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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins open their seasons with the 1st game of a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 5-2 last season
The Pirates finished 2023 with a record of 76-86, a 14-game improvement from 2022 and their best finish since 2018. There’s excitement in Pittsburgh around the return of SS Oneil Cruz to the lineup after missing almost all of 2023. They bolstered their rotation with the addition of veteran left-handers Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales.
BetMGM Sportsbook has their win total Over/Under set at 75.5, which will be a challenge in their division.
The Marlins behind new manager Skip Schumaker surprised the baseball world by finishing over .500 for the 1st time in 13 seasons in 2023. That led to Skip winning the 2023 NL Manager of the Year. Miami made the playoffs as a Wild Card team but lost to the Philadelphia Phillies.
BetMGM Sportsbook has their win total Over/Under set at 77.5, which begs the question: Can the Marlins take another step forward in 2024?
Pirates at Marlins projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Keller (13-9, 4.21 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He had a 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 194 1/3 innings.
- 2023 road stats: 6-6, 5.35 ERA (104 1/3 IP, 62 ER), .275 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 18 starts
- 2023 vs. Marlins: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 6-4 road loss June 22, 2023
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 2.66 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 5 starts
Luzardo (10-10, 3.58 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 178 2/3 innings.
- 2023 home stats: 5-4, 2.99 ERA (108 1/3 IP, 36 ER) in 19 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 1 start, a 3-1 home loss June 23, 2023
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Pirates at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Pirates 2
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Marlins (-135) to win on Opening Day, but I’d rather take the plus odds on the run line than eat the -135 juice on the moneyline.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARLINS -1.5 (+155).
Luzardo owned the Pirates in his 1st outing against them last season, striking out 9 over 7 innings of work. Pittsburgh struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2023, batting just .243 as a team.
Miami was a really good team at home last season, finishing 11 games over .500 at loanDepot park.
Keller was also was far better at home than he was on the road.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).
These teams have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matchups.
The Marlins finished 75-81-5 to the Over last season. That is due in large part to their stadium size. Only 167 home runs were hit at loanDepot park in 2023, the 5th-fewest in MLB.
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