starts since May 19

Perez (4-1, 1.54 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 41 innings.

Has allowed 1 combined ER in his last 5 starts
Has tallied 6 or more K’s in 5 of his 8 starts

Pirates at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Marlins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-150) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Pirates 3

Moneyline

While the Marlins have been playing well lately and Perez has been dominant in recent starts, PASS on betting on Miami at the current odds (-165). If you can get the Marlins at -160 or better, then I’d feel comfortable taking their moneyline.

Run line/Against the spread

MARLINS -1.5 (+125) has decent value with Oviedo struggling this season and Perez limiting damage for Miami. The Pirates have also lost by multiple runs in 7 of their last 9 losses.

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Over/Under

OVER 7 (-125) is how I’d wager on the run total with the Marlins likely having success against Oviedo. With it being such a low total, it’s hard not to take the Over despite Perez being poised for another stellar outing for Miami.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-40) and Miami Marlins (43-33) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set Friday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 1-0

The Pirates lost 6-4 as +149 underdogs in the series opener on Thursday. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight contests and is 4th in the NL Central, 5 1/2 games behind the division-leading Cincinnati Reds.

The Marlins closed as -163 favorites in Thursday’s win. Miami has won 18 of its last 25 games and is 6 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East.

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Pirates at Marlins projected starters

RHP Luis L. Ortiz vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo

Ortiz (1-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his 8th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-2 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
Has a 4.24 ERA in June across 4 starts
First career start vs. Marlins

Luzardo (6-5, 4.09 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 83 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 win at Washington Nationals Sunday
Has a 5.24 ERA in June across 4 starts
First career start vs. Pirates

Pirates at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Marlins -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-135) | Marlins -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Pirates 2

Moneyline

The Marlins (-190) should hand Pittsburgh its 11th straight loss, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the ML when Miami should win by multiple runs. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Miami has won 4 straight games vs. teams with a losing record and its last 4 wins have all been by multiple runs. Pittsburgh has lost its last 5 games vs. left-handed starters and 15 of its last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

BET MARLINS -1.5 (+110).

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Over/Under

Pittsburgh is 28th in runs per game over the last 3 contests (2.33) and the Under has hit in 4 of its last 5 matchups. The Under is also 6-2 in Miami’s last 8 games after scoring 5 or more runs in its previous contest.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (36-50) and Miami Marlins (41-43) meet Monday to lift the lid on a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET . Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting. Pittsburgh took 5-of-7 games from Miami in 2021.

A Pirates club that has struggled on the road (16-27) is 4-2 over its last 6 games away from PNC Park. Pittsburgh took 2-of-3 contests from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend.

The Marlins are back at home after a 2-2 trip at the New York Mets. Miami is 8-3 across its last 11 games with its pitching staff leading the way. Marlins hurlers have notched a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over that stretch.

Pirates at Marlins projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Keller (2-6, 5.21 ERA) has appeared in 16 games overall and 14 as a starter. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 76 IP.

Got off to a rocky start this season but owns a 4.15 ERA over his last 9 starts — a stretch that includes more than a few turns against top-10 offensive clubs.
Has been hurt by a .342 batting average on balls in play.

Rogers (4-7, 5.57 ERA) has registered a 1.57 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 72 2/3 IP across 16 starts.

Hasn’t logged more than 5 IP in a start since May 14.
Has compiled a 6.47 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last 9 starts.
Has struggled mightily at home with a 7.98 ERA through 29 1/3 IP.

Pirates at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:13 a.m. ET.

Money line: Pirates +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Marlins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+133)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Pirates 2

Money line

Pittsburgh’s .658 OPS against southpaws ranks 4th worst in the league. Keller is a ground-ball pitcher and Miami sports above-average figures against such types.

The Marlins also have batting splits tilting a good deal toward right-handers and home games.

However, this price on the home 9 is too aggressive, Consider a line watch and a play on Miami at -155 or better. PASS for now.

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Run line/Against the spread

MIAMI -1.5 (+133) is the best side offered up in this one. Consider a partial-unit play, though.

Over/Under

Both clubs have sub-.660 OPS figures so far this month. Both starters have been dinged by higher-than-average hit rates on balls in play.

BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-110) in Miami’s home-run-suppressant home yard.

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